Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Waiting for the Draft Lotto

[xlm34]

They can just do that with this year’s pick. Just because you draft someone doesn’t mean you can’t trade them.

You can. I’d imagine there are teams that may not value whoever the Rangers would pick though over a ‘26 first.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

If there was even a tiny percentage chance the Rags would give us their pick that’s gone now. They shelled out $35 million to improve next year. No point in even pretending we’re getting that pick this year.

The logic being... that the expect to improve next year thus having a "worse" pick, yes?

Though the supposed "better depth" of next year's draft could come in to play.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Even if the Rangers rebound a bit, I don't think they're going to be handing the Pens later than a ~20th overall. That team lives and dies by Shesterkin. Their depth's trash, their other big names are close to aging out, they have one (1) prospect who has any potential to be an offensive impact and Sullivan's likely to ratf*** that kid's development.

Based on the "2025 is a weak draft" stuff, the 11th overall might not be much different than the ~20th pick in terms of quality of prospect.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Based on the "2025 is a weak draft" stuff, the 11th overall might not be much different than the ~20th pick in terms of quality of prospect.

I keep seeing this opinion but going through draft classes in the cap era, it's very unlikely dropping 9+ spots between drafts would be equal value prospects available. 2015 was the strongest cap era draft and that's the only one where drafting 20-25 had arguably better selections than most drafts at 11-15. Maybe if 2025 is really weak and 2026 is arguably the best ever, but overall seems like a value loss if Rags convey 20+ next year instead of 11-13 this year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I keep seeing this opinion but going through draft classes in the cap era, it's very unlikely dropping 9+ spots between drafts would be equal value prospects available. 2015 was the strongest cap era draft and that's the only one where drafting 20-25 had arguably better selections than most drafts at 11-15. Maybe if 2025 is really weak and 2026 is arguably the best ever, but overall seems like a value loss if Rags convey 20+ next year instead of 11-13 this year.

How a player does in the future does not equal how good of a prospect they were at the time of the draft.

Even in the 2025 draft, it's pretty likely that someone drafted in the late 1st round is going to significantly surpass the expectations that most scouts would put their upside at. That said, pretty much every single source I've seen says that scouts consider this draft weak and most guys going in the #10-15 range would be #20-#25 range in 2026.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I keep seeing this opinion but going through draft classes in the cap era, it's very unlikely dropping 9+ spots between drafts would be equal value prospects available. 2015 was the strongest cap era draft and that's the only one where drafting 20-25 had arguably better selections than most drafts at 11-15. Maybe if 2025 is really weak and 2026 is arguably the best ever, but overall seems like a value loss if Rags convey 20+ next year instead of 11-13 this year.

I just mean that after like the 10th overall pick, it's all a bit of a crapshoot with guys having worse and worse odds of becoming significant NHLers. This is widely considered to be a weaker draft in that the drop off from the first four or five guys is steeper than usual. I don't really think there's much of a difference between a guy in a random draft taken like 12th and a guy taken 20th in terms of odds of hitting.

The real value in the Rangers' pick is if they punt it to next year and that team continues to stumble, or they have an injury to Panarin or Shesterkin. If either of those two guys miss significant time, that pick could easily end up being top 5 imo.

 

[Jared Grayden]

How a player does in the future does not equal how good of a prospect they were at the time of the draft.

True, but I said it was "value loss" meaning the outcome is likely worse for PIT. Which is self evident going through draft years. It's not a matter of who has the best prospect pool. It's a matter of who adds the most value to their NHL roster. And those aren't perfectly congruent.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If you look at the 2024 draft, I think you can see a very clear difference between the prospects taken in the #10-#15 range and compare that to who is projected to go in the #10-#15 range this year. Dickinson, Buium and Helenius all seem to be clear steps up from the guys on the Smith, Mrtka, Martin and Bear group. Buium and Dickinson especially seem like guys who would be going #7 or higher in the draft, while Helenius seems roughly equal to Eklund.

To get equal prospects to the #10-#14 range this year, I think you're looking more like the #18-#22 range from last year where guys like Boisvert, Eiserman and Hage were taken. It's pretty clear comparing the 2024 draft to the mock 2025 draft with how far of a step down the 2025 projected prospects are from the prospects taken at the same spot in 2024.

 

[Jacob]

I think the Rangers, like every team, will have high confidence in their scouts and their ability to find someone at 11 that will develop well and have even higher value in December or January. Just like they did with Perreault.

 

[Andy99]

Well there goes our first round draft pick lol…

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Well there goes our first round draft pick lol…

Seeing on twitter that that's actually William, the Sharks' forward.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah Victor Eklund isn't playing in any games right now. He'd be playing in the IIHF U-18 tournament right now if he was playing, but he's not.

 

[Andy99]

Seeing on twitter that that's actually William, the Sharks' forward.

Not that that’s good, but phew,,,,

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Victor also shoots right, William shoots left iirc.

 

[Jacob]

Victor is a righty also.

 

[Jacob]

Yeah Victor Eklund isn't playing in any games right now. He'd be playing in the IIHF U-18 tournament right now if he was playing, but he's not.

He’s too old.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Yeah Victor Eklund isn't playing in any games right now. He'd be playing in the IIHF U-18 tournament right now if he was playing, but he's not.

Too old

Edit: Jacob beat me to it

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I like both Eklunds a lot. Skilled and great on the boards. My type of player(s).

I think Victor has better tools than big bro too

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Any video of that Brady Martin hit?

 

[Jacob]

Maybe this?

 

[Turin]

Maybe this?

Armstrong special

 

[Beauner]

Even if the Rangers rebound a bit, I don't think they're going to be handing the Pens later than a ~20th overall. That team lives and dies by Shesterkin. Their depth's trash, their other big names are close to aging out, they have one (1) prospect who has any potential to be an offensive impact and Sullivan's likely to ratf*** that kid's development.

Based on the "2025 is a weak draft" stuff, the 11th overall might not be much different than the ~20th pick in terms of quality of prospect.

Yeah call me optimistic but I just don’t see Sully giving that team that significant of a bump.

Obviously their offseason moves will be very significant in terms of their ability to rebound, but if they just kinda shuffle around their middle six forwards and bottom 4 D I really don’t see how that team is gonna be much better than top 15-20 in the league in the best case scenario.

 

[SEALBound]

Maybe this?

I don't want this hit but I want the guy that will make this hit.

 

[Empoleon8771]

That Martin hit reminds me so much of this Malkin hit.

Feel free to question his upside but I sure as hell won’t be upset if the Penguins draft him with their pick. Going to be a really fun player to watch.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

1. Hard to tell how late the hit is when the clip provided is slowed down.
2. Love, love, LOVED that Geno hit.