Player Discussion Dustin Wolf

[super6646]

It's hard to discern who is being ironic at this point, but you guys all realize that Markstrom would have been absolutely skewered if he allowed that fourth goal against Ottawa... right?

Like, he had a game where he made a bunch of good saves, but there were bad bounces, deflections and an undefended tic tac toe and then one very stoppable one. Ottawa had an expected goals just shy of 3.

Last year this board was adamant that quality of chances aside, our goalie should be expected to save some of those breakdowns. That saves made don't matter if you're letting four goals in. That if a save percentage just over .900 was a good game for you then it was a problem. We were very sure that having negative goals saved above average was iron-clad proof that the goaltending was an issue. And yet, here we are brimming with confirmation bias thinking Wolf had an outstanding game and deserves to be the #1 starter instead of the other two guys who were both also AHL beasts. (By the way, I also believe Wolf played well enough to be considered a solid NHL goalie option who belongs at this level).

End of the day, Wolf is our second-best goalie currently, is the youngest goalie to start in the NHL this season, and is being blocked from the backup crease by the Flames trying to be patient with asset management. The sky is not falling.

Again, I take it all back if you were being ironic and I bit hard.

One game sample size lol.

Vlad should’ve been moved in the summer. Flames are being too patient as usual. They did the same thing with Zary last year

 

[Zirakzigil]

It's hard to discern who is being ironic at this point, but you guys all realize that Markstrom would have been absolutely skewered if he allowed that fourth goal against Ottawa... right?

Like, he had a game where he made a bunch of good saves, but there were bad bounces, deflections and an undefended tic tac toe and then one very stoppable one. Ottawa had an expected goals just shy of 3.

Last year this board was adamant that quality of chances aside, our goalie should be expected to save some of those breakdowns. That saves made don't matter if you're letting four goals in. That if a save percentage just over .900 was a good game for you then it was a problem. We were very sure that having negative goals saved above average was iron-clad proof that the goaltending was an issue. And yet, here we are brimming with confirmation bias thinking Wolf had an outstanding game and deserves to be the #1 starter instead of the other two guys who were both also AHL beasts. (By the way, I also believe Wolf played well enough to be considered a solid NHL goalie option who belongs at this level).

End of the day, Wolf is our second-best goalie currently, is the youngest goalie to start in the NHL this season, and is being blocked from the backup crease by the Flames trying to be patient with asset management. The sky is not falling.

Again, I take it all back if you were being ironic and I bit hard.

This. Wolf needs to play, hes not doing that sitting on the bench watching Markstrom get start after start. He doesnt have to clear waivers and never forced his way onto the team. Hes going to get his 10-15 games in the NHL this season, otherwise he can play in the AHL.

 

[TheHudlinator]

For goalies, I think typically you want to ease prospects by giving them limited exposure a little bit at a time. Basically you put them in, let them see NHL speed and power for an hour or two and then give them a bird's eye view of what happened so that they can fine tune the identified issues in the AHL. What you don't want to do is let them drown in a manner where bad panic habits start to develop which end up taking over a passable talent.

We saw this with Dubnyk until Burke fixed him in Arizon, we saw it with Rittich (not fixed), Markstrom's career went that direction till Clark and I'm wondering if there's some of this going on with Vladar right now.

You can override a goalie's talent into a complete mess. Look at what's going on with Campbell right now. Dude is getting wrecked even at the AHL level. His save percentage in the AHL is worse than the NHL. We had a front row seat for a roller coaster goalie grave yard for almost a decade. Did people forget that already? We don't want that to happen with our goalies.

Wolf is talented, but he can get messed up. Look no further than what's going on with Levi in Buffalo right now. Saros was 21 when he got 21 games. Age 22 he got 26, but he still did play games in the AHL for that season. And this is a scenario where his development wasn't affected by pandemic related shut downs and restrictions. I posited in a different post that all goalies of Wolf's developmental arc/age are possibly 12-18 months behind a normal goalie developed to around age 23-24 prior to the pandemic.

Levi and Wolf are age 21 and 22 right now, but if comparing to the environment and scenario that Saros had, it's possible that Levi and Wolf are closer to Saro's age 19 and 20 development arc right now. It's OK to ease them in IMO.

Wolf didn't win that game. I'd give him a few week to work on a few things in the AHL, then bring him up again probably to get a bird's eye view for a game or two, then see if he can string a few wins in a row without bad habits. I'd send him down if he loses two in a row or has a bad showing, give him a few weeks then bring him up again.

