Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] D Evan Bouchard re-signs with the Oilers (2 years, $3.9M AAV)
- Thread starter Leonardo87
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I don't like bridge deals but this is probably for the best. Id be weary of giving him a long term contract in case he just max out as a Barrie. If he doesn't improve his D, they can sell high next year for a better D. If he does improve, then I guess that's a good problem to have.
I had no doubt once Barrie left the Oilers that Bouchard was going to explode offensively. It would have been nice to sign him longer term but it will be a nice problem to have if he starts scoring 60+ points a season which he has the potential to do. Most top teams have cap issues it is part of the deal and you have to continue to adjust every season. A lot can change in 2 seasons.
Is it?
Bouchard has 61 even strength points in his first two seasons, so call it 30 even strength points next season.
Barrie had 28 powerplay points for the Oilers in 61 games, Bouchard had 13, but was only on PP1 for about a quarter of the season.
Considering how good the Oilers powerplay is, 70 isn't a stretch at all. He'll comfortably be among the league leaders in powerplay points by defencemen.
There's reason to believe it. He probably eclipses Ceci as top RD this year. His production after we got Ekholm was 36 points in 33 games (that includes 17 points in 12 playoff games). He will be even better this season. 70 points for Bouchard this season is actually conservative
yes. 100%. Extremely optimistic to think he’s going to have this kind of jump in production.
Its a good contract, he’s a good player but there is a lot of optimistic projections and comparisons in this thread.
Not when you understand the underlying numbers.
30 points at evens, 30 points on the powerplay is a pretty easy assumption. 70 is a little more out there, but I'd give him better than 50/50 odds. Playing fulltime on the best powerplay the league has ever seen will do a lot for him - and it connected at a much better rate with Bouchard running it than it did with Barrie.
70 points is conservative
Probably eclipses Ceci as #1RD
I didn't realize Ceci is so great, he may be better than a defenseman who easily hits 70 points.
Top RD would be the the most trusted 5 on 5 in the toughest assignments. It's not all about points. Bouchard lacks the experience this being only his 2nd full season. He was just starting to get away from a sheltered role. The Oilers are definitely stronger on the left said because yes, Ceci was the #1 on the right
Edit: also perhaps Ceci is better than you remember. He's definitely better than he was on his previous teams
Did you not see the Oilers PP work last season?
Just wait until Bouchard gets a full season on it
Bouchard will hit 70 easily next season. I’m not even an Oilers fan. He was the highest scoring dman in last year’s playoffs even with them being bounced in the second round.
70 is very optimistic, but the numbers he's put up support it.
Lowetide did a piece in the Athletic that projected Bouchard at 57 points... not that far off:
Lowetide: Projecting Evan Bouchard's points for 2023-24
Now that Bouchard is a power play staple for the Oilers, how how can he fly next season?
theathletic.com
Having said that, he could put up 55 points and still not be worth a $7M contract and I know there are plenty of pro-Bouchard Oiler fans who feel the same way. This kid has all of the poise and skill to kill it on our power play (his first opportunity to do so is this year)... but he's still got warts defensively that need work. Thankfully we have a great mentor in Ekholm.
So projecting Bouchard to hit 70 points isn't quite as homeristic as it seems. His offensive chops aren't really in question and he's inheriting the greatest power play in history (on which his performance actually moved the needle even further in the positive direction).
Mmmmhmmm70 is very optimistic, but the numbers he's put up support it.
Lowetide did a piece in the Athletic that projected Bouchard at 57 points... not that far off:
Lowetide: Projecting Evan Bouchard's points for 2023-24
Now that Bouchard is a power play staple for the Oilers, how how can he fly next season?
Having said that, he could put up 55 points and still not be worth a $7M contract and I know there are plenty of pro-Bouchard Oiler fans who feel the same way. This kid has all of the poise and skill to kill it on our power play (his first opportunity to do so is this year)... but he's still got warts defensively that need work. Thankfully we have a great mentor in Ekholm.
So projecting Bouchard to hit 70 points isn't quite as homeristic as it seems. His offensive chops aren't really in question and he's inheriting the greatest power play in history (on which his performance actually moved the needle even further in the positive direction).
Good luck.
Good luck with what? This isn't a prediction. I agreed it's very optimistic. I just think you are quick to dismiss it as being outside the realm of the possible.
Across the final 21 games + playoffs (corresponding with Barrie's departure, inheriting the PP1 and a steady mentor in Ekholm), he scored at a rate higher than that.
28 points in 23 games.
As you say 70 points is a huge jump in production if your baseline is a 40 point ~sophomore season.
It is not a huge jump, in fact it's a decline, if your baseline is his production since his deployment dramatically changed more than 1/3 of a season ago.
(Unlike you) I don't pretend to know which Bouchard is the new baseline. It's going to be interesting to play out.
I don't see 70 points as a homer opinion.70 is very optimistic, but the numbers he's put up support it.
Lowetide did a piece in the Athletic that projected Bouchard at 57 points... not that far off:
Lowetide: Projecting Evan Bouchard's points for 2023-24
Now that Bouchard is a power play staple for the Oilers, how how can he fly next season?
Having said that, he could put up 55 points and still not be worth a $7M contract and I know there are plenty of pro-Bouchard Oiler fans who feel the same way. This kid has all of the poise and skill to kill it on our power play (his first opportunity to do so is this year)... but he's still got warts defensively that need work. Thankfully we have a great mentor in Ekholm.
So projecting Bouchard to hit 70 points isn't quite as homeristic as it seems. His offensive chops aren't really in question and he's inheriting the greatest power play in history (on which his performance actually moved the needle even further in the positive direction).
Bouchard scored 36 points in 33 games with Ekholm last season and the playoffs. The team is starting the year much like how it ended
So, for an 82 games that's a pace of 89.4 points, 22.4 goals.
There are no rivals on the Oilers that would take Bouchard's role. I know a 70 point pace is eye rolling because it is extreme, but he's in an extreme position.
The Oilers have had the best PP in history for a couple of seasons now. We just had the 30 year old RNH destroy his total highs with over 100 points.
It would be a homer opinion to say Bouchard will get 100 points because he is young and developing still. 70 is conservative
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