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Effect of Goaltender Height Trends on Drafting

Pavel Buchnevich

Pavel Buchnevich

Pavel Buchnevich "The Fake"
Dec 8, 2013
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New York
Will teams adjust when drafting to a trend of shorter goalies having more success than taller goalies in recent times?

NHL average height for a goalie last season was 6’2 3/4. Rounding up, that’s 6’3.

Top 10 goalies in SV% last season.

Goalies taller than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Ullmark (6’5)
Hellebuyck (6’4)
Oettinger (6’5)

NHL goalies shorter than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Gustavsson (6’2)
Swayman (6’2)
Saros (5’11)
Georgiyev (6’1)
Shestyorkin (6’1)

I know, I know, Vasilevskiy is better than some of these goalies, as might be one or two others, but if you look at the next 12 in SV% (can’t do 10 because of a tie), 6 are shorter than 6’3, while only 5 are taller than 6’3.

Also notably none of these 22 are taller than 6’5.

Shorter than average height goalies are becoming in-vogue while taller than 6’5 goalies are becoming extinct.

Should teams be thinking about this when they draft goalies?
 
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I’m a bit confused by the premise here. Are taller goalies actually underrepresented among the save percentage leaders or are there just not that many out there who are that tall? What is the median height for an NHL goalie prospect?

For example: “if you look at the next 12 in SV% (can’t do 10 because of a tie), 6 are shorter than 6’3, while only 5 are taller than 6’3.” Considering human beings (and those trained as goalies) are much less likely to be above 6’3, the taller goalies are actually overrepresented.
 
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If you like a goalie enough, just take him. Columbus has 5'11" Ivanov in the system, a guy noone talks about but has put up numbers everywhere. Guys like him wont get any benefit of the doubt until the do it in the NHL. Meanwhile 6'5" Tarasov will get that benefit for a couple more years until he either figures it out or simply busts completely.

But if we listen to Machinehead, a fan of a team carried by elite goalies they are the most overrated position and dont impact much so why bother drafting them :sarcasm:
 
Pavel Buchnevich said:
Will teams adjust when drafting to a trend of shorter goalies having more success than taller goalies in recent times?

NHL average height for a goalie last season was 6’2 3/4. Rounding up, that’s 6’3.

Top 10 goalies in SV% last season.

Goalies taller than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Ullmark (6’5)
Hellebuyck (6’4)
Oettinger (6’5)

NHL goalies shorter than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Gustavsson (6’2)
Swayman (6’2)
Saros (5’11)
Georgiyev (6’1)
Shestyorkin (6’1)

I know, I know, Vasilevskiy is better than some of these goalies, as might be one or two others, but if you look at the next 12 in SV% (can’t do 10 because of a tie), 6 are shorter than 6’3, while only 5 are taller than 6’3.

Also notably none of these 22 are taller than 6’5.

Shorter than average height goalies are becoming in-vogue while taller than 6’5 goalies are becoming extinct.

Should teams be thinking about this when they draft goalies?
Click to expand...
Not at all sold on the scouts argument I've heard on podcasts about discrimination against smaller goalies.

In the junior leagues, in international tournaments and on the European senior circuit, the factor does not make the difference.

The franchises prefer to bet on Topias Leinonen even if the goalkeeper has never been effective.

The argument I've heard the most is: in the NHL, only the big guys are successful.

Obviously, if from the selection, there are only big ...
 
Pavel Buchnevich said:
Will teams adjust when drafting to a trend of shorter goalies having more success than taller goalies in recent times?

NHL average height for a goalie last season was 6’2 3/4. Rounding up, that’s 6’3.

Top 10 goalies in SV% last season.

