Prospect Info: Draft 2025: Is it too late to tank? Asking for a friend

I think you're getting worked up over nothing. It's almost a guarantee that the top-8 that you're referring to won't be the top-8 in the draft. There will be draft surprises and guys rising/falling, it's not going to go exactly like how draft rankings in April say they will go.
Who's worked up? I'm simply putting out the numbers.

Would you be happy with Mrtka? How about if Martone did drop to 6 or 7?
 
Who's worked up? I'm simply putting out the numbers.

Would you be happy with Mrtka? How about if Martone did drop to 6 or 7?

Again, there will likely be risers and fallers in the draft that aren't being projected at the time of the draft. Senecke was the 13th ranked NA skater last year and went #3 overall this year. There is a lot of uncertainty with how this draft actually goes because it's a pretty weak class without a ton of separation on the players after Schaefer and Misa.

They're currently sitting at #8 and it's most likely their pick ends up #8. It is very likely that one of the guys that this board has been advocating for (namely Eklund, who I think is at risk of falling out of the top-10) will be available with that pick. And it's entirely possible that Dubas passes up on that one guy for another guy he likes more.

If this team is taking Mrtka, that means they've scouted him a ton and really like him. So why should my stat watching of his time in the WHL (which does look pretty damn good) count for more than that?
 
If we draft 8th or higher, I believe we will be getting a good player. After 2, it's about the same caliber of player.

Pronman has updated his rankings. His Top 11 are considered "top of the lineup players," while his Top 5 are considered all-star caliber.

Those 11 players are:
Schaefer
Misa
Desnoyers
Hagens
Martone
Frondell
O'Brien
Eklund
McQueen
Aitcheson
Smith

Final rankings should be coming soon from a lot of sources. Again, we see Martone drop a smidge but I think the real story there is Desnoyers catapulting up to 3rd. I could be all wet here, but I just have trouble seeing Nashville (presumably, but really, whoever is at 3ov) taking a QMJHL center over the others on the board there, specifically Hagens, Frondell, and Martone. I tend to believe that the QMJHL is the weakest of the CHL leagues and I'm not convinced he's dominated that league to the extent that erases that bias. I think he's a strong candidate for 5/6/7.
 
If this team is taking Mrtka, that means they've scouted him a ton and really like him. So why should my stat watching of his time in the WHL (which does look pretty damn good) count for more than that?
Or it means he's the highest left on their board after the 8 listed have been chosen.

And again, if Martone is a faller and ends up being taken outside the top 5, its salt in the wound.

None of this is a "disaster" or whatever alarmist word someone would want to use to make a reasonable counter viewpoint cartoonishly overblown, but it would be an underwhelming punctuation to a frustrating season.
 
Or it means he's the highest left on their board after the 8 listed have been chosen.

And again, if Martone is a faller and ends up being taken outside the top 5, its salt in the wound.

None of this is a "disaster" or whatever alarmist word someone would want to use to make a reasonable counter viewpoint cartoonishly overblown, but it would be an underwhelming punctuation to a frustrating season.

Which is very unlikely, because once again the top-8 guys you like are very likely not going to be the top-8 guys taken in the draft.
 
This is how McKenzie did last year with his top half of the 1st round:

1. Celebrini (#1)
2. Demidov (#5)
3. Levshunov (#2)
4. Silayev (#10)
5. Lidstrom (#4)
6. Dickinson (#11)
7. Buium (#12)
8. Parekh (#9)
9. Helenius (#14)
10. Iginla (#6)
11. Sennecke (#3)
12. Catton (#8)
13. Yakemchuk (#7)
14. Eiserman (#20)
15. Connelly (#19)

McKenzie almost nailed the top-15 in the draft, he went 13/15 with missing out on Brandsegg-Nygard (#17, went #15)) and Luchanko (#19, went #13). And at that point, I think it's even cherrypicking to say he was "wrong" there. The prospects at that level are mostly the same caliber.

But that said, he only went 4/8 with the guys who went in the top-8, where guys ranked #10, #11, #12 and #13 finished in the top-8 while guys ranked #4, #6, #7 and #8 didn't finish in the top-8. Even with McKenzie having almost as good of a draft projection as you can get, he still only went 50% in the top-8.

That's why I think it's needless to worry about whether their pick is #8 and if they'll miss out on the top-8. Most likely, 2-4 guys in the top-8 will slide to the 9-14 range while 2-4 guys in the 9-14 range will jump into the top-8. And it's entirely possible Dubas is one of the guys that is doing that.
 
This is how McKenzie did last year with his top half of the 1st round:

1. Celebrini (#1)
2. Demidov (#5)
3. Levshunov (#2)
4. Silayev (#10)
5. Lidstrom (#4)
6. Dickinson (#11)
7. Buium (#12)
8. Parekh (#9)
9. Helenius (#14)
10. Iginla (#6)
11. Sennecke (#3)
12. Catton (#8)
13. Yakemchuk (#7)
14. Eiserman (#20)
15. Connelly (#19)

McKenzie almost nailed the top-15 in the draft, he went 13/15 with missing out on Brandsegg-Nygard (#17, went #15)) and Luchanko (#19, went #13). And at that point, I think it's even cherrypicking to say he was "wrong" there. The prospects at that level are mostly the same caliber.

