Prospect Info: Draft 2025: Is it too late to tank? Asking for a friend

[Jacob]

Just wait a year and get Howard for free.

 

[Jared Grayden]

I've also said numerous times that I don't think the Rangers will be bad next year, so to me that's like pick #20 in 2026 for Howard.

It's a huge gamble that Dubas should get fired over if he gets it wrong. Not convinced Dubas has as much autonomy as some think he does so FSG might not even allow that deal either.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I've also said numerous times that I don't think the Rangers will be bad next year, so to me that's like pick #20 in 2026 for Howard.

I agree but it’s not set in stone.

of all the players to trade that pick for? Howard isn’t the guy. And I really like him. But end of the day he’s a small floaty trigger man. There’s a solid chance that even if he’s a perennial 20 goal guy in the league he’s not the most valuable piece.

So sure- pick 20 in 2026 for Howard is fair but

a) youre gonna get a similar caliber prospect if that’s where that pick ends up in 2026 by keeping and using it. Also they’ll be 4 years younger.

b) that pick could be like 8OA, 12OA, etc.

Feel like the trade is mostly downside with not that much upside.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Put it this way - only way we get out of the gutter quick is lottery luck and draft luck.

I’m not throwing away one of our few tickets to get lucky with — unless the trade is so stupidly slanted our way not to do so. Odds today are that in 2032 your idea of moving that pick for Howard was the right move. But we kinda are in a spot where it’s better to try to hit a home run or strike out trying. Singles and doubles aren’t doing much.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I don't think the Rangers are gonna be dramatically better. That team's aging out, their depth sucks shit, Shesterkin and Lafreniere's raises kick in. Even if they replace Laviolette, who I think has been overrated for a really long time, there's a whole lot of other problems that need addressed.

If that team sorts its shit out and the water level evens out, that's still like a 20th overall pick. Not spectacular, but an asset you can use to make the pick for more shots at hitting via the draft, or in a trade for a young player that's on the block a la Peterka or something. If the Rangers don't sort their shit out and continue to decline, you could pretty easily have a top 5 pick of your own and another top 10 pick with the Rangers' pick. If Shesterkin has a significant injury, that team's f***ing cooked, and you could have two top 5 picks and shots at McKenna in the lotto. That's a situation that could potentially alter this organization's trajectory for 20 years.

 

[JackFr]

Yeah ultimately that pick is just too high-ceiling to risk on a guy who isn't a sure thing.

That said, people keep telling me the Rangers are going to hand us the #10 overall pick this year so who knows if we'll even have that choice to make.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yeah ultimately that pick is just too high-ceiling to risk on a guy who isn't a sure thing.

That said, people keep telling me the Rangers are going to hand us the #10 overall pick this year so who knows if we'll even have that choice to make.

Brooks said in an article that the Rangers were going to keep that pick if it's #13 or better, so I'm not expecting it. But I think we've heard so much smoke both ways (@IcedCapp mentioned he has heard similar) that I don't think it's a given.

With the Rangers continuing to lose and sitting in the #10 spot, I'd be extremely happy if they actually gave their 1st this year. It's even possible that pick ends up #8 or #9 as well, they're barely above the Sabres and Ducks in the standings right now and both of those teams have been hot recently.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If the Penguins come out of this draft with Eklund with their own 1st and O'Brien with the Rangers 1st, I'm going to go full Jason Russell in downtown San Diego

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/jason-russell-san-diego-invisible-children-kony-2012/1948414/

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Yeah ultimately that pick is just too high-ceiling to risk on a guy who isn't a sure thing.

That said, people keep telling me the Rangers are going to hand us the #10 overall pick this year so who knows if we'll even have that choice to make.

Says a lot about how teams view this draft if the bolded is true

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

The way the Rags are going, I honestly also believe they would rather give up the 1st this year than take a chance for next year's draft with a much deeper class as they're predicting

 

[Turin]

If you’re the Rangers it makes very little sense to differ the pick to next season unless they’re drafting like top 5. Either you’re bad next season in a better draft with a generational 1st overall, or you’re better next season in which you’re less worried about the future anyway because something broke right for you.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

If you’re the Rangers it makes very little sense to differ the pick to next season unless they’re drafting like top 5. Either you’re bad next season in a better draft with a generational 1st overall, or you’re better next season in which you’re less worried about the future anyway because something broke right for you.

They have until 48 hours before, I honestly think it’ll come down to how they think the board will fall. There’s probably guys they’d keep it for and guys they wouldn’t.

 

[chrisp200]

If the Rangers have the 8th overall or worse this year and they keep the pick, that it is really bad GMing. The 6-7 spot is much tougher decision for them. Top 5 (which can only be top 2 for them) and they have to take pick.

