Value of: Dylan Larkin

[nbwingsfan]

Is Larkin even better than Byfield right now?

You don't think Byfield can score 70 points playing 1st line role with 1st line PP time in Detroit?

He just scored 55 in LA despite having to cede all the best opportunities to Kopitar.

Yes

Spent a large part of the season next to Fiala.

Had almost identical ice time as Kopitar did

Had more OZ starts than Kopitar.

What you said is just plain false.

 

[SirloinUB]

Pretty debatable. I think if they switched roles you wouldn't see much of a difference. Byfield's scoring would go up and Larkin's would go down.

Plus Byfield is substantially cheaper, cost controlled for 5 years, and just entering his prime.

A Larkin for Byfield swap proposal would have the LA GM hanging up the phone.

Hard to take this seriously tbh but I'll play along.

Pretty debatable. I think if they switched roles you wouldn't see much of a difference. Byfield's scoring would go up and Larkin's would go down.

Lets start with this. You present a hypothetical that may or may not prove you right. Flimsy at best.

Also, We can both play that game. For example, the Kings, as a whole, are a better team. If Larkin had a better team around him you would see his production go up.

Plus Byfield is substantially cheaper, cost controlled for 5 years, and just entering his prime.

Within the context of your question, "Is Larkin even better than Byfield right now?" age and cost are irrelevant.

A Larkin for Byfield swap proposal would have the LA GM hanging up the phone.

Maybe. And fair enough. My post that you quoted said. "I'm not saying the Kings should make the trade but let's be real, It would be an immediate upgrade to the present Kings roster."


Over the last 2 seasons Larkin has put up 30 more points in 10 less games while taking all of the hard matchups that Byfield has been shielded from.

Maybe Byfield takes a big leap this summer, he certainly has the potential to, but you answer your question, "Is Larkin even better than Byfield right now?"

The answer is Yes.

Oh and this doesn't include the excellent nuance @nbwingsfan added which negates much of your assertation that Larkin is in much better circumstance to produce.

 

[Indy18]

I said I wasn’t real interested in the package CBJ would likely offer. They can probably get a better one. I would also be surprised if he would waive for Columbus.

I bet he would, better tax burden and he is Z's best man at his wedding. Those two are close and right now Werenski basically owns this team. People need stop saying LOL NOBODY WANTS TO PLAY IN COLUMBUS especially with the wind on this team's back right now.

 

[VancouverJagger]

What's the ask here? If I'm the Nucks I look long and hard at offering Willander, Lekkermaki and our first this year. Might even throw Raty in there if I had to.......

Does this come close to getting it done?

 

[stevo61]

I bet he would, better tax burden and he is Z's best man at his wedding. Those two are close and right now Werenski basically owns this team. People need stop saying LOL NOBODY WANTS TO PLAY IN COLUMBUS especially with the wind on this team's back right now.

Are we supposed to hijack every Larkin thread to say he's coming to play with his best bud? Seems fair

 

[dekelikekocur]

I bet he would, better tax burden and he is Z's best man at his wedding. Those two are close and right now Werenski basically owns this team. People need stop saying LOL NOBODY WANTS TO PLAY IN COLUMBUS especially with the wind on this team's back right now.

At best the tax situation is a wash. Ohio would tax him at 3%, Columbus an additional 2.5%.

Michigan is like 4.25% and Detroit is 1.2%.

 

[Bank Shot]

Yes

Spent a large part of the season next to Fiala.

Had almost identical ice time as Kopitar did

Had more OZ starts than Kopitar.

What you said is just plain false.

28% KEVIN FIALA - QUINTON BYFIELD - ALEX LAFERRIERE
12% WARREN FOEGELE - TANNER JEANNOT - QUINTON BYFIELD
10.6% WARREN FOEGELE - QUINTON BYFIELD - ALEX LAFERRIERE

21.6% DYLAN LARKIN - LUCAS RAYMOND - MARCO KASPER
15.2% DYLAN LARKIN - ALEX DEBRINCAT - LUCAS RAYMOND
13.8% PATRICK KANE - DYLAN LARKIN - ALEX DEBRINCAT

One player had Fiala. The other player had most of the best offensive players that Detroit had to offer on a regular basis.

