Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I'm a big McG fan and I think Martone's just a way better version of McG. So I'd be ecstatic if he fell into this team's lap.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I ran the lottery 10 times, I got the #1 pick 3 times, the #2 pick 2 times, the #3 pick once (that rate scenario where Detroit wins the #1 lottery but moves up to only 2) and no moves in the draft 5 times.

I think these odds are a little busted on this site

 

[Malkinstheman]

If it's not the Pens, I hope the Hawks win the lottery. That would take them out of the running for McKenna and Dupont. They're probably gonna suck again next year so not having them in the lottery really helps

 

[Gurglesons]

Schaefer in black and gold gonna feed families

I'd still take Misa.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

I'd still take Misa.

Ditto. Misa, Schaefer, Frondell, Hagens are my top four. FOR THIS TEAM.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I'd still take Misa.

I’m not sure Misa is better than Hagens.

 

[SEALBound]

Martone feels like the main guy that's going to slide if guys like O'Brien and Martin get overdrafted, which doesn't make any sense to me because Martone still had a damn good season.

Did he slow down in the second half of the year? Yeah, but he still finished 7th in the OHL in points while being one of the best EV producers in the OHL. He had 28 goals and 66 points in 57 games at even strength this year, that pace (75 points in 65 games prorated) is closer to Misa at EV (83 points in 65 games) than Martin (59 points in 65 games prorated) or O'Brien (47 points in 66 games).

Martone shouldn't be going below #5, I think he should be going #4 over Desnoyers but I think Philly almost definitely takes Desnoyers at #4.

His size and playstyle is too rare of a commodity. With Philly and Boston getting top 5 most likely, he's not falling past one of them.

Is anyone tailgating for the draft lotto or am I just a raging alcoholic?

Too busy doing my voodoo and black magic stuff to manifest us the 2ov pick.

 

[DRAGO 18]

CMONNNNNNN UNCLE GARY ITS BEEN AWHILE BUDDY

 

[OtherThingsILike]

With Martin and Mrtka, among others rising, this means that the 'tiers' in the draft don't stop at #8 and we should be able to get a comparable player at #9. It also means that the #11 pick is more valuable than it might be, which is good for getting the Rangers to keep it and also good if they decide to give it to us this year.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Hopefully that means Eklund (or maybe even the pipe dream of Hagens) gets to us.

Let's say that somehow Hagens isn't picked top 8. Let's assume that we remain at #9 and the Islanders at #10. Is there a reasonable trade you'd accept to trade down one spot?

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Let's say that somehow Hagens isn't picked top 8. Let's assume that we remain at #9 and the Islanders at #10. Is there a reasonable trade you'd accept to trade down one spot?

would have to include their unprotected ‘26 1st for me not to hang up and sprint to the podium.

Even though you could argue that isn’t “reasonable” I struggle to really consider any offer that doesn’t include it. I think it’s a tough deal to make if you view Hagens like I do (2nd-3rd in this class and potential 1C)

 

[Ugene Magic]

Let's say that somehow Hagens isn't picked top 8. Let's assume that we remain at #9 and the Islanders at #10. Is there a reasonable trade you'd accept to trade down one spot?

Who's left on the board to make it worthwild?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Nah you take Hagens 10/10 times if he lasts until #9. Hell, I'd be talking about trading up to #6 or #7 if he slides that far. Same with Martone for that matter.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

Who's left on the board to make it worthwild?

For the sake of simplicity, I will use the Wheeler ranking that @Empoleon8771 posted. Assume that the top 9 players are the same, in some order, just with no Hagens:

Wheeler dropped his top-64 ranking today as well, here's his top-15:

1. Shaefer
2. Misa
3. Hagens
4. Martone
5. Desnoyers
6. Frondell
7. Mrtka
8. Eklund
9. O'Brien
10. Martin
11. McQueen
12. Carbonneau
13. Aitcheson
14. Bear
15. Reschny

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Yeah if a Hagens or Martone is available at like 6 or 7, I think it'd be worth it to trade the 9th overall and two of the myriad of 2nd rounders this team's got in the next couple years to get it done.

