Prospect Info: Draft 2025: Is it too late to tank? Asking for a friend

[Empoleon8771]

I think the appeal with O'Brien is that he seems to have the highest upside of the guys projected to go in the 8-12 range, outside of maybe McQueen but McQueen's injury concerns are really scary. My hope in this draft would be Eklund at #7 and O'Brien at #9/10, which seems like a pretty realistic outcome for this draft. I don't see anyone at #9/10 that I think has a higher upside that I'd be comfortable with taking over O'Brien.

He seems pretty similar to Cody Glass as a prospect, which is absolutely why I can see why people would throw some cold water on him as a prospect. But I don't really see anyone else who you can argue to take over O'Brien at like #9 overall. If they're taking him with their 1st with Frondell or Eklund available, then yeah I think you can raise some questions then.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Sure it’s a fine outcome I just don’t see why we’re salivating over it

yall need to believe in the Hagens dream. Desnoyers and Frondell go high, a team reaches for a D and we’re in business.

 

[Turin]

Sure it’s a fine outcome I just don’t see why we’re salivating over it

yall need to believe in the Hagens dream. Desnoyers and Frondell go high, a team reaches for a D and we’re in business.

This team has only drafted high once in the last 20 years and it was gosh darn Derrick Pouliot, people are likely going to be way too hyped for whoever we take this year lol

 

[IcedCapp]

lots of examples of tons of teams passing on legit nhlers. Not like GMs are rocket surgeons.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

This team has only drafted high once in the last 20 years and it was gosh darn Derrick Pouliot, people are likely going to be way too hyped for whoever we take this year lol

“Yay we got a smaller Dylan Strome”

You’re right tho. I’m just hoping for Buium type fall for Martone or Hagens.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Sure it’s a fine outcome I just don’t see why we’re salivating over it

yall need to believe in the Hagens dream. Desnoyers and Frondell go high, a team reaches for a D and we’re in business.

I can't see any way that Hagens somehow slides past Boston at #3. Just can't see it.

Without any draft lottery wins, my expected top-8 right now is probably:

1. San Jose: Schaefer
2. Chicago: Misa
3. Nashville: Hagens
4. Boston: Martone
5. Philly: Desnoyers (brother connection)
6. Kraken: Frondell
7. Pittsburgh: Eklund
8. Buffalo: Mrtka (think they got based on NHL need with this pick)

Once you hit Anaheim at #9, I think it becomes a wildcard.

“Yay we got a smaller Dylan Strome”

You’re right tho. I’m just hoping for Buium type fall for Martone or Hagens.

I mean Dylan Strome is actually pretty good though.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I can't see any way that Hagens somehow slides past Boston at #3. Just can't see it.

Without any draft lottery wins, my expected top-8 right now is probably:

1. San Jose: Schaefer
2. Chicago: Misa
3. Nashville: Hagens
4. Boston: Martone
5. Philly: Desnoyers (brother connection)
6. Kraken: Frondell
7. Pittsburgh: Eklund
8. Buffalo: Mrtka (think they got based on NHL need with this pick)

Once you hit Anaheim at #9, I think it becomes a wildcard.

maybe. Maybe not. No one knows until draft day. That’s why it’s a dream.

I’m just arguing my dream is a lot cooler than your dream

 

[Turin]

“Yay we got a smaller Dylan Strome”

You’re right tho. I’m just hoping for Buium type fall for Martone or Hagens.

I would be surprised if Martone went lower than 3. Maybe 4 but NHL teams like size too much. Hagens could though.

 

[SEALBound]

The Rangers are in a bad way. This whole "I think they will be better next year" has very little merit. Nothing has looked good this season and they would have to have a hell of summer to turn this team around. This also isn't just this season, there were major issues last season around mid way through. People forget because they turned it on down the stretch. The division is tougher and their one major hope is that Igor doesn't regress or worse, gets injured. This team isn't great.

Taking the 10th overall pick would be such a mistake on their part. It would be different if Gavin Mckenna wasn't the prize in 2026, but since he is, the Rangers have no choice but to give up their pick this year. Otherwise, they will literally be sweating all of next year.

Great spot for the Pens. I think the Rangers make the wrong decision no matter what they choose which I love.

