Player Discussion: Ehlers

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think he’d stay for under 11 think 10.5 would keep him here

Maybe. I can't know for certain, of course.

But IMO it all hinges on him maintaining the level of play he has shown so far this year. He may not be able to sustain it. But if he can, the UFA market might pay him well over 11. The cap is expected to rise a lot in the next 2 years.

 

[Buffdog]

This year at 5v4:

	TOI	CF/60	FF/60	SF/60	GF/60	xGF/60	SCF/60
with Ehlers	76:04	104.12	81.24	59.16	12.62	8.95	59.16
w/o Ehlers	86:55	80.77	65.58	43.49	11.74	6.38	40.73
	-10:51	+23.35	+15.66	+15.67	+0.88	+2.57	+18.43

Top powerplay unit only at 5v4:

	TOI	CF/60	FF/60	SF/60	GF/60	xGF/60	SCF/60
with Ehlers	73:19	106.39	82.66	60.56	13.09	9.00	59.74
w/o Ehlers	31:46	88.73	71.74	45.31	9.44	6.85	47.19
	+42:27	+17.66	+10.92	+15.25	+3.65	+2.15	+12.55

Small sample alert, and all that...but PP1 cooks when Ehlers is out there creating stuff in the offensive zone. But as someone mentioned earlier, somewhere, the top unit is seemingly designed to take advantage of Ehlers.

One could could argue that the same thing would happen without any one of those 5 on PP1 since its a sum of it's parts. Last year things went from ugly to UGLY on the PP when Vilardi went down

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I have a very hard time believing that the Jets would pay Ehlers more than Scheifele or Hellebuyck, even with the salary cap going up next season. That puts his ceiling at around $8M. I don't think Ehlers would balk at a long-term deal at $8M if he is happy with his role and team. I think his decision about whether to re-sign with the Jets would be based more on that. However, I'm also not sure the Jets wouldn't consider moving Ehlers to fill a gap somewhere else in their roster. The one part of their prospect pool that looks fairly strong is at F / W. None are at Ehlers' level, but the Jets aren't going to get full value / impact out of Ehlers as long as he's playing a 2nd / 3rd line role.

I don't think any team can afford to limit themselves by saying we can't pay players x,y,z any more than we are paying players s & t. Contracts are signed in the environment that exists at the time they are signed. That environment keeps changing. If they are going to be limited by existing contracts that way they will at least go by cap%, not dollar numbers.

 

[Whileee]

I don't think any team can afford to limit themselves by saying we can't pay players x,y,z any more than we are paying players s & t. Contracts are signed in the environment that exists at the time they are signed. That environment keeps changing. If they are going to be limited by existing contracts that way they will at least go by cap%, not dollar numbers.

I generally agree, but in the Jets roster I can't see the Jets paying Ehlers as much or more than Hellebuyck and Scheifele, especially just one year after their contract starts.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Maybe. I can't know for certain, of course.

But IMO it all hinges on him maintaining the level of play he has shown so far this year. He may not be able to sustain it. But if he can, the UFA market might pay him well over 11. The cap is expected to rise a lot in the next 2 years.

Yep if Connor keeps up this pace he is over a 100 pts and I can’t find a guy with over a 100 earning less than 11.

 

[Adam da bomb]

One could could argue that the same thing would happen without any one of those 5 on PP1 since its a sum of it's parts. Last year things went from ugly to UGLY on the PP when Vilardi went down

Ehlers has been an equally big p part of pp as everyone else, no more and no less.

