Prospect Info: Draft 2025: Is it too late to tank? Asking for a friend

Crosby has to want to sit. You think an ultracompetitive Hall of Famer is going to be OK with not playing when he's healthy?
Always remember EVERYTHING MUST revolve around Sid. Keeping Sullivan, check, winning meaningless games, check, being perpetually mediocre, check!
 
They could start NED in goal however but I doubt they even do that. Lotta sick ppl who wanna win meaningless games.
I don't think any fans want us to win these games but bitching about the players and coaches trying hard is just silly.

If you want to rage at someone point that at Dubas. He could have gutted the roster more than he did at the deadline and that's probably worth a few losses. But he didn't. The players/coaches are always gonna try to win. That's their job.
Crosby has to want to sit. You think an ultracompetitive Hall of Famer is going to be OK with not playing when he's healthy?
Yeah that's not happening.
 
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I don't think any fans want us to win these games but bitching about the players and coaches trying hard is just silly.

If you want to rage at someone point that at Dubas. He could have gutted the roster more than he did at the deadline and that's probably worth a few losses. But he didn't. The players/coaches are always gonna try to win. That's their job.

Yeah that's not happening.
Oh, I've railed against Kyle also. Dontcha worried about that son, I've done so. Lots of blame to be had by all!
 
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I don’t think anyone healthy at this time of year. They’re sitting Ovechkin in a meaningless game, they can do the same with Sid.
That would make too much sense.

Problem is the puck bunnies and the fanbois would cry if they didn't get to see their favorite athlete (ever) NOT compete in meaningless games. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhh here come da tears. Waaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh:cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry::cry:
 
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I don’t think anyone healthy at this time of year. They’re sitting Ovechkin in a meaningless game, they can do the same with Sid.
That's not remotely the same. Ovechkin is sitting to rest for a playoff run. Sid sitting while being healthy would be basically telling him they want to lose and it's just not a realistic expectation.
Also what’s the point of not calling up Larsson to give him a game or two? Nothing to lose, great way to evaluate him.
That's not a bad idea. I think they're probably hoping to repair Jarry's value/confidence somewhat with this last stretch. But I doubt any trade partner is going to be fooled by what he's doing now. Maybe the best that the Pens can hope for is Jarry carries this play into next season which buys time for Murashov/Blomqvist to get more AHL games and then the season after that the Pens move on from TJ.
 
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I think the situations are pretty similar. They’re sitting Ovechkin in a meaningless game to keep him as healthy as possible. The same would be true for Sid. An injury at this time of year can derail your offseason training, which can then set you back next season. You don’t even have to bring up the standings or draft picks.

I mean the worst case scenario is a torn ACL or concussion in a meaningless game. That’s career-impacting, possibly career-ending.
 
The NHL has had a weighted draft lottery in one form or another since 2013. They've changed the number of lottery picks and the weighting of winning one of those picks multiple times.

ONE LOTTERY PICK
2013 - Colorado went from #2 to #1
2014 - Florida went from #2 to #1
2015 - Edmonton went from #3 to #1

MOVE TO THREE LOTTERY PICKS
2016 - Columbus went from #4 to #3, Winnipeg went from #6 to #2, Toronto stayed #1
2017 - Dallas went from #8 to #3, Philly went from #13 to #2, NJ went from #5 to #1
2018 - Montreal went from #4 to #3, Carolina went from #11 to #2, and Buffalo stayed #1
2019 - Chicago went from #12 to #3, NYR went from #6 to #2, NJ went from #3 to #1

WEIRD COVID DRAFT
2020 - San Jose stayed at #3, LAK went from #4 to #2, NYR went from #10 to #1

DOWN TO TWO LOTTERY PICKS
2021 - Seattle went from #3 to #2, Buffalo stayed #1

CURRENT TWO LOTTERY PICK SYSTEM, LIMITS ON MOVEMENT/NUMBER OF WINS
2022 - NJ went from #5 to #2, Montreal stayed #1
2023 - Chicago went from #3 to #1, Anaheim "won" and dropped to #2 from #1
2024 - Chicago stayed #2, San Jose stayed #1

Outside of a couple weird years with the three lottery pick system, teams outside of the Top 5 don't win the lottery, and teams outside of the top three are exceptions to the rule. It is a pure fantasy that the Penguins were going to finish as one of the three worst teams this year - they were never going to be as bad as Chicago, Anaheim, or even Nashville.

The Penguins won't get a No. 1 overall pick as long as Crosby is on this team.
 
I think the situations are pretty similar. They’re sitting Ovechkin in a meaningless game to keep him as healthy as possible. The same would be true for Sid. An injury at this time of year can derail your offseason training, which can then set you back next season. You don’t even have to bring up the standings or draft picks.

I mean the worst case scenario is a torn ACL or concussion in a meaningless game. That’s career-impacting, possibly career-ending.
They could try and sell him on that but I doubt he'd agree with that logic and then what? They're not going to force him sit and piss him off.
 
I think the situations are pretty similar. They’re sitting Ovechkin in a meaningless game to keep him as healthy as possible. The same would be true for Sid. An injury at this time of year can derail your offseason training, which can then set you back next season. You don’t even have to bring up the standings or draft picks.

