Player Discussion: Ehlers

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

The flaw in that argument is that you've assumed that when the Jets win, they lead for a large (or at least significant) part of the game and vice versa when they lose.

I'm gonna go ahead and guess teams lead a lot more when they win and trail a lot more when they lose, feel like that's a pretty safe assumption.

 

[Buffdog]

I'm gonna go ahead and guess teams lead a lot more when they win and trail a lot more when they lose, feel like that's a pretty safe assumption.

I don't make assumptions

 

[Gm0ney]

The flaw in that argument is that you've assumed that when the Jets win, they lead for a large (or at least significant) part of the game and vice versa when they lose.

I actually looked at a sample of about a dozen games where Ehlers played a lot of minutes and similar sample where he played very few minutes and that's exactly what was happening. Jets up by a goal with 5 minutes to go? Ehlers isn't going to see much, if any, ice time. Jets down a goal or two and Ehlers is out there 6 on 5 for 2 minutes trying to score...and that long 2 minute 6v5 shift is often the difference between a 16 minute night and an 18 minute night.

In a couple of Ehlers high TOI games I looked at it was because Wheeler or Lowry got hurt (or maybe ejected in Lowry's case?) and the Jets were down a forward...and trailing.

 

[Buffdog]

I actually looked at a sample of about a dozen games where Ehlers played a lot of minutes and similar sample where he played very few minutes and that's exactly what was happening. Jets up by a goal with 5 minutes to go? Ehlers isn't going to see much, if any, ice time. Jets down a goal or two and Ehlers is out there 6 on 5 for 2 minutes trying to score...and that long 2 minute 6v5 shift is often the difference between a 16 minute night and an 18 minute night.

In a couple of Ehlers high TOI games I looked at it was because Wheeler or Lowry got hurt (or maybe ejected in Lowry's case?) and the Jets were down a forward...and trailing.

It certainly is a possible explanation

 

[DRW204]

just a quick summary of the offense of 5v5 fwds; was going to post this in another thread, however wanted to highlight ehlers' ranking in the league as well

ranked 16th in the NHL in 5v5 pts, 14th in 5v5 pts/60 (41+ GP)
26th in GF and 22nd in GF/60 (41+gp)

in goal-differential for fwds finished 5th in the league (behind Hyman, Mackinnon, McDavid and Barkov)

 

[Buffdog]

I'd like to congratulate Ehlers on playing a full 82 games this year. Pretty impressive after recovering from his hernia last season.

Somewhat related, Kudos to Monahan for playing 83 games this year

Both those guys have had questions about injury resiliency and durability. Next year, hopefully it's Vilardi's turn

 

[Jet]

I'd like to congratulate Ehlers on playing a full 82 games this year. Pretty impressive after recovering from his hernia last season.

Somewhat related, Kudos to Monahan for playing 83 games this year

Both those guys have had questions about injury resiliency and durability. Next year, hopefully it's Vilardi's turn

Yeah I think he's so close to pre injury speed and agility it's really the best outcome we could have expected

 

[DRW204]

since 17-18
ehlers regular season (RS) & POs PPG: 0.79 and 0.35 - a 0.44 PPG drop off, or a difference of 15 pts (on 34 GP).

of Fwds who've had min. of 30 PO GP (~10% less than Ehlers as a minimum), that 0.44 represents the largest drop-off from RS PPG to PO PPG for Fwds over that time-frame. 0.35 PPG would rank 131st/191 Fwd that have appeared in a min of 30 PO GP.

of those same players as above, filtered to RS production between 0.7-0.9 PPG, their PO PPG is 0.72.

he and Helle need to step it up considerably.

I'd like to congratulate Ehlers on playing a full 82 games this year. Pretty impressive after recovering from his hernia last season.

Somewhat related, Kudos to Monahan for playing 83 games this year

Both those guys have had questions about injury resiliency and durability. Next year, hopefully it's Vilardi's turn

pretty sure Monahan missed a game or 2 w/ us b/c of an illness.... could've had 84 gp

 

[Skidooboy]

maybe since Ehlers is so good on paper we should replace the ice with that!