Not sure what the OZ thing is about. Byfield had a higher percentage, but the difference is 4%. It's not like he was being deployed with heavy OZ% compared to others.

What I say isn't false at all. It's quite accurate.

The difference in their scoring levels was mostly because Larkin gets 1st PP time and premium time on things like empty nets.

Byfield actually outscored Larkin at 5v5. 38 points to 33.

Larkin was 8 to 3 on EN points. 27 to 7 on the PP. Larkin wouldn't get all that gravy in LA.

Hard to take this seriously tbh but I'll play along.



Lets start with this. You present a hypothetical that may or may not prove you right. Flimsy at best.

Also, We can both play that game. For example, the Kings, as a whole, are a better team. If Larkin had a better team around him you would see his production go up.

Except that isn't the case at all usually. Players on better teams generally will have worse production because the roles are already filled. That's why guys like Arvidsson and Skinner had drop offs going to the Oilers and McLeod and Holloway scored more elsewhere. It's why a guy like Miller couldn't get enough ice time to score in Tampa but exploded in Vancouver.

Being on the number one line on ANY team is a bigger advantage that playing a smaller role on a good team. Being first PP, 3v3, empty nets, etc all have big boosts on production.

Larkin had 27 PP points last year. You think he's getting the kind of PP time required to do that on a team that has a better center?

Within the context of your question, "Is Larkin even better than Byfield right now?" age and cost are irrelevant.



Maybe. And fair enough. My post that you quoted said. "I'm not saying the Kings should make the trade but let's be real, It would be an immediate upgrade to the present Kings roster."


Over the last 2 seasons Larkin has put up 30 more points in 10 less games while taking all of the hard matchups that Byfield has been shielded from.

Maybe Byfield takes a big leap this summer, he certainly has the potential to, but you answer your question, "Is Larkin even better than Byfield right now?"

The answer is Yes.

Oh and this doesn't include the excellent nuance @nbwingsfan added which negates much of your assertation that Larkin is in much better circumstance to produce.

Not sure it would be an upgrade. As I already pointed out, Byfield outscored Larkin at 5v5 38 to 33.
Kopitar is the 1st PP guy in LA. He had 22 points on the PP. Larkin had 27. Byfield had 7.

Maybe Larkin is an upgrade in LA if you think he's going to be better than Kopitar on the PP. Seems like anywhere else it would be a wash.

Playing against better competition is a fair point, but Larkin doesn't exactly kill it against the best. He's a negative player every season. He is no Phillip Danault.

 

[Baksfamous112]

28% KEVIN FIALA - QUINTON BYFIELD - ALEX LAFERRIERE
12% WARREN FOEGELE - TANNER JEANNOT - QUINTON BYFIELD
10.6% WARREN FOEGELE - QUINTON BYFIELD - ALEX LAFERRIERE

21.6% DYLAN LARKIN - LUCAS RAYMOND - MARCO KASPER
15.2% DYLAN LARKIN - ALEX DEBRINCAT - LUCAS RAYMOND
13.8% PATRICK KANE - DYLAN LARKIN - ALEX DEBRINCAT

One player had Fiala. The other player had most of the best offensive players that Detroit had to offer on a regular basis.

Not sure what the OZ thing is about. Byfield had a higher percentage, but the difference is 4%. It's not like he was being deployed with heavy OZ% compared to others.

What I say isn't false at all. It's quite accurate.

The difference in their scoring levels was mostly because Larkin gets 1st PP time and premium time on things like empty nets.

Byfield actually outscored Larkin at 5v5. 38 points to 33.

Larkin was 8 to 3 on EN points. 27 to 7 on the PP. Larkin wouldn't get all that gravy in LA.

