Speculation: Draft and UDFA Thread 2018-19: Part IX (No Kakko/Hughes Talk)

[Chytilmania]

We seem to like drafting guys that might not have high overall production but impressed late in the season or at some international tournament. Chytil and Kravtsov both seem to fit this mold. Any guys in this year's draft that we might go for along those lines?

Seider

 

[QJL]

I’d say there’s no chance he goes top 5. Many reports are saying that Turcotte/Byram/Dach will be the top 5 picks. Unless LA somehow likes Cozens over Dach

Everything I’ve read indicates this will be the top 5 as well. Cozens falling. My prediction and (where I rank them):

3. CHI - Turcotte (5)
4. COL - Dach (4)
5. LAK - Byram (3)
6. DET - Zegras (8)
7. BUF - Cozens (12)
8. EDM - Caufield (22)
9. ANA - Podkolzin (9)
10. VAN - Newhook (6)

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I’ve never seen a draft that had so many variations from pick 3-7. 8-13. 14-19.

I vehemently disagree this is a weak draft. That nonsense needs to be put to rest.

Although this draft lacks a lot top end talent like most drafts, it’s loaded with a number of intriguing prospects at every position on the ice outside of goaltending.

What really excites me is the position Gorton has put us in. Unlike previous years, Gorton has chips at the table this draft.

He wanted and tried to last year and the year before, but he ultimately lacked the right assets. This year is different though. We still have a few quality chips, But we’ve also amassed a number of young players that teams want.

Andersson. Howden. Buch. Pionk. (Yes, Pionk). Lindgren. Hell, even Chytil or ADA for the right trade.

This is pretty exciting ****. Especially knowing we don’t have to decide between Byram/Turcotte/Cozens/Zegras etc.

Kakko or Hughes will be Rangers in a matter of a few weeks. And I’m confident Gorton will land another high caliber kid with our next pick.

 

[Barnaby]

If Krebs is a guy they covet, and they think he has long time top 6 center potential then I’d be okay with them making the jump if they can. I like the intangibles, defense, and hockey sense. I’ve just heard conflicting details on his offensive upside.

Newhook tore up a weak league. Krebs basically played on a garbage team and had to do everything. Two guys in different predicaments that could cause them to be picked later than if they were in another situation.

 

[n8]

I would be pissed if Kaliyev wasn't a target.

And I'm on the opposite boat. Thrilled Kaliyev isn't a target.

 

[aufheben]

I think some of the negativity towards Krebs around here came from the Tankathon generator.

Also the least sexy name ever. Sam would just give up on a Krebs-Kravtsov-Kakko line.

 

[Nickmo82]

Also the least sexy name ever. Sam would just give up on a Krebs-Kravtsov-Kakko line.

Just makes me think of the movie Downfall/Der Untergang.

 

[eco's bones]

Everything I’ve read indicates this will be the top 5 as well. Cozens falling. My prediction and (where I rank them):

3. CHI - Turcotte (5)
4. COL - Dach (4)
5. LAK - Byram (3)
6. DET - Zegras (8)
7. BUF - Cozens (12)
8. EDM - Caufield (22)
9. ANA - Podkolzin (9)
10. VAN - Newhook (6)

On Podkolzin--I could see Detroit at 6 possibly. Yzerman's not afraid to take Russians and Detroit already got something going as far as bringing in new blood and can be paitent enough to wait two years for Podkolzin. The same with Philadelphia at 11. These are teams already in the process of reinventing themselves. Anaheim's got two some guys coming but they're nowhere near where those other teams are. They're still dependent on their old guard and I don't see them wanting to wait two years for their guy to be able to come over. I think they're going to go for a guy can who they'll hope can make a more immediate impact---someone they can get in their lineup by at least 20-21. Maybe I'm wrong but that's what I'm thinking. Podkolzin will either be Detroit at 6th, maybe some shot at 10th to Vancouver (though I like your Newhook there or Broberg/Soderstrom) or 11th to Philadelphia.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Just makes me think of the movie Downfall/Der Untergang.

Literally means cancer in German

 

[Ola]

I vehemently disagree this is a weak draft. That nonsense needs to be put to rest.

Who on earth called this a weak draft?

 

[Ola]

We seem to like drafting guys that might not have high overall production but impressed late in the season or at some international tournament. Chytil and Kravtsov both seem to fit this mold. Any guys in this year's draft that we might go for along those lines?

This is good, taking the real talent that isn't noticed by everyone because the production didn't stick out.

 

[egelband]

And that's the gamble a little bit. A team taking Krebs is essentially betting on the idea that he is better than his surroundings. Kootenay (now Winnipeg) has been a hot mess since the 2015-16 season.

They drafted Krebs off a season in which they won 12 games. In the three years since drafting Krebs, they've won 14, 27 and 13. They gave up more than 320 goals three times over the last four years.

Krebs, who is more of a play maker than a goal scorer, didn't break 20 goals but scored 10 percent of of the team's collective total. I don't remember the number, but he scored/assisted on an insane percentage of his teams goals.

But the international play, the tournaments, etc. have all been great for him.

So now the question is, how high does one think the ceiling goes?

Does a team project him as a 20-25 goal scorer who can net 60-70 points? If so, with the other attributes, that's a top 10 pick pretty easily.

