Ehlers why Didnt We Trade Him

Yeah the team is on the way to the playoffs. Everyone is dialed in and focused on that. It doesn't serve either party to rock the boat right now.

Fly will want to finish strong and have a good post season to maximize his value. Him having that serves the org as a better fly would hopefully lead to a deeper run.

As I've said before if the two sides were serious about a deal it would have been done by the deadline.

Now they could still come to one in the summer but I'd expect it's more likely that Nik is looking to test the market.
I'm not really sure that not having a deal by the deadline is such a strong indicator of what Chevy (or Ehlers) will do.

The Jets also haven't extended Pionk, Appleton or Iafallo, and those are three players that very likely want to stay. I would guess that Chevy would have an interest in extending at least two of those players.

He extended Namestnikov earlier this season, but maybe that was an easy determination based on the cost and term.

One possibility that I've considered is that Chevy didn't want to rock the boat with his team by extending one or two of his more expensive pending UFAs, while leaving others to wait. As an example, if he thinks that it's unlikely he can meet demands of Appleton and/or Iafallo, he doesn't want sign one of them and not the other. Pionk and Ehlers are also going to be high-profile and consequential new contracts, and he might not want to conclude one and let the other drag out through the season.

Instead, Chevy might have decided that until he had the future cap situation clarified he couldn't really negotiate with pending UFAs like Ehlers, Pionk, Iafallo and Appleton. He also might have wanted to sign one or two without the others while the team was in the thick of a playoff race, but instead plans to zone in on negotiations as soon as the season is over.

TLDR: Ehlers is in the same boat as Pionk, Iafallo and Appleton, and maybe there's not much more to see at this point.
 
I'm not really sure that not having a deal by the deadline is such a strong indicator of what Chevy (or Ehlers) will do.

The Jets also haven't extended Pionk, Appleton or Iafallo, and those are three players that very likely want to stay. I would guess that Chevy would have an interest in extending at least two of those players.

He extended Namestnikov earlier this season, but maybe that was an easy determination based on the cost and term.

One possibility that I've considered is that Chevy didn't want to rock the boat with his team by extending one or two of his more expensive pending UFAs, while leaving others to wait. As an example, if he thinks that it's unlikely he can meet demands of Appleton and/or Iafallo, he doesn't want sign one of them and not the other. Pionk and Ehlers are also going to be high-profile and consequential new contracts, and he might not want to conclude one and let the other drag out through the season.

Instead, Chevy might have decided that until he had the future cap situation clarified he couldn't really negotiate with pending UFAs like Ehlers, Pionk, Iafallo and Appleton. He also might have wanted to sign one or two without the others while the team was in the thick of a playoff race, but instead plans to zone in on negotiations as soon as the season is over.

TLDR: Ehlers is in the same boat as Pionk, Iafallo and Appleton, and maybe there's not much more to see at this point.

This is possible but it is awfully risky if it's the case. The longer he waits the closer to FA these guys get and the more alluring it is.

I can understand thus approach for the depth guys but I'd have to think he'd have both Pionk and Ehlers inked if he could.
 
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If Chevy gives him 8 x 8.5m, another team will have to give him more than 9.7m to equal the cash. How many teams will top that?

11m
11m
9m
9m
8m
8m
6m
6m
If Chevy gives him 8x8.5 he will be taking a big chance on Ehlers staying healthy.

I think everyone here knows how highly I think of Ehlers, but even I'm not sure that is a smart deal. I'm not even sure that Ehlers feels confident he can last that long or wants to be so far from home for another 8 years.

So, the question is not just, "What will it take to make Ehlers (change his mind and) stay?" It's also, "What can Chey do to keep him around during our contending window without mortgaging the future?"
The answer might be a higher AAV than Scheifele/Helle over a shorter number of years, with a lower total contract value, and Freedom 35.

Just trying to think outside the box...
 
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If Chevy gives him 8x8.5 he will be taking a big chance on Ehlers staying healthy.