 

[Cnile]

I know I’d stay for under 11

 

[DRW204]

This year at 5v4:

	TOI	CF/60	FF/60	SF/60	GF/60	xGF/60	SCF/60
with Ehlers	76:04	104.12	81.24	59.16	12.62	8.95	59.16
w/o Ehlers	86:55	80.77	65.58	43.49	11.74	6.38	40.73
	-10:51	+23.35	+15.66	+15.67	+0.88	+2.57	+18.43

Top powerplay unit only at 5v4:

	TOI	CF/60	FF/60	SF/60	GF/60	xGF/60	SCF/60
with Ehlers	73:19	106.39	82.66	60.56	13.09	9.00	59.74
w/o Ehlers	31:46	88.73	71.74	45.31	9.44	6.85	47.19
	+42:27	+17.66	+10.92	+15.25	+3.65	+2.15	+12.55

Small sample alert, and all that...but PP1 cooks when Ehlers is out there creating stuff in the offensive zone. But as someone mentioned earlier, somewhere, the top unit is seemingly designed to take advantage of Ehlers.

yea the PP has been tremendous this year. ehlers + new coach is paying dividends. i don't think ehlers is just some passenger in it either, and this is coming from someone that generally didn't always love ehlers work on PP2. was it ehlers or system? no idea.

not really surprised that he's producing highly on it.... you'll get better individual production on the man-advantage on PP1 surrounded with studded cast vs PP2. this is such a "yeah duhh" statement, so not sure why PP time or usage is so controversial or a big gotchya for some on here. barely anyone is hitting close to PPG without high PP time.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

when the PP1 unit is composed entirely of the guys you mentioned what do you expect?
is a unit w/ a combo of ehlers, namestnikov, perfetti, pionk, or lowry going to score better than a combo of scheifele, connor, vilardi & morrissey?

this year ehlers has been on the PP1 and they've looked great. both units have actually. which leads me to believe there was an upgrade in coaching and found a good mix of player personnel.

Yes. I think the PP this year, is far more dynamic in how they're moving around. I like how they're using him on the PP, and he's capitalizing on it.

More importantly than whatever I think, what do you make of his GF/60 on the PP, over the course of his career?

I was looking at all 10 years, not just the recent list of teammates that you mentioned. Player Discussion: - Ehlers

Back in the day, do you think that Ehlers was better on the power play, than Perreault for example? Was Ehlers more sought after (age, skill level, etc)? Yes, but was he more effective on the 1st PP unit?

Who's he bumping off the 1st unit in the first half of his career. Laine as we thought of him then with the shift and all? Ehlers over KC? Ehlers over Scheifele? Ehlers over Prime Wheeler? Byfuglien?

I can get behind putting your best scorers on the 1st unit of the PP, provided that their play on the PP justifies them getting there, and staying there. The fact that he ranked dead last on the team last year in GF/60, is sort of telling about his effectiveness by the way past PP's were constructed. That's certainly not all on him. I haven't been a fan of the PP for years now.

At the same time, it's not like Ehlers was never promoted to the 1st PP unit, or the 1st line at any point of his career prior to this year. I can certainly understand your frustration last year specifically (5v5), but, don't overlook the team's schedule (and their match ups) last year during his run with Scheifele and Vilardi.

 

[Gm0ney]

If Connor continues playing like he has so far this year? Guaranteed he will get at least 11. If not in Wpg then somewhere else.

It isn't just his scoring this year. It is all of his game. If he had played this way earlier in his career he would have got 8.5 last time - in Wpg. So you are betting his play drops off.

I don't think the new cap sites properly calculate the player's cap hit at time of signing like CapFriendly used to, which was handy for doing apples-to-apples comparisons, but anyway...

Connor is 10th in NHL goal scoring over the last 5 years. 18th in total points.

Current cap hits for forwards in the 10-20 range are between $9.5M and $10.5M. Relative to the cap at the time they were signed, the cap hit percentages are between 11.5% and 13.3%.

So Connor's fair market value is $10.6M to $12.3M if the cap is $92.5M. $11M seems pretty reasonable on the open market.

Wheeler has the record for highest cap hit percentage with 10.4%. He was 8th in the NHL in total points over the 5 years prior to signing (22nd in goals scored). So that might be closer to the Jets internal limit. So $9.6Mx8? Maybe make it an even $10M?

 

[Gm0ney]

One could could argue that the same thing would happen without any one of those 5 on PP1 since its a sum of it's parts. Last year things went from ugly to UGLY on the PP when Vilardi went down

It is a sum of its parts, but by the eye test, the power play sure looks more dynamic with Ehlers out there and the stats back that up.

