Draft Comparison/Present Results-

[stickty111]

I thought it would be interesting to compare Dubas’s drafts from Hunter’s drafts and evaluate how each did. This isn’t meant to be in support of any of the two. Just to look at the results. Remember what they are now can always change in the future. These are just for right now. I will grade each pick on a 1-6 scale. I will be excluding the 2015 draft as that was more a combo effort. Obvious picks like Matthews will also be ignored. I will go by order of picks in each year. The 2022 won't be included as it's too early to make any evaluations on that draft.
Here is how the picks will be graded. I will not look at upside to keep it simple.
6-NHL Player
5-Likely NHL Player
4-Tracking well
3-Jury is out
2-Not looking good
1-Bust

Lou/Hunter
2016:
1. Korshkov (1)
2. Grundstorm (6)
3. Woll (6)
4. Greenway(1)
5. Brooks(5)
6. Middleton (1)
7. Bobylev (1)
8. Walker (1)
9. Mattinen (1)
10. Chebykin (1)

Numbers
NHL Players 2/10
Likely NHL Players 1/8
Still progressing: 0/7
Questions: 0/7
Not tracking well 0/7
Busts 7
Analysis
Grundstrom is a nice find by Hunter who at the worst is a good all round middle 6 player. He was traded in the Muzzin deal. Brooks was an NHL player or at least looking like one, but with him not playing an NHL game this season, I am dropping him to a 5. I still have him as likely because almost 50 NHL games is something. He was lost on waivers. Korshkov has been just there. He hasn’t shown NHL potential but has been a good player in the KHL, but nothing amazing. This season his production declined and there are no signs he is pushing for a spot on the Panthers, so is a bust at this point. He was traded in the Gally deal. Woll had 2 forgettable years in the AHL and was headed towards bust territory, but few NHL games later and he might become something. He has looked good in the AHL this year, and with the 3 year extension, he's clearly valued and looks like he is progressing. This season he was terrific in the AHL, and in the limited games in the NHL plus playoffs. He's ready to be a backup. 2 NHLers but 7 busts so not a good draft.

2017:
1. Liljegren (6)
2. Rasanen (1)
3. Scott (retired)
4. Kara (1)
5. Gordeev (1)
6. McGregor (1)
7. O’Connell (1)
Numbers
NHL Players 1/6
Likely NHL Player 0/5
Still Progressing 0/5
Questions: 0/5
Not looking good 0/5
Busts: 5
Analysis
Aside from Lilly who is looking like a top 4 d man, this draft is a mess. Scott I am removing from here all together because it's not fair to him. He just retired because of injuries. McGregor had a decent AHL rookie season in Tucson but wasn't effective since. We didn’t sign him. One NHL player out of 7 picks is not good.

Dubas
2018:
1. Sandin (6)
2. Durzi (6)
3. SDA (3)
4. Stotts(1)
5. Hollowell(3)
6. Kral(4)
7. Holmberg(6)
8. Bouthillier(1)
9. Kizimov(1)
Numbers
NHL Players 3/9
Likely NHL Player: 0/6
Still progressing: 1/6
Questions: 2/5
Not tracking well 0/3
Busts: 3
Analysis
Sandin is an NHL d man and much like Liljegren is emerging as a top 4 d man. Kral is progressing and already got a cup of coffee with the Leafs. He's right on the cusp if he can get back in the groove after hiss injury. He was terrific in the pre season and had a solid rookie season. Holmberg has surprisingly this early become an everyday NHLer. He continues to impress. In my last update, I labeled Hollowell a bust. Few NHL games later and he's now risen to a question mark. I don't put 4 because he wasn't progressing niy he's certainly back on the radar. Durzi had a nice year for the Kings in his rookie season and continued this year and looks to be a staple on their D core for the future. SDA is the most fascinating prospect here. Typically his kind of prospect doesn’t make it far, and even after a decent but unspectacular rookie season, major questions still stood, but this season SDA has risen his value. He's been arguably the Marlies most consistent forward, and made his NHL debut too. SDA was most certainly coming on. but now has signed in the KHL so he's a 3 again. Other 3 are failed picks. This was a solid draft. 3 NHLers out of 9, with 2 potential top 4 d man is good. The 1 pick still progressing was also trending towards the NHL too before signing in the KHL, but he shouldn't be ruled out completely because of that.

