Value of: Draft Pick Value Trading Up and Down

[EbonyRaptor]

How much does cap space and the willingness to take cap dumps along with #19 and 4 picks in the 2nd round (35/44/51/55) get you in moving up in the 1st round?

 

[Guttersniped]

I found a website where someone applied a value to draft picks. I imported that into excel and did a VLOOKUP based on what you provided. This import was shitty so I don't doubt some of the numbers are incorrect but you still may find this amusing.

Their average value apart based on these values for the above trades was 10.88. The "fairest" with a margin of 0.05 was pick 84 for 89 and 168. The least advantageous was what NYR gave up in 2018 for pick 22. If some of these are indeed involving picks a year or more in the future in some cases, a multiplier would have to be assigned to those to diminish their value.

NHL teams have had their own pick value charts for years, they copied it from the NFL.

That article links to Dom’s 2020 article where he gives some background about this and has a chart he made.

By the numbers: Revisiting the true value of a draft pick

The NHL Draft isn’t nearly as random as the NFL’s, but there are inefficiencies that can be exposed and an opportunity to glean value.

theathletic.com

Both article discuss a well known 2011 article by Michael Schuckers which was an early example of a public model.

This was his 2016 update of his chart.



And here’s another random one:

 

[BHFAN92]

How much does cap space and the willingness to take cap dumps along with #19 and 4 picks in the 2nd round (35/44/51/55) get you in moving up in the 1st round?

I am thinking something like #19,#51,#55 (Trade value calc worth=7.1) to Capitals for #8 (Trade value calc worth=6.7) and Kuznetsov salary cap dump which frees up Washington for 7.8mil over next 2 seasons. Blackhawks move back up into top 10 and get useful player in Kuznestsov who also helps them hit cap floor and Capital get huge salary cap relief and 3 more picks in draft in which they only currently have 5 picks.

 

[StewieP19]

I will not be surprise if Columbus trade their No 3 overall pick.
GM and owner clearly said next year they want to make playoffs
They need a no 1 center
My guess Washington trade No 8 overall and Kuznetsov
For the No 3 overall and 5th round pick boston pick

 

[EbonyRaptor]

I am thinking something like #19,#51,#55 (Trade value calc worth=7.1) to Capitals for #8 (Trade value calc worth=6.7) and Kuznetsov salary cap dump which frees up Washington for 7.8mil over next 2 seasons. Blackhawks move back up into top 10 and get useful player in Kuznestsov who also helps them hit cap floor and Capital get huge salary cap relief and 3 more picks in draft in which they only currently have 5 picks.

That's a tough one from the WAS perspective because most likely they're trying to get as many kicks at the can as possible until Ovie hang them up. I think maybe offloading Mantha would be more in line with that than losing Kuznetsov's productivity.

Either way I would be be all over this trade from a Hawks perspective. It would probably need to be contingent on a player that WAS is targeting being gone by their pick.

Edit: thinking about this more - the Hawks would include Tyler Johnson at 50% retained. He scored a little more than Mantha and the cap relief would be $3.2M for 2023/24 when both Mantha and Johnson contracts expire.

 

[Castle8130]

That's a tough one from the WAS perspective because most likely they're trying to get as many kicks at the can as possible until Ovie hang them up. I think maybe offloading Mantha would be more in line with that than losing Kuznetsov's productivity.

Either way I would be be all over this trade from a Hawks perspective. It would probably need to be contingent on a player that WAS is targeting being gone by their pick.

The Hawks and the Wings are the most likely suitors for trading up. When looking at trading up or down, you want to look at teams who have a surplus of picks in the 2-4 rounds and teams who don't have many picks in those rounds, if none at all. Also teams with salary cap issues that want to compete.

Teams that are favorites for moving up (in order of likelihood):

Hawks
Wings
Ducks
Kraken
Predators

Teams favorite for moving down (in order):

Leafs
Aves
Rangers
Knights
----------- Other candidates
Flames
Canucks
Penguins
Jets

 

[StephenPeat]

That's a tough one from the WAS perspective because most likely they're trying to get as many kicks at the can as possible until Ovie hang them up. I think maybe offloading Mantha would be more in line with that than losing Kuznetsov's productivity.

Either way I would be be all over this trade from a Hawks perspective. It would probably need to be contingent on a player that WAS is targeting being gone by their pick.

Edit: thinking about this more - the Hawks would include Tyler Johnson at 50% retained. He scored a little more than Mantha and the cap relief would be $3.2M for 2023/24 when both Mantha and Johnson contracts expire.

This is not tough at all for Washington. Pick Value charts DO NOT WORK for Top 10 Picks because they are almost never traded and there is no precedent for the pick value calculator to use in its algorithm. Since the implementation of the Salary Cap Top 10 Picks have been traded less than 10 times. The suggested trade has Washington trading Kuznetsov (who is still a very serviceable 2C, not the Cap Dump that is being implied) and a Top 10 Pick for a mid-/late-1st and Picks in the 50s. That’s f***ing horrible for Washington.

Exchanging Mantha for Kuznetsov is no better there is no calculation that goes 8OA —> 19 / 51 / 55 that Washington is going to do. There is nothing that makes it worthwhile for any team to forgo a Top 10 Draft Pick under Team-Control for ~7 years for Salary Cap savings for 1 or 2 seasons. This exercise is futile and foolish.

 

[StephenPeat]

I am thinking something like #19,#51,#55 (Trade value calc worth=7.1) to Capitals for #8 (Trade value calc worth=6.7) and Kuznetsov salary cap dump which frees up Washington for 7.8mil over next 2 seasons. Blackhawks move back up into top 10 and get useful player in Kuznestsov who also helps them hit cap floor and Capital get huge salary cap relief and 3 more picks in draft in which they only currently have 5 picks.

This is horrible for Washington, as I explained above.

 

[vipera1960]

This is horrible for Washington, as I explained above.

I think it’s funny that he admitted it totally favors the Hawks and then edited to dump Johnson.

 

[Bobby Orrtuzzo]

Wings absolutely want to move up.

#17 + #42 for as high as it'll go.

#43 + #44 for as high as it'll go.

With how much Armstrong and Yzerman love dealing with each other, I wouldn’t be all that shocked if Doug would have interest in something around 43 +44 for Dallas’ pick wherever it lands (29-32)