The top unit without Ehlers looks a lot like the 2nd unit, statistically - and by the eye test too. More standing around waiting for good things to happen or just trying a few of the same things over and over...less creative generally.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

Yep if Connor keeps up this pace he is over a 100 pts and I can’t find a guy with over a 100 earning less than 11.

Have those other comparables given up as many as they've scored over previous seasons?

 

[DRW204]

Yes. I think the PP this year, is far more dynamic in how they're moving around. I like how they're using him on the PP, and he's capitalizing on it.

More importantly than whatever I think, what do you make of his GF/60 on the PP, over the course of his career?

I was looking at all 10 years, not just the recent list of teammates that you mentioned. Player Discussion: - Ehlers

Back in the day, do you think that Ehlers was better on the power play, than Perreault for example? Was Ehlers more sought after (age, skill level, etc)? Yes, but was he more effective on the 1st PP unit?

Who's he bumping off the 1st unit in the first half of his career. Laine as we thought of him then with the shift and all? Ehlers over KC? Ehlers over Scheifele? Ehlers over Prime Wheeler? Byfuglien?

I can get behind putting your best scorers on the 1st unit of the PP, provided that their play on the PP justifies them getting there, and staying there. The fact that he ranked dead last on the team last year in GF/60, is sort of telling about his effectiveness on the way past PP's were constructed.

It's not like Ehlers was never promoted to the 1st PP unit, or the 1st line at any point of his career prior to this year. I can certainly understand your frustration last year specifically (5v5), but, don't overlook the team's schedule (and their match ups) last year during his run with Scheifele and Vilardi.

tbh ive never always loved ehlers play on the PP. don't know if that was him or system.

edit: sorry over the course of his career:
he's been roughly where i expect him near middle of the pack a few seasons, and underperformed some, and overperformed one. i think as primarily a unit-2 player more times than not he will be below most of unit 1 guys, unless he has an extremely good season like 20-21. but he def has been average to below-average more often than not.

def not over wheeler, laine, scheifele. i do think there could've been opportunity to play him over KC at times. this is going back years, but felt like Unit 2 was often missing a true alpha shooter/scorer like KC, and PP1 had several. 17-18 season for example, ehlers was primarily unit 2 right? his points was essentially the same as KC while playing w/ a combo of perreault, little, lowry, and myers/trouba IIRC, as opposed to scheifele, laine, buff, wheeler... i think that warrants some consideration? but really if we're going back like 5-10 years i don't have the motivation to get into a long back and forth discussion

last year he was not good on the PP, no doubt. i think his play has been v good this year on the pp, and the pp's as a whole have been much better with the coaching change. i don't think he's been some passenger either, he's one of the higher scorers, primary point producers and generating shots and chances (xGF). contrary to the rationale of your post, the Jets promoted him upto pp1 despite being poor in GF/60 the year prior. even Morrissey was poor in some showings as well.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Have those other comparables given up as many as they've scored over previous seasons?

Probably. Also he is playing good d now so if we are saying ehlers is going to get more money based on this year’s play, Connor’s 2 way game this year has put him up there.
What’s more impressive is this improved two play is coming in a non contract year.

It is a sum of its parts, but by the eye test, the power play sure looks more dynamic with Ehlers out there and the stats back that up.

The top unit without Ehlers looks a lot like the 2nd unit, statistically - and by the eye test too. More standing around waiting for good things to happen or just trying a few of the same things over and over...less creative generally.

But, we haven’t seen it without the other guys to compare because they stay healthy, but, if you think it would look just as good without Vilardi in front of net or Connor as the sniper, if you think the pp would have been just as good without them don’t know what to tell you.

 

[DRW204]

Have those other comparables given up as many as they've scored over previous seasons?

i don't think it matters for fwds as much. points and goals get you paid. lots of players who give it all back still get their bag. if defensively value was awarded equally, lowry would be making more than 3.25m for instance. but he was generally a 30ish pt scorer and got paid based off that.

 

[ps241]

I generally agree, but in the Jets roster I can't see the Jets paying Ehlers as much or more than Hellebuyck and Scheifele, especially just one year after their contract starts.

