Player Discussion Dylan Cozens

[bert]

It's based on the 23 games he has played in a Senators uniform thus far, which has been largely a continuation of how he's played in Buffalo.

Not sure why my ego would be involved. I liked the trade when it happened and still do. Getting out of Norris' contract alone was a massive win and getting Buffalo to add a 2nd to Cozens was a coup, but I'm under no illusion that Cozens is likely to be worth his contract going forward.

He's a frustrating player to watch. He reminds me quite a bit of Zibanejad when he was in a Senators uniform.

If Staios can take advantage of some team desperate for a 2C (Vancouver comes to mind) that is willing to trade something decent for Cozens, I'd be all for that, provided we can replace him with a more cost-effective option.

Why wouldn't Vancouver just trade for that player... i don't see any similarities to Zibanejad. Cozens has a way better work rate is much more physical. Isn't as skilled.

 

[aragorn]

I think if Norris was healthy the Sens would not have traded him because they need his faceoff ability, his PK ability & his goal scoring especially on the PP. I think they made the deal because ownership felt the pressure to make the playoffs this yr & with Norris injury history including recently that they didn't want to risk not making a deal & Norris being injured & unable to play in the playoffs. It's not like Cozens has been bad, he has played well enough, I don't think he is as good as Norris when Norris is healthy, but they needed a healthy top 4 centre.

 

[DueDiligence]

I don't believe those were the only 2 options: Keep him and pay him a huge contract or trade him for a short-term RD.

Just to be clear, too, I'm quite happy with how Jensen has played this year. However, it's a short term move as he'll be 35 when next season starts. It's just not good asset management in my books. We could have, and should have, done better with the Chychrun trade.

Chychrun was a tire fire last year. Unfortunately the Sens were not in a good position to keep him this season due to the logjam on the left side. They had to sell him at a low point in his value and move on.

 

[Micklebot]

I also don't think Norris would've lost so may face off draws in the D zone that resulted in goals. Man, he's going to be hard to replace. Missing his clutch too. Just so sad that we had a great player with a bum shoulder.

To be fair, Cozens isn't bad at faceoffs, and even Giroux who had the best record in the league has struggled. Tavares just seems to be dialed in.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

To be fair, Cozens isn't bad at faceoffs, and even Giroux who had the best record in the league has struggled. Tavares just seems to be dialed in.

Yeah, like Cozens and Jimothy of all players are our only centres with a faceoff win percentage above 50.

 

[Bileur]

Cozens would be so much more effective with another 10 lbs of muscle.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Yeah, like Cozens and Jimothy of all players are our only centres with a faceoff win percentage above 50.

Stutzle is the only forward with a FO% over 50%. Cozens is sitting at 42.9% currently.

We've made Pinto our top faceoff guy and he's gotten caved in through the first 4 games. Let's see if the coaching staff makes any adjustments on that front because we can't keep expecting to be in games while winning about 40ish% of faceoffs.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Stutzle is the only forward with a FO% over 50%. Cozens is sitting at 42.9% currently.

We've made Pinto our top faceoff guy and he's gotten caved in through the first 4 games. Let's see if the coaching staff makes any adjustments on that front because we can't keep expecting to be in games while winning about 40ish% of faceoffs.

Okay looks like that was before game 4, my bad.

 

[bert]

Cozens would be so much more effective with another 10 lbs of muscle.

He is 24 its not like that cant and wont happen. Big guys like him peak in their late 20's he isnt done developing.

 

[NyQuil]

We've made Pinto our top faceoff guy and he's gotten caved in through the first 4 games. Let's see if the coaching staff makes any adjustments on that front because we can't keep expecting to be in games while winning about 40ish% of faceoffs.

Giroux is the real culprit here.

61% in the regular season and he's a veteran. He's at 45.2%.

 

[Senator Stanley]

I'm not going to read too much into Cozens partial season with the Senators. I definitely know the player a lot better than I did before, and I'm getting a sense of what he does well and what his limitations are. But being thrust into a playoff run, on a new team, new system - I wouldn't expect him to do more than keep his head above water. And I think he's done that.

I'm always reluctant to draw comparison around here (no comparison is perfect, no two players are identical, etc.), but I think an interesting example of how a guy with Cozens' profile can develop over time and in new environments is Jeff Carter.

