Value of: Draft picks are often overvalued.

[WarriorofTime]

I'm a Hawks fan. When the Hawks were good - the following contributed significantly while being drafted in 2nd round:
Duncan Keith
Corey Crawford
Dave Bolland
Bryan Bickell

After the 2nd round:
Niklas Hjalmarsson (4th)
Troy Brouwer (7th)
Dustin Byfuglien (8th)
Marcus Kruger (5th)
James Wisniewski (5th) (gone before the Cup wins)

That is essentially almost half the roster that was drafted and developed into guys who made KEY contributions to Cup wins. That success deep in the draft was just as (or more) important to the Hawks as drafting Toews & Kane IMO.

Saad and Shaw - 2nd and 5th round picks in 2011 as well. Hawks made a number of excess picks in 2011 as part of a soft retool when they got cap hell'd after 2010.

The trade chart involving Saad's pick tree is especially interesting.

July 3, 2008: Montreal trades Mikhail Grabovski to Toronto in exchange for Greg Patern and Toronto's 2010 2nd round pick
July 27, 2009: Toronto trades Anton Stralman, Colin Stuart, and Toronto's 2012 7th round round pick for Wayne Primeau and Calgary's 2011 2nd round pick
September 12, 2008: Chicago trades Robert Lang to Montreal in exchange for Toronto's 2010 2nd round pick
September 5, 2009: Toronto trades Calgary's 2011 2nd round pick to Chicago in exchange for Toronto's 2010 2nd round pick
September 18, 2009: Boston trades Phil Kessel to Toronto in exchange for Toronto's 2010 1st round pick, Toronto's 2011 1st round pick and Toronto's 2010 2nd round pick.
June 26, 2010: Boston selects Jared Knight with Toronto's 2010 2nd round pick
June 25, 2011: Chicago selects Brandon Saad with Calgary's 2011 2nd round pick

Hawks later traded Saad to Columbus, and then later traded Panarin to get Saad back.

 

[Raistlin]

the most meaningful stat which I have seen recently,
re the topic of contenders trading 1st's, is this:
in last 20+ years, only 2 teams who traded 1sts' for rentals won the Cup
and one of those was 'Canes, way back in '06

those are the trades that seem riskiest, even dumbest, to me,
(and my team has been guilty of this)

thats a curious stat I'm interested to know, is there a link to the trades?

off the top of my head, looking at the more signficant trades that contributed to cup winning teams, Lehkonen was traded for Barron & a 2nd, Manson too. Barbashev for Zach Dean (what happened there?)

Goodrow and Coleman were both traded for 1sts in 2021? that contributed to their run

 

[Figgy44]

Ok, then I want more draft picks when we trade Hanifin and Tanev.

I would say the opposite. In the cap era, a productive and impactful player still on their ELC is worth it's weight in gold.

How Much is 200 Pounds of Gold Worth?

Assuming 200 pounds... They're worth around 4.8 million. I think that's actually accurate for an impactful and productive ELC.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

thats a curious stat I'm interested to know, is there a link to the trades?

off the top of my head, looking at the more signficant trades that contributed to cup winning teams, Lehkonen was traded for Barron & a 2nd, Manson too. Barbashev for Zach Dean (what happened there?)

Goodrow and Coleman were both traded for 1sts in 2021? that contributed to their run

Year	Cup Winner	Notable Mid-season/Deadline Moves
05-06	Carolina	Recchi, Weight
06-07	Anaheim	May
07-08	Detroit	Stuart
08-09	Pittsburgh	Kunitz, Guerin
09-10	Chicago	Johnsson (Didn't play in the playoffs)
10-11	Boston	Kaberle, Kelly, Peverley
11-12	L.A.	Carter
12-13	Chicago	Handzus
13-14	L.A.	Gaborik
14-15	Chicago	Vermette, Desjardins
15-16	Pittsburgh	Daley, Hagelin, Schultz, Lovejoy
16-17	Pittsburgh	Hainsey
17-18	Washington	Kempny
18-19	St. Louis	-
19-20	Tampa	Bogosion, Goodrow, Coleman
20-21	Tampa	Savard
21-22	Colorado	Manson, Lehkonen
22-23	Vegas	Barbeshev, Blueger, Quick

Bold denotes 1st for a rental.
Italics denotes hockey trades (player for player).

 

[Double Dion]

So much of draft pick value is tied up in the draft class. For instance, last season I would have move Tanev for a 2nd by itself. The depth and talent of the draft was really good. This year I want at minimum a 2nd and a 3rd. Ideally a 1st.

 

[SantosHalper]

 

[57special]

I wonder if the numbers are skewed by expectations in the article linked by the OP. For instance, would a player like Zadina, Cam Barker, or Yakupov, get all those chances to play NHL games if they had been picked in the 3rd round rather than high up in the 1st?