Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] Darnell Nurse signs extension with the Oilers (8 years, $9.25M AAV) PART II

[Connor McConnor]

Teams can still win if their stars are overpaid by a few million. The 8 years isnt even that concerning to me considering the guy is an absolute athlete and workout freak.

Not sure why this thread hasn't been locked it's full of people bashing a guy for almost 100 pages now almost a year after the contract broke out. I said it from day one that he should have gotten ~$1.5-2M less but Edmonton played themselves when they didnt extend him earlier, that's what happens.

 

[GOilers88]

Oh I know there are a lot of dumb memes on here about him being a 'solid #2 or good #3' and I agree, he is a legitimate #1 and would be an utterly elite #2.

But I think that even 7 years from now there will be more than 10 teams who aren't paying their number 1 D man 9 million +. By which I mean, I don't think this is just 'getting out in front' of an emerging trend. I think that he and Seth Jones are both good D who are being paid like great D and I think that is going to be a problem. How much more money can you put into your D? Can you have another 9 or even 8 million dollar D? Probably not.

So now he doesn't just have to be a competent #1, he has to be a superlative one to justify the cost and I just don't see that in him.

Again I agree with your assessment. I don't think he ever becomes an elite #1 guy like his contract is going to dictate. I also look at it as the team has 3, maybe 4 years to win a cup. I personally don't think either McDavid or Draisaitl re-sign. Maybe if they win multiple cups in the next couple years, but I dont see that, and even still am skeptical that they'd stay. So I kind of view it in the same vein as the RNH and Hyman deals. Probably not the best contracts with term like that, but after the next three years, if they haven't made any noise I really don't think it matters who they have left and for what amounts. Its not crippling enough to prevent them from putting a supporting cast around them. The crippling ones are the Kassian's, and Turris' and Smith's, and Keith's.

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

Again I agree with your assessment. I don't think he ever becomes an elite #1 guy like his contract is going to dictate. I also look at it as the team has 3, maybe 4 years to win a cup. I personally don't think either McDavid or Draisaitl re-sign. Maybe if they win multiple cups in the next couple years, but I dont see that, and even still am skeptical that they'd stay. So I kind of view it in the same vein as the RNH and Hyman deals. Probably not the best contracts with term like that, but after the next three years, if they haven't made any noise I really don't think it matters who they have left and for what amounts. Its not crippling enough to prevent them from putting a supporting cast around them. The crippling ones are the Kassian's, and Turris' and Smith's, and Keith's.

I hear and understand that rationale, but I think it's a matter of kicking the can down the road.
Particularly when other moves haven't been 'all-in'.

Like I get that if 97/29 leave then the window is closed.

But eating the cost of an aging Hyman, Nuge, and Nurse might turn you into today's Sharks for a few years and that's a tough pill to swallow.

What I really don't understand is the fact that the Oilers haven't traded a 1st rounder in the McDavid era, and they bet on Smith and Koskinen. Why go budget and stress patience, and then out of the other side of your mouth sign these deals that are potentially poisoning the well for years 4-8 of the next 8 years? Seems incoherent.

 

[GOilers88]

I hear and understand that rationale, but I think it's a matter of kicking the can down the road.
Particularly when other moves haven't been 'all-in'.

Like I get that if 97/29 leave then the window is closed.

But eating the cost of an aging Hyman, Nuge, and Nurse might turn you into today's Sharks for a few years and that's a tough pill to swallow.

What I really don't understand is the fact that the Oilers haven't traded a 1st rounder in the McDavid era, and they bet on Smith and Koskinen. Why go budget and stress patience, and then out of the other side of your mouth sign these deals that are potentially poisoning the well for years 4-8 of the next 8 years? Seems incoherent.

For me, if McDrai leave and we haven't won a cup I don't think we ever win one in my lifetime so I don't even care if we become the Sharks. But I think Nuge and Hyman and Nurse at 5 and 9 mil arent as bad as Couture, Vlasic and EK and 8, 7 and 11.5 mil.

Obviously both scenarios suck, Im just indifferent towards whatever happens post McDrai if they dont win.

 

[ManofSteel55]

It's true, and I realize that it would have felt like a horrific step back to lose Nurse during McDavid and Draisaitl's time. But was it a gamble that you want to make for 8 years and more than 72 million? I think time is showing that the prevailing wisdom that it might not be the best move was correct.

Nurse even this year is still a 7M+ defenseman. He had an awful game last night and people are acting like that is the standard. But it isn't. So the option was to pay the only #1 defenseman we have had in 2 decades by 1-2M extra, or have no #1 defenseman.