But that said, he only went 4/8 with the guys who went in the top-8, where guys ranked #10, #11, #12 and #13 finished in the top-8 while guys ranked #4, #6, #7 and #8 didn't finish in the top-8. Even with McKenzie having almost as good of a draft projection as you can get, he still only went 50% in the top-8.

That's why I think it's needless to worry about whether their pick is #8 and if they'll miss out on the top-8. Most likely, 2-4 guys in the top-8 will slide to the 9-14 range while 2-4 guys in the 9-14 range will jump into the top-8. And it's entirely possible Dubas is one of the guys that is doing that.
Mackenzie doesn't do a mock draft. He asks scouts for their rankings and summarizes the results. So he's a very good source for best player available, but he basically doesn't put any stock in the order of the teams picking or what those teams need.
 
I think you're getting worked up over nothing. It's almost a guarantee that the top-8 that you're referring to won't be the top-8 in the draft. There will be draft surprises and guys rising/falling, it's not going to go exactly like how draft rankings in April say they will go.
I’m going to give you a little nugget of wisdom about the draft process. You always want to draft higher so you can pick who you want
 
Mackenzie doesn't do a mock draft. He asks scouts for their rankings and summarizes the results. So he's a very good source for best player available, but he basically doesn't put any stock in the order of the teams picking or what those teams need.

A majority of NHL teams draft based on best player available, not on need.

I’m going to give you a little nugget of wisdom about the draft process. You always want to draft higher so you can pick who you want

Amazing contribution, thank you for adding it to the discussion.

The discussion was worrying about all of the top-8 going before the Penguins pick if they're picking at #9. I'm talking about how that is incredibly unlikely to happen.
 
You are forgetting there are 16 teams in the lottery and can only move up 10 spots.

That's 7 possible teams that have a chance to push the Pens back 2 spots.

I don't know why I put 12, I might have had the old system on my mind where there was a 3 lottery system.
i thought we can only drop 1 spot. how do you come up with 2 spots?
 
i thought we can only drop 1 spot. how do you come up with 2 spots?

There are draft lotteries for the #1 and #2 pick, two teams behind the Penguins can win that.

That said, it's extremely unlikely that happens. It's only about a 3% chance that 2 teams below the Penguins win the lottery. The Penguins are 4x as likely to win one of those two lotteries than that.
 
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We have a better chance at 1/2ov than dropping back 2 slots. If we wish at 8, it's a 80% chance at 8/9.

Given my rankings and who I want, I'd really like us to finish 7th.
 
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A majority of NHL teams draft based on best player available, not on need.
Amazing contribution, thank you for adding it to the discussion.

The discussion was worrying about all of the top-8 going before the Penguins pick if they're picking at #9. I'm talking about how that is incredibly unlikely to happen.
There's always a 5-12 upset.

Important to add that when you have a player that unexpectedly rises (or drops), it's quite the domino and ripple effect. Given there are 32 teams who likely have 32 different lists and rankings, predicting the actual order is an absolute crapshoot. Which is why I focus on "I believe this group of guys will likely be there" where I'm good with any of the 3-4.
 
Eklund and Frondell are running amok on AIK right now. They've had a few quality chances from just obliterating people along the boards and creating chaos. Also forechecking, Frondell just set-up Eklund from creating a turnover behind the net on a forechecking effort. Really impressive showing for them at 5v5 and their TOI has been getting a bump since Game 6 of the last round.
 
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We have a better chance at 1/2ov than dropping back 2 slots. If we wish at 8, it's a 80% chance at 8/9.

Given my rankings and who I want, I'd really like us to finish 7th.
This is outdated as Boston is well below us. 8th is unlikely but not impossible. Regardless as to what's being said here 9th is not where we wanna be. Too much sugar coating going on.
 
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I’m going to give you a little nugget of wisdom about the draft process. You always want to draft higher so you can pick who you want
Some people around here don't seem to get that. They're laying down foundations for a false narrative as if 6th and 9th are the same. they are not. This draft has EIGHT really good players according to most in the know, NOT nine. Maybe one slips, maybe not, but it's certainly (at best) a precarious position to be in. And it could have been avoided. PIT had to go out of their way to not be in the top six!
 
Some people around here don't seem to get that. They're laying down foundations for a false narrative as if 6th and 9th are the same. they are not. This draft has EIGHT really good players according to most in the know, NOT nine. Maybe one slips, maybe not, but it's certainly (at best) a precarious position to be in. And it could have been avoided. PIT had to go out of their way to not be in the top six!
We get it. We are all upset they won down the stretch. It's going to be okay. Relax.
 
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Some people around here don't seem to get that. They're laying down foundations for a false narrative as if 6th and 9th are the same. they are not. This draft has EIGHT really good players according to most in the know, NOT nine. Maybe one slips, maybe not, but it's certainly (at best) a precarious position to be in. And it could have been avoided. PIT had to go out of their way to not be in the top six!
They might be the same. Honestly they might want Eklund at #4 and he might be available at #10 and they wouldn't risk trading down for him even if they were #4. My problem is assuming that there's no difference between the picks is foolish. They're very well could be a massive difference. Maybe if they got #7 from Carolina in the Staal trade in 2012 they would have drafted a quality player in Dumba instead of a bust in Pouliot. And there's countless cases like that every draft year. Unequivocally it is superior to be earlier with more options than later with fewer options.
 
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