I'm not THAT down on them.

Guy like Zibs can easily bounce back. Sometimes guys will have bad seasons. Panarin is Panarin and Miller is Miller. To boot, they can add the likes of Perrault, Othmann and Brisson in addition to current crop of young guys like Edstrom and Cuylle. They also have Jones and Robertson on the backend who could be getting more of a chance. Then they are still back by Shesterkin in net.

I mean, they can still add a lot of young talent to improve. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that they will worse. I don't think they would have traded for Miller had they thought that.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I would be surprised if Martone went lower than 3. Maybe 4 but NHL teams like size too much. Hagens could though.

I think Hagens could drop bc of size, Martone bc of position since you’re talking about Desnoyers, Frondell in similar range.

But I feel like usually guys drop not really because of their own play but because a team really locks in on their guy

So all it really takes is a few teams to love a couple guys from the Desnoyers, Frondell, Smith, Mrtka, McQueen group where they bring attributes NHL teams value and think they have to get from the draft because you can’t really trade for 6’2 200 ft Cs, 6’5 RHS forwards, etc.

In all honesty though I’m being wishful. I have Hagens right there with Misa. If we won the 2nd pick I’d really debate the two of them hard. He’s really good, the purest center in the class in playstyle and probably goes 3rd. But I hope he does drop to us. Same with Martone.

 

[Empoleon8771]

My dream scenario:

1. Penguins win the lottery to pick #2
2. Rangers finish with the #10 pick in the draft and give it to the Penguins
3. Penguins trade up from #10 to #7 with using some of their excess of picks
4. Take Misa and Eklund at #2 and #7

 

[IcedCapp]

My dream scenario:

1. Penguins win the lottery to pick #2
2. Rangers finish with the #10 pick in the draft and give it to the Penguins
3. Penguins trade up from #10 to #7 with using some of their excess of picks
4. Take Misa and Eklund at #2 and #7

You have a dream scenario that doesn’t have us pick #1?

Dream better….

 

[Empoleon8771]

You have a dream scenario that doesn’t have us pick #1?

Dream better….

This is going to sound weird, but I don't think you can justify passing up on Schaefer at #1 and I'd rather add Misa to the pool than Schaefer just because of how this team is built.

Probably a silly mindset to have, but I think I want Misa and just don't want to be the team that passes up on Schaefer to draft Misa.

 

[IcedCapp]

This is going to sound weird, but I don't think you can justify passing up on Schaefer at #1 and I'd rather add Misa to the pool than Schaefer just because of how this team is built.

Probably a silly mindset to have, but I think I want Misa and just don't want to be the team that passes up on Schaefer to draft Misa.

You wouldn’t want to get 1, trade down for an extra pick and still get your guy?

 

[eXile3]

This team has only drafted high once in the last 20 years and it was gosh darn Derrick Pouliot, people are likely going to be way too hyped for whoever we take this year lol

I remember that was in Pittsburgh and being in the stadium when they made the pick. I couldn’t believe they didn’t pick Forsberg

 

[Empoleon8771]

You wouldn’t want to get 1, trade down for an extra pick and still get your guy?

I mean sure, yeah if you can do that I'd have no complaints.

My point was more that I'd rather be sitting at #2 and take Misa over sitting at #1 and having to justify taking Misa over Schaefer. But getting #1 and trading down to #2, sure I'd have no issues there.

 

[IcedCapp]

I mean sure, yeah if you can do that I'd have no complaints.

My point was more that I'd rather be sitting at #2 and take Misa over sitting at #1 and having to justify taking Misa over Schaefer. But getting #1 and trading down to #2, sure I'd have no issues there.

I actually understand your reasoning, I just think our dreams and fantasies need to be more grandiose

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I just think to play in the NHL while not being an *elite* talent, which just won't be available at 7OA, you need to be able to earn any coach's trust and play regular minutes in a system and contribute every shift, and not just provide offense. There will be times for any player where the offense just isn't coming, even for an O'Brien or Eklund, and teams won't have patience for that. That's not a Sullivan thing that's an NHL thing.

