I dont think its a coaching thing... ive been half watching this since bones commented on number of shifts and ehlers really is a short shift player - could be from his back issue days or could be from his need for speed...
The top line doesn't "greatly over-extend" their shifts. They're all around or under 0:50 at 5v5
It may be the number the coaches look at, but the total ice time, line mates and deployment and opportunity over the last 7 years will be what Ehlers looks at. I am not saying he will leave for sure (I think it is likely) but those are all things that will play a part in his decision, not just money or the number of years. Many players would take less money for more opportunity and ice time and respect from the coaches.
Don't know if it's respect from coaches as Arniel is a separate person from Bones. If Ehlers is choosing to take shorter shifts than can he complain about total ice time?
They take longer shifts in all situations than anyone on the team. Not only do they sniff for offensive one more chance quite often, a lot of shift length comes down the coaches decisions. If line 2 thru 4 are out and there is a whistle around the 30 second mark, the coach will change the line. If line 1 is out and there is a whistle any time under 45 seconds they won't change them. That often leads to the long shift if there is a whistle at say the 40 sec mark and they stay out, that shifts then leaks into a 1:20 shift
Coaches control shift length way more than people realize. Coaches aren't changing line 1 if there is a whistle 45 seconds into their shift, but Ehlers line gets a whistle at the 30 second mark and there is a quick change. Happens all the time.
No, but, ive seen Ehlers go to their end once and then once the team gets the puck not go for a second chance, when there is no whistle.
Ehlers tends to take shorter shifts than Connor but not by by a whole lot when the change is on the fly. When the whistle comes and when a coach changes his line is a big way that coach controls ice time.
That assumes that Ehlers hasn't been generating 5v5 points for players like Perfetti, Lowry and Appleton. But I think he's a key generator for the middle-6 at 5v5. My view is that his speed and skill opens up a lot of offense that would be easier for opponents to shut down with players like Namestnikov, Appleton, Lowry in the middle 6. Time will tell if Perfetti can elevate into a consistent driver of offense on his own. I think that's a risky assumption.
They are 100% changing any line 45 seconds into a shift with a whistle
Ideally we keep Ehlers, but, people try to look at how we can still be competitive if Ehlers forces his way out.
Another point, Ehlers is our best transition player. That means he is likely to get stuck in his end which keeps the time he and his line have to play down.
If perfetti can show some semblance of consistency, ie: his play and assertiveness offensively from Feb onward for 3/4s of the year, I think the Jets would be in a decent place in there middle 6 without ehlers. But I do agree, if the Jets have space they should make it work. Their competitive window is as long as Helle is at a high level, and he's shown no signs of slowing down.
His zone exits are amazing. The top line's longer shifts legth can be attributed (at least in part) to their tendency to get hemmed in (as you pointed out)
I mean it's a combo of things I think more than 1 thing, the 1st line looks for second chances. They play a possession game, Ehlers is more likely to streak down the wing take a shot and then go off. The 1st line gets hemmed in their end. It all adds up.
But what I DON'T think it is is Arniel saying to the team: "OK, everyone take short shifts except for Schief's line, you do what you want"
I think the Wings, Hawks and Ducks all want to take the next step and a vet like Nik probably looks super tantalizing to them.
Yeah it was a good question from @PhilJets . Time is pretty valuable to GM's. And Ehlers saves you the risk and 5 years of developing an impact top six forward (if you are drafting outside the top 10). Will cost lots of cap i guess.
You could even add in the Sabres who desperately need to figure shit out - the Blues who look like they just need a reload. There are a bunch of teams I think that could use a guy like Nik to boost their chances at playoffs.
was gonna say, the Jets have the 5th most cap-space in the league next year at 37M. the 4 key pieces that need a contract are Samberg, Ehlers, Vilardi and Pionk. I can see ~20M combined for the first 3. Then Pionk i have a bit of a tough read on a new deal. AFP Analytics for instance have him at 7M. With Samberg's emergence as a 2nd pair anchor i think they don't have to break the bank on Pionk, so go 27M for the 4.