Goalies taller than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Ullmark (6’5)
Hellebuyck (6’4)
Oettinger (6’5)

NHL goalies shorter than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Gustavsson (6’2)
Swayman (6’2)
Saros (5’11)
Georgiyev (6’1)
Shestyorkin (6’1)

I know, I know, Vasilevskiy is better than some of these goalies, as might be one or two others, but if you look at the next 12 in SV% (can’t do 10 because of a tie), 6 are shorter than 6’3, while only 5 are taller than 6’3.

Also notably none of these 22 are taller than 6’5.

Shorter than average height goalies are becoming in-vogue while taller than 6’5 goalies are becoming extinct.

Should teams be thinking about this when they draft goalies?
Click to expand...

Taller goalies were drafted ahead of shorter goalies again this year so I don't know what your point is. Do you even know what extinct means? 6'2" is generally considered the cutoff when classifying goalies as being undersized as you are allowing a few huge goaltenders to raise the average. The mode for NHL goaltenders is 6'2" and the median is either 6'2" or 6'3". If there are more 6'2" goaltenders than any other height it would be a stretch to refer to them as being considered small for their position. So 3 of the top 10 SV% were from goalies under 6'2" and two of them were 6'1" lol.......no, picking shorter than average goalies is not in vogue.
 
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The bigger the better. Especially now that the tall guys move just as well as the small guys. This is a very recent movement and only really started with Vasilevskiy. Doesn't make life any easier for the smaller goalies. In my view, the best moving goalie in the NHL is currently 6'3 Spencer Knight and I'm not even sure it's close. He's the perfect athlete despite being a tall kid. There are still smaller goalies in the NHL and there will always be simply because for goalies the most important factor isn't talent or size...it's the head. All the talent and size in the world is useless if you can't put it together when it matters. So much is decided between the ears. It takes way more than talent and size to bring it every second of the game...over weeks, months, seasons. It's tough. You need to be able to track the puck for long times, you need a very short memory and you need to keep on working on your game to have all the answers in case you get figured out.

But no, being small is a disadvantage for goalies and teams aren't gonna prioritize smaller guys when drafting goalies. That is never gonna happen. If they like a smaller guy they're gonna draft him but when in doubt they're always gonna go with the bigger guy. That's not gonna change.
 
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One has to figure also that taller goalies have already been pre-selected long before the NHL draft. The taller goalie got picked for the AAA team in peewee and bantam, and (as long as they kept growing) for junior teams, etc, so by the time it comes to the NHL draft, there are already more taller goalies who have been playing and training at the higher levels already.
 
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Dustin Wolfe would have been a top 5 pick if he was 6’5. Instead, despite being the best CHL goalie every year he played, he still slipped to the 7th round. Even after winning the AHL goalie of the year twice in a row, there’s not as much hype around him as you’d think.

Devon Levi is another one.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich said:
Will teams adjust when drafting to a trend of shorter goalies having more success than taller goalies in recent times?

NHL average height for a goalie last season was 6’2 3/4. Rounding up, that’s 6’3.

Top 10 goalies in SV% last season.

Goalies taller than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Ullmark (6’5)
Hellebuyck (6’4)
Oettinger (6’5)

NHL goalies shorter than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Gustavsson (6’2)
Swayman (6’2)
Saros (5’11)
Georgiyev (6’1)
Shestyorkin (6’1)

I know, I know, Vasilevskiy is better than some of these goalies, as might be one or two others, but if you look at the next 12 in SV% (can’t do 10 because of a tie), 6 are shorter than 6’3, while only 5 are taller than 6’3.

Also notably none of these 22 are taller than 6’5.

Shorter than average height goalies are becoming in-vogue while taller than 6’5 goalies are becoming extinct.

Should teams be thinking about this when they draft goalies?
Click to expand...
"NHL average height for a goalie last season was 6’2 3/4. Rounding up, that’s 6’3."

Convenient, isn't it? Change it so that 6'3 is above, and 6'2 is below. That's 5 and 5. Chance it so that if you don't count 6'3, you don't count 6'2 either. 3 above, 3 below. This is especially relevant since the average height is likely to be inflated by shorter goalies pretending to be taller than they are, whereas tall goalies aren't expected to need to fake it so much. So I'd expect there to be more inches added to a 5'9 goalie's height than to a 6'6 goalie's height.