 

[Goldenhands]

Weird... why did that 3rd defensemen:

• Finish 7th in Norris voting last year?
• In consideration for Canada's Olympic team? (he likely wasn't going to make it, but he was in the mix)
• Have a more positive EV xGF/GA and oiGF/GA than Adam Fox, despite playing on an inferior team, with an inferior partner?
• 10th in EVP over the last three years?
• 50th in EVP in a year where he's clearly struggling (noting 50th puts him in 2nd D-man territory)

You can say he's overpaid without getting into hyperbole.

Other than your opinion, do you have an actual argument (*any data?) to support it?

Eye test, I always said he was a good 3rd defenseman on a legit team and laughed hard when he got that insane contract. Kent Hugues literally killed Holland's reputation with that deal.

 

[Brent Burns]

What is this veiled Nurse discussion thread

 

[Sugi21]

Wait, you actually think paying Nurse more than Draisaitl is a good decision?

You're right about one thing. Top dmen are hard to find. Edmonton continues the search to this day.

Unfortunately that’s what the market was for Nurse and Drai will make more than Nurse in a few seasons when he’s a UFA

 

[Sugi21]

Nurse is not a top-dman...

Maybe not league wide but he’s the best one in Edmonton for a very long time

 

[Connor McConnor]

Eye test, I always said he was a good 3rd defenseman on a legit team and laughed hard when he got that insane contract. Kent Hugues literally killed Holland's reputation with that deal.

Good 3rd dman lmao. Your either extremely bias or don’t know hockey. Probably both based on how bad this post is and the vitriol you have.

 

[bucks_oil]

Eye test, I always said he was a good 3rd defenseman on a legit team and laughed hard when he got that insane contract. Kent Hugues literally killed Holland's reputation with that deal.

Cool…

I’m not even an analytics guy. I recognize that you can pretty much cherry pick a stat to make almost any point.

and yet you have nothing other than “phenomenology and trust my reading of the game over yours”

Respectfully, I decline.

 

[Goldenhands]

Cool…

I’m not even an analytics guy. I recognize that you can pretty much cherry pick a stat to make almost any point.

and yet you have nothing other than “phenomenology and trust my reading of the game over yours”

Respectfully, I decline.

Im the one that started to call Shane Wrong on HF and called him a fraud at 1st OV on most scouting services lists. Ive had Jiricek, Slafkovsky and Kemell over him for months, so I think Im competent enough in term of players evaluation.

 

[bucks_oil]

I hear and understand that rationale, but I think it's a matter of kicking the can down the road.
Particularly when other moves haven't been 'all-in'.

Like I get that if 97/29 leave then the window is closed.

But eating the cost of an aging Hyman, Nuge, and Nurse might turn you into today's Sharks for a few years and that's a tough pill to swallow.

What I really don't understand is the fact that the Oilers haven't traded a 1st rounder in the McDavid era, and they bet on Smith and Koskinen. Why go budget and stress patience, and then out of the other side of your mouth sign these deals that are potentially poisoning the well for years 4-8 of the next 8 years? Seems incoherent.

there is an incongruence between what Holland says and what he does. He said he was standing down at the deadline in 2020 and then spent two 2nds on AA.

we may see some moves yet and our “precarious” playoff position actually, oddly, gives him some leverage. He could say “ patience, trusting my process, next year” and now GMs might actually believe him.

Also… those first rounders (Holloway, Bourgault, Broberg) are highly sought after assets in trade… but also worthwhile to keep to fit in the mcDrai window… but yeah, he’s got to make good current use of his first this year and next… hopefully for a goalie rather than a rental.

 

[Mr Positive]

Nurse is a #1 D

When we see it from him, it's because the rest of the team is in order. Most of last season he had ascended, but Larsson leaving threw the balance of the team off. This season the team has bounced between adjusting to new players, new coach, awful covid issues (leading to an awful schedule) and now just recovering from awful injury and now suffering from an awful flu, all while management was intent on playing Smith for many games despite him falling apart.