I think everyone here knows how highly I think of Ehlers, but even I'm not sure that is a smart deal. I'm not even sure that Ehlers feels confident he can last that long or wants to be so far from home for another 8 years.

So, the question is not just, "What will it take to make Ehlers (change his mind and) stay?" It's also, "What can Chey do to keep him around during our contending window without mortgaging the future?"
The answer might be a higher AAV than Scheifele/Helle over a shorter number of years, with a lower total contract value, and Freedom 35.

Just trying to think outside the box...
Can’t a player get long term ltir and essentially retire like price?
 
If Chevy gives him 8x8.5 he will be taking a big chance on Ehlers staying healthy.

I think everyone here knows how highly I think of Ehlers, but even I'm not sure that is a smart deal. I'm not even sure that Ehlers feels confident he can last that long or wants to be so far from home for another 8 years.

So, the question is not just, "What will it take to make Ehlers (change his mind and) stay?" It's also, "What can Chey do to keep him around during our contending window without mortgaging the future?"
The answer might be a higher AAV than Scheifele/Helle over a shorter number of years, with a lower total contract value, and Freedom 35.

Just trying to think outside the box...
How do you know the state of where Ehlers contract is at? Maybe Ehlers has been open to an extension and Chevy doesn’t want to commit long term until what he sees from Ehlers in the playoffs?
 
So first period against LA, no pp’s or pk’s - Connor and Scheif 8 shifts for 7:20 and 7:43 Ehlers 8 shifts for 5:13. Coach allows and almost promotes the long shifts for line 1 and keeps the other intentionally short. Ehlers can go someone else for more money and more ice/respect
 
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So first period against LA, no pp’s or pk’s - Connor and Scheif 8 shifts for 7:20 and 7:43 Ehlers 8 shifts for 5:13. Coach allows and almost promotes the long shifts for line 1 and keeps the other intentionally short. Ehlers can go someone else for more money and more ice/respect

It's now 4 coaches that have allowed it, it's not the coaches but the players who are demanding it and the coach is keeping his top guys happy.
 
If Chevy gives him 8 x 8.5m, another team will have to give him more than 9.7m to equal the cash. How many teams will top that?

11m
11m
9m
9m
8m
8m
6m
6m
an average of $8.5 million per season won't likely get it done regardless of how front-loaded it is with bonuses. There aren't many top wingers UFAs left - 1. Marner, 2. Ehlers, 3. Boeser and 4. Bennett...that's it.

Factor the limited supply and the big demand (teams are always looking for top-6 wingers as most teams don't have 4 of them) AND the salary cap increasing by $25 million over the next 3 years, Ehlers number will start at the low 9 million mark AAV and I think there is a good chance it meets or exceeds $10 million AAV.

I do think some teams will offer huge signing bonuses.

OT, but I'm thinking Marner will get a bit more than Rantanen...$13 - 13.5 million per season.
 
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Don't we think we would have heard something by now of Ehlers wanting out if he did want out ? I just think both he and Chevy said wait until the season is over and we will try and hammer out a deal good for both sides.
There is a good chance this is what happened ? Either Nik wants to stay or he doesn’t, and if he does want to stay, I’m sure Chevy would know this, so it comes down to money, and in this case, both sides feel they can reach an agreement. All about playoffs.

Nobody really knows with this Ehlers situation, as it’s sort of shrouded in mystery ?

Last year everyone thought Helle and Scheifele would both be gone, but then they both signed,

If I had to guess, I think both sides are open to a contract, and the Jets interest will all depend on Niks
playoff performance.

I just hope that Ehlers has s great performance in the playoffs, and the Jets win 2 rounds, then I think the chances are good Nik signs. If he’s invisible, they likely part ways.

I guess I’m an Ehlers fan, and want him to resign. He’s fun to watch.
 
So first period against LA, no pp’s or pk’s - Connor and Scheif 8 shifts for 7:20 and 7:43 Ehlers 8 shifts for 5:13. Coach allows and almost promotes the long shifts for line 1 and keeps the other intentionally short. Ehlers can go someone else for more money and more ice/respect
This is so very true, and although Nik’s ice time improved this year, I still think he gets the short end of the stick, considering his talent level.
 