2019:
1. Robertson (5)
2. Kokkonen (2)
3. Abramov (2)
4. Abruzzese (4)
5. Koster (4)
6. Loponen (1)
Numbers:
NHL Players 0/6
Likely: 1/6
Still Progressing: 2/5
Questions: 0/3
Not Tracking well: 2/3
Busts: 1
Analysis
Robertson is struggling to find his way in the NHL and keeps getting set back with injuries. He's shown enough though where he should find an NHL role so still a 5. Kokkonen has shown signs and then stagnated in parts since being drafted. He struggled early this season. He got better but didn't get a full time role. . Koster really raised his stock in College after an underwhelming D+1. College analysts and commentators couldn’t stop praising him this year. His IQ and much improved skating were a stand out. Despite being behind a stacked D core in Minnesota, he has improved every season and looks to be getting more ice time this year. Abruzzese much like Ian Scott has been hampered by injuries which has stopped good developmental progress. He was fantastic in Harvard and made his NHL debut where he looked like he needed AHL time. This year he's had decent production in his AHL rookie season. Abramov's production has somewhat improved but has had trouble sticking in the lineup with the Marlies before being traded. Loponen is a failure at this point. This should be a fine draft when everything is settled.

2020:
1. Hirvonen (4)
2. Niemela (4)
3. Akhtyamov (3)
4. Villeneuve (3)
5. Ovchinnikov (3)
6. Miettinen (2)
7. Rindell (1)
8. Miller (3)
9. Fusco (1)
10. Schingoethe (1)
11. Tverberg (4)
Numbers:
NHL Players 0/11
Likely: 0/11
Still Progressing: 3/11
Questions: 4/8
Not Tracking well: 1/4
Busts: 3
Analysis
Amirov is dealing with serious health issues so I will leave him out here. The best pick right now is Niemela in this draft. After an amazing 2021/2022 season where he was among the best d men in Liga. his production slowed down this year, but his limited games with the Marlies showed it was because of team related circumstances, and he was tremendous for the Marlies down the stretch. He's looking like a great pick. Hirvonen continues to improve with every season. Tverberg has been a fast riser in the system, and is looking like a great 7th rounder. There are others who still have potential, but have questions marks. Overall should be a solid draft if things continue as is.

2021:
1. Knies (6)
2. Voit (4)
3. Peksa (3)
Numbers:
NHL Players 1/3
Likely: 0/2
Still Progressing: 1/2
Questions: 1/1
Not Tracking well: 0
Busts: 0
Analysis:
Only 3 picks in this draft, but Dubas might have gotten a huge steal in Knies in the 2nd round. His combination of power, strength and skill is a huge add for the Leafs, A power forward prospect they needed. Voit is pretty much the opposite, but he's also looking like a nice prospect. After dominating the OHL, he'll make his pro debut next season and we'll have a better idea about him. Peksa has been good in lower levels of Russia, but didn't get a chance in the KHL. Leafs signed him to an ELC so they clearly like him. We'll see their plan for him next season.


Totals

Lou/Hunter
NHL Players 3/16=19%
Likely NHL Players 1/13=8%
Progressing 0/12=0%
Questions 0/12=0%
Not tracking well 0/12=0%
Busts 12/16=75%

Dubas
NHL Players 4/29=14%
Likely NHL Players 1/25=4%
Still Progressing: 7/24=29%
Questions: 7/17=41%
Not tracking well 3/10=30%
Busts: 7/29=24%

Conclusion:
The previous management group has landed 1 less NHLer so far, and only 1 is still progressing. There is a good chance they aren’t getting another NHLer all aside from potentially Brooks. Dubas has hit on his 1st 2 picks he drafted in Sandin and Durzi, and on another one in Holmberg. Also 33% of his picks are either progressing well or close to becoming NHL players. His bust rate is pretty low as well.
Keep in mind though, these are not final. The busts I have listed could look legit again. These are just for the present.

Click to read more...

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

I think it is a little early to call Loponen a bust. I'd put him at a 2. I know in junior and when he was drafted he was considered a very offensive minded defenseman. The offense hasn't been there since he's gone pro, maybe his defence has improved though? Idk if someone has insight on that.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think it is a little early to call Loponen a bust. I'd put him at a 2. I know in junior and when he was drafted he was considered a very offensive minded defenseman. The offense hasn't been there since he's gone pro, maybe his defence has improved though? Idk if someone has insight on that.

Nah he is pretty much done. Not the worst pick in the 7th round, because you can do much worse than a guy who was a full time Mestis player at 17, but it just never amounted to anything beyond that.

I'd put him at a 2 though. While slim, there is a chance he does miraculously figure it out next year before his rights expire, and he is a full time Liiga player right now (even though he sucks).

 

[seanlinden]

These types of comparisons are really, really hard to actually take "value" out of... simply because once you get out of the 10-20 picks, you need 5 years before you can objectively say what a pick has turned into.

Look at your own analysis, of the 2016 draft's 10 players, only 2 received ratings 3 or 4, whereas the remaining 8 are pretty much defined.

It's simply too early to tell whether that 2018 draft is going to yield a full time player other Sandin. Even go to 2019 with Robertson, he's had quite a few bumps along the way here.

