Ehlers why Didnt We Trade Him

[Flair Hay]

I don't think Ehlers is even top 5 in contributing to the success of the team. The entire 1st line, Samberg, Morrissey and Hellebuyck all mean more. I'd also put Lowry into consideration.

I think Scheifele Morrissey and Hellebuyck are given their positions, Connor plays a bigger role and more durable so that's fair with his consistently larger output.

Vilardi is really questionable considering how much Ehlers out produces him when healthy with both having injury concerns over past 3-4 years.

Samberg I'd have a tough time arguing as well as he is arguably a top pair calibre dman and it's tough not to take them over a top line winger, especially come playoff time.

All this can be true and we can still benefit greatly and want to keep him if the price is reasonable. What he has contributed and what he easily would contribute have been two different things. Do we want to let go of our 6th most valuable player?

 

[Jets 31]

Stfu already about Desired destination nonsense.. pieces that left here weren't good fits and Cancers in the locker room... we have most are roster on favorable contracts and had no problems getting guys to waive in the past... Chevy just doesn't fold and over pay like almost every other team.. u guys seem to think because we didn't land any major center in trades deadline it was because of your foolish delusions.. Chevy only had 2 guys in mind if that and other teams folded and over paid

Don't understand why all of your posts are so angry, lighten up a little dude.

 

[Flair Hay]

If people think he is as good as Connor and he thinks that he is walking to an opportunity where he can prove it.

Could very well be true and that's something a bit more money won't change here

 

[DRW204]

I think Scheifele Morrissey and Hellebuyck are given their positions, Connor plays a bigger role and more durable so that's fair with his consistently larger output.

Vilardi is really questionable considering how much Ehlers out produces him when healthy with both having injury concerns over past 3-4 years.

Samberg I'd have a tough time arguing as well as he is arguably a top pair calibre dman and it's tough not to take them over a top line winger, especially come playoff time.

All this can be true and we can still benefit greatly and want to keep him if the price is reasonable. What he has contributed and what he easily would contribute have been two different things. Do we want to let go of our 6th most valuable player?

i can't put vilardi ahead of samberg or ehlers. vilardi should be producing way more than ehlers in my view given the TOI differences on the year, and quality of players they play with.
after helle (gap), scheifele, morrissey and connor: id have it samberg>ehlers>vilardi. this team went undefeated w/o Lowry, and his 2nd half has been pedestrian tbh. so id have to think about that one a bit more.

 

[TS Quint]

Scheifele's. I thought it is pretty well known that playing with better players has a more positive impact on raw production than playing checking lines has negative.

Like would we expect Connor to score more points playing 15 mins/game instead of 20 with Namestnikov and Perfetti than he does now?

Maybe that's not what you are saying but that's what I'm inferring from the question.

This gets brought up so often with no context. Maybe you can fill me in. What are the impacts of linemates vs competition using numbers?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If he does that why would we want him?

For the same reason we have always wanted him - regular season performance and bums in the seats. PO may be the most important thing, but they are not the only thing. And you need to get into them before you can succeed in them.

 

[TS Quint]

Even the most optimistic view of Ehlers, as the above certainly is, we’re still talking about “pace”.

Here’s three players 5v5 production and minutes over the last few years. Which one do you want to give 9M to?

Player A: 2387 minutes, 2.51 p/60
Player B: 1600 minutes, 2.48 p/60
Player C: 2691 minutes, 2.41 p/60

Using p/60 might be the worst way to determine a contract value. Almost useless.

 

[TS Quint]

i can't put vilardi ahead of samberg or ehlers. vilardi should be producing way more than ehlers in my view given the TOI differences on the year, and quality of players they play with.
after helle (gap), scheifele, morrissey and connor: id have it samberg>ehlers>vilardi. this team went undefeated w/o Lowry, and his 2nd half has been pedestrian tbh. so id have to think about that one a bit more.

I think you are discounting what Vilardi is being asked to do. It's his work without the puck that is most important. There is only one puck and with 55 and 81 out there already he has found a way to make big contributions without it.

 

[KingBogo]

Internal pay limits don't work when the cap starts skyrocketing.

We struggle to bring in any kind of stars through FA or trade as people don't want to play here. If you can keep him you should be fine with overpaying by a bit to keep him. We can't replace him.