I mean the worst case scenario is a torn ACL or concussion in a meaningless game. That’s career-impacting, possibly career-ending.
My angst is two fold. 1st, calling up the kids that gave this team an unnecessary spark after the BUF game, that's 100% on Dubas! If that didn't happen we'd be 6-8th no worse. If we traded Rakell we'd likely be between 5-7th.

The other issue is this: It's not even trying to lose, although that'd be great. It's going out of your way to win AT ALL COSTS in games that help us in no way possible.
 
The NHL has had a weighted draft lottery in one form or another since 2013. They've changed the number of lottery picks and the weighting of winning one of those picks multiple times.

The Penguins won't get a No. 1 overall pick as long as Crosby is on this team.
Finishing 5th would get you an 8.5% chance which is nothing to sneeze at. 9th gets you 5% which is also still not terrible. Unlikely, sure, but not completely out of the question.

Anything below 9th seems very unlikely as from 9th-->10th it drops to 3.5% and keeps getting worse from there.
 
The Pens were never going to out tank the likes of Chicago or San Jose with Sidney Crosby on the roster.

Had Dubas gutted the roster more at the deadline by trading Rakell then maybe they could have had a few more losses though, which could have meant the difference between like 5th overall and 8th overall. Maybe that's significant. I kinda doubt it. I think that only ends up mattering if the 5th overall or so slot wins the lottery. Otherwise I don't personally see a big difference between picking 5th or picking 8th. The Pens should get a similar quality prospect either way.

Now if the Pens actually win out and pick like 11th or 12th or something that would be pretty tragic as based on what I've read of this draft you want to be in that top 8 or so. But they say that shit about every f-ing draft so at the end of the day whatever. Call it copium if you will but I think the Pens should be able to find a quality player whether they end up picking 12th or 8th or wherever. If you get into that top 15 you should be able to find somebody or your scouts are dog shit.
Nobody said they were gonna out tank the Hawks or Sharks, that's dumb. The point all season once the team faltered badly before Christmas was to get into the top 4 to land one of the guys everyone says is a clear cut above the rest in the draft. That was easily within reach, they were sitting 4th or 5th at the TDL.

There's a huge difference between sitting 5th and sitting 8th, and it's disingenuous to say otherwise imo. Sitting 5th allows you to snag a guy like Hagens or Martone if a team in the top 4 goes for someone like Frondell or Desnoyers cuz they're centers, or McQueen because of his size or whatever. Sitting 8th you're probably shit outta luck even if a multiple teams above you make reach picks.

It's wild to me that people aren't more annoyed about yet another miserable season where the only silver lining was being in position to snag the best prospect on paper they've had in 20 years. Sure, they could still move up with the lotto and they'll get a decent prospect at 8th, but for the past 12 months every prospect hawk has said it's top 4 then a big drop off, arguably 5 with Frondell.

This team had the opportunity to come outta this season accomplishing three very important things; getting value for Petts (success), getting value for Rakell when his value was higher than it'll likely ever be (fail), and settling into a top 5 pick and landing the best prospect they've selected since Staal in 2006 (not looking good). That sucks. But we'll always have these 4-2 wins in mid-April to remember, potentially adding a guy like Martone or Hagens isn't nearly as important as Sid getting a few garbage points. :laugh:
Buffalo up 1-0, they’ll jump the Penguins with a game in hand if they win tonight.

Really hoping the Rangers lose out and the Penguins end up with #7 and #10 picks.
I have a feeling the Rangers are keeping the pick unless they're forced to hand it over. They don't seem like the kinda organization/owner to essentially say publicly that they can't risk leaving next year's pick unprotected because the team may be just as bad or worse.
 
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As mentioned previously, where was this win at all costs mentality earlier in the season?

That's why it's so irritating. WIN when it ACTUALLY matters!
 
Finishing 5th would get you an 8.5% chance which is nothing to sneeze at. 9th gets you 5% which is also still not terrible. Unlikely, sure, but not completely out of the question.

Anything below 9th seems very unlikely as from 9th-->10th it drops to 3.5% and keeps getting worse from there.
I think pragmatism, not probability, needs to be the mindset. Yeah, you can hope something unexpected and unlikely happens with that 8.5% chance, but it's not wise to plan for that. There just seems to be this expectation that the Pens would have realistic chances to move up if they were 4th or 5th worst right now, and past results really don't bear that out.

If you want a chance at a No. 1 pick, you have to be willing to be the worst team in the NHL. And the Pens aren't going to do that with Crosby, understandably so.
 
I think pragmatism, not probability, needs to be the mindset. Yeah, you can hope something unexpected and unlikely happens with that 8.5% chance, but it's not wise to plan for that. There just seems to be this expectation that the Pens would have realistic chances to move up if they were 4th or 5th worst right now, and past results really don't bear that out.

If you want a chance at a No. 1 pick, you have to be willing to be the worst team in the NHL. And the Pens aren't going to do that with Crosby, understandably so.
We can still be in the lottery next year, maybe we'll have two Lottery picks next year if the Rags keep losing. Id be happy with a top five pick next year.
 

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