 

[WTFMAN99]

These types of comparisons are really, really hard to actually take "value" out of... simply because once you get out of the 10-20 picks, you need 5 years before you can objectively say what a pick has turned into.

Look at your own analysis, of the 2016 draft's 10 players, only 2 received ratings 3 or 4, whereas the remaining 8 are pretty much defined.

It's simply too early to tell whether that 2018 draft is going to yield a full time player other Sandin. Even go to 2019 with Robertson, he's had quite a few bumps along the way here.

Robertson in particular is going to be really interesting to see. Lost time last year to injury and this was a significant one that has knocked him out again.

 

[seanlinden]

Robertson in particular is going to be really interesting to see. Lost time last year to injury and this was a significant one that has knocked him out again.

Yeah, if you had done this analysis a in the summer of 2020, you could have ranked Robertson an easy 6 after his OHL season and then playing in the columbus series.

A year and a bit later, there's an argument to make for him being a 5 - likely NHL player, but there's also an argument to be made for him being a 3 - Jury out. 4 -Still progressing doesn't really "describe" his situation, but might be the right "number".

 

[Bluelines]

Robertson in particular is going to be really interesting to see. Lost time last year to injury and this was a significant one that has knocked him out again.

Not sure if he will ever be what many Leaf fans expect him to be, a first line sniper. He might become a 3rd line winger and if he does that is better than 99.9% of us will ever achieve but he would be considered a bust by many Leaf fans. For me if he makes this roster in any sort of way, I would consider that a success.

A players success is really subjective based on a fans expectations. If you don't reach this level of performance you are a bust, Marner for example is a 90 point guy but many fans consider him a bust. If Amirov becomes a 90 point guy many of teh same fans who think Marner is a bust will think Amirov is a success. I don't want to turn this into a Marner thread just using him as an example.

To the OP great post, looks like you put a lot of work into it.

 

[Ashdown2]

hunter (and lou) were shit at drafting ........ you dont need to overanalyze it ......

meanwhile dubas has had FAR worse drafting positions and number of picks and has found alot better prospects. Will they all turn into "nhlers" , probably not but at least the system has potential unlike before

 

[makbeer]

I think Lou is a great GM in many ways and I was sad to see him go and thought Kyle got the reigns a little early.

That said, the biggest disappointment for me was the Lou/Hunter drafting. I expected much more with all that supposed pedigree in scouting and evaluation of talent.

 

[Jeypic]

Have to give credit to hunter for drafting marner. A lot of people wanted strome at that pick.

 

[123offtheglass]

Interesting perspective, especially for less elite prospects since some do have considerable upside.

One area Dubas has done really well in is his FA signings; he did deal a lot of picks away but he also managed to sign Alex Steeves.

 

[Stephen]

I don't think you can really evaluate the current regime for many more more years because the development curve on a lot of these players is simply unknown.

Also doesn't make sense to cut off the rating as "NHL player" as a "6" rating or eliminate Auston Matthews or more particularly Mitch Marner from the Lou/Hunter drafts. Matthews was a slam dunk for sure, but if you remember the fog of war surrounding Marner at the time, they definitely threaded the needle there to make the right franchise changing pick.

 

[Prominence]

Have to give credit to hunter for drafting marner. A lot of people wanted strome at that pick.

Which people? The fans? No one wanted strome besides the fans. There is heresay that dubas wanted to trade back and grab rantanen, but strome wasn't even considered.

 

[Apex Predator]

Which people? The fans? No one wanted strome besides the fans. There is heresay that dubas wanted to trade back and grab rantanen, but strome wasn't even considered.

I seem to remember people arguing about strome over Marner. I wonder if someone can pull up an old thread from that draft time I’m sure we had some poll asking who to draft between strome Marner hanafin or other.

 

[Prominence]

I seem to remember people arguing about strome over Marner. I wonder if someone can pull up an old thread from that draft time I’m sure we had some poll asking who to draft between strome Marner hanafin or other.

Yeah but those are fans. Who mark hunter chooses 4th overall is not even correlated with who fans want to draft. Fans don’t have any bearing on who a team drafts.

 

[ACC1224]

My understanding is Hunter was relieved to not have to choose between Marner and Eichel. His choice after Marner was Provorov but would have went Hamifin to make the coach happy.

I’m sure everyone is happy with the way things turned out.

 

[kb]

Have to give credit to hunter for drafting marner. A lot of people wanted strome at that pick.

Yeah......but Strome was already drafted 3rd ahead of Marner. So why would anyone give credit to Hunter for something he had no ability to do?

Bizarre.

 

[Jeypic]

Yeah......but Strome was already drafted 3rd ahead of Marner. So why would anyone give credit to Hunter for something he had no ability to do?

Bizarre.

Oops guess i mixed up who was drafted first. We probably shouldn’t give them too much credit for liljegren either. He fell to them too.

