Pre-Game Talk: ECF Series Talk: Rat Bastards versus Boring Jerks

[WreckingCrew]

Unless he's doing it on purpose, then his deception must be high. A high Intimidation score and a high Deception score implies a high Charisma stat (which checks out). Which probably leaves Rod as either a Bard, a Paladin or a Warlock.

Obviously though RBAs intimidation / persuasion are incredibly low, otherwise we wouldn't constantly get shafted by shit penalty calls, blatant missed calls, and every f***ing GI challenge

 

[MinJaBen]

There’s the immovable rod. Probably not very useful as a goalie stick, as it locks into place at a click of a button and cannot be moved from its position no matter what. So you could theoretically lock it into place across the net and block off a portion of the net, but then Freddie would probably knock himself out trying to go from side to side around it.

I thought that was the coach?

 

[Blueline Bomber]

I thought that was the coach?

I was waiting for that joke. It literally hit me as I was writing it.

 

[Summer Rose]

Unearthed Arcana

UA had some really weird stuff in it, in all of the editions I played where I got my hands on a copy of it. Whoever came up with all the strange variant rules must have been having the time of their life, since that entire book is basically just a published version of throwing ideas at the wall to see what would stick, and maybe including it anyway even if it didn't stick. They were also getting paid to concoct all of it.

 

[BrindAmours Army]

Rod can only roll a one when arguing with the refs, so no charm spell going to work for us.

He's got permanent disadvantage and a -5 modifier

 

[chaz4hockey]

Now, reaching 7 decades of age and don't know how many more of these series I will be able to attend....so, I'm going to Amerant for games 3 & 4.

Go Canes.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

Also, lobbing random shit at bob with no net front isnt going to work here, nor are the odd / band angle stuff we scored on Thompson. Not happening.

You'll have to beat bob on a snipe or traffic.

Yes and no. We scored one truly bad goal on Thompson: the Svech game winner in game 5. This was truly perplexing; the only rationalization I have is that Thompson wasn't paying attention.

The other goals we scored on bad angles were mostly glove side high snipes that were well placed. Thompson plays super deep in net to help move laterally on chances that move east-west at high pace. We tried some of that against Washington, and Thompson made some great saves. However, the cost to playing so deep is you leave more room for shooters to snipe, and clearly we were scouting that. It was a calculated ploy by the Canes, I'm sure fueled by our video scouting of Logan Thompson.

That said, we also have had a disproportionate amount of deflections and screened shots from our defensemen that haven't gone in. You look at any playoff game and a large portion of playoff goals are scored this way. I'm not so concerned about regression to the mean for our shooters here. It works against us some ways but works for us in equal part.



The advantage we may have is desire. I can see the Hurricanes playing hungrier for this series. The Panthers as everyone has said are in their 3rd straight ECF, and are our boogeyman last time we were here. We're more rested than they are. I'm also not as worried at their defense as I was last year since they lost Brandon Montour, who was an absolute monster in 2022-2023. They're still good, but they have

Forsling - Ekblad
Mikkola - Jones
Schnmidt - Kulikov

Our D may be weaker as well, but I like how our D stacks against theirs this year.

Slavin - Burns
Orlov - Chatfield
Gostisbehere - Walker

If Burns stays this excellent defensively, I'd argue that all of our D pairings are better or at least equal to Florida's. Gost's 5 on 5 play has been questionable but we'll need his good puck movement to beat the Panthers' forecheck.

 

[Tryamw]

So Chatfield somewhere between 100% healthy and in need of surgery 8 months or even ded. This is what I gleaned from comments he may not play game 1.

 

[Borsig]

Is chat out for game 1?

 

[WhiteTiger]

I think most of the hockey world is viewing this Florida team through the lens of 2023 and 2024, when they’re simply as not as scary as those squads to me. Montour was a big loss, Ekblad has significantly declined, notorious Canes killer Tkachuk is a shell of himself due to injury, and even Verhaege has been far less dangerous.

The Marchand line, Bob, and the Panthers general desire to goon it up will present challenges, and I have a lot of respect for Barkov, but this series is a tossup at worst IMO. Florida has played a ton of hockey the last 3 years, and will be coming into this series on zero rest. The tank may be running close to empty.

The Canes also have much better top end (Svech) and depth scoring than they did in 2023. I’d be surprised if they averaged 1.5 goals a game this time around.

 

[Discipline Daddy]

I read this quote from an article on daily faceoff: (link: Bruins sign Simon Zajicek to one-year, entry-level contract)

What’s really made the Panthers’ offense overwhelming for opponents has been the success of their third line of Luostarinen, Lundell and Marchand. While Florida’s top guns have been holding their own against the other teams’ best stars, this trio has feasted on the Lightning and Leafs’ bottom six opponents and played a massive factor when the Panthers have won. As a result, all three find themselves in the top five in scoring on the team, with Marchand and Luostarinen co-leading the team in scoring.

The Lightning were a fairly top heavy team going into the playoffs, but they were injured as all by the end of series 1. Here's their lineup from game 5:

Guentzel - Point - Kucherov
Paul - Cirelli - Goncalves
Geekie - Gourde - Chaffee
Girgensons - Glendening

And they went 7D. And several of those forwards were playing significantly injured: Nikita Kucherov, Nick Paul, Tony Cirelli, Yanni Gourde, and Luke Glendening. That by my count is 6 remaining non-injured forwards.