Do you see him sub-20 goals, and maybe more in the 50-60 point range? In that case, now you start thinking outside the top 10 in a forward-heavy draft.

But what makes the whole draft dynamic crazy is that for every riser, there must also be a faller. So if Caufield climbs, if Newhook climbs, if Broberg goes to Vancouver, if Podkolzin stays in the top 10, if Zegras doesn't slide, suddenly guys start getting squeezed out. Who are those guys who slide? Boldy? Krebs?

There's a lot of wiggle room in this draft.

Yeah. Seems the first ten are fairly certain. And then the rest is quite nebulous.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

Who on earth called this a weak draft?

There are a few posters that have says that repeatedly.

 

[Edge]

Yeah. Seems the first ten are fairly certain. And then the rest is quite nebulous.

I think things are fairly wide open starting with three, and there is a possibility for a domino effect where one variation can impact several teams.

 

[BKGooner]

If Krebs is a guy they covet, and they think he has long time top 6 center potential then I’d be okay with them making the jump if they can. I like the intangibles, defense, and hockey sense. I’ve just heard conflicting details on his offensive upside.

Newhook tore up a weak league. Krebs basically played on a garbage team and had to do everything. Two guys in different predicaments that could cause them to be picked later than if they were in another situation.

Personally, Newhooks's skating and ability to make plays at high speed make him stand out more. If he had been performing at the same level for a team in Major Junior he would be a top 5 lock. That he didn't opens the possibility the Rangers could get him. Career path wise things look a little like Kyle Turris. Sadly, I think Turris has never met expectations. A reliable#2 center with speed would be a reasonable expectation for Newhook and a good addition for a mid first round pick. Would it be a bad thing for him to get 2 years of college hockey under his belt and then join the NHL in October 2021?

 

[frisland]

I think things are fairly wide open starting with three, and there is a possibility for a domino effect where one variation can impact several teams.

I also think we'll see a run on defensemen earlier in the first round than people expect, which then drops some of those tier 2-3 forwards.

 

[Edge]

I also think we'll see a run on defensemen earlier in the first round than people expect, which then drops some of those tier 2-3 forwards.

I think that's quite possible.

IMO, Broberg could go a lot higher than some might think. And guys like Soderstrom, York, and Seider are wildcards to push to for higher spots.

Boldy could quickly become one of the better value picks in this draft if he's pushed down as well.

 

[Ola]

There are a few posters that have says that repeatedly.

Hm, OK, that surprises me. I think the top 2 is strong, I don't think there is anything wrong at all with the top 3-4 either (which has a big impact) and its not a top 6-8 draft either, more like top 12-13 (I think there are very little difference between like the 12th top player and the 6th top player, from my POV). Then I don't think that the range from like 14-20 stands out a ton. But there are especially many Ds that are really solid and will be available long into the 2nd round.

Overall I would be surprised if it was a draft for the ages, but I think it will be strong. Would be surprised if it was a weak draft. But what do I know.

 

[Ola]

Yeah. Seems the first ten are fairly certain. And then the rest is quite nebulous.

I think even the top 13-14 could be very flexible:
Hughes
Kakko
Turcotte
Newhook
Zegras
Podkolzin
Knight
Boldy
Byram
Cozens
Broberg
Caufield
Dach
Seider

And who knows, someone might look at Krebs in that range too. Although I wouldn't.

Take a kid like Dach -- I think he could be all over the top 14 for teams. Same with Cozens, Newhook, Podkolzin, Caufield and co. Seider? Broberg? Would of course bet on them being in the later 3rd of 1-14, but who knows. Its not like I would fall of a chair if anyone took either of them 7-8.

 

[cwede]

I think things are fairly wide open starting with three, and there is a possibility for a domino effect where one variation can impact several teams.

I also think we'll see a run on defensemen earlier in the first round than people expect, which then drops some of those tier 2-3 forwards.

yep, and also a team with need could grab goalie Knight in top 19, it just takes one

that's why i don't want to trade 20 in a bundle, there is likely to be multiple strong options still on the board

 

[Edge]

yep, and also a team with need could grab goalie Knight in top 19, it just takes one

that's why i don't want to trade 20 in a bundle, there is likely to be multiple strong options still on the board

Knight is a prime example of a guy who isn't on our radar (at least I don't think he is), who is also a candidate to impact the availability of a player we like.

 

[patnyrnyg]

Who on earth called this a weak draft?

I have been hearing this for over a year. You have 2 studs. The rest of the first rounders would probably go 10-20 spots lower than where they go in most years (not my words, a paraphrase of what I have heard/read).

 

[frisland]

i was happy to trade up for miller last year. This year (right now at least) i dont feel the need to jump up 4-5-6 spots. There are a bunch of guys I feel will be options at 20 and i'd be content with any of them.

 

[Edge]

I have been hearing this for over a year. You have 2 studs. The rest would probably go 10-20 spots lower than where they go in most years (not my words, a paraphrase of what I have heard/read).

I don't think the 2019 draft is the 2003 draft by any stretch, but whoever used the 10-20 spots line might want to find a new passion project to pursue.

 

[patnyrnyg]

I think things are fairly wide open starting with three, and there is a possibility for a domino effect where one variation can impact several teams.

Agreed. I would not be surprised if they pick someone at 20 and the opinions are so varied than some think they got a guy that should have gone top-10 and then some who think he was not going before 30 or 40.