Prospect Info: Draft 2025: Is it too late to tank? Asking for a friend

[Le Magnifique 66]

So many useless points picked up in the last 3 weeks. We could have picked up a Hagens or Frondell, now we get none of those top guys.

Sullivan better be fired in the next 48h

 

[Andy99]

I’m sold on him. I like him & Spence. They look like NHLers that don’t need a lot of development time.

NHLers perhaps but not elite or top six players they don’t look like…I mean Rust did it but the odds aren’t great

 

[Empoleon8771]

I'm not going to act like picking #9 instead of #7 isn't a bummer, but man some of you need to drink a beer and take a Xanax

At #9, I think they're probably looking at Eklund with Martin as the fallback option. At #7, I think it would have been O'Brien with Eklund as the fallback option. Would it have been nicer to be at #7 to have more options? Sure, but acting like it's a "franchise altering mistake" is just purely hysteria.

The big impact of their pick being at #9 is that it basically eliminates the chance of someone like Martone sliding to their pick. I think it was unlikely at #7, but there was still a chance there. At #9, I think it simply will not happen.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I've simed tankothon many times before the Pens won the 2nd OA and have been passed over by the NYR's on multiple tries and the Pens were forced to #10 and #11 more than getting a lottery win.

You don’t need to sim to know that lmao. That’s literally the odds. They have a 10% chance at 1 or 2, and a 25% chance to move back.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

If the Penguins do not move up the lottery, they will pick ninth.

They have made two No. 9 overall picks in franchise history:
1980 - Mike Bullard, center (727 NHL games, 674 career points)
1984 - Doug Bodger, defenseman (1071 NHL games, 528 career points)

Here are recent No. 9 overall picks:
2024 - Zayne Perekh, defenseman (Calgary)
2023 - Nate Danielson, center (Detroit)
2022 - Matthew Savoie, center (Buffalo)
2021 - Dylan Guenther, right wing (Arizona)
2020 - Marco Rossi, center (Minnesota)
2019 - Trevor Zegras, center (Anaheim)
2018 - Vitali Kravtsov, right wing (NY Rangers)
2017 - Michael Rasmussen, center (Detroit)
2016 - Mikhail Sergachev, defenseman (Montreal)
2015 - Timo Meier, right wing (San Jose)

 

[Ugene Magic]

You don’t need to sim to know that lmao. That’s literally the odds. They have a 10% chance at 1 or 2, and a 25% chance to move back.

Doesn't explain the many times the NYR's got #1, like 5/6 times....

Which I'm sure would piss everyone off.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Tbh I won’t care about 7th vs 9th if we get Eklund. My issue was always not getting into top 5-6 and getting a Martone, Hagens, Misa or Schaefer.

 

[Ryder71]

NHLers perhaps but not elite or top six players they don’t look like…I mean Rust did it but the odds aren’t great

Martin COULD be a solid 2hd line center if most things go right. O'Brien could be a 1st line center if all goes well. That's kinda the difference here. Hope the Pens enjoy that game 82 victory. It cost us 7th.

 

[Ugene Magic]

If the Penguins do not move up the lottery, they will pick ninth.

They have made two No. 9 overall picks in franchise history:
1980 - Mike Bullard, center (727 NHL games, 674 career points)
1984 - Doug Bodger, defenseman (1071 NHL games, 528 career points)

Here are recent No. 9 overall picks:
2024 - Zayne Perekh, defenseman (Calgary)
2023 - Nate Danielson, center (Detroit)
2022 - Matthew Savoie, center (Buffalo)
2021 - Dylan Guenther, right wing (Arizona)
2020 - Marco Rossi, center (Minnesota)
2019 - Trevor Zegras, center (Anaheim)
2018 - Vitali Kravtsov, right wing (NY Rangers)
2017 - Michael Rasmussen, center (Detroit)
2016 - Mikhail Sergachev, defenseman (Montreal)
2015 - Timo Meier, right wing (San Jose)

That list isn't exactly encouraging.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Doesn't explain the many times the NYR's got #1, like 5/6 times....

Which I'm sure would piss everyone off.

Puny sample size brotha. Also tankathon spins fail to really simulate how the actual lottery works.

How does the NHL draft lottery work? Everything you need to know

Which teams can move up to No. 1? What are their chances? Who are the best players available in this year's draft class?

www.espn.com

 

[Ryder71]

It is a setback though. Because we're likely going from potential 1st liners into potential 2hd liners. I think there's enough of a difference where it really does matter. Time will tell, but having better options considering the season this team had had would've made things better.

We were so inefficient with how bad we really are. We got the worst position out of the three scenarios entering today. I'm not surprised, but yeah pretty disappointing.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

It is a setback though. Because we're likely going from potential 1st liners into potential 2hd liners. I think there's enough of a difference where it really does matter. Time will tell, but having better options considering the season this team had had would've made things better.