Toronto was much healthier. Here's their starting 12:

Knies - Matthews - Marner
Holmberg - Tavares - Nylander
Lorentz - Laughton - Jarnkrok
McMann - Domi - Pacioretty

This is a really top-heavy team. You have the obvious scorers in Knies/Marner/Matthews/Tavares/Nylander. Those guys were all basically shut down. The remaining depth players just aren't playoff-caliber.

I credit the Panthers for playing super well, but I also think they haven't played a team as deep as ours. For us to have a chance, our depth needs to prove superior and give us timely scoring. So far, we've seen that, but they still have more to prove.

 

[robbieberns]

my DnD knowledge is limited to my extensive time with Baldurs Gate 3, but Jarvis is about as Bard as you can get

 

[wgknestrick]

If they just win a single game, I will be happy. So tired of the Canes playing well until they don't in the playoffs like someone just turns off their willingness to take shots. The 1PP unit is already showing glimpses of that flawed play.

 

[Nikishin al Gaib]

Yes and no. We scored one truly bad goal on Thompson: the Svech game winner in game 5. This was truly perplexing; the only rationalization I have is that Thompson wasn't paying attention.

Thompson had to respect Svech passing to Walker on the zone entry. That little give and go not only got Washington's defenders spinning like a blender (there were 4 defenders in the zone when Svech shot, the closest 2 were turned around by the give and go), but also opened up Thompson just enough to sneak a puck through before he could fully set. It was a small little play, but just enough to create a scoring chance that Svech buried.

 

[wgknestrick]

Will Rod bench Ghost this series? IMO, that is the key that could push us over the edge.

-5 in 10 games is not something you ignore, especially when the 2nd worst is just a -1. This series is just too close to have a core defender averaging -0.5 GA/game.

 

[CanesUltimate11]

Will Rod bench Ghost this series? IMO, that is the key that could push us over the edge.

-5 in 10 games is not something you ignore, especially when the 2nd worst is just a -1. This series is just too close to have a core defender averaging -0.5 GA/game.

With Chatfield possibly injured no chance he benches Ghost for 2 rookies.

With Chatfield healthy, no chance he benches Ghost for 1 rookie.

 

[Lempo]

Looks about right for him. However, your nonstandard ordering of the stats is irksome. But don't mind me, I'm just silly and pedantic like that. The standard order is strength, dexterity, constitution, intelligence, wisdom, and charisma.

Yeah, some serious Goals - Points - Assist crap goin' on there.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Will Rod bench Ghost this series? IMO, that is the key that could push us over the edge.

-5 in 10 games is not something you ignore, especially when the 2nd worst is just a -1. This series is just too close to have a core defender averaging -0.5 GA/game.

It's a bit misleading, because Ghost mainly gets his points on the PP, where he wouldn't get a + for his contributions.

 

[Nikishin al Gaib]

With Chatfield possibly injured no chance he benches Ghost for 2 rookies.

With Chatfield healthy, no chance he benches Ghost for 1 rookie.

We have gotten to the ECF with this lineup, no sense in making any significant changes now.

Win or lose, we are ride or die with the team that brought us here. Barring injury (which Chatty still isn't, he needs to practice tomorrow in order to play) Nikishin won't see the ice again til next year.

 

[DaveG]

Yes and no. We scored one truly bad goal on Thompson: the Svech game winner in game 5. This was truly perplexing; the only rationalization I have is that Thompson wasn't paying attention.

The other goals we scored on bad angles were mostly glove side high snipes that were well placed. Thompson plays super deep in net to help move laterally on chances that move east-west at high pace. We tried some of that against Washington, and Thompson made some great saves. However, the cost to playing so deep is you leave more room for shooters to snipe, and clearly we were scouting that. It was a calculated ploy by the Canes, I'm sure fueled by our video scouting of Logan Thompson.

That said, we also have had a disproportionate amount of deflections and screened shots from our defensemen that haven't gone in. You look at any playoff game and a large portion of playoff goals are scored this way. I'm not so concerned about regression to the mean for our shooters here. It works against us some ways but works for us in equal part.



The advantage we may have is desire. I can see the Hurricanes playing hungrier for this series. The Panthers as everyone has said are in their 3rd straight ECF, and are our boogeyman last time we were here. We're more rested than they are. I'm also not as worried at their defense as I was last year since they lost Brandon Montour, who was an absolute monster in 2022-2023. They're still good, but they have

Forsling - Ekblad
Mikkola - Jones
Schnmidt - Kulikov

Our D may be weaker as well, but I like how our D stacks against theirs this year.

Slavin - Burns
Orlov - Chatfield
Gostisbehere - Walker

If Burns stays this excellent defensively, I'd argue that all of our D pairings are better or at least equal to Florida's. Gost's 5 on 5 play has been questionable but we'll need his good puck movement to beat the Panthers' forecheck.

I'd include Gudas there as well even if I don't think much of him as a dman. In terms of positioning and skating he was utterly meh but in terms of physical play and keeping our guys out of the crease he was solid during that series 2 years ago. Kulikov is a better skater and overall defenseman but he's a downgrade in terms of physicality.

 

[Nikishin al Gaib]

 

[dogbazinho]

My concerns are; ref favoritism, head hunting, and hot goalie. In no particular order.

 

[chaz4hockey]

2023 Series...we were not very deep offensively and not as heavy of a lineup.

 

[chaz4hockey]

2025...we are much deeper offensively but so are Cats..playoff to-date stats for both:

 

[Tryamw]

My concerns are; ref favoritism, head hunting, and hot goalie. In no particular order.

1 and 2 are related