Proposal: Duncan Keith to Tor

[BK]

Keith is not going to be a fit unless the move out someone with salary. His number is fine for what his production will be but the Leafs have some big deals coming up and will need to allocate that cap space there. Just not a great fit anymore.

 

[Randy Randerson]

You had me...and you lost me.

ha, most NHL teams are run by smart people*

Why do you think Chicago was so competitive for so long and won 3 cups and 5 western conference finals to see them now at the bottom? Its because you pay the price for success. Teams don't just think about being competitive , if they feel this is their time they will understand certain sacrifices.

Toronto is a young promising unproven team , Matthews, Tavares are great but unproven , you need a mixture of players whom bring that type of experience to help with taking the next step.

Keith's numbers are just as good anemic not better than the defenseman Toronto already has and he isn't showing any signs of slowing Down.

Toronto's cap situation isn't going to get any better and GMs know that so if their shot is this year or worst case next year Keith would make sense and would be highly effective and targeted.

Chicago was successful because of the core they drafted, but let's look at the type of additions that they made when their core players were the same age that Toronto's are now:
Locked up Patrick Sharp to a 4 year contract @ $3.9M per to support their longer window of opportunity

Locked up Keith to a 13 year, $5.5M AAV deal that would be cap circumvention today, buying all of his UFA years knowing that it would be a bad contract at the end but securing all of his prime years at a very affordable rate (36yo Sergei Gonchar got $5.5Mx3 years for all non-prime years in the same free agent class,

Locked up Hjalmarsson to a 4 year contract to support the primes of their core players

locked up Seabrook to a 5 year contract to support the primes of their core players

locked up Brian Campbell to an 8 year contract for the same reason



Added Marian Hossa, 30 years old on a 12 year contract at an AAV of $5.275M. This would be cap circumvention today, but they got Hossa at a very good cap hit (about $2M less than market, 27yo Gaborik signed the same year at $7.5M as a UFA for example) by offering a contract they knew would be bad at the end but very cap efficient for the prime of their core

in the next few years, they would also lose, for cap reasons:
Versteeg
Ladd
Buff
etc
etc

So Chicago is a very good example of what happens to good teams in a cap era, even though they did plan for the long term, they knew that some of these contracts would be bad at the end but they wanted a long window of being good and they were willing to accept the position they're in now if it meant winning cups. It worked

Also, did they make any older player additions like Keith would be now? I don't remember any. I think Chicago did the opposite of what you think they did

 

[Randy Randerson]

3rd pair.. lmao Leafs fans.. I swear man.

that was a projection to a couple of years into the future when he'll be in his late 30's and still under contract for a couple of years at $5.5M+ on a Leaf team that's going to have a prime aged core and already have cap issues.

That said, I don't know if he plays on the Leafs 2nd pair today, LD isn't a position of need for us. He's a 2nd pairing dman in a vacuum today

 

[Taylorst]

You didn't answer his question. The question was, what 35 year old did Chicago overpay for with young assets before they made their cup runs. You can't say the had veteran Dmen....that's not the point, who did they trade for?

I just answered your question. In fact Keith's numbers atn35 years old are better than anyone currently on that teams defense. Which makes him just as good if not better. And I'll chose the latter.


Your stuck on his age and if you get past that you'd see he is still by all standards a top defenseman .

What's the point of arguing with a leafs fan who is so short sighted .

As of now this leafs defense is unproven and unreliable to take that team to a cup. Tavares and Matthews both are unproven and regular season accomplishments mean nothing unless both can lead that team to a cup,

Name one person on that team who has the leadership and has won a cup ? Nobody .

 

[Martin Skoula]

I just answered your question. In fact Keith's numbers atn35 years old are better than anyone currently on that teams defense. Which makes him just as good if not better. And I'll chose the latter.


Your stuck on his age and if you get past that you'd see he is still by all standards a top defenseman .

What's the point of arguing with a leafs fan who is so short sighted .

As of now this leafs defense is unproven and unreliable to take that team to a cup. Tavares and Matthews both are unproven and regular season accomplishments mean nothing unless both can lead that team to a cup,

Name one person on that team who has the leadership and has won a cup ? Nobody .

Who had leadership and won a cup in Chicago before they won their 1st? Nobody.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Who had leadership and won a cup in Chicago before they won their 1st? Nobody.

was just about to say the same. People fixate on things like this, but the intangibles and "knowing how to win" are background noise, not like anyone gets to the highest stage in their sport having never won anything before

 

[Liferleafer]

I just answered your question. In fact Keith's numbers atn35 years old are better than anyone currently on that teams defense. Which makes him just as good if not better. And I'll chose the latter.