I know the response from this will be that it's all excuses, but these factors affect all teams in just this way. Whoever is the #1 D or top forwards suffer the most because coaching leans on them harder and their minutes climb

 

[bucks_oil]

Im the one that started to call Shane Wrong on HF and called him a fraud at 1st OV on most scouting services lists. Ive had Jiricek, Slafkovsky and Kemell over him for months, so I think Im competent enough in term of players evaluation.

what on earth does this prove? Your preference for one prospect over another proves nothing:
1) none of those guys have been yet drafted, so there is no external validation of your view and
2) until they actually play in the NHL and out perform Wright your guess is as good as anyone’s

and back on topic… there isn’t anything that says Nurse is a #3 defenseman, all data puts him as a #1, #2 at worst…. So your eyes are not special or unique… the onus is on you to back up your assertion. Which opposes a HoF NHL GM, Hockey Canada selection committee, counting stats, advanced stats, accredited Norris trophy voters and… well… just about everything else.

and you can’t articulate your case, except to say you think you might know more about the upcoming, as yet unproven, draft.

talk about hubris

 

[Goldenhands]

what on earth does this prove? Your preference for one prospect over another proves nothing:
1) none of those guys have been yet drafted, so there is no external validation of your view and
2) until they actually play in the NHL and out perform Wright your guess is as good as anyone’s

and back on topic… there isn’t anything that says Nurse is a #3 defenseman, all data puts him as a #1, #2 at worst…. So your eyes are not special or unique… the onus is on you to back up your assertion. Which opposes a HoF NHL GM, Hockey Canada selection committee, counting stats, advanced stats, accredited Norris trophy voters and… well… just about everything else.

and you can’t articulate your case, except to say you think you might know more about the upcoming, as yet unproven, draft.

talk about hubris

Could dress you a list of kids I had much higher than most scouting services. I had Lundell and Jack Quinn top 5, I had Seider 4th OV while no one had him in their top 15. I had K'andré Miller top 20 and easily the best defenseman on the NTDP while pople mocked me calling him K'ant play Miller. Bode Wilde, projected top 20 on most lists was on my no draft because of his low IQ. I was higher on Jacob Pelletier than most. I had Lavoie and Kaliyev on my no draft. The list goes on...

 

[therealkoho]

At 27 years old the term of 8 yrs is the right term the money for a a top 20 Dman in the league is also the right money or soon should be IMCO

He's big, strong, he skates really well he's got good offensive instincts, and he takes care of the crease with real sense of purpose and unless his game suddenly falls apart the contract is good and the money is well spent.

 

[Three On Zero]

Good 3rd dman lmao. Your either extremely bias or don’t know hockey. Probably both based on how bad this post is and the vitriol you have.

He's a middling #2/high end #3

 

[bucks_oil]

Could dress you a list of kids I had much higher than most scouting services. I had Lundell and Jack Quinn top 5, I had Seider 4th OV while no one had him in their top 15. I had K'andré Miller top 20 and easily the best defenseman on the NTDP while pople mocked me calling him K'ant play Miller. Bode Wilde, projected top 20 on most lists was on my no draft because of his low IQ. I was higher on Jacob Pelletier than most. I had Lavoie and Kaliyev on my no draft. The list goes on...

Well, if you say so... I'm proud of you.

Lundell - looks good, but you can't declare victory yet on the 2020 draft for cripes sake, it's about terminal value, not who makes the jump first
Jack Quinn - was 8th overall anyway... so you had him 3 slots higher? And what has he accomplished to validate your view? Again, way to early to declare victory.
Seider - if nobody had Seider in their top-15, how on earth did he go 6th? Did Detroit just pick a number out of a hat or something?
Miller - went 22nd and was the first D drafted from the NTDP that year... I thought you were trying to show us times when your knowledge was better than others? I had McDavid ranked 1st btw... see how this works?
Wilde - I'm gonna give you this one. Good for you. But he went 41st, so I don't know what your reference point is for "projected top 20 on most lists". It's factually wrong
Pelletier - And? He went with a late first and he's trending alright outside the NHL. Again, this is hardly validation.
Lavoie - Has turned a corner in his first full pro season. May still prove you wrong.
Kaliyev - I think any GM would be pretty happy to have a 20 year old 2nd round pick scoring 20 points in the first 57 games of his rookie year. Looks like you got this one wrong.

So far the only thing the above list proves is your inflated sense of self-worth, in my humble opinion.

In contrast, I'm not just trusting my eyes on Nurse (my eyes say he's exceptionally talented, very safe offensively, not very creative, fierce and controlled in the corners, but like most 26 year old D, also prone to the odd misread defensively while generally carrying a far inferior/less experienced partner for most of his career... Bear, Bouchard, Barrie, Benning, Russell, etc)... but that's my subjective assessment.