There is literally no reason for them to risk taking a player this year if they truly think they can be competitive now. They can not risk giving up even a 5% chance at Gavin next year, especially to a division rival.

I keep hearing people saying they will be better next year, I don't see it. They have a ton of question marks, aging players, underperforming young players, and a division that seems to be getting tougher . Could they rebound, maybe. But, it's also just as likely they stay where they are or are worse.

If I'm the Rangers GM, I give the Penguins this years pick assuming its #8 or worse, then you play next year by ear. if halfway through the season you see nothing that makes you think the team can win, then you do everything you can to sell off and be as bad you can to have the best chance at Gavin.

I will actually laugh if they have the 11th pick and actually use it this year. Pure incompetency if they do that.

Penguins win either way. This is a lose lose spot for the Rangers and a win win for a Penguins. I don't understand the people who have been rooting for the Rangers to finish 14th, 15th, 16th ect... That was always the worst possible outcome.

 

[IcedCapp]

Brooks said in an article that the Rangers were going to keep that pick if it's #13 or better, so I'm not expecting it. But I think we've heard so much smoke both ways (@IcedCapp mentioned he has heard similar) that I don't think it's a given.

With the Rangers continuing to lose and sitting in the #10 spot, I'd be extremely happy if they actually gave their 1st this year. It's even possible that pick ends up #8 or #9 as well, they're barely above the Sabres and Ducks in the standings right now and both of those teams have been hot recently.

I go back and forth on this every time I think about it. Giving us 11, man, That’s a sure thing. A really good pick in a good draft. We should be happy to get a pick that good.

But then the next time I think about it, I remember we’re the Pittsburgh Penguins Ice Hockey Team, and it’s our god ordained destiny, nay, right, to have a generational talent on our team at all times, and that rangers pick in 2026 is our obvious path to Mckenna

 

[SEALBound]

I don't know of a GM that would give up the 10ov. I would absolutely bank on them being better next year if they are picking 10th. At least at 13th and this draft, there's a decent pros and cons conversation that you can have internally.

Although the funniest outcome is the Rangers winning the Schaefer sweepstakes this year

I will puke if they somehow got 2nd ov and they take my boy Misa.

 

[GilbertSeinfeld]

If the Penguins come out of this draft with Eklund with their own 1st and O'Brien with the Rangers 1st, I'm going to go full Jason Russell in downtown San Diego

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/jason-russell-san-diego-invisible-children-kony-2012/1948414/

 

[Jesse]

I'm thinking Brady Martin is a viable option in the 6-8 range as well.

I'm not there on this yet. I'm gonna try to explain this best I can but I'll have the video done Monday and it'll go a long way towards explaining this better.

He, at the base level, is an almost guaranteed 4th line basement. His main focus every single shift is hitting as many people as he possibly can as hard as he possibly can. That, combined with his skating alone, makes me think that even if nothing else in the hockey world goes well for him, he relies on just that to make a living.

But the offensive stuff concerns me. He consistently dangles himself off the puck. I have never seen a foward lose the puck more than him. He'll pull off a move that just utterly shocks you, and then the very next second he's gone so fast and jammed himself into such a bad situation with his speed and he forgets the puck, loses the puck, gets hit off the puck, or dangles it right into traffic.

He's got the skillset. He's got a decent enough shot. He's got the surprise dangles. Just cannot string them all together successfully. It's almost like he's moving too fast. Everything just stumbles and bumbles apart.

I feel like he has to pick a lane. He's either gonna be a north/south physical energy guy, or someone trying to be like Jake O'Brien without the hands to do it.

 

[Ugene Magic]

If McKenna wasn't there, 2026 could possibly be one of the worst drafts.

That's all we see everyone talk/think/dream about McKenna, McKenna, McKenna.....

 

[chrisp200]

I don't know of a GM that would give up the 10ov. I would absolutely bank on them being better next year if they are picking 10th. At least at 13th and this draft, there's a decent pros and cons conversation that you can have internally.

I will puke if they somehow got 2nd ov and they take my boy Misa.

The Rangers are in a bad way. This whole "I think they will be better next year" has very little merit. Nothing has looked good this season and they would have to have a hell of summer to turn this team around. This also isn't just this season, there were major issues last season around mid way through. People forget because they turned it on down the stretch. The division is tougher and their one major hope is that Igor doesn't regress or worse, gets injured. This team isn't great.

Taking the 10th overall pick would be such a mistake on their part. It would be different if Gavin Mckenna wasn't the prize in 2026, but since he is, the Rangers have no choice but to give up their pick this year. Otherwise, they will literally be sweating all of next year.

Great spot for the Pens. I think the Rangers make the wrong decision no matter what they choose which I love.

 

[Jesse]

Brooks said in an article that the Rangers were going to keep that pick if it's #13 or better, so I'm not expecting it. But I think we've heard so much smoke both ways (@IcedCapp mentioned he has heard similar) that I don't think it's a given.

