For the rest of their games the two aren't close. I always hear Sens fans saying Duchene is only good for 10 more points than Z but where did this come from? From last season when Duchene had one of his worst statistical seasons while Zibanejad had a career year at 51 points? That's just dumb. You don't compare the highs of one players career to the lows of the other.
Careers:
Duchene: 377pts in 495gms = .762PPG = 62 points per 82 games played
Zibanejad : 151pts in 281gms = 0.537PPG = 44 points per 82 games played
Last 3 seasons combined:
Duchene: 184pts in 229 gms = 0.803PPG = 66 points per 82 games played
Zibanejad: 130 pts in 230 gms = 0.565PPG = 46 points per 82 games played
Last season only:
Duchene: 59 points in 76 games = 0.776PPG = 64 points per 82 games played
Zibanejad: 51 points in 81 games = 0.630PPG = 52 points per 82 games played
So Please, fans of the Ottawa Senators stop saying that Matt Duchene is only 10 points better than Zibanejad. You're all very wrong when you say that.
A career comparison of the two players is more inaccurate than a comparison of last season because this is only Zibanejad's 4th season in the league, while Duchene has been in the NHL for 7 seasons now. How they compared in the 2015/16 season is also a far more accurate representation of how they will compare in future seasons than comparing numbers from many seasons ago when Zibanejad was just entering the league.
My point stands - going into his 8th season, Duchene is fully developed at this point and it is likely what you see is what you get with him. If you know anything about Zibanejad you'd know he was drafted as an extremely raw project player that was basically a collection of tools that needed refining. He's still very raw and shows flashes of a higher level but still needs to find consistency in his game. There is still more development to be had with Zibanejad. He'll continue to improve offensively and defensively. I don't think he'll ever produce at the level of Duchene, but he'll bring other assets to the table that will bridge the divide in offense to a certain degree.
I'm not even going to touch the rest of this, but as I've posted before, this myth needs to die. Let's deal with some actual facts about Zibanejad being a two way centre.
- Zibanejad got an utterly ridiculous 60+% of his starts in the offensive zone, 18th highest among all centre's who played over 30 games last year
- He faced similar competition to Duchene
- Played with top linemates (Ryan, Karlsson, Hoffman)
- Did not suppress shots against any better than Duchene
- Is far worse on faceoffs than Duchene (50% vs 57%)
- More goals against per 60 minutes than Duchene
- Nearly identical relative corsi
He had a superior raw corsi by a bit, but considering Duchene was on the worst possession team in the league, that's not surprise. I'm just curious to understand how the superior defensive player got top offensive linemates, more offensive zone starts, and somehow was on ice for more goals against per 60 minutes, and was on ice or a similar amount of shots against as well. Regarding offense,
Offensively, Zibanejad has a career high of 51 points, a threshold Duchene has surpassed five times in seven years - and one of those two seasons he did not was the lockout year, and in 47 games Duchene was only 8 points shy of beating 51 points again too. The other year he did not was the season in which he only played 58 games and played through injuries the entire year. If we extrapolate his lockout year, he has surpassed Zibanejad's career high in points 6 times in 7 years, and the one season he did not was when he was injured.
You bring up some good points. The offensive zone starts was something I didn't know about. Not sure why that number was so high. The other stats don't mean much though. Corsi, shot suppression, goals against - these are all team stats. Like the Avs, the Sens as a team gave up a ridiculous number of shots and goals per game. This had less to do with certain players and more to do with the overall system, team defense and goaltending.
If you watch Zibanejad you'll find he's very responsible defensively. Very rarely does he take risks offensively. He's always one of the first guys back and does not leave his man. He uses his big 6'2, 220lb frame, great reach, and his above-average skating ability to make an impact all over the ice. I think he's on the same level as a guy like Duchene defensively right now, but will be better in the future when his game matures. Have to remember Zibanejad is younger than Duchene and was considerably more raw than Duchene at the same age. He's not a finished project.
As for being a better fit on the Sens, I would disagree. The Senators need a better play making centre to work with Hoffman and/or Ryan, considering that Turris will likely not be paired with both of them at the same time.
Zibanejad isn't a puck distributing centre. He's more of a drive the net type of guy, or a player who sets up to hammer a one-timer from the off-wing. For players like Hoffman or Ryan to excel in their roles on the team, the Sens need a 2C (or a 1C depending on how you view Turris) who is better at distributing the puck. In this sense, I would say that Duchene is a much better fit for the Senators.
Granted, that does not factor in dollars and contracts. Because the cheaper player of the two is obviously the better fit in that regard.
Duchene is the better fit right now, but after drafting Brown we don't need to break the bank to acquire a #1 center. With proper development he'll be the big #1 center we have been looking for, Turris will be the #2 guy, and Zibanejad can dominate his competition as the 3rd line center.
I'm expecting Zib to get a Kadri-type contract as an upcoming RFA. Something between 4 and 5 million a season for 4+ years. That's very stomachable as a budget team. In comparison Duchene makes 6M the next 3 seasons, after which he is a UFA, and undoubtedly demand a big contract. Sens don't have the money to give him, Ryan, Turris, Stone and Hoffman 5-7M each. If the Sens were to swap Duchene for Zibanejad, we would probably only get 3 years out of Duchene before he walks as a UFA. I don't know about you but I'd take 5+ years of Zibanejad at 4M over 3 years of Duchene at 6M.
Has Duchenes value really dropped off that much that hes not worth Zibanejad+Ceci?
Figured Avs fans would laugh this off.
Has less to do with Duchene's value falling off and more to do with fans overrating the value of star players in general, as well as not knowing anything about Sens players or their value.
