Firstly, I don't believe in rankings. Find most lists to be fodder for subscription likes, follow back and what have you. I think that teams have their lists that they value per their own scouting department. I, more so, value players via their own talent and make a range on where I think they should be picked. For example, I think Dahlin is a top 5 talent (even though he'll most likely go No. 1 on draft day). I also think Svechnikov is a top 5 talent (and I also think he could No. 1 on draft day). Zadina is also a top 5 talent, IMO, but on-the-other-hand, isn't on the same level as the aforementioned two players (which then I'd say he could be picked up No. 3-5, but no lower). I hope I made sense of that. I feel it makes more sense to fairly evaluate and assume where a player could end up come draft day.
Anyways, I also think there are higher talented guys available at No. 8, but seeing that Veleno already possesses great edge work and good offensive (and defensive) IQ, how couldn't he have high end offense in his post draft season? I could see him having better offensive numbers than, say, Tkachuk in their first NHL seasons.
What I guess I'm trying to ask is how can a guy pegged as "safe" have more to prove via the way they play? I think this question can be slated for Sean Day, as well, but Veleno and Day are obviously two different players. I just find it interesting that most say they're concerned about his scoring in the pros, when he does all the things right to, indeed, score or create scoring chances right now. If the player does have this high IQ, they would work on those things in the offseason so that it becomes more of a prominent component of their game, right?
I'll use Howden as an example. I think most can say that in his draft year, he showed underwhelming numbers. But, with his IQ, learned to evaluate the rights and wrongs and became a better prospect in the post draft seasons he accumulated.
I wouldn't think Veleno is that much of a concern than compared to others slotted in the 1st round, IMO. I could easily see somebody taking him in the top 10, especially with the lack of forwards projected to go in the top 10, to boot.
For me, the rankings are more to give some sense of order to things, but they aren’t the end all be all. For example, the difference between 4 and 10 could be fairly small, or a matter of preference. Meanwhile, the difference between 11 and 13 could be significant. I merely used it because people like to see where I have players in relation to one another.
With regards to Veleno, I think he’s an interesting case because of how many times we’ve had a chance to see him over the years. This isn’t a kid with a single junior season under his belt. In this case he has 216 some odd junior games under his belt and 191 points, in the Q no less. So we have a lot more mileage under the hood, in some cases two or even three times as many games as some of the other options. For me, thus far, a very clear picture has emerged. He’s a smart player, but not necessarily a dynamic offensive player.
The fact of the matter is that there are very few, if any, high scoring NHL centers who have produced at the same pace through 200 junior games. I can’t really think of any off the top of my head, and if we did manage to it together a list, the names would be few and far between.
That’s not meant as an insult toward Veleno, I’ve just seen enough kids over the last 25 years that I feel the odds of him suddenly turning into higher end scorer at the NHL level is pretty slim. If anything, I’ve seen far more examples of projections over-favoring kids who are good at multiple areas other than top end offense. People tend to like those players, they’re easy to root. There’s a lot to like in the overall game, so we tend to give them the benefit of the doubt on offense.
You cited Howden as an example, but I think there are some key differences to note. For example, people didn’t really debate Howden as a top 10 pick. Most observers had him slated for the 24-30 range.
Second, Howden has played roughly the equivalent of an entire season less before he was drafted. I’d also argue that his offense progress was more pronounced, though certainly not spectacular.
But Howden has also shown a knack for being a guy who lifts his linemates and teams in a variety of situations. So his rise is about more than what he’s shown in Moose Jaw.
So that begs the question, could Veleno get to that point? Maybe. Would I want to bank on that over some of the other guys in the top of the draft? No, not particularly. But that doesn’t mean I think he’s incapable of bringing some good production. I just think there are a dozen or so guys whose combination would be more appealing if they were sitting on the board along with Veleno.