 

[10Ducky10]

He is just one of the guys that needs to up his game.
Mono and Tof as well as Samberg, Helle, and DeMelo need to up their games as well.
Nino played not bad last game but he needs to get ont he scoreboard too.

 

[Flair Hay]

I'd like to congratulate Ehlers on playing a full 82 games this year. Pretty impressive after recovering from his hernia last season.

Somewhat related, Kudos to Monahan for playing 83 games this year

Both those guys have had questions about injury resiliency and durability. Next year, hopefully it's Vilardi's turn

Injury prone can be a really tricky label to apply. Sometimes guys have extended runs of bad luck or make changes needed to stay healthy. It's grey area and not black and white.

He definitely re-established his value this year as a 60 point player that brings more than points to the table and is capable of more if called upon.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Injury prone can be a really tricky label to apply. Sometimes guys have extended runs of bad luck or make changes needed to stay healthy. It's grey area and not black and white.

He definitely re-established his value this year as a 60 point player that brings more than points to the table and is capable of more if called upon.

Well said.

Hoping he can settle down a bit and play the game he had going for the latter part of the season. I think more linked-up play where he's playing less of the ice on attack will help. He's a gamer, but seems to respond to adversity by upping his risk profile and trying way to hard to make stuff happen.

The return of calm, quick, lethal-wrister Ehlers would be very welcome.

 

[Andreas Ferrari]

During the playoffs Nic is like a runaway motorboat with no rudder. He speeds around the ice but doesn't produce anything.
I've been noticing this from day one.

Time to trade him for a top RD prospect.

 

[GreatSaveEssensa]

During the playoffs Nic is like a runaway motorboat with no rudder. He speeds around the ice but doesn't produce anything.
I've been noticing this from day one.

Time to trade him for a top RD prospect.

Him losing the puck with 10 seconds left, deep in the O zone in the 2nd period of game two, while 4 on 4 and players coming out of the box, down by 1 was the kicker for me. Absolutely zero game awareness what so ever. He loses the puck and the Avs hit the guy coming out of the box for a breakaway and goal. Total backbreaker and now down 4-2 heading to intermission. All he had to do was hold the pick on the boards and kill the clock. He has to know the situation at hand. Stupid stupid play that cost the Jets game 2

Like someone else mentioned, he is a rudderless motor. He confuses his own players, skates around like a mosquito and is a turnover machine. Thine to trade him for some useful parts.

 

[Tube Skates]

Him losing the puck with 10 seconds left, deep in the O zone in the 2nd period of game two, while 4 on 4 and players coming out of the box, down by 1 was the kicker for me. Absolutely zero game awareness what so ever. He loses the puck and the Avs hit the guy coming out of the box for a breakaway and goal. Total backbreaker and now down 4-2 heading to intermission. All he had to do was hold the pick on the boards and kill the clock. He has to know the situation at hand. Stupid stupid play that cost the Jets game 2

Like someone else mentioned, he is a rudderless motor. He confuses his own players, skates around like a mosquito and is a turnover machine. Thine to trade him for some useful parts.

I think that the Jets would have no trouble finding a dance partner for a trade with Ehlers. Hope it’s at the draft

 

[10Ducky10]

I think that the Jets would have no trouble finding a dance partner for a trade with Ehlers. Hope it’s at the draft

Ehlers and Stanley for a re-signed Konecny.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

I think for the ones who don't like the way Ehlers plays, he will ask for a trade or refuse to sign another contract with the Jets.
This team has more and larger issues than Ehlers style of play. I'm excited to hear your excuses when he's no longer here for you to blame.
I do think there are a lot of teams that would be happy to have him and should result in a trade that will likely be a loss for the Jets but not a large one due to how well Chevy negotiates.

 

[Buffdog]

I think for the ones who don't like the way Ehlers plays, he will ask for a trade or refuse to sign another contract with the Jets.
This team has more and larger issues than Ehlers style of play. I'm excited to hear your excuses when he's no longer here for you to blame.
I do think there are a lot of teams that would be happy to have him and should result in a trade that will likely be a loss for the Jets but not a large one due to how well Chevy negotiates.