The only forward that will pierce that vail will be Connor and that is only because the Cap will have gone way up. KC is not a Hellebuyck level talent but we got Helle at the right time and got him for a steal. KC is not more valuable than Scheif so I would say Mark’s % cap hit the year he signed is Connor’s ceiling.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

but really if we're going back like 5-10 years i don't have the motivation to get into a long back and forth discussion

That's fine.

My post was on the heels of people going over his being misused over the past 10 years on the PP; or at least that's how I understood it.

def not over wheeler, laine, scheifele. i do think there could've been opportunity to play him over KC at times. this is going back years, but felt like Unit 2 was often missing a true alpha shooter/scorer like KC, and PP1 had several. 17-18 season for example, ehlers was primarily unit 2 right?

KFC was sort of an afterthought when he was on that 1st unit back then (IMO), in 2017-18. Actually, going back a few years ago (maybe 4-5 years back), he was occupying a similar spot where Ehlers is now, hovering around the back of the net and such. More of a fascilitator role (not that you aren't aware of this).

I'm not sure that Ehlers wasn't better suited for the 2nd unit then, to help get that unit going, instead of being more of a bystander on that 1st unit.

Frankly, being a KFC fan, I would have welcomed him being on that 2nd unit during the Laine years. I also had no problem with him being on the 2nd line with PLD for those two years, as I had long wanted him to get away from the top line.

contrary to the rationale of your post though, the Jets promoted him upto pp1 and is producing really well on it despite being poor in GF/60 the year prior.

I'm not clear what you mean by this.

It didn't take me long to embrace the overhaul of the special teams (new staff/deployment/etc), specifically with the PP. If Arniel likes him on the first unit, I'm all for it. I was under the impression, going back to the summer, that Ehlers was going to be on the 1st unit.

tbh ive never always loved ehlers play on the PP. don't know if that was him or system.

That's fair.

 

[Flair Hay]

That's fine.

My post was on the heels of people going over his being misused over the past 10 years on the PP; or at least that's how I understood it.



KFC was sort of an afterthought when he was on that 1st unit back then (IMO), in 2017-18. Actually, going back a few years ago (maybe 4-5 years back), he was occupying a similar spot where Ehlers is now, hovering around the back of the net and such. More of a fascilitator role (not that you aren't aware of this).

I'm not sure that Ehlers wasn't better suited for the 2nd unit then, to help get that unit going, instead of being more of a bystander on that 1st unit.

Frankly, being a KFC fan, I would have welcomed him being on that 2nd unit during the Laine years. I also had no problem with him being on the 2nd line with PLD for those two years, as I had long wanted him to get away from the top line.




I'm not clear what you mean by this.

It didn't take me long to embrace the overhaul of the special teams (new staff/deployment/etc), specifically with the PP. If Arniel likes him on the first unit, I'm all for it. I was under the impression, going back to the summer, that Ehlers was going to be on the 1st unit.



That's fair.

This is all really fair dialogue and facts you've shared.

Speaking for myself, I think it's fair to expect Ehlers on the PP1 going forward. It seemed a lot more justified at times in the past for him to lead the 2nd unit.

I imagine wherever he signs he will be a PP1 guy going forward. And likely 1st line if it's not here. It's not much of a leap to expect point a game or more when he is healthy if that's the case.

That's a pretty high end player to let go for us, even if we use him less here.

 

[DRW204]

KFC was sort of an afterthought when he was on that 1st unit back then (IMO), in 2017-18. Actually, going back a few years ago (maybe 4-5 years back), he was occupying a similar spot where Ehlers is now, hovering around the back of the net and such. More of a fascilitator role (not that you aren't aware of this).

I'm not sure that Ehlers wasn't better suited for the 2nd unit then, to help get that unit going, instead of being more of a bystander on that 1st unit.