I don't think we will ever agree here. I don't see how you can work on adjusting to nhl speed, power, skill in the ahl. A lot goalies don't play 150+ ahl games putting up numbers like Wolf.

Saros played 38 good ahl games the next year he played 21 nhl games and was in the ahl for 15 games.

Gibson played 46 ahl games then the next year saw 23 nhl games and 11 ahl games.

Ottinger played 44 ahl games the following year saw 29 nhl games and 0 ahl ( of course this was the pandemic year but I'd say it worked out)

The guy that made Vlad expendable played 10 nhl games and 9 ahl games his rookie year and the following year played 41nhl games and 5 ahl games.

Of course there are multiple ways to develop but a lot of the very good young goalies aren't developed the way Wolf is. They are given nhl games and practices to learn the nhl speed and skill. I don't think anyone is asking to run Wolf as the number 1 guy but it'd be nice to see there is a plan to give him 15-25 nhl games with time to practice with the team and learn from Markstrom instead of only getting called up for spot duty when someone is hurt

 

[Figgy44]

I don't think we will ever agree here. I don't see how you can work on adjusting to nhl speed, power, skill in the ahl. A lot goalies don't play 150+ ahl games putting up numbers like Wolf.

Saros played 38 good ahl games the next year he played 21 nhl games and was in the ahl for 15 games.

Gibson played 46 ahl games then the next year saw 23 nhl games and 11 ahl games.

Ottinger played 44 ahl games the following year saw 29 nhl games and 0 ahl ( of course this was the pandemic year but I'd say it worked out)

The guy that made Vlad expendable played 10 nhl games and 9 ahl games his rookie year and the following year played 41nhl games and 5 ahl games.

Of course there are multiple ways to develop but a lot of the very good young goalies aren't developed the way Wolf is. They are given nhl games and practices to learn the nhl speed and skill. I don't think anyone is asking to run Wolf as the number 1 guy but it'd be nice to see there is a plan to give him 15-25 nhl games with time to practice with the team and learn from Markstrom instead of only getting called up for spot duty when someone is hurt

Honestly speaking, I agree with you. But the part that's the key difference is that I think that although Wolf is showing well, IMO he and Levi are a little bit behind someone like Saros by up to 12-18 months because of the pandemic. Perhaps we can argue he's closer to 3-6 months behind because he's just that great of a talent and mind. If you think there's no such thing, that's fine. It's just a theory of mine.

I think it's solid we can agree to disagree and still have great debates on what we think is good for Wolf. Kudos to that .

But if comparing to Saros, Saros did play AHL games at age 22. So even if directly comparing, Wolf isn't behind or being seriously spited in getting AHL games right now at age 22. I agree I assume Wolf is full time by next season. Our disagreements so far is just whether he deserves to be full time as back up right now, or in a few months (half a season ish) when we sort things out with our goalie carousel or several months ago by moving someone in the off season. TBH, it's not as far apart as some posters seem to think.

The practicing thing I think it's unique. Since the Wranglers are in Calgary, I wonder what access Wolf has when the Flames are in town. That could be part of the practicing with the team stuff you're hoping for. I agree with you more exposure to that would be great.

 

[Lunatik]

Honestly speaking, I agree with you. But the part that's the key difference is that I think that although Wolf is showing well, IMO he and Levi are a little bit behind someone like Saros by up to 12-18 months because of the pandemic. Perhaps we can argue he's closer to 3-6 months behind because he's just that great of a talent and mind. If you think there's no such thing, that's fine. It's just a theory of mine.

I think it's solid we can agree to disagree and still have great debates on what we think is good for Wolf. Kudos to that .

But if comparing to Saros, Saros did play AHL games at age 22. So even if directly comparing, Wolf isn't behind or being seriously spited in getting AHL games right now at age 22. I agree I assume Wolf is full time by next season. Our disagreements so far is just whether he deserves to be full time as back up right now, or in a few months (half a season ish) when we sort things out with our goalie carousel or several months ago by moving someone in the off season. TBH, it's not as far apart as some posters seem to think.

The practicing thing I think it's unique. Since the Wranglers are in Calgary, I wonder what access Wolf has when the Flames are in town. That could be part of the practicing with the team stuff you're hoping for. I agree with you more exposure to that would be great.

It's also worth noting that Nashville had a very stifling defense back then, they didn't allow many shots or many quality shots against. Which is the opposite of this team lately. It's much easier to give a young goalie a chance in those circumstances because there is a better chance of success.