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How do you know the state of where Ehlers contract is at? Maybe Ehlers has been open to an extension and Chevy doesn’t want to commit long term until what he sees from Ehlers in the playoffs?
I think this is where it’s at.
 
So first period against LA, no pp’s or pk’s - Connor and Scheif 8 shifts for 7:20 and 7:43 Ehlers 8 shifts for 5:13. Coach allows and almost promotes the long shifts for line 1 and keeps the other intentionally short. Ehlers can go someone else for more money and more ice/respect
Weird game actually, Connor had 22 shifts for 22:44 Ehlers had 19 shifts for 15:24 . Scheifele was basically the same as Connor. Both Scheifele and Connor played way too long of shifts out there which i agree that shouldn't happen but i don't think Arniel is promoting it. Trailing basically the entire game probably had more to do with it.
 
an average of $8.5 million per season won't likely get it done regardless of how front-loaded it is with bonuses. There aren't many top wingers UFAs left - 1. Marner, 2. Ehlers, 3. Boeser and 4. Bennett...that's it.

Factor the limited supply and the big demand (teams are always looking for top-6 wingers as most teams don't have 4 of them) AND the salary cap increasing by $25 million over the next 3 years, Ehlers number will start at the low 9 million mark AAV and I think there is a good chance it meets or exceeds $10 million AAV.

I do think some teams will offer huge signing bonuses.

OT, but I'm thinking Marner will get a bit more than Rantanen...$13 - 13.5 million per season.
Sing as another team can only give him 7 years they would have to give them over 9.1 million per year to equal 8.5 million over 8 years.
As far as the cap going up by 25 million over the next 3 years, nobody knows what the cap is going to do especially considering a lot of people are calling for a recession.
 
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Sing as another team can only give him 7 years they would have to give them over 9.1 million per year to equal 8.5 million over 8 years.
As far as the cap going up by 25 million over the next 3 years, nobody knows what the cap is going to do especially considering a lot of people are calling for a recession.
edit ... They would have to give him over 9.7 million not 9.1m.
 
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During Maurice's last two years Wheeler was actual coach and Maurice were his puppet (which was so humiliating to Maurice he quit).

Scheifele was during Coach Wheeler's tenure his willing right hand man. So it is no surprise there is still after so many years some behavior which he does that is unacceptable.

When the team wins it won't raise discussion. But you all remembered how it looked when entitled players played poorly and still did their antics.

Arniel don't have clout or even a valid reason to cut Scheifele's antics. But when things go bad in future, Arniel can't do anything to monster he endured during sunny days.

Ehlers is probably tired to be always the guy who gets short stick.
 
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edit ... They would have to give him over 9.7 million not 9.1m.
Yeah i always figured $8.25 was the magic number if it is going to work. But anywhere around there is reasonable i think.

$8.000 x 8 = $64M
$64M /7 = $9.142M
-Our AAV is $1.142M lower

$8.250 x 8 = $66M
$66M /7 = $9.428M
-Our AAV is $1.178M lower

$8.500 x 8 = $68M
$68M / 7 = $9.714M
-Our AAV is $1.214M lower

It's definitely an advantage we have other teams don't. Now if it's a tax free state making an offer that only helps us so much...
 
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So first period against LA, no pp’s or pk’s - Connor and Scheif 8 shifts for 7:20 and 7:43 Ehlers 8 shifts for 5:13. Coach allows and almost promotes the long shifts for line 1 and keeps the other intentionally short. Ehlers can go someone else for more money and more ice/respect
So looks to me like Connor and Schief took average length shifts and Ehlers took short shifts... did those end on the fly or at a whistle?

shifts under a minute aren't "long" FFS
 
So looks to me like Connor and Schief took average length shifts and Ehlers took short shifts... did those end on the fly or at a whistle?

shifts under a minute aren't "long" FFS
FFS AVERAGING 57 second shifts at 5 on 5 is not good. Having a couple shifts each game that long is fine but averaging that long is not good. I won't bring this up again but shift lengths for those two are a problem whether you want to admit it or not.

