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Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

The sentiment on the Rangers board seems to be that they’re keeping the pick. Probably the preferred move for both sides. Dubas, rip it down to the studs and go all in on the 26 and 27 drafts.
 
Pancakes said:
I could see McQueen simply because I do recall a lot of talk in Dubas' first draft here about how he wanted his scouts to not be afraid to take boom or bust players. Like basically that his drafting philosophy was taking high upside guys rather than "safe" picks.

McQueen doesn't strike me as a super safe pick but he does have a lot of upside with his size I guess.

Btw here's the list of 11th overall picks since 2005. Bolded are guys who became or are on track to become pretty good players:

2024: Sam Dickinson
2023: Tom Willander
2022: Conor Geekie
2021: nobody (Arizona forfeited their pick)
2020: Yaroslav Askarov
2019: Victor Soderstrom
2018: Olivier Wahlstrom
2017: Gabe Vilardi
2016: Logan Brown
2015: Lawson Crouse
2014: Kevin Fiala
2013: Samuel Morin
2012: Filip Forsberg
2011: Duncan Siemens
2010: Jack Campbell
2009: Ryan Ellis
2008: Kyle Beach
2007: Brandon Sutter
2006: Jonathan Bernier
2005: Anze Kopitar

Kind of a graveyard of talent lmao. This list is sure to depress you all :laugh: .

A few high quality players in the bunch though.

I'm too lazy to post #12 overall as well and I don't know if we're even getting that pick yet but it's a similar type of list there. Big names at #12 include the likes of Matt Boldy, Martin Necas, Anton Lundell, Noah Dobson, and Ryan Mcdonagh.
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Too lazy to read my posts already doing this too huh? HUH PANCAKES?
 
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Turin said:
Too lazy to read my posts already doing this too huh? HUH PANCAKES?
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Sorry mate, the forums became a laggy mess during the lottery (hf lagging out during an important hockey moment? shocking) and I must have missed your post about that.
Peat said:
From an eyeball that seems to be about a 1 in 5 chance of getting a dude, 1 in 5 chance of getting a bust, and a 3 in 5 chance of getting filler. I can live with that, but I'm also very open to trading it if the right young player is out there.
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Yeah I do wonder if trading our pick for an established prospect is now on the table. Everyone has been assuming Dubas will keep our pick but I wouldn't be totally shocked if he dealt it for a player further along in development. Depends if the Pens think they're going to get an impact player at 11 or not I suppose.
 
My predictions:
1. Due to the fact that every team's draft board is different, whomever the Pens pick will end up being the same player they would have picked at 9th.
2. This player will not be any of the players that people on these boards have gotten their hearts set on.
3. There will be endless complaining about this pick for years.

:sarcasm:
 
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Freeptop said:
My predictions:
1. Due to the fact that every team's draft board is different, whomever the Pens pick will end up being the same player they would have picked at 9th.
2. This player will not be any of the players that people on these boards have gotten their hearts set on.
3. There will be endless complaining about this pick for years.

:sarcasm:
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I've seen the future and this is all true. Ergo, burn the witch!

Pancakes said:
Yeah I do wonder if trading our pick for an established prospect is now on the table. Everyone has been assuming Dubas will keep our pick but I wouldn't be totally shocked if he dealt it for a player further along in development. Depends if the Pens think they're going to get an impact player at 11 or not I suppose.
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I think I've always believed in it. I mean, it's just Yager for McGroarty mk 2 if you find the right opening, right? But a little fall maybe makes it more likely
 
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DesertedPenguin said:
This is why you can't count on winning the lotto to jumpstart your franchise.

No one had NY or Utah winning the draw. Some years it's chalk. Some years it's not. Tanking doesn't guarantee you anything. Draft, develop, and acquire talent in other ways instead of assuming you're getting #1 or #2.
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This is pretty good evidence in favor. If you truly tank like SJ you end up with the #2 pick.
 
bambamcam4ever said:
This is pretty good evidence in favor. If you truly tank like SJ you end up with the #2 pick.
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I'm not sure that there's a stark difference in most drafts between any of the Top 10 prospects. Sure, there are some years where there is a clear top two or a really deep draft or a future star like Crosby or McDavid.

But a lot of drafts feature a lot of busts inside the Top 10 and a decent number of stars outside of the Top 10.
 
Very excited to get another Yager that a bunch of people say is this amazing piece and 26th overall next year and hear about how great that draft is.

Reality: This is why you don’t waste years tanking. This is why you sell assets for as many 1sts as you can in underachieving years and this is further proof Dubas has a lot to learn.
 
DesertedPenguin said:
I'm not sure that there's a stark difference in most drafts between any of the Top 10 prospects. Sure, there are some years where there is a clear top two or a really deep draft or a future star like Crosby or McDavid.

But a lot of drafts feature a lot of busts inside the Top 10 and a decent number of stars outside of the Top 10.
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The drop off is pretty steep, you should look up the average points and GP by pick.

Compare picks #2 and #6:

NHL Players selected at the 2nd draft position at hockeydb.com

All players selected with the 2nd position in the NHL draft
www.hockeydb.com

NHL Players selected at the 6th draft position at hockeydb.com

All players selected with the 6th position in the NHL draft
www.hockeydb.com
 
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Gurglesons said:
Very excited to get another Yager that a bunch of people say is this amazing piece and 26th overall next year and hear about how great that draft is.