This is a really interesting article that tracks Carter's trajectory. Basically, Carter was a big, right shot player whose biggest strengths - his shot, his skating, and his reach - were very similar to Cozens'. Carter faced similar "is he a centre or a wing?" questions early in his career, including playing stretches on the wing, but found his footing as a 2C once he got to LA, where the team's structure (along with his own development, no doubt) complimented what he did well as a player.

HockeyBuzz.com - Jason Lewis - The Evolution of Jeff Carter as an LA Kings Center

www.hockeybuzz.com

His three biggest assets are his shot, his skating, and his reach. No one would claim that Carter is a master tactician of the game, nor is he a natural defensive stalwart. However, with the Kings system, two out of his three greatest qualities have made him one of the best centers in the Western Conference. The Kings centermen are like the Marines of defensive zone hockey; first in, last out. Carter's outstanding speed and easy, effortless stride, make him a monster in the transition game. In Philadelphia he was not asked to be the first out of the offensive zone and the last out of the defensive zone. It was fairly free wheeling. With his speed, Carter can transition probably better than any other King on the team. Due to that he has not seen a leveling off in his offensive numbers, but has seen great improvements in his suppression numbers. Simply put, he can burn up ice and put up scoring chances and then haul back to the defensive end in time to be in position to limit scoring chances.

 

[Dubi Doo]

"yeah he's worse at pretty much everything but he's currently healthy"...is a very bizarre assessment of why this trade was good for us. I could have lived with a Norris trade, understanding the trepidation around his shoulder and health, but it needed to be for a player that was tangibly closer to his impact level than what we got.

I think it's a short-sighted move in the same vein as the Chychrun deal. "We need an RD" - a perfectly understandable sentiment and a very desirable player for us before the season started. Why did we trade a guy with another 10 years in the league ahead of him for a guy who only has a few, at best? While also trading the better overall player. It's not a reflection of Jensen or his play. He's been a very good piece for us but the value we gave up to get him is not in line with who he is as a player.

Meh. Cozens trade value was very low. I mean- Buffalo had to take back an 8M player that has injury concerns. I do agree that Norris, from my limited viewing, looks the part of a top-6C while Cozens- from my viewing of the playoffs and in Buffalo- doesn't really look the part of a center. Still looks timid out there and is more of a body than a play driver/two-way player that you'd like out of your top-6C, but maybe he needs to shake off the cobwebs from playing in the wasteland of Buffalo + he's still pretty young.

I'm not going to read too much into Cozens partial season with the Senators. I definitely know the player a lot better than I did before, and I'm getting a sense of what he does well and what his limitations are. But being thrust into a playoff run, on a new team, new system - I wouldn't expect him to do more than keep his head above water. And I think he's done that.

I'm always reluctant to draw comparison around here (no comparison is perfect, no two players are identical, etc.), but I think an interesting example of how a guy with Cozens' profile can develop over time and in new environments is Jeff Carter.

This is a really interesting article that tracks Carter's trajectory. Basically, Carter was a big, right shot player whose biggest strengths - his shot, his skating, and his reach - were very similar to Cozens'. Carter faced similar "is he a centre or a wing?" questions early in his career, including playing stretches on the wing, but found his footing as a 2C once he got to LA, where the team's structure (along with his own development, no doubt) complimented what he did well as a player.

HockeyBuzz.com - Jason Lewis - The Evolution of Jeff Carter as an LA Kings Center

www.hockeybuzz.com

Jeff Carter was always my comparable as well, but I don't think Cozens is as lethal on the rush with his shot + the two-way game that developed over the years for Carter seems unlikely with Cozens. I worry about Cozens confidence issues as well. That being said, if he hits on his potential- that's exactly who I see him playing like, which would be a very, very good player for you guys.

Unfortunately, Norris is now dealing with an oblique injury, which comes with a pretty high rate of re-injuring (around 15%, I believe). So, with that, and his shoulder- I have very little confidence this trade works out well for the Sabres. 8 million for a player with his injury history is worrisome.

JBD looks like a bottom pairing defenseman at least! Yay! I love being a Sabres fan :p

 

[Micklebot]

Stutzle is the only forward with a FO% over 50%. Cozens is sitting at 42.9% currently.

We've made Pinto our top faceoff guy and he's gotten caved in through the first 4 games. Let's see if the coaching staff makes any adjustments on that front because we can't keep expecting to be in games while winning about 40ish% of faceoffs.