Yeah, we're really gonna miss his playoff production

 

[Eyeseeing]

I think for the ones who don't like the way Ehlers plays, he will ask for a trade or refuse to sign another contract with the Jets.
This team has more and larger issues than Ehlers style of play. I'm excited to hear your excuses when he's no longer here for you to blame.
I do think there are a lot of teams that would be happy to have him and should result in a trade that will likely be a loss for the Jets but not a large one due to how well Chevy negotiates.

I’m an Ehlers fan and I don’t think he’ll be back.
Heaven forbid he becomes an Oiler , I think he’d thrive there

Yeah, we're really gonna miss his playoff production

Like Helle’s

 

[Orrrules]

Never was a fan of Ehlers, selfish, no hockey smarts, goes down like he's been shot.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

I'm confused. How many Jets produced in the playoffs that was a net positive? if your line is giving up more than you are producing then your comment cover most of the Jets....@buffdogg

 

[DRW204]

I'm confused. How many Jets produced in the playoffs that was a net positive? if your line is giving up more than you are producing then your comment cover most of the Jets....

Barely any one is I bet. The Jets are getting trounced. However I don't think there is another similarly heralded fwd in the nhl with as large of a regular season to PO drop off as ehlers over the years. A 0.8 ppg player who has dropped by over 50% in his career PO's.

He is supposed to be a difference maker based on how he performs in the regular season, he's out most effective 5v5 fwd in production and one of the tops in the league in 5v5 +/-.
Even just beyond the stats, Watch the 2023-2024 Winnipeg Jets Plays of The Year video that the NHL put out. So much Ehlers in it. Can anyone confidently say he's playing on that level in the PO's?

 

[Buffdog]

I'm confused. How many Jets produced in the playoffs that was a net positive? if your line is giving up more than you are producing then your comment cover most of the Jets....@buffdogg

I didn't say anything about any other Jet. Make a comment on them in their thread and we can discuss them there. This is the Ehlers thread, so we're discussing Ehlers

Plenty of Jets have been shit. Ehlers is one of them

Barely any one is I bet. The Jets are getting trounced. However I don't think there is another similarly heralded fwd in the nhl with as large of a regular season to PO drop off as ehlers over the years. A 0.8 ppg player who has dropped by over 50% in his career PO's.

He is supposed to be a difference maker based on how he performs in the regular season, he's out most effective 5v5 fwd in production and one of the tops in the league in 5v5 +/-.
Even just beyond the stats, Watch the 2023-2024 Winnipeg Jets Plays of The Year video that the NHL put out. So much Ehlers in it. Can anyone confidently say he's playing on that level in the PO's?

Marner is up there

Like Helle’s

i wasn't aware that poor play by one player is excused by bringing up the poor play of another

 

[DRW204]

I didn't say anything about any other Jet. Make a comment on them in their thread and we can discuss them there. This is the Ehlers thread, so we're discussing Ehlers

Plenty of Jets have been shit. Ehlers is one of them


Marner is up there


i wasn't aware that poor play by one player is excused by bringing up the poor play of another

marner PO PPG (2016 onward) 0.91 PPG vs RS PPG 1.11

ehlers PO PPG (2017 onward): 0.36 PPG vs RS PPG 0.79

i wish ehlers has had as big of a drop as marner

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

I didn't say anything about any other Jet. Make a comment on them in their thread and we can discuss them there. This is the Ehlers thread, so we're discussing Ehlers

Plenty of Jets have been shit. Ehlers is one of them


Marner is up there


i wasn't aware that poor play by one player is excused by bringing up the poor play of another

I didn't say anything about any other Jet. Make a comment on them in their thread and we can discuss them there. This is the Ehlers thread, so we're discussing Ehlers

Plenty of Jets have been shit. Ehlers is one of them


Marner is up there


i wasn't aware that poor play by one player is excused by bringing up the poor play of another

Yes it is the Ehlers thread but its always Ehlers with you. You never call out other players in the top 6 other than him on a regular basis. I'm just trying to figure out why that is. You almost have a single minded focus on Ehlers play and a blindness of everyone else. I never see you calling out KFC, Scheifele, or Wheeler when he played on their threads and they've all played as bad or worse at times.