Player Discussion: Ehlers

[KingBogo]

Not even after a career year? A year when the cap takes a big jump up? Recency counts. You need to consider what the player is likely to get on the UFA market. Scheif and Helle didn't play out their last years, signing just before their last season started. Ehlers is half way through that last season. UFA is getting very close.

Helle and Scheif ended up signing team friendly contracts. I don't think you can then demand everyone else do the same.

At least use cap%. Scheif and Helle got 9.7%. If the cap goes up ~5% to 92.5 that would be 8.97 mil. If it goes up to 94 mil it would be 9.118.

I don't see it happening either. Ehlers have never put up the numbers to get that. He also has a game that relies a lot on speed, and with his injury history he might be seen as a risk to sign long term into his mid 30's.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think the new cap sites properly calculate the player's cap hit at time of signing like CapFriendly used to, which was handy for doing apples-to-apples comparisons, but anyway...

Connor is 10th in NHL goal scoring over the last 5 years. 18th in total points.

Current cap hits for forwards in the 10-20 range are between $9.5M and $10.5M. Relative to the cap at the time they were signed, the cap hit percentages are between 11.5% and 13.3%.

So Connor's fair market value is $10.6M to $12.3M if the cap is $92.5M. $11M seems pretty reasonable on the open market.

Wheeler has the record for highest cap hit percentage with 10.4%. He was 8th in the NHL in total points over the 5 years prior to signing (22nd in goals scored). So that might be closer to the Jets internal limit. So $9.6Mx8? Maybe make it an even $10M?

In Connor's case we need to have the estimated cap for another year later. That 92.5 number applies to players who are pending UFAs now. I expect KC to sign next off-season before his UFA season starts. But I also expect his agent will be using the estimated cap for the season the contract starts. IDK, maybe they just go by the cap at the time of signing.

Just checked, Cap Wages says 9.7% for Scheif and Helle. Their 8.5 mil that was signed over a year ago comes to 9.66% of this years 88 mil cap. So they are using the numbers for when the contract came into effect, rounded up a bit.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think if Ehlers wanted out he would have been traded in the offseason. My guess is there were some uncertainties with injuries and all sides agreed to give Nic the first half of the season to cement his value. I’ve argued many times I expect Ehlers to re-sign well before the TDL.

I like your optimism, but at what date do you stop expecting him to sign? Or do you remain optimistic until he actually signs elsewhere?

 

[KingBogo]

In Connor's case we need to have the estimated cap for another year later. That 92.5 number applies to players who are pending UFAs now. I expect KC to sign next off-season before his UFA season starts. But I also expect his agent will be using the estimated cap for the season the contract starts. IDK, maybe they just go by the cap at the time of signing.

Just checked, Cap Wages says 9.7% for Scheif and Helle. Their 8.5 mil that was signed over a year ago comes to 9.66% of this years 88 mil cap. So they are using the numbers for when the contract came into effect, rounded up a bit.

But going just by cap %, makes the assumption the organization believes all those players hold equal value, which I don't believe is the case.

I like your optimism, but at what date do you stop expecting him to sign? Or do you remain optimistic until he actually signs elsewhere?

Chevy has never let a player as important as Ehlers walk yet.

 

[Adam da bomb]

But going just by cap %, makes the assumption the organization believes all those players hold equal value, which I don't believe is the case.


Chevy has never let a player as important as Ehlers walk yet.

Helly is the most valuable, but, goalies don’t get top contracts shester and bob might be changing that.

 

[KingBogo]

Helly is the most valuable, but, goalies don’t get top contracts shester and bob might be changing that.

Price also got paid, but agreed they get a little under valued, but not so much that Chevy will pay Ehlers more.

 

[Buffdog]

I think Chevy pushes hard to get Connor signed long term this summer.

Connor loves to bowhunt and go icefishing (as much as he reasonably can). He doesn't seem like the type of guy to get lured away by a bustling metropolis.

I can see him wanting to stick around... which is a huge part of these things. I think Pionk is another guy who genuinely likes both his teammates and the city... for that reason alone, I think he'll extend

I'm less sure about Nik

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Let someone else make that mistake.

I don't think paying Ehlers would be a mistake but we haven't been discussing term here too much. Nik is approaching 29. I don't go more than 5 years and even there I expect it to be bad at the end. Maybe even a buyout of the last year.

So there is another aspect of competing with the UFA market. Have to look at the total value of the contract.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Price also got paid, but agreed they get a little under valued, but not so much that Chevy will pay Ehlers more.

It helps the little core are good friends. Kc, Helly, schief, I’m sure berg fits in there well because of the Michigan connection.

Connor loves to bowhunt and go icefishing (as much as he reasonably can). He doesn't seem like the type of guy to get lured away by a bustling metropolis.