Except that isn't the case at all usually. Players on better teams generally will have worse production because the roles are already filled. That's why guys like Arvidsson and Skinner had drop offs going to the Oilers and McLeod and Holloway scored more elsewhere. It's why a guy like Miller couldn't get enough ice time to score in Tampa but exploded in Tampa.

Larkin had 27 PP points last year. You think he's getting the kind of PP time required to do that on a team that has a better center?

Not sure it would be an upgrade. As I already point out, Byfield outscored Larkin at 5v5 38 to 33.
Kopitar is the 1st PP guy in LA. He had 22 points on the PP. Larkin had 27. Byfield had 7.

Maybe Larkin is an upgrade in LA if you think he's going to be better than Kopitar on the PP. Seems like anywhere else it would be a wash.

Playing against better competition is a fair point, but Larkin doesn't exactly kill it against the best. He's a negative player every season. He is no Phillip Danault.

All that doesn’t even take into account that Byfield is ~2 years away from entering his prime while Larkin is ~1-2 years away from exiting his.

This trade would end up being as lopsided as the McDonagh for Gomez, Drouin for Sergachev and Zibanejad for Brassard.

L.A would be fools to even entertain this deal.

 

[OG Eberle]

All that doesn’t even take into account that Byfield is ~2 years away from entering his prime while Larkin is ~1-2 years away from exiting his.

This trade would end up being as lopsided as the McDonagh for Gomez, Drouin for Sergachev and Zibanejad for Brassard.

L.A would be fools to even entertain this deal.

What is "his prime" and how do you measure that? Is that based on age? Years after draft? Both combined? Do linemates and quality of them play a role in a player entering their prime earlier/later than others? What about coaching and systems?

That list is just off the top of my head of things that would affect what a player does and how we perceive it.

I don't have a horse on either side, but you responded to numbers/stats with a generalized opinion without a definite definition.

Saying who is entering/exiting prime is a fancy way of saying "in my opinion".

 

[nbwingsfan]

28% KEVIN FIALA - QUINTON BYFIELD - ALEX LAFERRIERE
12% WARREN FOEGELE - TANNER JEANNOT - QUINTON BYFIELD
10.6% WARREN FOEGELE - QUINTON BYFIELD - ALEX LAFERRIERE

21.6% DYLAN LARKIN - LUCAS RAYMOND - MARCO KASPER
15.2% DYLAN LARKIN - ALEX DEBRINCAT - LUCAS RAYMOND
13.8% PATRICK KANE - DYLAN LARKIN - ALEX DEBRINCAT

One player had Fiala. The other player had most of the best offensive players that Detroit had to offer on a regular basis.

Not sure what the OZ thing is about. Byfield had a higher percentage, but the difference is 4%. It's not like he was being deployed with heavy OZ% compared to others.

What I say isn't false at all. It's quite accurate.

The difference in their scoring levels was mostly because Larkin gets 1st PP time and premium time on things like empty nets.

Byfield actually outscored Larkin at 5v5. 38 points to 33.

Larkin was 8 to 3 on EN points. 27 to 7 on the PP. Larkin wouldn't get all that gravy in LA.

Except that isn't the case at all usually. Players on better teams generally will have worse production because the roles are already filled. That's why guys like Arvidsson and Skinner had drop offs going to the Oilers and McLeod and Holloway scored more elsewhere. It's why a guy like Miller couldn't get enough ice time to score in Tampa but exploded in Vancouver.

Being on the number one line on ANY team is a bigger advantage that playing a smaller role on a good team. Being first PP, 3v3, empty nets, etc all have big boosts on production.

Larkin had 27 PP points last year. You think he's getting the kind of PP time required to do that on a team that has a better center?

Not sure it would be an upgrade. As I already pointed out, Byfield outscored Larkin at 5v5 38 to 33.
Kopitar is the 1st PP guy in LA. He had 22 points on the PP. Larkin had 27. Byfield had 7.

