Dubas' Timeline

[Dipsy Doodle]

Dubas has stated that he wants the Pens to be able to contend again while Crosby is with the team.

What year do you suppose he's targeting, how effective do you think Crosby will be at that time, and given the current state of our prospect pool what sort of quality/quantity do you think he'll have to add to not only compensate for the deterioration of our stars, but dramatically improve the team? Are multiple 2nd rounders and a couple mid/top 10 1sts going to bridge that gap in a few years time?

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[HandshakeLine]

Without being ruthless regarding the supporting cast, I think there is no way this will actually happen and this is just the GM lying as per usual.

 

[Sideline]

Sid will need Jagr levels of longevity to see the Penguins truly contend again. If they bottom out the next two years then you could potentially have a 22 and 21 year old superstar that could carry the mail for 42 year old Sid. This is assuming uncle Gary fixes the lottery for us and we get Makar and Bedard level players.

 

[HandshakeLine]

And again for clarity, I have no problems with the GM just saying this because ownership wants him to say it. I have tons of problems with a GM that seriously believes this and yet doesn't do the necessary moves.

 

[Malkinstheman]

Tbh the whole contend while Sid is here thing feels like a lie to satiate casual fans. Malkin is a 60ish point guy at this point and Letangs game is starting to drop off as well. I don't see in what universe you can win with the core being in their 40s.

The core made the decision to retire together and are competitive guys so you can't just rip the team down completely. Until they retire you have to keep up the facade of "it's a retool".

 

[HandshakeLine]

Tbh the whole contend while Sid is here thing feels like a lie to satiate casual fans. Malkin is a 60ish point guy at this point and Letangs game is starting to drop off as well. I don't see in what universe you can win with the core being in their 40s.

The core made the decision to retire together and are competitive guys so you can't just rip the team down completely. Until they retire you have to keep up the facade of "it's a retool".

I still contend that if they were utterly ruthless in what the supporting cast like Pettersson, Eller, Rust, EK would fetch on the market, we could still potentially bring in some useful assets for postponing the rebuild (not starting it, per se). But that would need us to be deadass brutal in evaluating the roster and also require a change of playing style/system which goes back to the coach.

Everything we did this offseason, as inconsequential as the signings may be, are also exactly the kind of moves Mike Sullivan would want us to make to "stay competitive." That's what's giving me pause-- I don't think those are good moves at all. We'll see. But without some real soulsearching and massive luck, this team isn't competing until we get a new franchise player through a few years of bottom feeding.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

They’d need to have 3-4 stars for 87/71 to be support players with. And goaltending. And it would need to be by 26-2027 season.

Not really feasible imo.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Crosby and Malkin are 37 and 38 this season. It's over. Just lip service at this point.

 

[Sideline]

They’d need to have 3-4 stars for 87/71 to be support players with. And goaltending. And it would need to be by 26-2027 season.

Not really feasible imo.

I agree. Even if the lottery balls get them back to back 1st overall picks in 25 and 26 and both those guys are ultra high-end prospects you still need the Blomqvist, Yager, Koiuvnen, and Picking tier prospects to be solid contributors. That is waaaay too many lucky breaks to think is even remotely possible.

 

[SomeDude]

The audacity of Dubas to think we are that stupid to believe that is possible.

 

[Hell Yeah!!!]

Dubas wants what we all want...to hit the lotto.

In the meantime he's grinding away like the rest of us.

 

[HandshakeLine]

The audacity of Dubas to think we are that stupid to believe that is possible.

It kind of rules because it's either just pure naked contempt, or someone drank enough of the cool-aid to believe it.

 

[Peat]

The Yohe article on this that I read said 2-3 years.

That's super ambitious but, if a bunch of things break right, possible.