And the season before in top 10(played at least 40g):

6'1
6'3
6'4
6'6
6'5
6'2
6'3
5'10
6'4
6'2

You can see it already doesn't align with your assessment.

Hence, rather than a trend, looks like dubious methodology combined with an insufficient sample size.
 
Pavel Buchnevich said:
Will teams adjust when drafting to a trend of shorter goalies having more success than taller goalies in recent times?

NHL average height for a goalie last season was 6’2 3/4. Rounding up, that’s 6’3.

Top 10 goalies in SV% last season.

Goalies taller than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Ullmark (6’5)
Hellebuyck (6’4)
Oettinger (6’5)

NHL goalies shorter than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Gustavsson (6’2)
Swayman (6’2)
Saros (5’11)
Georgiyev (6’1)
Shestyorkin (6’1)

I know, I know, Vasilevskiy is better than some of these goalies, as might be one or two others, but if you look at the next 12 in SV% (can’t do 10 because of a tie), 6 are shorter than 6’3, while only 5 are taller than 6’3.

Also notably none of these 22 are taller than 6’5.

Shorter than average height goalies are becoming in-vogue while taller than 6’5 goalies are becoming extinct.

Should teams be thinking about this when they draft goalies?
Click to expand...
Is it possible to redo this with 6'2 as the average? And can you list all the goalies include the next 12?
 
First 2 goalies in this years draft.. Gajan 6'3 and Hrabal 7'8.

A guy like Suchanek wasn't even taken in redraft after being an all star. Milic went quite late in his second go round too. Those are the finalists of the U20.

I once read a great article about this on the IIHF...

Basically pointing out a lot of the best goalies at the world juniors were shorter and never drafted despite being the best of their age group. The theory being that, at 18 or 19, the shorter goalies (6 feet) are fully developed and playing at their peak already. While the taller guys are still working on coordination and growing into their bodies.

Not saying I agree 100% but it's a theory!

As far as NHL... I don't see many below 6 feet at all. Halak is an older generation and almost out of the NHL. Stalock is in the journeyman years of his career too. So that leaves Saros as the only starter under 6 feet tall.

Wolf may outplay Vladar and Markstrom who are both around 6'6 but it hasn't happened yet and dominating the AHL and CHL doesn't always mean 10 year NHL starter. I do think he looks great though!
 
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theslatcher said:
Damn, what do you feed the goalies in Czechia. :laugh:
Click to expand...
Dumplings! lol 6'6 and 215 pounds... BUT... to my theory, I noticed he got beat high consistently. He'd have 'his angle' but a good sniper still found the spot. Reminded me of '2 metre Koskinen'.. same thing, he'd be on his knees and puck in top shelf. Maybe the lowest percentage shot and that is what they leave open. As a goalie that big grows into their body they probably make up for those holes and 'angles'. I'm obviously not a goalie expert but feel it's become very mechanical and less athletic over the years. The days of Smith, Joseph, Hasek and Ranford flying around seem close to done now.
 
Teams prefer size when drafting. So when they hit, they are amazing. When they don't, all they have to fall back on is that size.

Smaller goalies are required to be much more sound to make it. They are faster and read plays quicker but struggle more with the puck luck aspect.

So what I see here is boom or bust VS higher floor lower ceiling (typically).
 
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Will teams adjust when drafting to a trend of taller goalies having more success than shorter goalies in recent times?

NHL average height for a goalie last season was 6’2 3/4. Rounding to 6’2.

Top 10 goalies in SV% last season.

