Dubas details his 'biggest mistake' as Leafs GM in new book

[Oleksiak]

No troll , why can't 4ppg players with a decent team around them win more than 1 round??
Like its nice to say Dubas overpaid everybody but the leafs had a shot in every single one of the series where they got slapped around and they still got slapped around. At what point is it as much on the players as it is on the GM. You can talk about team construction and yadda yadda if AM34 or Mitch score a goal here or there the entire narrative is different

AM34 has a disappearing act every post season but focus on Dubas Keefe and Mitch!

Because the team around them isn't decent.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

Because the team around them isn't decent.

Lmao yeah ok

Blame the rest of the team! Blame keefe!

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

They are good players , that's whats so hilarious about the whole thing , they completely shrink when it counts

None of them have shown they can take over a series or entire playoff run.

That's not to say none of them could win the Cup, but it seems like it would have to be as a complimentary piece on a team that already has 1 or 2 actual playoff performers. The problem is their salary is that of players who *should* be dominating series.

Thus far, they're regular season compilers who seem to be incapable of elevating their game when it actually matters. Prime Alexei Yashin would have fit in perfectly with this core.

 

[Bandit]

Dubas wrote a book that he knew most die hard Toronto fans would probably buy. Guess the guy isn't as dumb as he seems.

 

[Oleksiak]

Lmao yeah ok

Blame the rest of the team! Blame keefe!

Never said those floaters didn't deserve some blame. This is what happens when you hire a GM who is completely unqualified to work in hockey ops.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

signing crap tavares to an atrocious deal, no?

My hot take - Tavares deal on its own has been one of the better UFA signings. The issue is the team shyte the bed in the PO's but Tavares earned his contract the first 5 and the last 2 are a lot better than most comparables.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

I'm not a Pens fan and I generally don't feel bad for other teams anyway, but there's something sad about the way this team is going out with him there and seemingly not having a clue what path to take, which is par for course.

It’s seemed like a near certainty for a while now that these Caps and Pens teams would go out with a whimper and not a bang. Have you paid attention to the direction of the team for the last few years pre-Dubas? Hard to argue that he’s the reason they struggled last year.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

his biggest mistake, writing the book

He didn’t write a book, but I can forgive you for thinking that based on the misleading clickbait headline used by THN and parroted by OP.

 

[Beukeboom Fan]

It's like 90% of those fans never even saw Tavares play and thought they were getting this elite superstar because of name recognition.

Anyone who watched his time with the Islanders saw what type of player he was, especially at that point in time.

The smugness over the signing was just the icing on the cake.

Wasn't the signing 2 years after almost winning the scoring title?

 

[elmaco]

It's not just the dollar value, or the term - everything about that contract favoured Matthews. It's outrageous how one-sided the negotiation appears to have been (especially since Matthews was an RFA at the time).

Underneath the spoiler tag (because it's a long tangent), here's a summary of how badly that contract was handled:

Spoiler: lengthy tangent

I think Matthews' agent took Dubas for a ride when his previous contract was signed in 2019. Forget about the dollar value and term - everything about how the contract was negotiated favours Matthews.

From a tax standpoint, it allowed him to structure his affairs in such a way that he'll save millions of dollars in income tax over the course of his career (by potentially enabling him to pay tax on the majority of his income at Arizona rates, which is more than 10% lower than Ontario's top rate).

From a finance standpoint, the contract was frontloaded. Matthews collected 53% of his earnings in the first 13 months of a five year contract. That's stunning. It means Matthews received and could start investing his earnings sooner. Over the course of his career, the impact on his net worth would be substantial.

From a leverage standpoint, Matthews was given a NMC (granted, only for the final year). This is the least of the concerns.

I don't fault Matthews for this. In fact, I've commended him for getting good advice. But you'd think that by offering these huge advantages to Matthews, Dubas would have been able to negotiate a lower AAV.

If I were in Dubas's place, negotiating with Matthews, I would have said something like - "Auston, we think you're one of the best players in the league, and we want you in Toronto long-term. I've spoke to the Board, and we're going to front load your contact, so you'll be getting more than half your money in just over one-fifth of the term. And we'll play ball with you, so that your advisors can put an extra million dollars in your pocket annually, by ensuring you're an Arizona resident for tax purposes. Plus, we'll give you the NMC that you requested. And we'll agree to only a five year term, even though we would have wanted longer.

But we're not willing to make you the 3rd highest player in the league next year. First, I'm already offering you these two substantial advantages that will save you millions of dollars. That has to be taken into account when we determine your salary. Second, you're asking for more money than Crosby, Ovechkin, Malkin, Kane, MacKinnion, Kucherov, etc - but you've never placed in the 20 (let alone the top 10) in scoring. We can't pay for potential, we need results. Third, you're averaging 44 points per 82 games in the playoff. Granted, small sample size, but this city hasn't won a playoff series in almost two decades, and we need to see results in the spring. Fourth, you're an RFA, so you don't have a ton of leverage here if I don't play ball with this."

Instead, Dubas gave Matthews a huge salary, structured the contract in a way that adds millions of dollars of value on top of that, and ignored the leverage he had given Matthews' RFA status. In turn, this raised the salary expectations for Marner and Nylander. Having so much money tied up in three or four forwards (Tavares) hasn't proven to be a winning strategy (for any team) during the salary cap era. I think the Tavares contract was the first step, but Matthews' 2019 contract, in many ways, was even worse. (Matthews' new contract suffers from many of these flaws from the Leafs' perspective - but it would be hard for a new GM to try to negotiate back from what Dubas already agreed to, especially since they no longer have leverage given his impending UFA status).

Best post of the thread.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

The mistake wasn't signing Tavares, it was not managing the cap effectively.

He made a ton of mistakes, that is why is a bad GM.

 

[behemolari]

He didn’t write a book, but I can forgive you for thinking that based on the misleading clickbait headline used by THN and parroted by OP.

his biggest mistake, not writing his own book

 

[nuck]

Apparently, the "hey, it's a free asset, so why not?" approach applies.

With only two of the big 3 and no Kadri, the same deal doesn't look nearly so bad. An overpay doesn't matter until you need the money for something else but they sought to improve at a position of strength, probably based on an NHL 2018 mindset where you carpet-bomb the opposition with offence. Then the mysterious crash of JT under Keefe.

The assumption was that JT was going to thrive with 45g 100pt years and even the imbalanced roster might not have prevented more success. But he was never looking like that guy after year 1. No club in the cap era has succeeded with this lineup construction and the idea that the defense was adequate to support all dangle hockey was pretty naive. Mistakes, happen, and you move on, except when you insist on trying to vindicate your poor decision year after year. Lets move on now boys!