 

[Ugene Magic]

For the sake of simplicity, I will use the Wheeler ranking that @Empoleon8771 posted. Assume that the top 9 players are the same, in some order, just with no Hagens:

Wheeler dropped his top-64 ranking today as well, here's his top-15:

1. Shaefer
2. Misa
3. Hagens
4. Martone
5. Desnoyers
6. Frondell
7. Mrtka
8. Eklund
9. O'Brien
10. Martin
11. McQueen
12. Carbonneau
13. Aitcheson
14. Bear
15. Reschny

That would make it Hagens <=> Martin which means 100% taking Hagens.

 

[SEALBound]

For the sake of simplicity, I will use the Wheeler ranking that @Empoleon8771 posted. Assume that the top 9 players are the same, in some order, just with no Hagens:

Wheeler dropped his top-64 ranking today as well, here's his top-15:

1. Shaefer
2. Misa
3. Hagens
4. Martone
5. Desnoyers
6. Frondell
7. Mrtka
8. Eklund
9. O'Brien
10. Martin
11. McQueen
12. Carbonneau
13. Aitcheson
14. Bear
15. Reschny

IF we get the Rangers pick and both of JOB and Martin are off the board, I wonder what we could get if we trade down to like 15 and take Kindel. Would be nice to get an extra early 2nd. I would even entertain something like 16+41 for 11+63 if Montreal wanted to trade up.

ETA: At 41 I would really hoping for McKinney. Unless we can find someone with late first who would trade down for an extra 3rd.

ETA2: Perhaps SJS gives us 33 for 41 + 73?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah I'm trading up in one of two scenarios:

1. They're sitting at #9 and Hagens or Martone falls to #6 or #7
2. They get the Rangers 1st and trade up to #7 or #8 to make sure they get 2 of Martin, O'Brien and Eklund (ideally Eklund and Martin)

Otherwise I'm just standing pat with wherever the picks end up.

 

[OtherThingsILike]

That would make it Hagens <=> Martin which means 100% taking Hagens.

Right, you could frame it as 'What would the Islanders need to give me to take Martin instead of Hagens?'
You could also suggest, 'Well, I wouldn't do it for Martin, but if O'Brien also fell, I like O'Brien better, so I would only trade down if O'Brien were available instead of Martin'.
But it seems like you're saying there's no reasonable offer that could be made, which is fine.

 

[Ryder71]

IF we get the Rangers pick and both of JOB and Martin are off the board, I wonder what we could get if we trade down to like 15 and take Kindel. Would be nice to get an extra early 2nd. I would even entertain something like 16+41 for 11+63 if Montreal wanted to trade up.

ETA: At 41 I would really hoping for McKinney. Unless we can find someone with late first who would trade down for an extra 3rd.

ETA2: Perhaps SJS gives us 33 for 41 + 73?

Doubt the Rags give up their pick. But I agree with your premise. Definitely would be thrilled with JOB and or Martin in that order.

For the record I like Reschny better than Kindel although I like both a lot.

 

[SEALBound]

Doubt the Rags give up their pick. But I agree with your premise. Definitely would be thrilled with JOB and or Martin in that order.

For the record I like Reschny better than Kindel although I like both a lot.

I'd even look at Bear or Carbanneau as well. Point is though, we get a solid wing and move WAY up in the 2nd. There are still some guys l like in that late 1st / early 2nd area.

I think the idea you hit on is someone wanting either McQueen or their shot at a PMD in Smith or Aitcheson.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Right, you could frame it as 'What would the Islanders need to give me to take Martin instead of Hagens?'
You could also suggest, 'Well, I wouldn't do it for Martin, but if O'Brien also fell, I like O'Brien better, so I would only trade down if O'Brien were available instead of Martin'.
But it seems like you're saying there's no reasonable offer that could be made, which is fine.

Yeah, it would have to be someone way more valuable than Martin for me. I'd pause for O'Brien for sure because, I have just Frondell between them in my center ranking and I do value O'Briens size,

 

[WickedWrister]

I forget, when do the Rangers have to decide whether to protect the pick or not? It's like ~2 days from now, right?

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

I forget, when do the Rangers have to decide whether to protect the pick or not? It's like ~2 days from now, right?

Two days before the draft, as I was told.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

The idea that the Sharks are entertaining trading down is interesting, but then you look at the teams behind them and wonder what the hell a team with zero prospects like the Bruins or a meh prospect pool like the Flyers or Preds could possibly do to make it worthwhile.