What he needs for that to work is -

A ton of cheap contributors from the prospect ranks

Weasel out of the expensive and not worth it contracts on the books and replace them smarter

Somehow trade for, sign, or develop about 3 big talents


It's probably not going to work but he might as well shoot for it. Worse comes to worse, hopefully it generates the assets to fuel a proper rebuild.


p.s. Just on the cheap contributors - he basically needs a Murray/Maatta/Dumo/Rust/Sheary/Kuhnhackl/Wilson style wave (purposefully leaving Jake off as he was a bit more special and not necessarily needed to win a cup). It's a steep ask but Blomqvist in 2-3 years is a reasonable probability (with Murashov a reasonable second shot); most of those forwards were depth guys and having, say, Yager/Ilyin be Rust/Sheary in 2-3 years is at least a reasonable possibility; where it falls apart feels like the defensive prospects but it doesn't necessarily have to be 1 for 1. Or maybe he can leverage a few more trades to grab something. Or maybe the coaches in WBS step it up and develop a guy we didn't think much of.

That bit is reasonable. It's the replacing the core that quickly that isn't really.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think he’s going to tank this year and then try to run it back next year tbh.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I agree. Even if the lottery balls get them back to back 1st overall picks in 25 and 26 and both those guys are ultra high-end prospects you still need the Blomqvist, Yager, Koiuvnen, and Picking tier prospects to be solid contributors. That is waaaay too many lucky breaks to think is even remotely possible.

The Yohe article on this that I read said 2-3 years.

That's super ambitious but, if a bunch of things break right, possible.

What he needs for that to work is -

A ton of cheap contributors from the prospect ranks

Weasel out of the expensive and not worth it contracts on the books and replace them smarter

Somehow trade for, sign, or develop about 3 big talents


It's probably not going to work but he might as well shoot for it. Worse comes to worse, hopefully it generates the assets to fuel a proper rebuild.

It’s doable just going to take insanely good drafting. You can do anything in this league if you hit on picks. Whether that’s luck or skill.. idk.

but it means you get 4-6 contributors/regulars from current prospect pool

Trade for a core level player

Draft at least one core level player. Maybe 2

A couple savvy FA signings or trades that round out depth

Would have to look like this IMO

Stud-Stud-plus regular
Stud-Crosby-plus regular
Malkin-plus regular-contributor
depth-depth-depth

Stud-plus regular
Contributor-EK
contributor-depth

Stud goalie

Really hard. Not impossible but it’ll mean Nick Pryor is basically Hakan Anderson

 

[Peat]

It’s doable just going to take insanely good drafting. You can do anything in this league if you hit on picks. Whether that’s luck or skill.. idk.

but it means you get 4-6 contributors/regulars from current prospect pool

Trade for a core level player

Draft at least one core level player. Maybe 2

A couple savvy FA signings or trades that round out depth

Would have to look like this IMO

Stud-Stud-plus regular
Stud-Crosby-plus regular
Malkin-plus regular-contributor
depth-depth-depth

Stud-plus regular
Contributor-EK
contributor-depth

Stud goalie

Really hard. Not impossible but it’ll mean Nick Pryor is basically Hakan Anderson

In 2-3 years? Unless Dubas picks up a couple of top ten picks, those studs are going to have to come from trade and free agency. We just don't have the prospects where we can expect that and don't really expect to get them either.

It's the studs really. But if you want to be an optimist, look at Florida's roster. It's probably the biggest counter-argument that you could make to the idea that you have to draft and develop, and they did it from a normal NHL franchise level rather than Vegas' funky expansion draft fueled extravaganza.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I think he’s going to tank this year and then try to run it back next year tbh.

I don't know how the 2025 draft is shaping up, but it's not the worst idea in the world.

 

[Sidgeni Malkby]

Can't expect the GM to say otherwise. He still needs to fill the seats.

I do think though, he can fill the top 6 with fun to watch guys. Skinner would have been nice. If he can swing a Laine trade without giving up futures. If we are going down, might as well sign/trade for the 30+ guys in the top 6.

I really wonder though, is Crosby going to extend! If he really wants to win, he probably shouldn't.