How exactly do you make adjustments when everyone is getting caved? What exactly can coaches do to win more draws?

Pinto isn't so much our main guy, it's more that his line doesn't have another "faceoff guy" on it. Cozens and Stutzle have both spent time with Giroux and Tkachuk who will take draws too, so the load gets spread out.

That said, the Pinto line is our primary matchup line, so they get the bulk of DZ faceoffs.

The reality is the only guy winning draws is Stutzle, and that's probably because we're keeping him away from Tavares. We certainly shouldn't be looking for Stu to take more draws.

 

[PlayOn]

Meh. Cozens trade value was very low. I mean- Buffalo had to take back an 8M player that has injury concerns. I do agree that Norris, from my limited viewing, looks the part of a top-6C while Cozens- from my viewing of the playoffs and in Buffalo- doesn't really look the part of a center. Still looks timid out there and is more of a body than a play driver/two-way player that you'd like out of your top-6C, but maybe he needs to shake off the cobwebs from playing in the wasteland of Buffalo + he's still pretty young.


Jeff Carter was always my comparable as well, but I don't think Cozens is as lethal on the rush with his shot + the two-way game that developed over the years for Carter seems unlikely with Cozens. I worry about Cozens confidence issues as well. That being said, if he hits on his potential- that's exactly who I see him playing like, which would be a very, very good player for you guys.

Unfortunately, Norris is now dealing with an oblique injury, which comes with a pretty high rate of re-injuring (around 15%, I believe). So, with that, and his shoulder- I have very little confidence this trade works out well for the Sabres. 8 million for a player with his injury history is worrisome.

JBD looks like a bottom pairing defenseman at least! Yay! I love being a Sabres fan :p

I’m not sure his value was low so much as the fact that because Buffalo didn’t want futures in return, the market was more limited. Montreal likely would have been happy to assemble a package for him, we know they were interested, but at the end of the day they didn’t have a better roster player to offer up.

Then you have to consider that other centres available (JT Miller, Ryan O’Reilly) had trade protection, or at least ROR was given some by Trotz even though it wasn’t written into his contract. So no futures, and then nobody with trade protection will limit you even further.

 

[BankStreetParade]

Giroux is the real culprit here.

61% in the regular season and he's a veteran. He's at 45.2%.

But he's just not. Pinto is taking almost twice as many draws as Giroux, 74 vs 42. How could Giroux be the culprit?

 

[NyQuil]

But he's just not. Pinto is taking almost twice as many draws as Giroux, 74 vs 42. How could Giroux be the culprit?

Of course Pinto is taking more draws, he's being matched up by Travis Green against Toronto's best centres on virtually every shift.

It's understandable that he's having trouble. Giroux has a much easier deployment and he's still failing.

Pinto has gone from a 51% in the regular season to 44.6% (-6.5%).

Giroux has gone from a 61.5% in the regular season to 45.2% (-16%).

Toronto is one of three teams in the league that had a better faceoff percentage than Ottawa in the regular season.

What adjustment do you want to see exactly?

 

[Micklebot]

What adjustment do you want to see exactly?

We should probably try harder to win faceoffs...

I think losing Norris has put a bit more of a burden on Pinto and to a lesser extent Greig, both are taking significantly more draws than they did in the reg season.

But to your point, Giroux was the best faceoff man in the reg season league wide, he needs to be at least 50%.

It's not just losing draws either, it's that we're losing them clean far too often.

 

[NyQuil]

We should probably try harder to win faceoffs...

I think losing Norris has put a bit more of a burden on Pinto and to a lesser extent Greig, both are taking significantly more draws than they did in the reg season.

But to your point, Giroux was the best faceoff man in the reg season league wide, he needs to be at least 50%.

It's not just losing draws either, it's that we're losing them clean far too often.

They were discussing on TEAM 1200 how often guys are getting thrown out of the faceoff circle in this playoff series.

You'd have to do some pretty impressive math to figure out if it is statistically significant, but anecdotally, it is being noticed.

Whether or not that is impacting us more than Toronto is an open question.

Logically, I could see it, where a moment's hesitation due to a slight lack of confidence from our younger centres is resulting in clean draws for the opposition.

 

[BankStreetParade]

How exactly do you make adjustments when everyone is getting caved? What exactly can coaches do to win more draws?