Reality: This is why you don’t waste years tanking. This is why you sell assets for as many 1sts as you can in underachieving years and this is further proof Dubas has a lot to learn.
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Are you still upset about the Guentzel trade?
 
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DesertedPenguin said:
I'm not sure that there's a stark difference in most drafts between any of the Top 10 prospects. Sure, there are some years where there is a clear top two or a really deep draft or a future star like Crosby or McDavid.

But a lot of drafts feature a lot of busts inside the Top 10 and a decent number of stars outside of the Top 10.
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Legitimately one of the dumbest things ever said on HFPens and as the owner of 2. 3. And 4 I’m an expert.
 
Gurglesons said:
Legitimately one of the dumbest things ever said on HFPens and as the owner of 2. 3. And 4 I’m an expert.
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Yeah, it's kind of a weird conclusion to draw based on hindsight. That's like saying a 2nd round pick is more valuable this draft than drafting 1st overall because you could draft Kucherov with that 2nd round pick compared to a chance to draft Patrik Stefan with the 1st overall.
 
DesertedPenguin said:
I'm not sure that there's a stark difference in most drafts between any of the Top 10 prospects. Sure, there are some years where there is a clear top two or a really deep draft or a future star like Crosby or McDavid.

But a lot of drafts feature a lot of busts inside the Top 10 and a decent number of stars outside of the Top 10.
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To me it really depends on how those teams allow those players to develop and guide them. Also joining a team that will actually work to develop them further. Now that Sullivan is gone, I actually have a lot of hope in anyone they draft at 11 turning out well. MacDonald in wbs when they get there, any coach not Sullivan is already a boost.
 
bambamcam4ever said:
The drop off is pretty steep, you should look up the average points and GP by pick.

Compare picks #2 and #6:

NHL Players selected at the 2nd draft position at hockeydb.com

All players selected with the 2nd position in the NHL draft
www.hockeydb.com

NHL Players selected at the 6th draft position at hockeydb.com

All players selected with the 6th position in the NHL draft
www.hockeydb.com
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I always appreciate data, but it requires context. When we're including players from the early days of the NHL and even the 1980s in datasets like this, we lose context.

For one, there are more teams. Draft strategies change as leagues get larger. Two, training has changed. Player development has changed. And three, the lottery process has changed and overall draft process has changed. There were teams, especially in the 1980s, who didn't value draft picks at all. So they'd trade them at the drop of a hat, allowing other teams to stockpile picks, altering their own strategy.

A more relevant dataset would be post-salary cap era, since there has been some form of a lottery and a renewed emphasis on the value of draft picks since the 2004 lockout.
 
Gurglesons said:
Legitimately one of the dumbest things ever said on HFPens and as the owner of 2. 3. And 4 I’m an expert.
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I've said dumber.

Look at this draft. Is there really a clear cut separation between the top ten prospects? Hell, even the likely No. 1 pick in Schaefer has question marks. Misa has question marks. They're still good players with very promising futures, but they're far from sure things.

The separation between #1 and #10 is not all that vast.
 
DesertedPenguin said:
I always appreciate data, but it requires context. When we're including players from the early days of the NHL and even the 1980s in datasets like this, we lose context.

For one, there are more teams. Draft strategies change as leagues get larger. Two, training has changed. Player development has changed. And three, the lottery process has changed and overall draft process has changed. There were teams, especially in the 1980s, who didn't value draft picks at all. So they'd trade them at the drop of a hat, allowing other teams to stockpile picks, altering their own strategy.

A more relevant dataset would be post-salary cap era, since there has been some form of a lottery and a renewed emphasis on the value of draft picks since the 2004 lockout.
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Click the first column to sort by date, this is just the first link I found.

Since 1999, around 40% of #2 picks are franchise changing players. At least 7 will be in the HOF.

For #6s, you have Matthew Tkachuk, a pair of low-end 1Cs and 1Ds, and a collection of mediocre to good players, but not difference makers.

My estimate for HOFers by pick from 1999-2019 since it's too early for more recent picks:

1: 11-12
2: 7-8
3: 4 (although Gaborik was a HOF caliber player)
4: 4
5: 1-2
6: 1
7: 1-3
8: 0
9: 0
10: 1
11: 1

When there's just below 3 HHOFers drafted per year, you're looking at almost half of them selected in just the first 4 picks. And a HOF forward is close to a prerequisite to winning a cup.
 
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bambamcam4ever said:
Click the first column to sort by date, this is just the first link I found.

Since 1999, around 40% of #2 picks are franchise changing players. At least 7 will be in the HOF.

For #6s, you have Matthew Tkachuk, a pair of low-end 1Cs and 1Ds, and a collection of mediocre to good players, but not difference makers.

My estimate for HOFers by pick from 1999-2019 since it's too early for more recent picks:

1: 11-12
2: 7-8
3: 4 (although Gaborik was a HOF caliber player)
4: 4
5: 1-2
6: 1
7: 1-3
8: 0
9: 0
10: 1
11: 1

When there's just below 3 HHOFers drafted per year, you're looking at almost half of them selected in just the first 4 picks. And a HOF forward is close to a prerequisite to winning a cup.
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Yeah, it’s possible to get those kinds of impact players elsewhere (though I’d argue with smart phones and the internet there are far fewer players flying under the radar now than in previous eras), it’s really rare. Which is why we should be maximizing picks and trying to get the highest pick possible for a season or two.
 
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