The cap isn't going to skyrocket. That was an optimistic forecast by the NHL and the NHLPA before the current economic and political circumstances. Players still get 50% of revenue, a likely recession, growing unemployment, trade wars and growing political tensions might find revenue dropping quickly for the NHL.

 

[TS Quint]

I think Scheifele Morrissey and Hellebuyck are given their positions, Connor plays a bigger role and more durable so that's fair with his consistently larger output.

Vilardi is really questionable considering how much Ehlers out produces him when healthy with both having injury concerns over past 3-4 years.

Samberg I'd have a tough time arguing as well as he is arguably a top pair calibre dman and it's tough not to take them over a top line winger, especially come playoff time.

All this can be true and we can still benefit greatly and want to keep him if the price is reasonable. What he has contributed and what he easily would contribute have been two different things. Do we want to let go of our 6th most valuable player?

Go try to have Ehlers do what Vilardi does on the ice. He's a guy who make others look better.

Does Ehelrs make anyone look a whole lot better? The possession beast, the advanced stat darling but all I hear is there is no one helping him, Perfetti and Ehlers don't click, Namestnikov isn't good enough. With some of these numbers being thrown around I feel like Ehlers should be making his line work. He has a good offensive player in Perfetti to work with. He has a sold two way center to help get him the puck. Why does that line get shut down for long periods with such skill Vs other teams weaker competition?

It just seem like there is a point where people are unintentionally saying he has huge holes in his game that needs to be filled by top line player to make him work. Maybe he isn't the line driver that his legend has become.

I don't want to let him go over a reasonable contract but this $9m talk is getting out of hand. At that point he better be dragging Perfetti to a 60+ point season and making that line wrok on a consistent basis. He's clearly a contributor to the positive. Maybe just not as much as some people here are saying he would be if the team revolves around him like is being suggested in this thread. I' just don't buy:

"I don't think we are the #1 team in the league or have the best powerplay in the league without Ehlers in the lineup."

 

[Flair Hay]

I asked AI for a summary in 5 sentences or less:

For someone asking me to explain how factors of ice time, quality of competition and quality of linemates affect production, can you explain in 5 sentences or less?


Ice time directly impacts production—more minutes, like moving from 15 to 20 per game, increase scoring opportunities, potentially boosting points by 20-30%, though efficiency may dip slightly due to fatigue. Quality of competition affects output by reducing chances against tougher opponents; facing top lines versus middle-six foes can cut scoring rates by 10-20% due to stronger defense and goaltending. Quality of linemates, such as upgrading from a 40-point center to an 80-point playmaker, can lift a player’s production by 10-15% through better setups and chemistry. For example, Nikolaj Ehlers’ points rise with Mark Scheifele but drop against elite matchups, showing teammate quality often offsets competition to a degree. Balancing these factors, a star winger might gain more from top-line minutes and linemates than they lose to tougher foes, but the net effect depends on their skill and adaptability.



What my TLDR is from this is that usually upgrading linemates means more ice time in addition to better efficiency but if it meant facing much tougher quality of opponent the ice time would be the significant difference between the two situations

 

[Flair Hay]

Go try to have Ehlers do what Vilardi does on the ice. He's a guy who make others look better.

Does Ehelrs make anyone look a whole lot better? The possession beast, the advanced stat darling but all I hear is there is no one helping him, Perfetti and Ehlers don't click, Namestnikov isn't good enough. With some of these numbers being thrown around I feel like Ehlers should be making his line work. He has a good offensive player in Perfetti to work with. He has a sold two way center to help get him the puck. Why does that line get shut down for long periods with such skill Vs other teams weaker competition?

It just seem like there is a point where people are unintentionally saying he has huge holes in his game that needs to be filled by top line player to make him work. Maybe he isn't the line driver that his legend has become.

I don't want to let him go over a reasonable contract but this $9m talk is getting out of hand. At that point he better be dragging Perfetti to a 60+ point season and making that line wrok on a consistent basis. He's clearly a contributor to the positive. Maybe just not as much as some people here are saying he would be if the team revolves around him like is being suggested in this thread. I' just don't buy:

"I don't think we are the #1 team in the league or have the best powerplay in the league without Ehlers in the lineup."

