Proposal: EDM/PHI

[flyers0909]

Not really. It’s just making it tomorrow’s problem instead of today’s.

Which has value. It allows the team to potentially make a veteran signing that year in FA or trade for expiring contracts at the deadline instead of having the same player take up $8.5M of the cap.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

If your talking about strictly value today, I'd disagree. Provorovs has additional value today because he is extremely good, and extremely cheap.

If you're talking about value overall, then you and I are in agreement. His value will never be higher than it is today simply because it's extremely unlikely that his performance will increase at the same rate that his pay will. Again, semantics.

You can’t say that, though, because you know it’s going to come around to bite you in the ass. ELC’s end and I’m not of the opinion that a player’s value immediately lowers once he signs his second deal which is effectively what you’re arguing here.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Which has value. It allows the team to potentially make a veteran signing that year in FA or trade for expiring contracts at the deadline instead of having the same player take up $8.5M of the cap.

That’s a misconception. Most fans don’t understand that with a deadline deal you can potentially add way more than they think because you’re only on the hook for what remains for the percentage remaining of the deal.

I would say it’s more dependant on a team’s long term outlook and what you expect the player to get going forward. ‘Well we’ve got this guy cheap for now but going forward we’re f***ed’. I think maybe you’re overrating the type of free agent that signs a one year deal. They aren’t the type of guy you usually need a lot of cap space for. Having Provorov cheap today doesn’t magically mean the Oilers could sign a really good free agent to 7x7 without making massive organizational changes.

The cap always comes back to collect. Always. GMs need to think long term.

 

[Starat327]

You can’t say that, though, because you know it’s going to come around to bite you in the ass. ELC’s end and I’m not of the opinion that a player’s value immediately lowers once he signs his second deal which is effectively what you’re arguing here.

What has more value. 70 point Draisatl on an ELC or 70 point Draisatl at 8.25?

 

[ChaoticOrange]

What has more value. 70 point Draisatl on an ELC or 70 point Draisatl at 8.25?

Depends on a lot of things, could be either. It’s Schrodinger’s Player. He could be signed to 12x8. He could suffer a major injury. He could become disenfranchised with the organization. His play could fall off a cliff. That’s a risk you take when a player signs long term.

The real value in a player other than what they bring on the ice is in the value of their contract long term, which is why a guy like Klefbom even after a bad season has a ton of value around the league.

 

[phlocky]

Why the in the world are we arguing Provo vs LD? Regardless of whether or not they are equal value Philly won't trade Provo so the point is moot.

I would gladly trade Patrick plus for LD but unless Provo is coming back (which he won't be) it just doesn't make sense for the Oilers. There really just isn't any deal to be made here

 

[Starat327]

Depends on a lot of things, could be either. It’s Schrodinger’s Player. He could be signed to 12x8. He could suffer a major injury. He could become disenfranchised with the organization. His play could fall off a cliff. That’s a risk you take when a player signs long term.

The real value in a player other than what they bring on the ice is in the value of their contract long term, which is why a guy like Klefbom even after a bad season has a ton of value around the league.

Its a real simple question to answer that doesnt require mental gymnastics to try and sidestep.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Its a real simple question to answer that doesnt require mental gymnastics to try and sidestep.

It’s not as simplistic as you’re trying to make it out to be. There’s a lot that goes into a contract. Rookie deals are nice because they buy a team time, nothing more - that doesn’t automatically make them more valuable, or else you’d see a ton more trades involving kids like Provorov because teams would offer the moon for them. All ELC’s end, that’s 100% fact.

I outright reject your notion that somehow Provorov has more value because he’s on a rookie deal, though. It’s simply not true no matter how easy you’re trying to frame it.

 

[Starat327]

It’s not as simplistic as you’re trying to make it out to be. There’s a lot that goes into a contract. Rookie deals are nice because they buy a team time, nothing more - that doesn’t automatically make them more valuable, or else you’d see a ton more trades involving kids like Provorov because teams would offer the moon for them. All ELC’s end, that’s 100% fact.

I outright reject your notion that somehow Provorov has more value because he’s on a rookie deal, though. It’s simply not true no matter how easy you’re trying to frame it.

Im not trying to say its the rookie deal that makes him more valuable. its his play relative to the cost you pay him. it doesnt matter if its a rookie deal, or an 8 year contract. If you are getting similar or better, levels of play from a comparable player, and are paying much, much less, there are very few instances i can think of where the player on the cheaper deal isnt more valuable. The topic i was discussing was value 'today' though, not future value - and the rookie contract does matter for that. It's precisely why no one trades prospects, because good players on short term contracts are much more valuable now and normally, in the future.

For example - Pacioretty's value 'today' is less than it was 6 months ago, because he has less term. However, his value now is probably less than what it will be at the deadline, assuming he has a half decent bounce back season.

For the purpose of this thread, Provorov has more value to me because hes a 21 year old 1D on a team desperate for defense, has 2 top 6 centers already, and he's making 925K a year currently.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Im not trying to say its the rookie deal that makes him more valuable. its his play relative to the cost you pay him. it doesnt matter if its a rookie deal, or an 8 year contract. If you are getting similar or better, levels of play from a comparable player, and are paying much, much less, there are very few instances i can think of where the player on the cheaper deal isnt more valuable. The topic i was discussing was value 'today' though, not future value - and the rookie contract does matter for that. It's precisely why no one trades prospects, because good players on short term contracts are much more valuable now and normally, in the future.

For example - Pacioretty's value 'today' is less than it was 6 months ago, because he has less term. However, his value now is probably less than what it will be at the deadline, assuming he has a half decent bounce back season.

For the purpose of this thread, Provorov has more value to me because hes a 21 year old 1D on a team desperate for defense, has 2 top 6 centers already, and he's making 925K a year currently.

The first two make sense. The last one doesn’t, I just don’t see it.

Pacioretty’s value is less today because he had a god awful season by his standards moreso than his term. Depends on the team getting him though. Some might see value in test driving him - I don’t.

While a guy like Draisaitl is overpaid by a bit, I think Provorov would be worth a lot more to me right now, today, if he was locked in at, say, 5.75x8 than on the last year of a rookie deal worrying about a money grubbing agent playing hardball or other oddities.

 

[Starat327]

The first two make sense. The last one doesn’t, I just don’t see it.

Pacioretty’s value is less today because he had a god awful season by his standards moreso than his term. Depends on the team getting him though. Some might see value in test driving him - I don’t.

While a guy like Draisaitl is overpaid by a bit, I think Provorov would be worth a lot more to me right now, today, if he was locked in at, say, 5.75x8 than on the last year of a rookie deal worrying about a money grubbing agent playing hardball or other oddities.

Pacioretty's value is due to a few things, his poor season being one of them, but his status as a 'rental' being the driving one. It happens all the time for players who have no term. GMs generally arent willing to pay big assets for someone they have little control over.

If Provorov was ending his 2nd deal, and was approaching UFA, i'd whole-heartedly agree with your last point But he's a RFA with no real bargaining chips. At the end of the day, his options are to sign the contract we offer, or go play in the KHL and not play NHL hockey until he's 28, or whatever age that works out to be. . See Andreas Athanasiou for how that usually works out. That being said, I think Provorov is a pretty safe bet to make 7 Million once this deal is up. Kid just keeps getting better year after year, and I dont the Flyers are dumb enough to try and hardball that deal.