With the Rangers continuing to lose and sitting in the #10 spot, I'd be extremely happy if they actually gave their 1st this year. It's even possible that pick ends up #8 or #9 as well, they're barely above the Sabres and Ducks in the standings right now and both of those teams have been hot recently.

I was on BSB this week and brought this topic up to them. They told me it was Larry Brooks wishful thinking and PR pitch for the team to keep it, not inside info they were. Take that FWIW.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I'm not there on this yet. I'm gonna try to explain this best I can but I'll have the video done Monday and it'll go a long way towards explaining this better.

He, at the base level, is an almost guaranteed 4th line basement. His main focus every single shift is hitting as many people as he possibly can as hard as he possibly can. That, combined with his skating alone, makes me think that even if nothing else in the hockey world goes well for him, he relies on just that to make a living.

But the offensive stuff concerns me. He consistently dangles himself off the puck. I have never seen a foward lose the puck more than him. He'll pull off a move that just utterly shocks you, and then the very next second he's gone so fast and jammed himself into such a bad situation with his speed and he forgets the puck, loses the puck, gets hit off the puck, or dangles it right into traffic.

He's got the skillset. He's got a decent enough shot. He's got the surprise dangles. Just cannot string them all together successfully. It's almost like he's moving too fast. Everything just stumbles and bumbles apart.

I feel like he has to pick a lane. He's either gonna be a north/south physical energy guy, or someone trying to be like Jake O'Brien without the hands to do it.

IMO his hands are pretty good. He’s very skilled. Iirc most completed dekes in the OHL this season.

His first few steps and overall heaviness to his skating worry me. Even tho the skating is probably good. He also truly seems like completely filled out. Which obviously isn’t true but I question how much physical runway he has left.

Yet another guy I think is more of a 15-25 guy in other drafts but ends up discussed in the 6-12 range because of the (seemingly) dearth of talent in that range.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I was on BSB this week and brought this topic up to them. They told me it was Larry Brooks wishful thinking and PR pitch for the team to keep it, not inside info they were. Take that FWIW.

Okay I'll be trying to manifest an Eklund/O'Brien duo with the Penguins 1st and Rangers 1st this year if that's the case.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I was high early on O’Brien but have cooled considerably. Don’t like him like yall do. I really worry about his escapism because of how he wants to slow it down and be a passer. Could he fill out and change that? Sure.. but it doesn’t seem like he’s the most natural athlete (relative to pro sports). Just think it is way too easy to see him getting washed out during the course of play in the NHL. To be a top line C he’s either going to need to add a different level of explosion to his first step or get incredibly strong and be able to hold guys off with his balance and reach. That is a LOT of future projection to bet on physically.

Or he’s gotta play like Bergeron and that’s an insane bet to make.

I’m ok with him in the top 10 (because who tf else is there after a certain point?) but hard for me to be super thrilled about it

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

I'm not there on this yet. I'm gonna try to explain this best I can but I'll have the video done Monday and it'll go a long way towards explaining this better.

He, at the base level, is an almost guaranteed 4th line basement. His main focus every single shift is hitting as many people as he possibly can as hard as he possibly can. That, combined with his skating alone, makes me think that even if nothing else in the hockey world goes well for him, he relies on just that to make a living.

But the offensive stuff concerns me. He consistently dangles himself off the puck. I have never seen a foward lose the puck more than him. He'll pull off a move that just utterly shocks you, and then the very next second he's gone so fast and jammed himself into such a bad situation with his speed and he forgets the puck, loses the puck, gets hit off the puck, or dangles it right into traffic.

He's got the skillset. He's got a decent enough shot. He's got the surprise dangles. Just cannot string them all together successfully. It's almost like he's moving too fast. Everything just stumbles and bumbles apart.

I feel like he has to pick a lane. He's either gonna be a north/south physical energy guy, or someone trying to be like Jake O'Brien without the hands to do it.

Sounds like a more physical Kasperi Kapanen! Thanks for the shoutout!

 

[Jacob]

I just think to play in the NHL while not being an *elite* talent, which just won't be available at 7OA, you need to be able to earn any coach's trust and play regular minutes in a system and contribute every shift, and not just provide offense. There will be times for any player where the offense just isn't coming, even for an O'Brien or Eklund, and teams won't have patience for that. That's not a Sullivan thing that's an NHL thing.

And then I look at his trajectory from OHL year 1 to 2 and the improvement he made it just seems almost exponential compared to other players ranked in the same area. It's almost unsustainable and you'd kind of expect a lull next year, but if he doesn't, he could hit 40-50 goals in his D+1 season. And that's while playing a physical and responsible game. I'm not saying I'd pick him at 7 but I'd consider it and I could see the Pens doing it.