 

[Figgy44]

It's also worth noting that Nashville had a very stifling defense back then, they didn't allow many shots or many quality shots against. Which is the opposite of this team lately. It's much easier to give a young goalie a chance in those circumstances because there is a better chance of success.

Certainly, but I don't think that's the whole story. Some teams just don't give their backups the belief they have a fair chance. I have no doubt Vladar might feel that way now and definitely felt that way under Sutter too. Demko is one I'd like to analyze his path as well, but honestly speaking, I'd want to see how the whole Vancouver saga has transpired for the last decade or two to see if there's information to glean on how they dealt with Schneider, Lack, Luongo, Demko etc. as well as the others that didn't make it as well.

 

[Anglesmith]

I don't think we will ever agree here. I don't see how you can work on adjusting to nhl speed, power, skill in the ahl. A lot goalies don't play 150+ ahl games putting up numbers like Wolf.

Saros played 38 good ahl games the next year he played 21 nhl games and was in the ahl for 15 games.

Gibson played 46 ahl games then the next year saw 23 nhl games and 11 ahl games.

Ottinger played 44 ahl games the following year saw 29 nhl games and 0 ahl ( of course this was the pandemic year but I'd say it worked out)

The guy that made Vlad expendable played 10 nhl games and 9 ahl games his rookie year and the following year played 41nhl games and 5 ahl games.

Of course there are multiple ways to develop but a lot of the very good young goalies aren't developed the way Wolf is. They are given nhl games and practices to learn the nhl speed and skill. I don't think anyone is asking to run Wolf as the number 1 guy but it'd be nice to see there is a plan to give him 15-25 nhl games with time to practice with the team and learn from Markstrom instead of only getting called up for spot duty when someone is hurt

The guy who made Vladar expendable was sent down to the AHL because they wanted to try squeezing more out of Tuukka Rask even as Swayman was doing very well at the NHL level.

They then leaned into the journeyman UFA getting the majority of starts the following years after.

As you can imagine, this turned out to be a complete disaster for the Bruins as Swayman has demanded out. Or perhaps I'm misremembering.

 

[Figgy44]

The guy who made Vladar expendable was sent down to the AHL because they wanted to try squeezing more out of Tuukka Rask even as Swayman was doing very well at the NHL level.

They then leaned into the journeyman UFA getting the majority of starts the following years after.

As you can imagine, this turned out to be a complete disaster for the Bruins as Swayman has demanded out. Or perhaps I'm misremembering.

I think it was Ullmark actually. I think Vladar and Swayman were in similar situations fighting for the back up spot, giving similar showings for potential and Boston decided to try and get an asset vs risking losing one of them for nothing (ie: Waivers).

I think the issue was that they'd risk losing one of Swayman or Vladar anyways due to contract status, so they traded one of the two? Vladar is a year older, so maybe that meant the Bruins were interested moving him over Swayman, but I seemed to recall it was reported that Boston had multiple goalies on the table that off season. Ullmark was potentially available too or something. Ullmark then suddenly cemented the starter role with his performance post Rask?

 

[TheHudlinator]

The guy who made Vladar expendable was sent down to the AHL because they wanted to try squeezing more out of Tuukka Rask even as Swayman was doing very well at the NHL level.

They then leaned into the journeyman UFA getting the majority of starts the following years after.

As you can imagine, this turned out to be a complete disaster for the Bruins as Swayman has demanded out. Or perhaps I'm misremembering.

Yes they did send him down for Rask but that experiment quickly ended. To date Swayman has played a total of 14 ahl games. Swayman has played almost the exact number of games as Ullmark since he was brought to Boston.

Swayman and Ullmark are splitting starts having the best tandem last year and again this year with Swayman putting up ungodly numbers. I think this ended up being the farthest thing from a disaster for the Bruins.

 

[Anglesmith]

Yes they did send him down for Rask but that experiment quickly ended. To date Swayman has played a total of 14 ahl games. Swayman has played almost the exact number of games as Ullmark since he was brought to Boston.

Swayman and Ullmark are splitting starts having the best tandem last year and again this year with Swayman putting up ungodly numbers. I think this ended up being the farthest thing from a disaster for the Bruins.

100%. A goalie can clearly succeed with an organization even after being held out in favour of pursuing other priorities.

The Rask experiment ended quickly, but that was not by design. The Bruins planned to have Swayman finish in the AHL if Rask remained healthy. And I don't imagine much would have changed.

 

[TheHudlinator]

100%. A goalie can clearly succeed with an organization even after being held out in favour of pursuing other priorities.