I can see him wanting to stick around... which is a huge part of these things. I think Pionk is another guy who genuinely likes both his teammates and the city... for that reason alone, I think he'll extend

I'm less sure about Nik

Have we ever found out what zNik’s hobbies are?

 

[DRW204]

I don't think paying Ehlers would be a mistake but we haven't been discussing term here too much. Nik is approaching 29. I don't go more than 5 years and even there I expect it to be bad at the end. Maybe even a buyout of the last year.

So there is another aspect of competing with the UFA market. Have to look at the total value of the contract.

i agree on 5 years for ehlers. in general NHL contracts are just way to long, esp for non elite or generational players in my view.
i just don't think GMs really give a shit as they know they will likely have to eat the final couple years. scheifele for example is signed unitl he's 38, is he really going to be worth 8.5m at 35/36 onward? idk

 

[KingBogo]

I don't think paying Ehlers would be a mistake but we haven't been discussing term here too much. Nik is approaching 29. I don't go more than 5 years and even there I expect it to be bad at the end. Maybe even a buyout of the last year.

So there is another aspect of competing with the UFA market. Have to look at the total value of the contract.

5 years never gets it done. He can get 7 years on the open market, so that is what Chevy ultimately has to work with. Part of the reason you try to keep the AAV down, to account for the over paid years at the backend of the contract.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

But going just by cap %, makes the assumption the organization believes all those players hold equal value, which I don't believe is the case.


Chevy has never let a player as important as Ehlers walk yet.

So, give him 9.5%.

You don't want to pay him according to what he could get as a UFA because ... Scheifele ... (mumble) .. Helle, but you say Chevy won't let him walk. If he wants to get paid Chevy has to pick one or the other.

Market value is not determined by what other Jets players are getting. As a less desirable market Wpg needs to be even more aware of that bigger market than most other teams.

 

[Gm0ney]

But, we haven’t seen it without the other guys to compare because they stay healthy, but, if you think it would look just as good without Vilardi in front of net or Connor as the sniper, if you think the pp would have been just as good without them don’t know what to tell you.

They've stayed healthy up to this point, knock on wood!

And I agreed that the power play is the sum of its parts - but Ehlers really looks like the straw that's stirring the drink.

In Connor's case we need to have the estimated cap for another year later. That 92.5 number applies to players who are pending UFAs now. I expect KC to sign next off-season before his UFA season starts. But I also expect his agent will be using the estimated cap for the season the contract starts. IDK, maybe they just go by the cap at the time of signing.

Just checked, Cap Wages says 9.7% for Scheif and Helle. Their 8.5 mil that was signed over a year ago comes to 9.66% of this years 88 mil cap. So they are using the numbers for when the contract came into effect, rounded up a bit.

Tavares cap percentage on Cap Wages is 12.5% but he signed when the cap was $79.5M, so his cap hit at the time of signing was 13.8%.

If we're looking ahead to 2026, Elliott Friedman said this about a month ago:

And one of the things they’re talking about is the salary cap, which is supposed to be about 92 and a half for next year. Now, when this deal was done we were in the middle of COVID, we had no idea what the world was going to look like, and there were very careful guardrails put in on the salary cap just in case things didn’t recover. Well, fortunately for the NHL revenues have been strong, they’ve been very good, they’ve out-paced the guardrails on that salary cap. So basically we have two paths to follow here.​

​

Number one is they keep the cap next year at around 92 and a half, and then there’s a huge jump the year after, in 2026-27, or what the players say they’ve kind of been told about, is the possibility that the cap moves higher next year, probably around the 95 to 97 area. Now there’s no confirmation yet as which one is going to happen, but I’m hearing that it’s definitely going to be discussed and there is some optimism that they can find a way to do it. But nothing is going to get done until it’s done. It’s definitely out there and the players have definitely been told about the possibility.​

So we could see a $95M - $97M cap next year and maybe over $100M in 2026? Or it's $92.5M next year and a big jump to $100M+ in 2026. $88M this year to $95M next is a $7M jump. Then $95M + $7M the next year means a $102M cap in 2026-27. Good lord!

I'm sure Connor's agent and the PA are going to have a pretty good read on where it's going. If Kyle wants to get paid, hitting UFA right when there's a huge jump in the cap ceiling would be perfect timing for him. Even if he wants to stay with the Jets, he's easily getting an 8-figure deal under a $100M cap.

 

[Adam da bomb]

So, give him 9.5%.

You don't want to pay him according to what he could get as a UFA because ... Scheifele ... (mumble) .. Helle, but you say Chevy won't let him walk. If he wants to get paid Chevy has to pick one or the other.

Market value is not determined by what other Jets players are getting. As a less desirable market Wpg needs to be even more aware of that bigger market than most other teams.

I wonder even if got money if he’d stay or if he wants to be the guy and on top line.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Helly is the most valuable, but, goalies don’t get top contracts shester and bob might be changing that.

Helle signs for 8.5 and then, taking effect 1 year later, a lesser goalie signs for 11.5. Helle (and Scheifele) left money on the table.

