Ehlers why Didnt We Trade Him

[Flair Hay]

We are talking 5v5 only. He's already on pp1, you.dont get to add anything to those points.

That's accounted for already, yes. I accounted for him being on a more average PP1 as oppose to our PP that is a step ahead of everyone this year.

It's AI so it's definitely not an exact science but it saves me a lot of time and that matters to me haha. Its going off of studies from Natural Stat Trick but it lines up. I'm sure there are lots of subjective tinkers one can make to sway the grand point totals.

It's a fun tool if nothing else. I use the AI on X (i still call it twitter) to kill all kinds of time on nonsense Jets related questions like this

 

[bustamente]

Jets in all probability offer Nik the best contract especially if he has a good playoffs and the team does well, will it be enough? or does he want to leave for supposed greener pastures. It's going to an interesting off season for him and a host of other Jets

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Nobody has brought up any solution to what happens if we lose him? Where does our replacement come from? We don't have internal options, players don't come here in FA, we're number one on no trade clause lists.

We can't afford to let star players walk over a million dollars per season. Is he a perfect player? God no, but he is miles better than anyone we can replace him with. If we are trying to win with the Scheif/Morrissey/Helle core, he is a better option than anything else we are going to find.

 

[Jets 31]

Nobody has brought up any solution to what happens if we lose him? Where does our replacement come from? We don't have internal options, players don't come here in FA, we're number one on no trade clause lists.

We can't afford to let star players walk over a million dollars per season. Is he a perfect player? God no, but he is miles better than anyone we can replace him with. If we are trying to win with the Scheif/Morrissey/Helle core, he is a better option than anything else we are going to find.

Agreed and this is why i think Chevy signs him but it won't be a team friendly discount.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Why doesn't it make sense? If the GM doesn't feel a player is worth more money why should he pay the contract? If the cap actually does go up past next season which I highly doubt, then that money can be allocated on different player assets that the GM feels are a better use of cap space.

It is setting a bar based on a player and a cap from 2 years earlier.

Pay the player what he is worth today. Not based on what a more valuable player negotiated some time in the past.

You can't say that Scheifele (or Helle) is our most valuable player and therefore no player can be paid more than him. That was then. This is now.

I'm not saying pay Ehlers or anyone else more or less than Scheifele. I'm saying that Scheifele's contract is not what you are competing against to sign your players today. Pay market value - in today's market.

There is politically generated uncertainty at a much higher than normal level right now. I have no idea how that is going to affect these issues going forward. There may be new conservatism, especially on the part of the Canadian teams. Or not.

 

[KingBogo]

It is setting a bar based on a player and a cap from 2 years earlier.

Pay the player what he is worth today. Not based on what a more valuable player negotiated some time in the past.

You can't say that Scheifele (or Helle) is our most valuable player and therefore no player can be paid more than him. That was then. This is now.

I'm not saying pay Ehlers or anyone else more or less than Scheifele. I'm saying that Scheifele's contract is not what you are competing against to sign your players today. Pay market value - in today's market.

There is politically generated uncertainty at a much higher than normal level right now. I have no idea how that is going to affect these issues going forward. There may be new conservatism, especially on the part of the Canadian teams. Or not.

I think it is setting a bar on what you think a player is worth. If Chevy thinks Ehlers is not worth either Scheifele or Helly, he may be fine letting him walk and using the cap space to use as he sees fit to add other players. I think Connor is the player they will break the bank on, and then sign Samberg, Vilardi, Pionk, Perfetti all in the $6-$7.5 M range.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Jets in all probability offer Nik the best contract especially if he has a good playoffs and the team does well, will it be enough? or does he want to leave for supposed greener pastures. It's going to an interesting off season for him and a host of other Jets

For more than just Nik, a lot depends on what happens from here on.
We still have 6 pending UFAs at varying points on the depth chart.
And we have 4 pending RFAs. The RFAs can't simply walk but they can expect to be paid for their performances this year.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think it is setting a bar on what you think a player is worth. If Chevy thinks Ehlers is not worth either Scheifele or Helly, he may be fine letting him walk and using the cap space to use as he sees fit to add other players. I think Connor is the player they will break the bank on, and then sign Samberg, Vilardi, Pionk, Perfetti all in the $6-$7.5 M range.

Yes. Absolutely. Set the bar according to what a player is worth. But don't use the contracts signed at some point in the past as your yardstick. You have to go by today's market.

Years ago it was possible for players to have a stipulation in their contracts that they would be the highest paid player on the team. I can't remember who or when, but I recall hearing of such a thing. If another player signed for more, then the guy got a raise. If they traded for a player making more, the guy got a raise. Current contracts are not allowed to do such a thing.

What Nik is worth this off-season will be affected by the rest of this season. Does he stay healthy? Does he play well in the PO? These will affect what he can expect in FA and they will affect what Chevy is willing to offer.

In absolute terms is he worth more than Scheifele? No. If he had signed at the same time as Scheifele and Helle I think his number would have been around 7-7.5. But the cap has risen quite a bit since then. A rising tide floats all boats.