The Rask experiment ended quickly, but that was not by design. The Bruins planned to have Swayman finish in the AHL if Rask remained healthy. And I don't imagine much would have changed.

The point isn't what other teams planned to do it is what other teams have done with many of the best young goalies in the game and if it helped them succeed.

The majority of young goalies don't play 150 games in the ahl then make the jump to me that says it is more advantages to give a young goalie nhl experience early to allow them to make their mistakes and learn from them to accelerate their growth.

Does that mean leaving wolf in the ahl won't work? Of course not but I believe it will only hurt us as we are only delaying wolf from seeing the difference in skill from the ahl to the nhl.

I just don't see the advantage is continuing to give a great learning opportunity to vlad over wolf given I think we all agree Vlad won't be here next year.

 

[Anglesmith]

The point isn't what other teams planned to do it is what other teams have done with many of the best young goalies in the game and if it helped them succeed.

The majority of young goalies don't play 150 games in the ahl then make the jump to me that says it is more advantages to give a young goalie nhl experience early to allow them to make their mistakes and learn from them to accelerate their growth.

Does that mean leaving wolf in the ahl won't work? Of course not but I believe it will only hurt us as we are only delaying wolf from seeing the difference in skill from the ahl to the nhl.

I just don't see the advantage is continuing to give a great learning opportunity to vlad over wolf given I think we all agree Vlad won't be here next year.

I think the Flames are looking at it as being in the exact same situation but with an extra pick. Or so they hope. There is bound to be a deadline after which they abandon hope of that, but you can tell that Conroy is pretty committed to being patient with these things.

 

[TheHudlinator]

I think the Flames are looking at it as being in the exact same situation but with an extra pick. Or so they hope. There is bound to be a deadline after which they abandon hope of that, but you can tell that Conroy is pretty committed to being patient with these things.

I don't disagree that is their idea but in my opinion it is misguided as furthering our prospects development should be the main priority especially when I believe Wolf is already better then Vlad.

 

[Felidae]

Wolf should be a regular NHLer. Let him play backup behind Markstrom, who has been very good despite what the numbers suggest.

Vladar has already had 2 full seasons as a backup goaltender for the flames with weak numbers. I think Vlad can still figure it out but at this point it shouldn't be with the flames, especially when we have Wolf waiting.

 

[Lunatik]

I don't disagree that is their idea but in my opinion it is misguided as furthering our prospects development should be the main priority especially when I believe Wolf is already better then Vlad.

Conroy is being smart, any extra pick we can add is a good thing. That pick could be the next Gaudreau, the next Brodie, the next Wolf.

You talk about how furthering development should be a priority that's not going to happen sitting on the bench behind Markstrom. Goalies need to face pucks to develop, anyone that have ever played goal will tell you that. The only thing that's misguided, is your opinion.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Conroy is being smart, any extra pick we can add is a good thing. That pick could be the next Gaudreau, the next Brodie, the next Wolf.

You talk about how furthering development should be a priority that's not going to happen sitting on the bench behind Markstrom. Goalies need to face pucks to develop, anyone that have ever played goal will tell you that. The only thing that's misguided, is your opinion.

Or it could even be a boat. A mid round pick should never outweigh the proper development of our top prospect. How many second round picks did we spend on goalies over the years? Smith, Elliot, Vladar, etc. a lot.

This is our top prospect. He should play 30 games at the NHL level. He has minimal to gain at the AHL level. He can be sent back to the AHL periodically if he needs a few more starts.

 

[Lunatik]

A mid round pick should never outweigh the proper development of our top prospect.

No, it shouldn't. But sitting on teh bench weeks at a time isn't properly developing a top prospect. You are literally arguing against proper development.

 

[TheHudlinator]

Or it could even be a boat. A mid round pick should never outweigh the proper development of our top prospect. How many second round picks did we spend on goalies over the years? Smith, Elliot, Vladar, etc. a lot.

This is our top prospect. He should play 30 games at the NHL level. He has minimal to gain at the AHL level. He can be sent back to the AHL periodically if he needs a few more starts.

Don't bother no matter how many times you point out other teams doing exactly that with their young stud goalie it will be ignored because of course the team is doing right

 

[InfinityIggy]

It's still early, I have no doubt Vlad is gonna get moved at some point here. FWIW, I think you're both right.

 

[Mobiandi]

He has nothing left to learn at the AHL level. It’s time to hurt some feelings and get him up with the big club

 

[Bounces R Way]

I just don't think this organization has earned much benefit of the doubt when it comes to developing goalies. Vladar should have been gone in the offseason. Who cares if it was for a 4th or 5th or whatever. Pretty much every pick after the top ~70 have roughly the same chance to be an NHL player anyway.

