Toronto has nearly 2x the high danger scoring chances as Florida so far in this series. Florida leading is a combination of Bobrovsky playing the best hockey of his life, and Samsonov playing some of the worst. That muffin by Barkov should not have went in and everyone knows that. I could have stopped that, as could have most of the posters on this site.
Leafs are heavily favoured to win Game 3 and I think when it rains it pours. If Toronto comes out and dominates and scores, then we might have regular Bobrovsky trying to stop an onslaught. He played the best 2 game stretch of his career, can he keep it up? I doubt it. Scoring early will be important because Bobrovsky is a huge momentum goaltender - when he's bad, he's awful. If he's confident, he can be one of the best goalies in the game.
The major difference is going to be Samsonov though. Florida can't score every time they touch the puck. He can't allow bad goals and has to at least stop some decent chances. The most important thing is - stop the routine saves. If you allow a weak goal, the team plays tight around you. Even if you make 5 great saves after - the team can't trust allowing shots on you. It's much better to just stop the routine shots and then allow the high danger chances - that way the team can at least trust you and not worry about collapsing on every shot.
If Samsonov bounces back - Leafs can win in 6. If he's going to allow a goal every decent shot (and some not-so-decent shots), the series is over.