 

[stickty111]

Have to give credit to hunter for drafting marner. A lot of people wanted strome at that pick.

Strome was never in the question though. Babcock was pushing for Hanifin but majority wanted Marner. Hunter should credit for sticking to his player.

 

[seanlinden]

I don't think you can really evaluate the current regime for many more more years because the development curve on a lot of these players is simply unknown.

Also doesn't make sense to cut off the rating as "NHL player" as a "6" rating or eliminate Auston Matthews or more particularly Mitch Marner from the Lou/Hunter drafts. Matthews was a slam dunk for sure, but if you remember the fog of war surrounding Marner at the time, they definitely threaded the needle there to make the right franchise changing pick.

I think if you include Matthews/Marner; it will obviously skew heavily towards Lou/Hunter.

The reality is, Dubas has not had anywhere near the quality of picks going into the draft that Lou/Hunter had. In Dubas' 4 drafts so far, he's had 2 first round picks -- one was 29th overall and one was 15th overall.

Lou/Hunter had 3 drafts IIRC. When you exclude the top 10, they only had 1 first round pick at 17th OA... but had Korshkov at 31, Dermott at 34. Without going into a full analysis, I think you can probably say that by excluding Marner & Matthews, they had roughly the same quality of picks.

 

[ACC1224]

Oops guess i mixed up who was drafted first. We probably shouldn’t give them too much credit for liljegren either. He fell to them too.

Liljegren is looking like a great pick. Kudos to Dubas there.

 

[Stephen]

I think if you include Matthews/Marner; it will obviously skew heavily towards Lou/Hunter.

The reality is, Dubas has not had anywhere near the quality of picks going into the draft that Lou/Hunter had. In Dubas' 4 drafts so far, he's had 2 first round picks -- one was 29th overall and one was 15th overall.

Lou/Hunter had 3 drafts IIRC. When you exclude the top 10, they only had 1 first round pick at 17th OA... but had Korshkov at 31, Dermott at 34. Without going into a full analysis, I think you can probably say that by excluding Marner & Matthews, they had roughly the same quality of picks.

I generally think this draft comparison between Lou/Hunter and Dubas is unproductive, premature and probably put us in the same cross regime back and forth.

How does anybody make a meaningful comparison across eras when one set the foundation of the franchise at the top of the draft with home run picks, a bunch of meh picks and the other is a count your chickens before they hatch exercise.

 

[nuck]

I seem to remember people arguing about strome over Marner. I wonder if someone can pull up an old thread from that draft time I’m sure we had some poll asking who to draft between strome Marner hanafin or other.

I recall those discussions for sure. Before the draft the Leafs had Boz and Kadri fighting to be the #1 center. Remember all the talk about Marner maybe being able to convert to a center, even a year post draft? The club had no Matthews in their sights and had not had a true #1 since Sundin so there was a Stamkos sized hole to be filled. There was speculation for sure, but also a strong feeling that the London connection might bring Marner in, even if they had the choice between Strome and MM. Looking back at mynhldraft.com most lists had Marner just behind Strome but in the end sportswriters are not much more predictive of what clubs will do than fans. Anyways Hunter gets no credit for not drafting a player that was never available

I think the scouting group was relatively unchanged between the two regimes and these are the people that drive the selections outside of the first round so I have a hard time saying Dubas good, Lou bad, especially when 2015 and 2017 drafts are both certified thin for everyone outside of the 1st. When you look at the 2020 Euro-binge KD was not over in Europe doing any of the scouting so do the selections reflect any real prospect knowledge by the GM, or just his level of confidence in his scouting group? Liking 2020 a bit though.

I do have a preference for the Dubas drafts but I need to see at least one of his draftees really show us a win. The club hasn't' had a great draft since maybe 2006.

 

[griffon1]

Brooks a 6?

Nobody seems to think so these days.

Robertson is possibly a 6 if healthy.

Two changes and the analysis flips.

 

[zeke]

Age 19

Nylander AHL 38gms, .47gpg/1.18ppg ---- NHL 22gms, .27gpg/.59ppg
Robertson AHL 21gms, .24gpg/.76ppg ---- NHL 6gms, .00gpg/.17ppg
Kapanen AHL 44gms, .21gpg/.57ppg ------ NHL 9ms, .00gpg/.00ppg
Kadri AHL --------------------------------------------- NHL 1gms, .00gpg/.00ppg
Brown AHL ---

Age 20

Nylander AHL ---
Robertson AHL 2gms, .00gpg/1.00ppg
Kapanen AHL 44gms, .42gpg/1.00ppg ---- NHL 8gms, .13gpg/.13ppg
Kadri AHL 44gms, .39gpg/.93ppg ---------- NHL 29gms, .10gpg/.41ppg
Brown AHL 76gms, .28gpg/.80ppg