We were so inefficient with how bad we really are. We got the worst position out of the three scenarios entering today. I'm not surprised, but yeah pretty disappointing.

No matter who we pick with the 9th pick (and potentially 11th pick) those two guys almost instantly jump into our top 5 in prospects.

They will be force fed L1 minutes in a couple years no matter what. I highly doubt there is much difference skill wise between 7th and 9th.

 

[Ryder71]

No matter who we pick with the 9th pick (and potentially 11th pick) those two guys almost instantly jump into our top 5 in prospects.

They will be force fed L1 minutes in a couple years no matter what. I highly doubt there is much difference skill wise between 7th and 9th.

Every draft has a different down tick in talent. The perception is that the top 7-8 were a solid step or two above the rest. We happen to pick right after that cutoff. We're still gonna get a good player, but maybe not a future piece in the core.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I highly doubt there is much difference skill wise between 7th and 9th.

I tend to agree. Real damage was not getting to 5-6 and was done week or two ago.

Two spots on the final night of the year stings but ultimately it’s not getting a top four guy in this draft that makes this season pretty painful.

Eklund is my 5th ranked player though, so I’ll be pretty happy if we can still get him.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

That list isn't exactly encouraging.

2015 - Rantantan was taken 10th after Meier
2016 - Charlie McAvoy was 14th and Jakob Chychrun was 16th
2017 - Necas was 12th and Nick Suzuki 13th. Robert Thomas was 20th.
2018 - Bouchard was 10th. K'Andre Miller 22nd
2019 - Matt Boldy was 12th, Cole Caufield 15th
2020 - Perfetti 10th. Lundell 12th.

Just a sampling.

The talent is there. You just need to make the right selection and then develop that player.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Puny sample size brotha. Also tankathon spins fail to really simulate how the actual lottery works.

How does the NHL draft lottery work? Everything you need to know

Which teams can move up to No. 1? What are their chances? Who are the best players available in this year's draft class?

www.espn.com

The point is, the Pens had more hits when they were #7/#8, and it wasn't a small sample size, I hit the button many, many times. Crazy a 3.0 odds hit more than 5.0.

I understand the odds.

It's really a stupid thing anyways. That's why I don't gamble.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think there's a slight chance someone like Martone or Hagens falls to 7th--not a good chance, but it's still probably within realistic bounds. I think at 9th, you're in that worst case scenario spot where even if a few teams up high take a McQueen, Desnoyers, or O'Brien early, you're still out of range of landing one of the "next tier" like Hagens or Martone. But like others have said, the real issue is that this team could've been sitting 4th or 5th.

I dunno. It is what it is. I'm not like, livid or anything (buddy I can't muster anything but borderline apathy with this dogshit org anymore lol), but it's tough not to be a little annoyed by this self inflicted bullshit, year after year. We're nearly a decade removed from the last playoff round win. It's damn likely we don't see Sid play playoff hockey again, and if we do, it'll be a "thanks for showing up, enjoy golfing in a week" appearance. We have a loser coach who simply cannot be held accountable for his role in the decline, because ownership and Sid love him. We had years of JR chasing 3rd liners and paying 1st liner prices. We had whatever the f*** Hextall did while he was here. Now we've got Dubas/FSG doing more of this "we're still gonna try and compete with Sid" PR-speak trash while they hover around the bottom of the league, refusing to accept reality and do what needs to be done to try and mitigate the misery of the post-Sid years.

You trade Rakell at the TDL for a 1st+prospect, you trade Rust once the FA dust settles and his NTC drops off, you trade EK once his bonus has been payed--this team could pretty realistically be looking at like Martone this draft and McKenna next. I know, I know "they're not centers or RHD!" That's still an exceptional haul for a team like the Pens.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

develop that player.

Welp.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Every draft has a different down tick in talent. The perception is that the top 7-8 were a solid step or two above the rest. We happen to pick right after that cutoff. We're still gonna get a good player, but maybe not a future piece in the core.

And every year some dude falls because of injury or there is a surprise in the top 10. I can almost guarantee one of those 8 guys you have in your head, will be there.

And truthfully you just never know who or what you are getting when you draft. Capitals got Leonard at 8 (although his results in his first 10ish NHL games are ugly).

I just think it is pointless to sit around and fret about something you don’t have control over and could potentially end up positively either way.

 

[Ugene Magic]

2015 - Rantantan was taken 10th after Meier
2016 - Charlie McAvoy was 14th and Jakob Chychrun was 16th
2017 - Necas was 12th and Nick Suzuki 13th. Robert Thomas was 20th.
2018 - Bouchard was 10th. K'Andre Miller 22nd
2019 - Matt Boldy was 12th, Cole Caufield 15th
2020 - Perfetti 10th. Lundell 12th.