Ehlers isnt Vilardi, and Vilardi isn't Ehlers. You can't ask Connor to do what Vilardi does either. They both bring valuable skill sets.

Ironically Ehlers makes Scheifele a lot more efficient when they have played together over the years. But Scheif plays with Connor and thats that, their line has done well this year so its been out of sight out of mind. But if you're asking who does Ehlers make look better? Everyone he plays with. At least makes almost everyone he pkays with more efficient with him than without him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You make some real good points, and I fully agree with them. I have to ask myself, if I was the owner, would I want to pony up $ 9 mil per year, over 6 or 7 years, considering his injury history, and that he rarely plays a full hockey season. It is a huge risk, if you put yourself in the owners shoes.

As much as I love Ehlers, and watching him play, I’m not sure I’d take the gamble on him ?? I’d surely go $ 7 on him, but above that, I’m not sure ? It’s risky.

It's not just the injuries that concern me about him. His game is heavily reliant on his skating, how effective does he remain when he inevitably loses a step in his 30's?

You make too much of his injury history. Its not good, but there are lots of players as bad or worse. They keep getting signed and for big money if they are good.

Given the new cap, every other GM in the league would outbid you for him at 7.

I'm a lot more concerned with @surixon 's point. I wouldn't sign him for a day over 6 years and I would much prefer 5. But, you never know for sure. He and P Kane play similar styles and have similar physiques. Kane is still playing very well at 36 YO. Kane was always more durable though. So, who knows?

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

The cap isn't going to skyrocket. That was an optimistic forecast by the NHL and the NHLPA before the current economic and political circumstances. Players still get 50% of revenue, a likely recession, growing unemployment, trade wars and growing political tensions might find revenue dropping quickly for the NHL.

That's a fair argument, I was just going off the NHL projections but you are right that is a very realistic possibility.

 

[Jet]

For the same reason we have always wanted him - regular season performance and bums in the seats. PO may be the most important thing, but they are not the only thing. And you need to get into them before you can succeed in them.

So you're saying you're happy spending north of 9 million dollars for a guy who will never help us in the playoffs? A guy who is injury prone and aging?

Thank God you're not the GM

 

[Flair Hay]

So you're saying you're happy spending north of 9 million dollars for a guy who will never help us in the playoffs? A guy who is injury prone and aging?

Thank God you're not the GM

I think most people understand if Ehlers wants what Scheifele or Helle make he is likely gone.

That said, Scheifele and Helle are aging too and we signed them lol

I think it's pretty common for those flasher players who struggle in playoffs to get better with age. Maybe less dynamic but more calculated, patient, resilient, etc. That may not happen with Ehlers but it's not a closed case that he will always suck in the playoffs either...

If he sucks this year then I'll be much more on board with going a different path.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Bottom line is if Ehlers wants more than Scheif, let him walk.

That doesn't make any sense. That is not a way that teams can allocate money. You could say that, in your opinion, Ehlers isn't worth any more than 8.5 mil per, based on the expected cap. Perfectly valid opinion. But not because that is what Scheif gets. Scheif signed for what he signed for based on the cap at that time. The whole scale has moved since then. Just like 70 is the new 50 in human years, 9mil is the new 7mil in the NHL. Or whatever the actual numbers end up being. You are going to be seeing a lot more contracts coming in at 12+ in the next year or 2.

 

[TS Quint]

I asked AI for a summary in 5 sentences or less:

For someone asking me to explain how factors of ice time, quality of competition and quality of linemates affect production, can you explain in 5 sentences or less?


Ice time directly impacts production—more minutes, like moving from 15 to 20 per game, increase scoring opportunities, potentially boosting points by 20-30%, though efficiency may dip slightly due to fatigue. Quality of competition affects output by reducing chances against tougher opponents; facing top lines versus middle-six foes can cut scoring rates by 10-20% due to stronger defense and goaltending. Quality of linemates, such as upgrading from a 40-point center to an 80-point playmaker, can lift a player’s production by 10-15% through better setups and chemistry. For example, Nikolaj Ehlers’ points rise with Mark Scheifele but drop against elite matchups, showing teammate quality often offsets competition to a degree. Balancing these factors, a star winger might gain more from top-line minutes and linemates than they lose to tougher foes, but the net effect depends on their skill and adaptability.



