HF Habs: Draft Lottery tonight!! 7 p.m. ET. (MTL with #16 and #17!!)

[Boss Man Hughes]

I said what I said. Koivu is undersized and has minimal offensive upside. Sawyer will probably be an ahler at best, I'm gonna be completely honest, I have not watched a single game from Protz so I refuse to make a judgement call there.

Thorpe is the only one I can see carving himself a legit NHL spot on a 4th line.

And if one player makes it that is a win. They traded their 2nd. Anything after that is a bonus if they make the NHL.

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

And if one player makes it that is a win. They traded their 2nd. Anything after that is a bonus if they make the NHL.

I'm just basing it off of HuGos previous 2 drafts before that. In 2023, they were able to get Fowler in the 3rd round and Xhekaj in the 4th round. And same scenario, no 2nd rounders that year either. In 2022, they got Engstrom in the 3rd and Davidson in the 5th. Besides that amazing 1st round, and when comparing it to their first two drafts, 2024 looks lackluster

 

[Jabba11]

Utah getting no.4 made this draft really interesting. Let's just say the Hawks go with Mortone or Frondel.

I expect their asking price would start with both the no.16 and 17 picks. Then they probably ask for someone like Mailloux. Add in another piece and maybe they pull the trigger. But those trades are complicated

If you were a team in the top 5-6. Would you trade down to 16-17 + Mailloux? I have a hard time thinking you would.

Asking price will be Reinbacher

 

[HuGo Burner Acc]

If you were a team in the top 5-6. Would you trade down to 16-17 + Mailloux? I have a hard time thinking you would.

Asking price will be Reinbacher

Depends on the team. Some teams need as much quantity as possible as they have no good prospects in the system. So between a high pick and the chance at getting 3-4 1st round calibre prospects in the system, they might take the latter. If you're a team committed to a rebuildz you might want the top talent. But if you're trying to quickly stock your pipeline, the quantity of good prospects is a better option.

So it depends on the team

 

[Jack Spider]

If you were a team in the top 5-6. Would you trade down to 16-17 + Mailloux? I have a hard time thinking you would.

Asking price will be Reinbacher

Probably not. We'd be looking at a 3 team trade.

 

[Jabba11]

I think we have to forget about Desnoyers. I don't see him passing the Flyers at 6th.

If anything, 16+17 could get us late top 10 for a guy like Brady Martin or Roger McQueen (who I think would be a risky pick). Or move up for Jackson Smith?

 

[Skip Bayless]

I think we have to forget about Desnoyers. I don't see him passing the Flyers at 6th.

If anything, 16+17 could get us late top 10 for a guy like Brady Martin or Roger McQueen (who I think would be a risky pick). Or move up for Jackson Smith?

I don't feel like the difference between #16-17 and #10 warrants trading those two picks.

 

[Jabba11]

I don't feel like the difference between #16-17 and #10 warrants trading those two picks.

I agree! Not in this year's draft. I would have done it for a player like Zeev Buium last year or Matt Boldy for example.

 

[Kennerback]

If we get the two best guys on the board after 15, history has shown that one of the two will be a good pick. If we have only one (either 16 or 17) we might miss.

 

[Jabba11]

I wrote this to my friends. Not looking good at all. Missed a few picks probably.

Canadiens de Montreal:

Guhle 16e
Caufield 15e
Nathan Beaulieu 17e
Louis Leblanc 18e
Kyle Chipchura 18e
Chris Higgins 14e
Eric Chouinard 16e
Matt Higgins 18e
Brad Brown 18e
Brent Bilodeau 17e
Andrew Cassels 17e
Mark Pederson 15e
Alfie Turcotte 17e (pere a Alex)
etc

 

[Beaker]

I wrote this to my friends. Not looking good at all. Missed a few picks probably.