Just a sampling.

The talent is there. You just need to make the right selection and then develop that player.

I have a fear that our GM is incapable of making such a selection.

I fear the reaching. All the players they talked about being interested in being gone at that point.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Here are the 4/5 pics vs 9/10 for the "4th pick can't be franchise-altering" heroes.

2024:
Cayden Lindstrom/Ivan Demidov vs Zayne Parekh/Anton Silayev

2023:
William Smith/David Reinbacher vs Nate Danielson/Dalibor Dvorsky
*7th Matvei Michkov

2022:
Shane Wright/Cutter Gauthier vs Matthew Savoie/Pavel Mintyukov

2021:
Luke Hughes/Kent Johnson vs Dylan Guenther/Tyler Boucher
*7th William Eklund

2020:
Lucas Raymond/Jake Sanderson vs Marco Rossi/Cole Perfetti

2019:
Bowen Byram/Alex Turcotte vs Trevor Zegras/Vasili Podkolzin
*6th Moritz Seider

2018:
Brady Tkachuk/Barrett Hayton vs Vitali Kravtsov/Evan Bouchard
*7th Quinn Hughes

2017:
Cale Makar/Elias Pettersson vs Michael Rasmussen/Owen Tippett

2016:
Jesse Puljujarvi/Olli Juolevi vs Mikhail Sergachev/Tyson Jost
*6th Matthew Tkachuk/7thClayton Keller

2015:
Mitch Marner/Noah Hanifin vs Timo Meier/Mikko Rantanen
*8thZach Werenski

2014:
Sam Bennett/Michael Dal Colle vs Nikolaj Ehlers/Nick Ritchie
*8th William Nylander


Just admit that you're wrong and move on.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think you can reasonably acknowledge that the Penguins would have been better off picking #4/5 while also not going to insane hysteria levels about it like saying that they've made a "franchise altering mistake" by not losing a couple of more games to end up picking #4/5.

I was very vocal about Martone over Eklund yesterday, and I don't think anyone should argue that Martone is simply a better prospect than Eklund. But if those guys hit their upside, you're talking about Brady Tkachuk vs William Nylander. Neither of those guys is going to impact a franchise larger than the other one would. Schaefer and Misa definitely have that upside to have that massive franchise impact, but that's really about it in this draft.

That said, a lot depends on who they can actually get at #9. I really like Eklund, so I have no concerns if that's who they end up getting with their 1st. If it's Desnoyers or Martin? That changes things. I like what I've seen from those two, but it's very reasonable to question their upside IMO.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Here are the 4/5 pics vs 9/10 for the "4th pick can't be franchise-altering" heroes.

2024:
Cayden Lindstrom/Ivan Demidov vs Zayne Parekh/Anton Silayev

2023:
William Smith/David Reinbacher vs Nate Danielson/Dalibor Dvorsky
*7th Matvei Michkov

2022:
Shane Wright/Cutter Gauthier vs Matthew Savoie/Pavel Mintyukov

2021:
Luke Hughes/Kent Johnson vs Dylan Guenther/Tyler Boucher
*7th William Eklund

2020:
Lucas Raymond/Jake Sanderson vs Marco Rossi/Cole Perfetti

2019:
Bowen Byram/Alex Turcotte vs Trevor Zegras/Vasili Podkolzin
*6th Moritz Seider

2018:
Brady Tkachuk/Barrett Hayton vs Vitali Kravtsov/Evan Bouchard
*7th Quinn Hughes

2017:
Cale Makar/Elias Pettersson vs Michael Rasmussen/Owen Tippett

2016:
Jesse Puljujarvi/Olli Juolevi vs Mikhail Sergachev/Tyson Jost
*6th Matthew Tkachuk/7thClayton Keller

2015:
Mitch Marner/Noah Hanifin vs Timo Meier/Mikko Rantanen
*8thZach Werenski

2014:
Sam Bennett/Michael Dal Colle vs Nikolaj Ehlers/Nick Ritchie
*8th William Nylander


Just admit that you're wrong and move on.

It's hilarious that you posted a list that has an overwhelming majority of #4/5 picks not being "franchise altering" players and somehow act like you're right because of it.

 

[DesertedPenguin]

I have a fear that our GM is incapable of making such a selection.

I fear the reaching. All the players they talked about being interested in being gone at that point.

This GM acquired Koivunen and McGroarty, drafted Yager, Pieniniemi, Brunicke, and Howe, all of whom look promising. Even late round picks like Vaisanen and Harding are performing above expectations with a long way to go.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Ah well, onto the lotto.

Here's to another 5 months of your random HFBoards poster throwing together ambitious plans to try and save this team from its incessant need to be in no man's land, only for October to roll around and the same loser coach to be behind the bench, and the roster being largely unchanged.