For reference to Nik, he played 19 shifts and 15:25 for an average of 48 seconds. Normal shift length in the NHL is 40-50 secs for a reason, because it is optimal. It may seem like a small amount but over a full game and especially over a full season those 10+ secs a shift add up.
 
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this may be a weird concept for some to grasp but when you are trailing in a hockey game your top offensive players will stay out longer looking for offence...

ehlers actually averaged 0:38 5v5 which is way too short when we needed more offense and he wasn't going against their best shut down line
 
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FFS AVERAGING 57 second shifts at 5 on 5 is not good. Having a couple shifts each game that long is fine but averaging that long is not good. I won't bring this up again but shift lengths for those two are a problem whether you want to admit it or not.

For reference to Nik, he played 19 shifts and 15:25 for an average of 48 seconds. Normal shift length in the NHL is 40-50 secs for a reason, because it is optimal. It may seem like a small amount but over a full game and especially over a full season those 10+ secs a shift add up.
Shift length average is 45-60 seconds in the NHL

Optimal shift length will vary by player. There is no "one size fits all"

The fact that you have your panties in a bunch over 7 seconds is hilarious. That's NOT a long time, despite what you tell the ladies
 
Shift length average is 45-60 seconds in the NHL

Optimal shift length will vary by player. There is no "one size fits all"

The fact that you have your panties in a bunch over 7 seconds is hilarious. That's NOT a long time, despite what you tell the ladies
it's funny because when they average 50 seconds per shift 5v5 that poster will just add the powerplay time to the shift length to make it seem worse then it actually is
 
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Shift length average is 45-60 seconds in the NHL

Optimal shift length will vary by player. There is no "one size fits all"

The fact that you have your panties in a bunch over 7 seconds is hilarious. That's NOT a long time, despite what you tell the ladies
5v5 average shift time for forwards is 46.2 seconds so far this season.

Ehlers' average at 5v5 is 46.6 seconds. Scheifele's is 56.4. Connor's is 54.4.

Nearly 10 seconds per shift more for Scheifele than Ehlers...x 1307 shifts.

Scheif's got the 5th longest average shift length for a forward at 5v5 in the NHL (out of 443 forwards with 200+ TOI), behind Kaprizov, McDavid, Rossi and Zuccarello (Minnesota seems to prefer long shift lengths in general).

Connor's got the 8th longest average shift length, with Matt Boldy and Marcus Johansson between him and Schief (really, wtf is Minnesota doing?)

Ehlers is 197th.

So it seems like either Arniel is pushing Scheifele and Connor out there for longer shifts, or they're deciding themselves to stay out longer and he's not objecting to it.
 
5v5 average shift time for forwards is 46.2 seconds so far this season.

Ehlers' average at 5v5 is 46.6 seconds. Scheifele's is 56.4. Connor's is 54.4.

Nearly 10 seconds per shift more for Scheifele than Ehlers...x 1307 shifts.

Scheif's got the 5th longest average shift length for a forward at 5v5 in the NHL (out of 443 forwards with 200+ TOI), behind Kaprizov, McDavid, Rossi and Zuccarello (Minnesota seems to prefer long shift lengths in general).

Connor's got the 8th longest average shift length, with Matt Boldy and Marcus Johansson between him and Schief (really, wtf is Minnesota doing?)

Ehlers is 197th.

So it seems like either Arniel is pushing Scheifele and Connor out there for longer shifts, or they're deciding themselves to stay out longer and he's not objecting to it.

Or maybe it’s just a reflection of play style. Scheifele and Connor like to get in the zone and play a puck possession game down low, leading to more zone time and longer shifts. Ehlers likes to skate in to the zone and either get a chance off the rush, or shoot from anywhere. That leads to either a frozen puck if he hits the net or wraps around the boards and out of the zone if he misses. Either way he changes.
 

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