Value of: Draft picks are often overvalued.

[Nevins]

Draft picks are often overvalued.What is the true value of draft picks based on their rank?
https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

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[Xirik]

Wrong forum bub

 

[deca guard]

interesting info

 

[Nevins]

Wrong forum bub

With the trade deadline approaching, it seems to me that it's in the right place.

 

[JoeSakic13]

Found Kent Hughes’ burner account.

 

[deca guard]

With the trade deadline approaching, it seems to me that it's in the right place.

just what i was thinking too

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Fans want to win both on the ice and off it. It doesn't matter that a late 1st round pick likely won't develop into something meaningful; the biggest deadline overpay (Gaustad) resulted in the pick that was traded up to select Girgensons. For fanbases that are watching losing hockey, an off ice W is a season highlight.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Yeah, but they're still fun to have. Like pull-tabs. Not a high probability of winning, but when you do, it's a lot of fun.

 

[Some Other Flame]

I would say the opposite. In the cap era, a productive and impactful player still on their ELC is worth it's weight in gold.

 

[pth2]

Found Kent Hughes’ burner account.

The man has made 20 selections over 2 drafts (including 3 first rounders), and has extra picks in 1st round for 2 years and extra 2nd next year.... He clearly doesn't dislike drafting players.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Found Kent Hughes’ burner account.

what do you mean? Hes acquired 4 oh so valuable first round picks for Toffoli, Chariot and now Monahan since he's started.

 

[Daz28]

GM's usually prefer draft picks over prospects, and they're definitely better than free agency, so they are actually undervalued as overall assets. If you're just saying that later round picks are overvalued, then you'd be correct, but the thread title would be very deceiving if that were the case.

I would say the opposite. In the cap era, a productive and impactful player still on their ELC is worth it's weight in gold.

Not to mention it's a player of your choice, that your scouts did a lot of work on. Much better than picking from a small, select group of prospects that the other GM may have soured on.

 

[Nevins]

Yeah, but they're still fun to have. Like pull-tabs. Not a high probability of winning, but when you do, it's a lot of fun.

Agreed

 

[Suntouchable13]

Draft picks are just like currency. To a team trying to win the Stanley Cup, a very late 1st round pick is not that useful. So if they can trade it for someone that can help them now, they would. When MTL got that 1st round pick from the Jets for Monahan, it’s just another bullet in the chamber. They can use it as currency and flip it in a deal for some other player(s). or they can hold it and make a selection. If they use it to select a player, he will just be another prospect cooking for them down in their farm. Maybe will turn out something, maybe will be nothing. While the Jets got themselves a player that hopefully for them can help them make a deep run this year. Both teams got what they were looking for.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

While I think people here definitely overvalue the "mystery box", the value of higher picks nowadays is still fairly high not so much because you expect to draft a superstar but simply getting a decent player on an entry level deal is huge.

 

[God]

I would say the opposite. In the cap era, a productive and impactful player still on their ELC is worth it's weight in gold.

This is basically a <1% scenario, though. It's obviously true for the top ~15 picks in the first round but those picks aren't usually traded/held by contenders, and by the age (~23) that most players are contributing they are on their second contract already.

The last time I remember it making a difference is probably Guentzel with the Penguins.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

The 1st round needs to be split into its own pie. (Of course, there are also lookup tables that go pick-by-pick for this... but the point being there is a huge difference between top-10 and top-5 picks in the 1st round vs. later 1sts in terms of quality).

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

Lumping the 1st overall pick into the same category as the 32nd overall pick essentially makes this data meaningless, I would say.

 

[Chainshot]

The 1st round needs to be split into its own pie. (Of course, there are also lookup tables that go pick-by-pick for this... but the point being there is a huge difference between top-10 and top-5 picks in the 1st round vs. later 1sts in terms of quality).

While that's also valuable - the number of top 10 picks moved once draft order is known is pretty slim over the last 10 years. And when they have been moved, it's almost always prior to a season playing out. Teams that are looking like top 10 selectors are really unlikely to be putting those into a trade. It's just not how the deadline operates.

 

[Hockeylife2018]

99% of current players were once draft picks

Therefore draft picks are underrated

 

[ElPrimeTime]

I would like to see a team go full NBA mode and trade 7 2nd round picks for a player.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Why would I want your crappy prospect when I can pick my own?

 

[Rec T]

Ya think?

Outside of the top ten picks in an average year (fifteen on a really good year), the chances of any particular player becoming a really good, not even a star, player aren't that great let alone those in the later rounds. Are there some gems that are picked really late? Sure, but they're the exception that gets talked about all the time. If later round picks became serviceable players on a regular basis then it wouldn't be anything special.

It cracks me up reading posters here who get really excited to get mid to late second round picks in exchange for one of their team's generic players (someone who's relatively easy to replace with another serviceable NHL player). Sure you 'might' get a good player ... but even with teams who have a great scouting dept ... you probably aren't.

But much like buying a lottery ticket, until the actual drawing (or the player getting a chance to play in the NHL) ... it sure is fun to dream.

 

[Lolonegoal]

Yeah, but they're still fun to have. Like pull-tabs. Not a high probability of winning, but when you do, it's a lot of fun.

Yes, the goal of a GM: to have lots of fun

 

[DiglettDangles]

This is basically a <1% scenario, though. It's obviously true for the top ~15 picks in the first round but those picks aren't usually traded/held by contenders, and by the age (~23) that most players are contributing they are on their second contract already.

The last time I remember it making a difference is probably Guentzel with the Penguins.

Well in Montreal's cup run in '21, Kotkaniemi, Suzuki and Caufield all played a big role.
Robert Thomas in St. Louis too.