Maybe Larkin is an upgrade in LA if you think he's going to be better than Kopitar on the PP. Seems like anywhere else it would be a wash.

Playing against better competition is a fair point, but Larkin doesn't exactly kill it against the best. He's a negative player every season. He is no Phillip Danault.

The difference was 54% for Byfield (2nd most of all forwards on his team) vs 45% for Larkin (3rd least of all forwards on the team)

Byfield was extremely sheltered in comparison to Larkin. It wasn’t close

Also why is Kopitar the only player that Larkin can replace on the PP (who he was better than to boot)? You do know multiple Cs can play on the same PP right?

 

[Bank Shot]

The difference was 54% for Byfield (2nd most of all forwards on his team) vs 45% for Larkin (3rd least of all forwards on the team)

Byfield was extremely sheltered in comparison to Larkin. It wasn’t close

Also why is Kopitar the only player that Lopitar can replace on the PP (who he was better than to boot)? You do know multiple Cs can play on the same PP right?

It was 52.79% vs 48.44% for Kopitar. Not much of a difference.

This isn't like when the Canucks were giving the Sedins like 70%+ and their bottom sixers were getting 24%.

That is pretty even distribution of Ozone starts.

LA has competition. They have Kopitar that was/is a better player than Larkin.

If Byfield went to Detroit he would automatically get the first PP ice time because they don't have anyone else.

That's is why Byfield's numbers would pretty much be guaranteed to improve, while Larkin would likely take a hit. I mean Kopitar is getting pretty old so Maybe Larkin could steal top offensive center spot from him. Larkin would still be inferior to Danault as a two way guy though so he wouldn't be guaranteed EVERY good opportunity like he is in Detroit.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Larkin has high value if you ask me. He has all the tools minus the fact he isn't the guy to get them up the mountain but most certainly can be a big factor and is a great leader.

He has a good contract and if he plays as a 2C on a contending team that team becomes one of the best in the NHL. Larkin is also the most underrated player in the entire NHL if you ask me.

I think a fair deal is 2 1sts, 2nd, prospect and a roster player. But I think it'd be dumb for Detroit to trade him. But if he is to be traded, I think Tampa would be the best fit.

 

[nbwingsfan]

It was 52.79% vs 48.44% for Kopitar. Not much of a difference.

This isn't like when the Canucks were giving the Sedins like 70%+ and their bottom sixers were getting 24%.

That is pretty even distribution of Ozone starts.

LA has competition. They have Kopitar that was/is a better player than Larkin.

If Byfield went to Detroit he would automatically get the first PP ice time because they don't have anyone else.

That's is why Byfield's numbers would pretty much be guaranteed to improve, while Larkin would likely take a hit. I mean Kopitar is getting pretty old so Maybe Larkin could steal top offensive center spot from him. Larkin would still be inferior to Danault as a two way guy though so he wouldn't be guaranteed EVERY good opportunity like he is in Detroit.

What are you even talking about now? How is playing matchup against the top players supposed to be a “good” opportunity for Larkin? How does that improve his numbers?

If Byfield is supposedly better than Larkin is like you stated, then why couldn’t HE replace Kopitar like you just said Larkin could?

You don’t think going from 54% OZ starts to 45% OZ starts would mean a big hit to Byfield?

It’s quite clear you’ve realized you don’t have much of a point and that Larkin is clearly the better player today.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

What's the ask here? If I'm the Nucks I look long and hard at offering Willander, Lekkermaki and our first this year. Might even throw Raty in there if I had to.......

Does this come close to getting it done?

He is very good friends with Quinn Hughes, I cannot imagine he green lights it unless he knows he is staying.

This is a good package.

I don’t think Larkin’s list of teams he is willing to go to will be very long.

There was a reason he was willing to challenge Yzerman publicly, he holds most of the cards here.

 

[Bank Shot]

What are you even talking about now? How is playing matchup against the top players supposed to be a “good” opportunity for Larkin? How does that improve his numbers?