Your stuck on his age and if you get past that you'd see he is still by all standards a top defenseman .

What's the point of arguing with a leafs fan who is so short sighted .

As of now this leafs defense is unproven and unreliable to take that team to a cup. Tavares and Matthews both are unproven and regular season accomplishments mean nothing unless both can lead that team to a cup,

Name one person on that team who has the leadership and has won a cup ? Nobody .

Ron Hainsey. Now it's your turn...name 1 person with experience and a Stanley Cup on the Hawks the year that young team won it's first cup.

 

[Taylorst]

ha, most NHL teams are run by smart people*


Chicago was successful because of the core they drafted, but let's look at the type of additions that they made when their core players were the same age that Toronto's are now:
Locked up Patrick Sharp to a 4 year contract @ $3.9M per to support their longer window of opportunity

Locked up Keith to a 13 year, $5.5M AAV deal that would be cap circumvention today, buying all of his UFA years knowing that it would be a bad contract at the end but securing all of his prime years at a very affordable rate (36yo Sergei Gonchar got $5.5Mx3 years for all non-prime years in the same free agent class,

Locked up Hjalmarsson to a 4 year contract to support the primes of their core players

locked up Seabrook to a 5 year contract to support the primes of their core players

locked up Brian Campbell to an 8 year contract for the same reason



Added Marian Hossa, 30 years old on a 12 year contract at an AAV of $5.275M. This would be cap circumvention today, but they got Hossa at a very good cap hit (about $2M less than market, 27yo Gaborik signed the same year at $7.5M as a UFA for example) by offering a contract they knew would be bad at the end but very cap efficient for the prime of their core

in the next few years, they would also lose, for cap reasons:
Versteeg
Ladd
Buff
etc
etc

So Chicago is a very good example of what happens to good teams in a cap era, even though they did plan for the long term, they knew that some of these contracts would be bad at the end but they wanted a long window of being good and they were willing to accept the position they're in now if it meant winning cups. It worked

Also, did they make any older player additions like Keith would be now? I don't remember any. I think Chicago did the opposite of what you think they did

After their first cup run they had to shed lots of players great ones

But going forward 2013 through 2015 it was all older aging players, rosival, handzus, vermette brad.

Also those players contracts where done when this team was in a previous CBA. Toews and Kane were 19 and 20 years old that helped a lot.
Toronto has some huge contracts and commitments already and next year

So their window is going to be different than Chicago's window was.

 

[Taylorst]

Ron Hainsey. Now it's your turn...name 1 person with experience and a Stanley Cup on the Hawks the year that young team won it's first cup.

I think it was Campbell, but I know hossa went to 2 Stanley cups didn't win it until he went to Chicago .

 

[Randy Randerson]

After their first cup run they had to shed lots of players great ones

But going forward 2013 through 2015 it was all older aging players, rosival, handzus, vermette brad.

Also those players contracts where done when this team was in a previous CBA. Toews and Kane were 19 and 20 years old that helped a lot.
Toronto has some huge contracts and commitments already and next year

So their window is going to be different than Chicago's window was.

for sure, that's what I'm saying though, Toronto is the 2009-2010(ish) Blackhawks right now, not the 2013/2014 version. Toronto's time to add that type of player is a few years down the road when we see our window closing on the horizon. Toronto just made our "Hossa" splash with Tavares, if we could have lowered his AAV by 30% by offering another 5 years that's what would have happened

 

[Taylorst]

Ron Hainsey. Now it's your turn...name 1 person with experience and a Stanley Cup on the Hawks the year that young team won it's first cup.

If you think hainsey is a upgrade over Keith your nuts.

 

[Liferleafer]

I think it was Campbell, but I know hossa went to 2 Stanley cups didn't win it until he went to Chicago .

Nope, the only cup Campbell won was in 2010 with the Hawks.

 

[Liferleafer]

If you think hainsey is a upgrade over Keith your nuts.

That wasn't the question.

 

[tmg]

I think it was Campbell, but I know hossa went to 2 Stanley cups didn't win it until he went to Chicago .

John Madden with the 00 and 03 Devils
Andrew Ladd with the 06 Hurricanes

 

[Taylorst]

for sure, that's what I'm saying though, Toronto is the 2009-2010(ish) Blackhawks right now, not the 2013/2014 version. Toronto's time to add that type of player is a few years down the road when we see our window closing on the horizon. Toronto just made our "Hossa" splash with Tavares, if we could have lowered his AAV by 30% by offering another 5 years that's what would have happened

I'll buy your point as fair. However Tavares compared to hossa no comparison.