Canadiens de Montreal:

Guhle 16e
Caufield 15e
Nathan Beaulieu 17e
Louis Leblanc 18e
Kyle Chipchura 18e
Chris Higgins 14e
Eric Chouinard 16e
Matt Higgins 18e
Brad Brown 18e
Brent Bilodeau 17e
Andrew Cassels 17e
Mark Pederson 15e
Alfie Turcotte 17e (pere a Alex)
etc

Or, you could argue that recent history has been positive… I’ll take another Caufield & Guhle (or Hage). We’ll draft a talented player at 16-17 I’m sure.

 

[Jabba11]

Or, you could argue that recent history has been positive… I’ll take another Caufield & Guhle (or Hage). We’ll draft a talented player at 16-17 I’m sure.

Hage is unproven. If you land Carbonneau, he's talented for sure. But, how is he going to translate in the big league: a top 6 player or just a bottom 6 player?

Beaulieu was talented. Yet, didn't pan out.

 

[Runner77]

Hage is unproven. If you land Carbonneau, he's talented for sure. But, how is he going to translate in the big league: a top 6 player or just a bottom 6 player?

Beaulieu was talented. Yet, didn't pan out.

Beaulieu would have never made it through the psych profile tests and methods the Habs use in their evaluative process now. The guy had main character syndrome, was full of himself and showed up at his first camp with “N8 the Gr8” printed on his sticks. It didn’t take long for veterans on the team to put him in his place. He was regarded as a risky pick at the time but they went for him anyway on account of his raw tools.

Of course, they can pick the wrong guy again cause it’s not an exact science but typically, the farther away you get from early picks, the more risk is being taken on.

 

[Sorinth]

I wrote this to my friends. Not looking good at all. Missed a few picks probably.

Canadiens de Montreal:

Guhle 16e
Caufield 15e
Nathan Beaulieu 17e
Louis Leblanc 18e
Kyle Chipchura 18e
Chris Higgins 14e
Eric Chouinard 16e
Matt Higgins 18e
Brad Brown 18e
Brent Bilodeau 17e
Andrew Cassels 17e
Mark Pederson 15e
Alfie Turcotte 17e (pere a Alex)
etc

So the two guys who developed under our current management have both turned out great and most of the ones under previous managements failed.

I'm not sure I see the concern. Nor do I see the relevance of looking only at Habs picks in that range unless strictly looking at the picks made with at least some of our current scouts. And that would point Guhle/Caufield only. The NHL average over the last 10 years is just naturally going to be much more informative then Habs picks from the 80s.

Without looking it up I would imagine the odds of getting a good player at either pick is about 40%, which means about 64% of getting one with two picks.

 

[Sorinth]

Beaulieu would have never made it through the psych profile tests and methods the Habs use in their evaluative process now. The guy had main character syndrome, was full of himself and showed up at his first camp with “N8 the Gr8” printed on his sticks. It didn’t take long for veterans on the team to put him in his place. He was regarded as a risky pick at the time but they went for him anyway on account of his raw tools.

Of course, they can pick the wrong guy again cause it’s not an exact science but typically, the farther away you get from early picks, the more risk is being taken on.

Beaulieu would've been the guy cutting the line at the ATM

 

[Redux91]

Hage is unproven. If you land Carbonneau, he's talented for sure. But, how is he going to translate in the big league: a top 6 player or just a bottom 6 player?

Beaulieu was talented. Yet, didn't pan out.

So if I have this right..

You think having the 16th and 17th picks in the 1st round of a draft is a BAD thing...?

Because of what *other* regimes picked previously and failed to properly develop..?

Ok.

If people truly think 1st round picks after the top10 are useless then I mean what are we doing here exactly? Like really

Suzuki went 13th
Caufield went 15th
Guhle 16th

...

 

[Jabba11]

I'm saying that at pick 16 and 17, like another poster said, you might hit 1 good player between those two.

My point is that after the top 10-12, it's very hard to see a prospect fully pan out to be an impact player.

Michael Hage has a lot to do before becoming an impactful or good contributor in this league.

We could be hitting homeruns like a McAvoy, Karlsson, Connor or Barzal. Or we could be like the Bruins and get Zenyshyn and Zboril.

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