 

[Adam da bomb]

They've stayed healthy up to this point, knock on wood!

And I agreed that the power play is the sum of its parts - but Ehlers really looks like the straw that's stirring the drink.


Tavares cap percentage on Cap Wages is 12.5% but he signed when the cap was $79.5M, so his cap hit at the time of signing was 13.8%.

If we're looking ahead to 2026, Elliott Friedman said this about a month ago:

And one of the things they’re talking about is the salary cap, which is supposed to be about 92 and a half for next year. Now, when this deal was done we were in the middle of COVID, we had no idea what the world was going to look like, and there were very careful guardrails put in on the salary cap just in case things didn’t recover. Well, fortunately for the NHL revenues have been strong, they’ve been very good, they’ve out-paced the guardrails on that salary cap. So basically we have two paths to follow here.​

​

Number one is they keep the cap next year at around 92 and a half, and then there’s a huge jump the year after, in 2026-27, or what the players say they’ve kind of been told about, is the possibility that the cap moves higher next year, probably around the 95 to 97 area. Now there’s no confirmation yet as which one is going to happen, but I’m hearing that it’s definitely going to be discussed and there is some optimism that they can find a way to do it. But nothing is going to get done until it’s done. It’s definitely out there and the players have definitely been told about the possibility.​

So we could see a $95M - $97M cap next year and maybe over $100M in 2026? Or it's $92.5M next year and a big jump to $100M+ in 2026. $88M this year to $95M next is a $7M jump. Then $95M + $7M the next year means a $102M cap in 2026-27. Good lord!

I'm sure Connor's agent and the PA are going to have a pretty good read on where it's going. If Kyle wants to get paid, hitting UFA right when there's a huge jump in the cap ceiling would be perfect timing for him. Even if he wants to stay with the Jets, he's easily getting an 8-figure deal under a $100M cap.

I’ll take your word for it because hopefully we’ll never find out otherwise so if he wants to be the straw as long as they are at the top of league.

 

[KingBogo]

So, give him 9.5%.

You don't want to pay him according to what he could get as a UFA because ... Scheifele ... (mumble) .. Helle, but you say Chevy won't let him walk. If he wants to get paid Chevy has to pick one or the other.

Market value is not determined by what other Jets players are getting. As a less desirable market Wpg needs to be even more aware of that bigger market than most other teams.

Ehlers will make it up on term. My guess has been 7 X $8M = $56 M. That is $9.33 M over 6 years, it just gets spread out more. I think players care more about the end number than the AAV.

 

[Gm0ney]

Connor loves to bowhunt and go icefishing (as much as he reasonably can). He doesn't seem like the type of guy to get lured away by a bustling metropolis.

I can see him wanting to stick around... which is a huge part of these things. I think Pionk is another guy who genuinely likes both his teammates and the city... for that reason alone, I think he'll extend

I'm less sure about Nik

He could go bow hunting with the Motor City Madman himself in Michigan!

 

[Adam da bomb]

Helle signs for 8.5 and then, taking effect 1 year later, a lesser goalie signs for 11.5. Helle (and Scheifele) left money on the table.

I mean most fans of other teams wouldn’t give Helly credit he deserves till team is a success in playoffs.

 

[Gil Fisher]

I think Chevy pushes hard to get Connor signed long term this summer.

You can almost predict an $81 million deal. Will it be 7 or 8 years though?

 

[Gm0ney]

You can almost predict an $81 million deal. Will it be 7 or 8 years though?

But then we'll have to pay Perfetti $91 million...

 

[KingBogo]

You can almost predict an $81 million deal. Will it be 7 or 8 years though?

on 8 years that would give Connor a AAV of $10.125 M. I'm hoping that is enough to get it done.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

He could go bow hunting with the Motor City Madman himself in Michigan!

You beat me to that one! I had a venison joke all lined up.

 

[scelaton]

Ehlers will make it up on term. My guess has been 7 X $8M = $56 M. That is $9.33 M over 6 years, it just gets spread out more. I think players care more about the end number than the AAV.

This is close to what I think Chevy offers, but I am not sure it will be enough to keep him.

If you assume 8.5% of an estimated $95M cap, that is a little over 8M. That is the floor IF he keeps up his current play. Assuming $8.5M as the upper Jets limit (for optics, as has been discussed), there is your Jets range.

If another GM offers 9.5% of a $95M cap (roughly Scheifele/Helle cap %), ie, $9M AAV and a greater leadership role on and off the ice, he will have to decide how he wants to play out the rest of his career. The difference between $57M and $63M total earnings will not affect his life in the least, but his choice will reflect how he perceives his status in our organization, looking back and forward.

Such tough choices for a 28 year old!

 

[scelaton]

But then we'll have to pay Perfetti $91 million...

If they offer Logan Stanley $64 M I am officially leaving the boards!