Pinto isn't so much our main guy, it's more that his line doesn't have another "faceoff guy" on it. Cozens and Stutzle have both spent time with Giroux and Tkachuk who will take draws too, so the load gets spread out.

That said, the Pinto line is our primary matchup line, so they get the bulk of DZ faceoffs.

The reality is the only guy winning draws is Stutzle, and that's probably because we're keeping him away from Tavares. We certainly shouldn't be looking for Stu to take more draws.

Player	Total FOs	Total FO%	SH FO Tot.	SH FO%	DZ FO Tot.	DZ FO%	OZ FO Tot.	OZ FO%
Giroux	42	45.2	12	25	22	45.5	17	52.9
Pinto	74	44.6	6	33.3	29	41.4	13	23.1
Stutzle	21	52.4	0	0	6	50	8	62.5
Tkachuk	22	31.8	0	0	2	0	18	33.3
Cozens	35	42.9	0	0	14	42.9	10	40

Start by having someone other than Giroux and Pinto take shorthanded FOs. Get Stutzle taking more DZ and OZ faceoffs. Reduce the amount of OZ FOs that Pinto and Tkachuk are taking.

 

[Micklebot]

Player	Total FOs	Total FO%	SH FO Tot.	SH FO%	DZ FO Tot.	DZ FO%	OZ FO Tot.	OZ FO%
Giroux	42	45.2	12	25	22	45.5	17	52.9
Pinto	74	44.6	6	33.3	29	41.4	13	23.1
Stutzle	21	52.4	0	0	6	50	8	62.5
Tkachuk	22	31.8	0	0	2	0	18	33.3
Cozens	35	42.9	0	0	14	42.9	10	40

You're going to have to do more than post a table if you want to have meaningful discussion. I have no idea what point you're trying to make here.


Edit: I see you've added some context.

Zone numbers aren't particularly meaningful, there is a bit of an advantage in having last stick down, but the missing context of who on the other side is far more important

Who exactly do you want to take shorthanded faceoffs instead, I guess we could have Greig take some, he's running at 35% overall right now, and then I guess you want Highmore to take Giroux's? Or do you want to start putting non-penalty killers on the PK?

 

[BankStreetParade]

You're going to have to do more than post a table if you want to have meaningful discussion. I have no idea what point you're trying to make here.

I hit reply too early by mistake. Christ, can you f***ing relax?

 

[mjd1001]

I'm not sure why anyone thinks Cozens should be good at faceoffs to begin with. He has historically been bad:

-His career with Buffalo: 46.6%
-This year regular season: 50.8%
-This year playoffs: 42.9%
-2023-24: 45.6%
-2022-23: 48.3%
-2021-22: 45.6%
-Rookie year: 47.5%

I really don't see anything to say he should be anything other than an average-to-slightly-below-average faceoff guy.

 

[PlayOn]

I'm not sure why anyone thinks Cozens should be good at faceoffs to begin with. He has historically been bad:

-His career with Buffalo: 46.6%
-This year regular season: 50.8%
-This year playoffs: 42.9%
-2023-24: 45.6%
-2022-23: 48.3%
-2021-22: 45.6%
-Rookie year: 47.5%

I really don't see anything to say he should be anything other than an average-to-slightly-below-average faceoff guy.

Norris was good at faceoffs anyway but has spoken about how much Giroux helped. Seems he learned to put more weight on his legs (which he did because of his shoulder) from him.

I think the lack of vets in Buffalo means that sometimes you don’t get these kinds of luxuries. That doesn’t mean he will ever be good at faceoffs but I also wouldn’t write him off. He did do pretty well after coming here so let’s see where he’s at next season.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm not sure why anyone thinks Cozens should be good at faceoffs to begin with. He has historically been bad:

-His career with Buffalo: 46.6%
-This year regular season: 50.8%
-This year playoffs: 42.9%
-2023-24: 45.6%
-2022-23: 48.3%
-2021-22: 45.6%
-Rookie year: 47.5%

I really don't see anything to say he should be anything other than an average-to-slightly-below-average faceoff guy.

We got talking faceoffs in general here, but I don't think anyone expects Cozens to more than average at the dot.

That said, Tavares was a career 50.1% over his first 5 seasons and is now among the elite,

At the same age as Cozens is now, Giroux was a career 49.5

Faceoffs aren't really a young man's game.