Goalies taller than 6’2 (NHL.com)

Ullmark (6’5)
Hellebuyck (6’4)
Oettinger (6’5)
Samsonov (6'3)
Sorokin (6'3)

NHL goalies shorter than 6’2 (NHL.com)

Saros (5’11)
Georgiyev (6’1)
Shestyorkin (6’1)

I know, I know, Vasilevskiy is better than some of these goalies, as might be one or two others, but if you look at the next 12 in SV% (can’t do 10 because of a tie), only 3 are shorter than 6’2, while 4 are taller than 6’2.

Also notably none of these 22 are shorter than 5’11.

Taller than average height goalies are becoming in-vogue while shorter than 5'11 goalies are becoming extinct.

Should teams be thinking about this when they draft goalies?
 
Basic math principles tell you that you round up 3/4 to the next number. Doing otherwise is data manipulation. If you don’t like basic math principles and the data of what is happening in the NHL, maybe you should ask yourself why that is, don’t shoot the messenger for delivering the data to you.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich said:
Basic math principles tell you that you round up 3/4 to the next number. Doing otherwise is data manipulation. If you don’t like basic math principles and the data of what is happening in the NHL, maybe you should ask yourself why that is, don’t shoot the messenger for delivering the data to you.
Click to expand...

you can't just ignore everyone that is between 6'3 and 6'4. They are all above the average height.
 
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IMO the two best goalie prospects are Levi and Wolf.

I think size is important but tracking, flexibility, hand-eye coordination and skating edgework are more important qualities.
 
I've said this a bunch of times on the Leafs board when discussing goalies, If the goalie has the tools and has a .920sv%, who gives a f*** if he is say 2" below the norm. What should matter is if the puck stays out. There are a ton of monster goalies every year taken in the draft that had garbage numbers when drafted and didn't get any better.

I kept saying on the Leafs board that they need to take Dustin Wolf with their last pick in that draft. He had speed, all the fundamentals of a great goalie. He had elite numbers going into the draft and has nothing but elite numbers in every league since being drafted. Now he is arguably the best goalie prospect in the world. Not to mention, not every kid is done growing at 18. I think Carter Hart was 6' at the draft and is 6'2 now. Instead of taking a chance on a very talented goalie with elite numbers in junior, they took a 5'10 D man who will most likely never even get a sniff in the NHL in Loponen.

Saros is one of the best in the world at 5'11. Shesterkin is arguably the best in the league at 6'1. Quick in his prime was arguably a top 5 goalie at 6'1. Lundqvist is one of the best all time at 6'1. Even someone like Manny Legace was only 5'9 and had allstar calibre numbers for a few years.

Teams and scouts are stupid. It's the same as them passing on undersized forwards and D men over the years because they are 2-3" shorter than what they'd like to be and then made foolish a few years later when they become stars. Projectible skills and numbers should be what matters.
 
Pavel Buchnevich said:
Will teams adjust when drafting to a trend of shorter goalies having more success than taller goalies in recent times?

NHL average height for a goalie last season was 6’2 3/4. Rounding up, that’s 6’3.

Top 10 goalies in SV% last season.

Goalies taller than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Ullmark (6’5)
Hellebuyck (6’4)
Oettinger (6’5)

NHL goalies shorter than 6’3 (NHL.com)

Gustavsson (6’2)
Swayman (6’2)
Saros (5’11)
Georgiyev (6’1)
Shestyorkin (6’1)

I know, I know, Vasilevskiy is better than some of these goalies, as might be one or two others, but if you look at the next 12 in SV% (can’t do 10 because of a tie), 6 are shorter than 6’3, while only 5 are taller than 6’3.

Also notably none of these 22 are taller than 6’5.

Shorter than average height goalies are becoming in-vogue while taller than 6’5 goalies are becoming extinct.

Should teams be thinking about this when they draft goalies?
Click to expand...

So half of the top 12, half are above average height (middle) and the other half is below?

Sounds about right
 
I guess one hidden benefit of drafting smaller goalies, is you can get them in the later rounds, so you can spend your draft capital on other positions
 
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