 

[HandshakeLine]

There was absolutely no way Skinner was coming here unless it was for absurd amount and term.

 

[molon labe]

And again for clarity, I have no problems with the GM just saying this because ownership wants him to say it. I have tons of problems with a GM that seriously believes this and yet doesn't do the necessary moves.

Tbh the whole contend while Sid is here thing feels like a lie to satiate casual fans. Malkin is a 60ish point guy at this point and Letangs game is starting to drop off as well. I don't see in what universe you can win with the core being in their 40s.

The core made the decision to retire together and are competitive guys so you can't just rip the team down completely. Until they retire you have to keep up the facade of "it's a retool".

Sums it up.

You've got business decisions that - honestly - don't add up either. But they're trying desperately to salvage fan interest by spreading more lies. Will it work? I think for some. But I believe that VAST majority of Penguin fans are going to either see right through it or realize really, really quickly that the team is ass and put the pieces together. Interest is going to tank regardless of how many bobbleheads and 'upcoming' Sid/Karlsson stats you display to start games.

Whether it be lies or downright gross-negligence coupled with stupidity - I just don't have much tolerance for either for a GM Sullivan AGM Dubas pairing raking in nearly 100M USD. The more you see them / their moves / their bullshit they spew - the worse it gets. Goes from acceptance to apathy into frustration and hatred.

 

[Victor Z]

Going all-in to contend? No chance. We haven't got the assets to acquire top players who are in their prime years.

Going all-in to tank and accelerate the rebuild? No chance. Empty seats at PPG Arena is FSG's worst fear, and Sidney Crosby might cry.

Doing the softest "soft rebuild" in the history of sports by hoarding picks in a draft that's 3 years away and whose results won't pay off until 2031, if ever?

Check.

I hope we all like what the Flyers have been doing for the past several years -- finishing in the mushy middle of non-playoff teams -- because that's our future now too.

 

[Gurglesons]

Going all-in to contend? No chance. We haven't got the assets to acquire top players who are in their prime years.

Going all-in to tank and accelerate the rebuild? No chance. Empty seats at PPG Arena is FSG's worst fear, and Sidney Crosby might cry.

Doing the softest "soft rebuild" in the history of sports by hoarding picks in a draft that's 3 years away and whose results won't pay off until 2031, if ever?

Check.

I hope we all like what the Flyers have been doing for the past several years -- finishing in the mushy middle of non-playoff teams -- because that's our future now too.

Yeah, not looking forward to the next 5-7 years as a fan.

 

[BusinessGoose]

Well, what's the definition of contend. For Cups? No way. For playoffs? I mean, we were "contenders" the last two years there....

If you're top 75% of the league, you were "contending" in NHL with 50% making playoffs.

 

[molon labe]

Well, what's the definition of contend. For Cups? No way. For playoffs? I mean, we were "contenders" the last two years there....

If you're top 75% of the league, you were "contending" in NHL with 50% making playoffs.

Problem with this part though, is that other teams are getting better and better while we are getting worse and worse. We are also aging in a worse way than the other teams in the East.

So to focus on two years of "BARELY MISSING!" doesn't tell the whole story. Those other teams are getting better and other teams that missed are now going to be pushing harder.

Also agree above to the 'mushy middle' sentiment. Doesn't make sense and really doesn't make sense for any of Sid/Letang/Geno/Karlsson either. Sid should request a trade because, of the 4, he can actually make a difference on any team in the NHL whereas the others might help might not.

 

[Turin]

2026/2027 is the last possible shot with this group. The plan is probably to have prospects contributing by then/Malkin and Letang fully transitioned to role players, and to have brought in a new young nucleus. There’s really not enough time though, time to do that was 2021 not 2024.

Overall the plan is not to fight tooth and nail to just make the playoffs but get enough assets so that when the wheels fall off completely for the core the system is strong and it doesn’t take another 5-8 years to rebuild