Being the only option for things like PP, 3v3, going against an empty net are all good for points.

Do you have any stat that shows playing against the other team's top players hurts offense? It's going to hurt your defence but many top offensive players are not as good/committed to defense as less talented players.

Getting a lot of icetime with talented teammates is going to help anyone's production.

All of these things help Larkin's production.

If Byfield is supposedly better than Larkin is like you stated, then why couldn’t HE replace Kopitar like you just said Larkin could?

I don't know what you are talking about here. I never claimed Byfield was better than Larkin. My claim is that any difference is probably pretty negligible.

Byfield may replace Kopitar in those areas this season. I would suggest the reason he hasn't yet is related to his youth and the fact that Kopitar is a hall of famer.

You don’t think going from 54% OZ starts to 45% OZ starts would mean a big hit to Byfield?

No. Getting all the opportunities that come with being a first line center would far outweigh that one aspect.

It’s quite clear you’ve realized you don’t have much of a point and that Larkin is clearly the better player today.

Its not clear at all besides maybe being a better PP player. Maybe Byfield will be good there too but he hasn't been given the chance yet to be the big dog there.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Being the only option for things like PP, 3v3, going against an empty net are all good for points.

Do you have any stat that shows playing against the other team's top players hurts offense? It's going to hurt your defence but many top offensive players are not as good/committed to defense as less talented players.

Getting a lot of icetime with talented teammates is going to help anyone's production.

All of these things help Larkin's production.


I don't know what you are talking about here. I never claimed Byfield was better than Larkin. My claim is that any difference is probably pretty negligible.

Byfield may replace Kopitar in those areas this season. I would suggest the reason he hasn't yet is related to his youth and the fact that Kopitar is a hall of famer.


No. Getting all the opportunities that come with being a first line center would far outweigh that one aspect.


Its not clear at all besides maybe being a better PP player. Maybe Byfield will be good there too but he hasn't been given the chance yet to be the big dog there.

What are all the opportunities?

Larkin starts less in the OZ

Byfield and Kopitar had almost identical EV TOI. The difference was all of about 50s/ game average on the PP. one was given more diffensibe assignments, while the other was sheltered in a more offensive role.

Larkin isn’t the “only option” for 3v3 or PP… once again, you do realize that in these scenarios positions don’t actually matter, right? That some teams don’t have a single D playing? That C don’t actually play C?

Nobody except you thinks Byfield and Larkin have a negligible difference today.

 

[KillerMillerTime]

To win now. LA gets a cost controlled, more experienced NHL 2nd line center who extends their window, rather than tear it all down.

I'm not too familiar with LA's prospect pool or depth chart. The Red Wings have a surplus of LD prospects (Buium, Wallinder), a few roster players could be expendable (namely Rasmussen and Berggren, who coincidentally are both Holland guys).

Although it seems like it could be a hockey trade, one for one.

Lol, no chance in hell LA is trading Byfield even up for Larkin.

 

[SirloinUB]

28% KEVIN FIALA - QUINTON BYFIELD - ALEX LAFERRIERE
12% WARREN FOEGELE - TANNER JEANNOT - QUINTON BYFIELD
10.6% WARREN FOEGELE - QUINTON BYFIELD - ALEX LAFERRIERE

21.6% DYLAN LARKIN - LUCAS RAYMOND - MARCO KASPER
15.2% DYLAN LARKIN - ALEX DEBRINCAT - LUCAS RAYMOND
13.8% PATRICK KANE - DYLAN LARKIN - ALEX DEBRINCAT

One player had Fiala. The other player had most of the best offensive players that Detroit had to offer on a regular basis.

Not sure what the OZ thing is about. Byfield had a higher percentage, but the difference is 4%. It's not like he was being deployed with heavy OZ% compared to others.

What I say isn't false at all. It's quite accurate.

The difference in their scoring levels was mostly because Larkin gets 1st PP time and premium time on things like empty nets.