Wolf has earned an NHL shot being back to back AHL goalie of the year and the reigning MVP of the league. The Flames should be finding a way to give it to him. I don't think it's necessarily hurting his development to be starting games for the Wranglers right now but when he sees Pospisil, Zary, DeSimone all up with the big club getting NHL paychecks and he's not, well none of those guys were AHL MVPs.

 

[Kranix]

When he sees Pospisil, Zary, DeSimone all up with the big club getting NHL paychecks and he's not, well none of those guys were AHL MVPs.

We need to stop talking as if goaltenders are in the same boat as skaters. They're two distinct kingdoms of life. They're not playing the same game. There's only 2 g-spots on a roster.

 

[Lunatik]

I just don't think this organization has earned much benefit of the doubt when it comes to developing goalies. Vladar should have been gone in the offseason. Who cares if it was for a 4th or 5th or whatever. Pretty much every pick after the top ~70 have roughly the same chance to be an NHL player anyway.

Wolf has earned an NHL shot being back to back AHL goalie of the year and the reigning MVP of the league. The Flames should be finding a way to give it to him. I don't think it's necessarily hurting his development to be starting games for the Wranglers right now but when he sees Pospisil, Zary, DeSimone all up with the big club getting NHL paychecks and he's not, well none of those guys were AHL MVPs.

It's not about defending the organization, frankly I've hated the Vladar extension since it was signed.

What it is about is how we think prospects should be developed. Anglesmith and I believe that it's best for Wolf to play regularly as a starter, rather than sitting on the bench and playing once every week or two. Others seem to think because he "has nothing to prove" in the AHL that he should be on the NHL roster, even if it means not playing.

 

[Felidae]

It's not about defending the organization, frankly I've hated the Vladar extension since it was signed.

What it is about is how we think prospects should be developed. Anglesmith and I believe that it's best for Wolf to play regularly as a starter, rather than sitting on the bench and playing once every week or two. Others seem to think because he "has nothing to prove" in the AHL that he should be on the NHL roster, even if it means not playing.

He will be playing, just significantly less. But it's a matter of quality over quantity imo.

At some point he needs to learn to play against NHL calibre players, and he can't do that in the AHL, a league he's already dominated.

Heck who knows, he might even prove himself worthy to take some games from Markstrom to even out the workload, but we won't know until he gets enough games in the NHL


Are we just gonna wait until Markstrom isn't a capable starting goaltender? That might take a while, and better hope Wolf is willing to wait.

 

[Lunatik]

He will be playing, just significantly less. But it's a matter of quality over quantity imo.

At some point he needs to learn to play against NHL calibre players, and he can't do that in the AHL, a league he's already dominated.

Heck who knows, he might even prove himself worthy to take some games from Markstrom to even out the workload, but we won't know until he gets enough games in the NHL


Are we just gonna wait until Markstrom isn't a capable starting goaltender? That might take a while, and better hope Wolf is willing to wait.

No we don't wait for Markstrom to be incapable, but we aren't in a time crunch at the same time. Wolf is waiver exempt this year and next still. It's hardly as dire as some are making it out to be.

This is what my ideal plan would be...

This year, we give him spot starts in the NHL, and if he's looking good, make sure he's the backup at the deadline. Ideally he'll see 10-15 games by seasons end.

Next year, we sign a Domingue type goalie that will clear waivers without issue but won't be a complete liability. Have Wolf start in the NHL, and the 3rd-stringer in the AHL... Start Wolf every 3rd or 4th game and lets him show his worth. If Wolf struggles he can still be sent to the AHL for a bit if needed.

Then in 2025-26, Markstrom will be in the final year of his deal, Wolf starts 1/2 the games leading to the deadline, at which point we consider moving Markstrom.

Speaking of Markstrom, you're a Panthers fan, so you are probably aware of this... he was an elite goaltending prospect too, he ended up spending parts of 5 years in the AHL, all of which he had good to great seasons in the top minor league. And he grew into being a Vezina caliber goaltender.

Edit: Just to be clear, in a perfect world I'd have bumped this up a year and had Wolf as the backup playing every 3rd to 4th game this season. But Treliving signing Vladar to that ill-advised contract made that extremely difficult and if we bought him out or waived him before he played a game in that extension, it could make the organization look bad to potential signees, both RFA and UFA; and like I said above, we aren't in a time-crunch, so what we need to do is let Wolf see as many pucks as possible.