And then I look at his trajectory from OHL year 1 to 2 and the improvement he made it just seems almost exponential compared to other players ranked in the same area. It's almost unsustainable and you'd kind of expect a lull next year, but if he doesn't, he could hit 40-50 goals in his D+1 season. And that's while playing a physical and responsible game. I'm not saying I'd pick him at 7 but I'd consider it and I could see the Pens doing it.

sure but tbh not really interested in drafting for who could score 40-50 goals in the OHL in their D+1/who could earn a coaches trust. Just want the guys who will be the best players in 5 years.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah I think this was an argument someone brought up a bit ago on how the Penguins have historically had success, the argument was that the Penguins have always succeeded with focusing on their forwards rather than defensemen. The Penguins teams never had "bad" defenses when they were winning championships, but they were always built on the foundation of top forward talent. Just from how this team has had its past success, it doesn't feel like quite right to draft Schaefer as your next franchise centerpiece.

The issue is that Schaefer is pretty universally considered the best prospect in this draft, so I don't see how you can rationalize on not taking him if you're picking #1. I'd rather get the forwards and goaltending figured out and build the defense after, because that's basically how the Penguins have won their 5 cups in the past 35 years.

This isn't saying I'd be at all mad about taking Schaefer, the dude is clearly the #1 talent in this draft with Heiskanen caliber upside. It would just make me a bit uncomfortable deviating from how the past cup winning Penguins teams have been built.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Past results are not indicative of future returns

 

[chrisp200]

I'm not THAT down on them.

Guy like Zibs can easily bounce back. Sometimes guys will have bad seasons. Panarin is Panarin and Miller is Miller. To boot, they can add the likes of Perrault, Othmann and Brisson in addition to current crop of young guys like Edstrom and Cuylle. They also have Jones and Robertson on the backend who could be getting more of a chance. Then they are still back by Shesterkin in net.

I mean, they can still add a lot of young talent to improve. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that they will worse. I don't think they would have traded for Miller had they thought that.

I'm not saying it's forgone conclusion that they will be as bad or worse next year, but it certainly isn't a 100% that they are better either. It's probably a 60/40 whatever way you want to lean into it. And again, when you are talking about handing a possible generational player to a division rival, as an organization you can't take that risk to draft some kid at #10.

 

[Jacob]

sure but tbh not really interested in drafting for who could score 40-50 goals in the OHL in their D+1/who could earn a coaches trust. Just want the guys who will be the best players in 5 years.

What I'm saying is precisely the type of player he is might make him the best player in 5 years. Sort of like a Ladd vs. Schremp thing.

 

[Jacob]

If the Rangers bet on being better next year, maybe there's some team that picks in the top-15 this year that doesn't think so? We could flip the Rangers pick next year to a team that has a pick in the 12-15 range this year, or anywhere else, if they want to take a gamble that next year's draft is deeper or the Rangers pick will be lower. Montreal for example has 2 mid-1st picks, maybe they swap one for the Rangers pick. Columbus has 2 as well.

And the reason we do it is because we're trying to do a quick turn-around and don't want to wait until next year to pick. Which is at least a small reason why we flipped Yager for McGroarty; McGroarty was closer.

I'm also just assuming we will get other 1sts next year via trading Rakell or Rust.

 

[Pancakes]

lots of examples of tons of teams passing on legit nhlers. Not like GMs are rocket surgeons.

The draft reminds me of interviewing. Every company is convinced they have the perfect process to figure out how to find good candidates and the truth is nobody has any f-ing idea what they're doing. I've seen people who aren't the greatest interviewees who end up being strong workers and vice versa.

Nobody has any clue, but they like to think they have it figured out.

 

[Jesse]

IMO his hands are pretty good. He’s very skilled. Iirc most completed dekes in the OHL this season.

His first few steps and overall heaviness to his skating worry me. Even tho the skating is probably good. He also truly seems like completely filled out. Which obviously isn’t true but I question how much physical runway he has left.

Yet another guy I think is more of a 15-25 guy in other drafts but ends up discussed in the 6-12 range because of the (seemingly) dearth of talent in that range.

His hands are definitely good. No argument there. I just don't know that they're productive. He chains a lot of things together, so not surprised to hear about the completed dekes part. I think he just works himself into a ton of trouble that way. It's like watching the Tasmanian devil.