 

[bustamente]

For more than just Nik, a lot depends on what happens from here on.
We still have 6 pending UFAs at varying points on the depth chart.
And we have 4 pending RFAs. The RFAs can't simply walk but they can expect to be paid for their performances this year.

Chevy has his work cut out for him this off season, who he want's to keep, who he cuts loose, who wants to stay, and more importantly who gets what.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Yes. Absolutely. Set the bar according to what a player is worth. But don't use the contracts signed at some point in the past as your yardstick. You have to go by today's market.

Years ago it was possible for players to have a stipulation in their contracts that they would be the highest paid player on the team. I can't remember who or when, but I recall hearing of such a thing. If another player signed for more, then the guy got a raise. If they traded for a player making more, the guy got a raise. Current contracts are not allowed to do such a thing.

What Nik is worth this off-season will be affected by the rest of this season. Does he stay healthy? Does he play well in the PO? These will affect what he can expect in FA and they will affect what Chevy is willing to offer.

In absolute terms is he worth more than Scheifele? No. If he had signed at the same time as Scheifele and Helle I think his number would have been around 7-7.5. But the cap has risen quite a bit since then. A rising tide floats all boats.

When was that?

 

[10Ducky10]

It is setting a bar based on a player and a cap from 2 years earlier.

Pay the player what he is worth today. Not based on what a more valuable player negotiated some time in the past.

You can't say that Scheifele (or Helle) is our most valuable player and therefore no player can be paid more than him. That was then. This is now.

I'm not saying pay Ehlers or anyone else more or less than Scheifele. I'm saying that Scheifele's contract is not what you are competing against to sign your players today. Pay market value - in today's market.

There is politically generated uncertainty at a much higher than normal level right now. I have no idea how that is going to affect these issues going forward. There may be new conservatism, especially on the part of the Canadian teams. Or not.

Without Scheif, the Jets are shit.
Without Ehlers, the Jets are not shit.
You may disagree but you would be wrong.
8.5m is too much if you ask me.

 

[Flair Hay]

Without Scheif, the Jets are shit.
Without Ehlers, the Jets are not shit.
You may disagree but you would be wrong.
8.5m is too much if you ask me.

I think most people wouldn't need to agree or disagree on something as binary as this, they expand and add a little context. Been lots of that in this thread today.

 

[10Ducky10]

I think most people wouldn't need to agree or disagree on something as binary as this, they expand and add a little context. Been lots of that in this thread today.

Okay, when Scheif is out, our offense takes a dive.
When Ehlers is out, it doesn't.
Next to Helle, Scheif is the player we don't want to miss games.
I know you are a big Ehlers booster and I want him to re-sign, but not at over 8.5m.

 

[KingBogo]

I think most people wouldn't need to agree or disagree on something as binary as this, they expand and add a little context. Been lots of that in this thread today.

Sometimes when having to make decisions you need to be really black and white on what is most important. I don't think Chevy believes Ehlers is the most important ingredient for this team. Where he ranks him, I would guess is lower than where many posters have him.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Okay, when Scheif is out, our offense takes a dive.
When Ehlers is out, it doesn't.
Next to Helle, Scheif is the player we don't want to miss games.
I know you are a big Ehlers booster and I want him to re-sign, but not at over 8.5m.

Disagree. Would rather play without Schief then morrissey.

 

[Flair Hay]

Okay, when Scheif is out, our offense takes a dive.
When Ehlers is out, it doesn't.
Next to Helle, Scheif is the player we don't want to miss games.
I know you are a big Ehlers booster and I want him to re-sign, but not at over 8.5m.

Then we agree on the last part.

No arguing Scheif is more valuable than Ehlers.

My argument is that if the difference between letting Ehlers get away and him staying is having to pay him as much as our two most valuable players, then I don't think its a bad move. No one is batting an eye about going 9.5 for Connor. Ehlers is a different player but just as strong offensively. He just has a less valuable role on our team.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Then we agree on the last part.

No arguing Scheif is more valuable than Ehlers.

My argument is that if the difference between letting Ehlers get away and him staying is having to pay him as much as our two most valuable players, then I don't think its a bad move. No one is batting an eye about going 9.5 for Connor. Ehlers is a different player but just as strong offensively. He just has a less valuable role on our team.

Yep role. But, we rely on kc to be our leading goal scorer he has been given a role where he is top 5 in scoring. Ultimately, people care more about absolute numbers than point per minute and extrapolation.
Whether ehlers could do it is less important than jets haven’t wanted to give him role.

 

[Flair Hay]

Sometimes when having to make decisions you need to be really black and white on what is most important. I don't think Chevy believes Ehlers is the most important ingredient for this team. Where he ranks him, I would guess is lower than where many posters have him.

His talent vs value of role is definitely not the same. Probably the biggest reason for the debate.

 

[10Ducky10]

Then we agree on the last part.

No arguing Scheif is more valuable than Ehlers.

My argument is that if the difference between letting Ehlers get away and him staying is having to pay him as much as our two most valuable players, then I don't think its a bad move. No one is batting an eye about going 9.5 for Connor. Ehlers is a different player but just as strong offensively. He just has a less valuable role on our team.