Frankly, being a KFC fan, I would have welcomed him being on that 2nd unit during the Laine years. I also had no problem with him being on the 2nd line with PLD for those two years, as I had long wanted him to get away from the top line.

yeah KC was probably last in line for touches. Wheeler was the QB look for Scheifele or Laine, or to Buff to set up Laine. personally, don't think KC was doing anything on the PP back-then that Ehlers couldn't. On the other hand, i think PP2 could've benefited from a focal shooter like connor. but yeah this is 5+ years ago i don't care that much anymore

and yeah prior to this year, his best season came next to PLD and i don't think he and scheifele were a good match on the defensive end. ofc this year the top line has been fantastic meanwhile the 2nd line i think has not been as good as previous years.

I'm not clear what you mean by this.

It didn't take me long to embrace the overhaul of the special teams (new staff/deployment/etc), specifically with the PP. If Arniel likes him on the first unit, I'm all for it. I was under the impression, going back to the summer, that Ehlers was going to be on the 1st unit.

your rationale was "I can get behind putting your best scorers on the 1st unit of the PP, provided that their play on the PP justifies them getting there, and staying there."

ehlers or morrissey in previous years were low in GF stats on the PP. but this year ehlers is now on PP1, and morrissey has essentially remained there since 2020.

 

[Adam da bomb]

The only forward that will pierce that vail will be Connor and that is only because the Cap will have gone way up. KC is not a Hellebuyck level talent but we got Helle at the right time and got him for a steal. KC is not more valuable than Scheif so I would say Mark’s % cap hit the year he signed is Connor’s ceiling.

I think it will depend on if kc can keep this level up. Schief never had a 100 pt season before signing his new deal. Schief has improved his play since this year, but if kc can have 2 100 pt seasons he gets whatever he wants.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

He has scored 61, you don’t get to be considered a 70-80 pt player till you score 70-80 pts. No one gives credit for pace.
He was used poorly, then he was used poorly, but, he doesn’t get credit for points he has never got.
If he does it this season, by end of season he can be a 70-80 pt guy.

Connor isn’t a 100 pt guy because he is pacing for it..

I don't disagree with this entirely. Pace matters. It is informative. But you are right that a player is not a 70 pt guy, or a 100 pt guy, until he has done it.

The posts I have made about what KC and Nik might get paid were all qualified with the big if that they finish this season like they have played so far - and without further serious injury. Not just games played but also playing healthy, which is required if they are to continue producing like they have so far.

Usage also matters but only up to a point. GMs look at everything, all the information available to them when signing players, or trading for them, or drafting them. But they seem to be pretty strongly affected by recency bias, like the rest of us.

Ehlers has missed 9 gms so far. If he continues like he has and plays the rest of the games he will have a 78 pt career year. Connor is on a 108 pt 49 goal pace. If they both keep it up they will both get paid.

 

[KingBogo]

I think it will depend on if kc can keep this level up. Schief never had a 100 pt season before signing his new deal. Schief has improved his play since this year, but if kc can have 2 100 pt seasons he gets whatever he wants.

I think Chevy pushes hard to get Connor signed long term this summer.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think Chevy pushes hard to get Connor signed long term this summer.

Does asking him to sign affect the dollar amount? It will definitely be affected more by recency bias as if he can’t repeat next season it would be good to get paid after his best numbers.

 

[KingBogo]

Does asking him to sign affect the dollar amount? It will definitely be affected more by recency bias as if he can’t repeat next season it would be good to get paid after his best numbers.

Every contract is negotiated. Connor has put up the points in multiple seasons and will end up being the highest paid Jet. Ehlers is enough of a distraction, Connor going into his final year would be an even bigger distraction.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I generally agree, but in the Jets roster I can't see the Jets paying Ehlers as much or more than Hellebuyck and Scheifele, especially just one year after their contract starts.

Not even after a career year? A year when the cap takes a big jump up? Recency counts. You need to consider what the player is likely to get on the UFA market. Scheif and Helle didn't play out their last years, signing just before their last season started. Ehlers is half way through that last season. UFA is getting very close.

Helle and Scheif ended up signing team friendly contracts. I don't think you can then demand everyone else do the same.

At least use cap%. Scheif and Helle got 9.7%. If the cap goes up ~5% to 92.5 that would be 8.97 mil. If it goes up to 94 mil it would be 9.118.