What my TLDR is from this is that usually upgrading linemates means more ice time in addition to better efficiency but if it meant facing much tougher quality of opponent the ice time would be the significant difference between the two situations

Sounds like he would increase his points by 10%.

 

[Flair Hay]

Sounds like he would increase his points by 10%.

Considering he is playing at an 80 point pace now, 90-95 is a 12-18% increase if you account for a 30% PP not being a sustainable number.

Ehlers with Scheifele and Vilardi, playing 20:15 TOI/game and PP1 (22% PP), would produce 90-95 points (33-37 goals, 53-58 assists) over 82 games, balancing his upgrade to Scheifele with a slight efficiency drop from increased minutes.

 

[KingBogo]

I think most people understand if Ehlers wants what Scheifele or Helle make he is likely gone.

That said, Scheifele and Helle are aging too and we signed them lol

I think it's pretty common for those flasher players who struggle in playoffs to get better with age. Maybe less dynamic but more calculated, patient, resilient, etc. That may not happen with Ehlers but it's not a closed case that he will always suck in the playoffs either...

If he sucks this year then I'll be much more on board with going a different path.

I think the biggest risk with Ehlers is as he loses his speed with age. I don't think he will be able to compensate for it in other ways, as well as some other players. I'd love to keep him, but the negotiating slow play seems to indicate that Chevy doesn't plan to open the vault for him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Defensive matchups tend to even out over the course of a season.

What about looking at D pairs played with? Which line gets Morrissey more etc?

 

[KingBogo]

That doesn't make any sense. That is not a way that teams can allocate money. You could say that, in your opinion, Ehlers isn't worth any more than 8.5 mil per, based on the expected cap. Perfectly valid opinion. But not because that is what Scheif gets. Scheif signed for what he signed for based on the cap at that time. The whole scale has moved since then. Just like 70 is the new 50 in human years, 9mil is the new 7mil in the NHL. Or whatever the actual numbers end up being. You are going to be seeing a lot more contracts coming in at 12+ in the next year or 2.

Why doesn't it make sense? If the GM doesn't feel a player is worth more money why should he pay the contract? If the cap actually does go up past next season which I highly doubt, then that money can be allocated on different player assets that the GM feels are a better use of cap space.

 

[Jet]

I think most people understand if Ehlers wants what Scheifele or Helle make he is likely gone.

That said, Scheifele and Helle are aging too and we signed them lol

I think it's pretty common for those flasher players who struggle in playoffs to get better with age. Maybe less dynamic but more calculated, patient, resilient, etc. That may not happen with Ehlers but it's not a closed case that he will always suck in the playoffs either...

If he sucks this year then I'll be much more on board with going a different path.

Me too, and just for the record I'm not anti Ehlers I'm just pro Jets

I really hope Nik crushes it in the post season, that's the best scenario.

 

[TS Quint]

Considering he is playing at an 80 point pace now, 90-95 is a 12-18% increase if you account for a 30% PP not being a sustainable number.

Ehlers with Scheifele and Vilardi, playing 20:15 TOI/game and PP1 (22% PP), would produce 90-95 points (33-37 goals, 53-58 assists) over 82 games, balancing his upgrade to Scheifele with a slight efficiency drop from increased minutes.

We are talking 5v5 only. He's already on pp1, you.dont get to add anything to those points.

 

[KingBogo]

Considering he is playing at an 80 point pace now, 90-95 is a 12-18% increase if you account for a 30% PP not being a sustainable number.

Ehlers with Scheifele and Vilardi, playing 20:15 TOI/game and PP1 (22% PP), would produce 90-95 points (33-37 goals, 53-58 assists) over 82 games, balancing his upgrade to Scheifele with a slight efficiency drop from increased minutes.

That is a lot of ifs. Bottom line is Ehlers has never hit 30 goals or 65 points and he is 29 years old. He may do it this season, but he hasn't got there yet and there is no guarantee he will. In the real world absolute numbers are what counts, as players actually need to do it on the ice to count towards team success. And that is not even considering his annual disappearing act in the playoffs.

I'd love to keep Ehlers as he is a benefit to the team, but I don't think any team is going to pay him more than what he has actually produced on the ice.