Byfield actually outscored Larkin at 5v5. 38 points to 33.

Larkin was 8 to 3 on EN points. 27 to 7 on the PP. Larkin wouldn't get all that gravy in LA.

Except that isn't the case at all usually. Players on better teams generally will have worse production because the roles are already filled. That's why guys like Arvidsson and Skinner had drop offs going to the Oilers and McLeod and Holloway scored more elsewhere. It's why a guy like Miller couldn't get enough ice time to score in Tampa but exploded in Vancouver.

Being on the number one line on ANY team is a bigger advantage that playing a smaller role on a good team. Being first PP, 3v3, empty nets, etc all have big boosts on production.

Larkin had 27 PP points last year. You think he's getting the kind of PP time required to do that on a team that has a better center?

Not sure it would be an upgrade. As I already pointed out, Byfield outscored Larkin at 5v5 38 to 33.
Kopitar is the 1st PP guy in LA. He had 22 points on the PP. Larkin had 27. Byfield had 7.

Maybe Larkin is an upgrade in LA if you think he's going to be better than Kopitar on the PP. Seems like anywhere else it would be a wash.

Playing against better competition is a fair point, but Larkin doesn't exactly kill it against the best. He's a negative player every season. He is no Phillip Danault.

Imagine comparing Victor Ardvinson and Jeff skinner switching teams to Dylan Larkin (theoretically) switching teams in the year 2025.

And then you take it a step further by arguing the guy that produces less points in more games is better than the guy who produces more points in less games (while consistently playing against the opponents best players).

As I said, I can totally understand the kings preferring Byfield for contextual reasons but saying he is better now? Nah man, you’re out to lunch.

 

[VancouverJagger]

He is very good friends with Quinn Hughes, I cannot imagine he green lights it unless he knows he is staying.

This is a good package.

I don’t think Larkin’s list of teams he is willing to go to will be very long.

There was a reason he was willing to challenge Yzerman publicly, he holds most of the cards here.

Yah having a NTC will put a player like him to pick his destination. I wouldn't be surprised if Hughes doesn't know if he's staying as he wants to see how the team shakes out.

Sounds like there could be a shot then that he migggght consider Van.........I would have assumed the wings would want a center back but if you are dealing Larkin it's either for a player like Byfield of some youth like I offered (we don't have any high end C prospects to trade) 2 of our 3 top prospects and a first is def. a decent package for you considering both Lekk and Willander should be on the big club next year and should be top of the lineup players for the next decade.

I still doubt anything comes of this as it's normal smoke and probably being well blown out of proportion - the most likely outcome is he isn't going anywhere.

 

[Bank Shot]

Imagine comparing Victor Ardvinson and Jeff skinner switching teams to Dylan Larkin (theoretically) switching teams in the year 2025.

And then you take it a step further by arguing the guy that produces less points in more games is better than the guy who produces more points in less games (while consistently playing against the opponents best players).

As I said, I can totally understand the kings preferring Byfield for contextual reasons but saying he is better now? Nah man, you’re out to lunch.

Byfield produced more points at 5 v5.

Larkin only outproduced him in roles he wouldn't be playing on a contender.

Wanna look at reasons Detroit always missed the playoffs. Their first line center is a second line center..

 

[nbwingsfan]

Byfield produced more points at 5 v5.

Larkin only outproduced him in roles he wouldn't be playing on a contender.

Wanna look at reasons Detroit always missed the playoffs. Their first line center is a second line center..

Because he plays vastly more sheltered minutes than Larkin.

 

[Habitant#1]

Would be perfect in Montreal but the two teams make terrible trading partners.

 

[kinghock]

Because he plays vastly more sheltered minutes than Larkin.

Great, Detroit keep Larkin and LA keeps Byfield.

 

[Bank Shot]

Great, Detroit keep Larkin and LA keeps Byfield.

Whoa whoa whoa.

Detroit is doing you a favor trading for that inferior player. Just accept it.