Unlike you, my subjective assessment can be backed up by stats showing that he's a consistent out-scorer at evens, an exceptional penalty killer, one of the games best EV scorers, strong at controlled exits and his simple counting numbers justify a salary in today's NHL of $7-8M easily. Oilers maybe overpaid by a million given their lack of leverage, mismanaging his bridge deal, and the general chaos that was happening with young D last year.

 

[Church Hill]

I suspect Oilers' fans assessment of Nurse as a #1 dman, which is obviously wrong, is due to them not having anything close to a serviceable defenseman in so long I can't even remember. Pronger?

If you're comparing Nurse to the other schlubs on the roster, he's the #1, but he's not a guy I would want playing 24 mins a night against the other team's best. Not even close.

 

[Goldenhands]

Well, if you say so... I'm proud of you.

Lundell - looks good, but you can't declare victory yet on the 2020 draft for cripes sake, it's about terminal value, not who makes the jump first
Jack Quinn - was 8th overall anyway... so you had him 3 slots higher? And what has he accomplished to validate your view? Again, way to early to declare victory.
Seider - if nobody had Seider in their top-15, how on earth did he go 6th? Did Detroit just pick a number out of a hat or something?
Miller - went 22nd and was the first D drafted from the NTDP that year... I thought you were trying to show us times when your knowledge was better than others? I had McDavid ranked 1st btw... see how this works?
Wilde - I'm gonna give you this one. Good for you. But he went 41st, so I don't know what your reference point is for "projected top 20 on most lists". It's factually wrong
Pelletier - And? He went with a late first and he's trending alright outside the NHL. Again, this is hardly validation.
Lavoie - Has turned a corner in his first full pro season. May still prove you wrong.
Kaliyev - I think any GM would be pretty happy to have a 20 year old 2nd round pick scoring 20 points in the first 57 games of his rookie year. Looks like you got this one wrong.

So far the only thing the above list proves is your inflated sense of self-worth, in my humble opinion.

In contrast, I'm not just trusting my eyes on Nurse (my eyes say he's exceptionally talented, very safe offensively, not very creative, fierce and controlled in the corners, but like most 26 year old D, also prone to the odd misread defensively while generally carrying a far inferior/less experienced partner for most of his career... Bear, Bouchard, Barrie, Benning, Russell, etc)... but that's my subjective assessment.

Unlike you, my subjective assessment can be backed up by stats showing that he's a consistent out-scorer at evens, an exceptional penalty killer, one of the games best EV scorers, strong at controlled exits and his simple counting numbers justify a salary in today's NHL of $7-8M easily. Oilers maybe overpaid by a million given their lack of leverage, mismanaging his bridge deal, and the general chaos that was happening with young D last year.

This is not about where those kids ended up being drafted, if anything, it just proves me right, thats about where they were projected by scouting services.

Lundell is in the same mold of a Patrice Bergeron, incredibly smart and strong all over the ice. Jack Quinn is killing it at the AHL level, his PPG rate is among the top in the AHL, only a matter of time before he gets called up and rack up pts at the NHL level. I had him over Rossi.

Kaliyev is slow footed and weak on 200 ft. He has good offensive tools, good size/reach but will cost you alot defensively. Low IQ player that will end up being nothing more than wet firecracker.

Lavoie is garbage, even slower than Kaliyev and so overall porous, he is a no prospect.

Back to the topic now. This is not a prospects thread, thats about your 3-4 millions overpaid defenseman.

 

[DamonDRW]

Seider for Nurse? Will Edmonton accept it?

 

[Llamamoto]

I suspect Oilers' fans assessment of Nurse as a #1 dman, which is obviously wrong, is due to them not having anything close to a serviceable defenseman in so long I can't even remember. Pronger?

If you're comparing Nurse to the other schlubs on the roster, he's the #1, but he's not a guy I would want playing 24 mins a night against the other team's best. Not even close.

Then why does he have positive possession, shot, chance, and goal metrics whilst playing 26+ minutes a night against top competition?

 

[Cup or Bust]

Then why does he have positive possession, shot, chance, and goal metrics whilst playing 26+ minutes a night against top competition?

Nurse does a great job. Wait until he isn't stuck with third pairing offensive d-men as his partner most games. The Oilers will have a solid top pairing.

 

[Church Hill]

Then why does he have positive possession, shot, chance, and goal metrics whilst playing 26+ minutes a night against top competition?

All I know is those stats have nothing to do with him playing the majority of every game with the greatest offensive tool in the NHL. That's all Darnell.