Connor has proved he can score more than 65 points in a season multiple times. We are still waiting for Nik to do that.
If you are going to argue that he is better than Connor, I am out of this debate.

 

[KingBogo]

His talent vs value of role is definitely not the same. Probably the biggest reason for the debate.

The problem for Ehlers, is that his talent is never what a team leans on to have playoff success. Once things really start to grind teams need strength down the middle, high end play from top defenseman and goaltending. The most effective wingers are players like Stone who play a heavy game or the truly elite point getters like Kuch. Talented perimeter players like Ehlers tend to get snuffed out.

 

[bustamente]

I have Nik in my top 5-6 and definitely a guy that needs to be re signed, I see no one in the minors filling his role or point production

 

[scelaton]

Sometimes when having to make decisions you need to be really black and white on what is most important. I don't think Chevy believes Ehlers is the most important ingredient for this team. Where he ranks him, I would guess is lower than where many posters have him.

That's a nice, simple way to put it. I would agree that Ehlers is not the most important ingredient, but he is extremely important to the Jets offense, 5v5 and PP. They are not a SC contender without him IMO and that is why he is still around this season.

I don't put nearly as much weight in short playoff series or believe in the Justin Williams playoff mythology of mediocre players suddenly elevating their games. Random shit happens in short series to players like Helle and Ehlers and Nik will get paid plenty in UFA regardless.

There are two questions pertinent to Ehlers next year and beyond:
1) What would it take to keep him and what are the risks to keeping him?
2)Would he stay even if he were offered a competitive contract?

A-1) Any talk of offering him <$8M AAV at this point is absurd. He will easily get that and more in free agency and it would just add to his sense of being undervalued here (which has been true till this season IMO).
As GM, Chevy has a hard decision to make re length of contract vs his durability over a long contract and I am sure that is why he is balking.

A-2) I've said for quite a while now that he likely feel he could play more, produce more and make more money on another team. This is the first year when his value seems to have been upped, but he still gets fewer minutes 5v5 than most other players of his calibre.

The X factor here is the winning ways and team chemistry on the Jets, which is unprecedented in 2.0 history. Players want to play, they want to be valued, they want to make money, but most of all (aside from the mercenaries) they want to WIN. That will make him think twice about leaving if Chevy's offer is competitive.

 

[Buffdog]

Regarding usage....

At 5v5 this season, Ehlers is averaging 16.27 shifts per game. Connor averages 17.62 shifts per game. If Ehlers wants more ice time, he should take slightly longer shifts

As for the line combos, nobody wants to play with Ehlers, including Schief

 

[KingBogo]

That's a nice, simple way to put it. I would agree that Ehlers is not the most important ingredient, but he is extremely important to the Jets offense, 5v5 and PP. They are not a SC contender without him IMO and that is why he is still around this season.

I don't put nearly as much weight in short playoff series or believe in the Justin Williams playoff mythology of mediocre players suddenly elevating their games. Random shit happens in short series to players like Helle and Ehlers and Nik will get paid plenty in UFA regardless.

There are two questions pertinent to Ehlers next year and beyond:
1) What would it take to keep him and what are the risks to keeping him?
2)Would he stay even if he were offered a competitive contract?

A-1) Any talk of offering him <$8M AAV at this point is absurd. He will easily get that and more in free agency and it would just add to his sense of being undervalued here (which has been true till this season IMO).
As GM, Chevy has a hard decision to make re length of contract vs his durability over a long contract and I am sure that is why he is balking.

A-2) I've said for quite a while now that he likely feel he could play more, produce more and make more money on another team. This is the first year when his value seems to have been upped, but he still gets fewer minutes 5v5 than most other players of his calibre.

The X factor here is the winning ways and team chemistry on the Jets, which is unprecedented in 2.0 history. Players want to play, they want to be valued, they want to make money, but most of all (aside from the mercenaries) they want to WIN. That will make him think twice about leaving if Chevy's offer is competitive.

As much as I like Ehlers, he would be the high end player I would be most comfortable to lose. I certainly wouldn't want to over pay for him. He has never actually produced big offensive numbers (career high 64 points) and he is now 29, so future numbers will most likely decline. Perimeter wingers even if gifted are far down the line of what is most important to teams winning. What happens when his speed takes a hit, he could very quickly become an anchor contract?

 

[GNP]

I see we have a divided electorate here on the Ehlers contract.

I think it’s fair to say, by reading all these posts, that posters here would very much like to see him signed, and most all like Nik. Most all believe he makes the Jets a better team, including myself.

It’s a matter of how much, and the range I see is from $ 7.5 mil (low) to $ 9.0 mil at the high end.


I’d be ok with signing Ehlers for $ 8.5 mil over 6 years, and anything over that, it gets a bit dicey.

I should add, I think he could get around $ 9.5 mil as a UFA out in the free market. Do we want to pay market value ???

Another way of looking at it, is we’re up about $ 2 mil on both of Helle’s contract and Scheifele, ( underpaid) so we could overpay a bit on Nik, and it will all wash out pretty good, although that may anger some players or posters.

I’d just hate to lose the guy over just a 1/2 a million bucks, and let him walk.