But also the cap era is even harder now. Toronto's window won't be open that long just due to the high salary demands. Therefore Toronto will have to decide who is their core and the rest become rentals

 

[b1e9a8r5s]

Who had leadership and won a cup in Chicago before they won their 1st? Nobody.

John Madden. Laad had also won a cup with the Canes.

Not that I agree with Taylorst

 

[Taylorst]

John Madden with the 00 and 03 Devils
Andrew Ladd with the 06 Hurricanes

Thanks man for the reminder of those guys. Lol right on

 

[LucicAndChong]

Keith @ 30% Retained
Jokiharju

for

Johnsson
Gardiner
Liljegren
2019 1st

? Criticism welcome. I'm not sure of value for Chicago because I don't watch them much so let me know how far off I am

 

[Brock Radunske]

If you think hainsey is a upgrade over Keith your nuts.

That's not what he's saying. He's punching holes in your "cup experience" argument.

 

[Taylorst]

John Madden. Laad had also won a cup with the Canes.

Not that I agree with Taylorst

Lol thanks I forgot about those 2 guys.

 

[Martin Skoula]

If you think hainsey is a upgrade over Keith your nuts.

Prove it.

Keith: 14 assists, 3 of which are primary assists.
Hainsey: 12 points, 3 goals and 3 primary assists.

This is with Hainsey being used as one of the main defensive workhorses on the team (46.9% ozone starts 29.78 TOI QoC, 50.64 CF% QoC) while Keith is being spoonfed baby soft minutes (58.7% ozone starts, 29.38 TOI QoC, 50.33 CF% QoC). Keith is 3rd last in terms of quality of competition on the Hawk's defense, only ahead of a rookie Jokiharju and Manning while also getting the 2nd highest zone starts among the defense. Despite the baby-soft minutes he gets, he has the highest expected goals against of the defense and the worst expected goal differential.

Hainsey is a guy who gets torn apart on our boards regularly, yet is putting up the same, if not better (considering usage), totals than Keith. Which of Keith's numbers exactly are better than anyone on our team's defense? Be specific.

Give me something other than "I watch Keith and he's really really good I promise, he won cups 5 years ago!"

 

[Taylorst]

Keith @ 30% Retained
Jokiharju

for

Johnsson
Gardiner
Liljegren
2019 1st

? Criticism welcome. I'm not sure of value for Chicago because I don't watch them much so let me know how far off I am

Way off Johki is a non starter.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I'll buy your point as fair. However Tavares compared to hossa no comparison.


But also the cap era is even harder now. Toronto's window won't be open that long just due to the high salary demands. Therefore Toronto will have to decide who is their core and the rest become rentals

all the comparisons are rough, no two situations are exactly alike. Tavares is the more impactful player no doubt, but he's our long term UFA add that signals "the window is open" just like Hossa was for the Blackhawks

Chicago managed to keep their window open for about 8 years (including 2 years after their last cup, they had 100+ point years and were top 5 teams in the league for both of those years), I think Toronto is in good position to have about the same run. We're following a similar blueprint and I'd argue that Matthews/Marner has a chance to be a better duo that Toews/Kane with about as good of a supporting cast. I see Matthews as a rich man's Toews because of his offense and is still pretty good defensively, Marner I thought was a poor man's Kane but he might end up on that level if he keeps performing like he is

 

[Taylorst]

Prove it.

Keith: 14 assists, 3 of which are primary assists.
Hainsey: 12 points, 3 goals and 3 primary assists.

This is with Hainsey being used as one of the main defensive workhorses on the team (46.9% ozone starts 29.78 TOI QoC, 50.64 CF% QoC) while Keith is being spoonfed baby soft minutes (58.7% ozone starts, 29.38 TOI QoC, 50.33 CF% QoC). Keith is 3rd last in terms of quality of competition on the Hawk's defense, only ahead of a rookie Jokiharju and Manning while also getting the 2nd highest zone starts among the defense. Despite the baby-soft minutes he gets, he has the highest expected goals against of the defense and the worst expected goal differential.

Hainsey is a guy who gets torn apart on our boards regularly, yet is putting up the same, if not better (considering usage), totals than Keith. Which of Keith's numbers exactly are better than anyone on our team's defense? Be specific.

Give me something other than "I watch Keith and he's really really good I promise, he won cups 5 years ago!"

If you take that approach , then look at Toronto's forwards and defensive core compared to Chicago group

Keith is paired up with a rookie , the rest of the defensive pairings blow, from the bottom 6 forwards this team has no help.

Hainsey isn't playing on a team that is stripped of talent.

 

[LucicAndChong]

Way off Johki is a non starter.

is he that highly touted?