Prospect Info: Draft 2025: Is it too late to tank? Asking for a friend

[CheckingLineCenter]

Pens could lose out and still draft 9th lol

I’ll take our chances

 

[Empoleon8771]

From the bit I've read about Frondell, I'd prefer O'Brien over Frondell at this point. Frondell having concerns about sticking at center plus his pretty poor play-driving numbers make me hesitant to draft him. If you think he's most likely going to end up a winger in the NHL, I think you just take Eklund over him.

My top-10 draft rankings in terms of who I want right now are probably:

1. Schaefer
2. Misa
3. Hagens
4. Martone
5. Eklund
6. O'Brien
7. Frondell
8. Desnoyers
9. Lakovic
10. Martin

There's a drop after 2 and a drop after 7 for me. Schaefer and Misa are in tier 1 and Hagens, Martone, Eklund, O'Brien and Frondell are all in tier 2.

 

[Randy Butternubs]

March 28th, 2025 - Brantford Bulldogs vs. North Bay Battalion
By Mitchell Brown
2025-04-01

A bunch of highlights in this game for O'Brien, one of the CHL's elite playmakers. Started the game by winning a high-zone battle, supporting the cycle down low, and then turning through his reception to spin a pass into the slot -- one of a pair of high-danger chances he set up on the low cycle. Late in the game, he circled high, looked across the slot, drew three defenders, and slipped a pass through all of them down low.

On the power play, the deception and playmaking were constant factors -- he faked shots before ripping pucks across the slot, connected off the backhand, and slipped pucks through layers. Scored with a one-timer that didn't leave the ice, and hit a post at 5-on-5. His growth defensively continues, too.

He plugs lanes, tips away passes, and shows a lot of varied skill on breakouts. He made quick plays, but also shifted the forecheck to create an advantage or carried it out of danger himself after anticipating pressure overshooting. No doubt that he has top-six upside with his high-end playmaking, as well as defence and physical impact.

But he doesn't play a particularly translatable game, preferring to slow the game down and hunt the perfect pass. He will pass up one opportunity to delay longer, get swarmed, and be forced to throw away possession. He also lacks some open-ice speed and lateral explosiveness to really bait and beat opponents off the rush.

There's more risk than some other top-10 options, but the payoff could be even greater than all but a handful in this draft.

 

[Jesse]

From the bit I've read about Frondell, I'd prefer O'Brien over Frondell at this point. Frondell having concerns about sticking at center plus his pretty poor play-driving numbers make me hesitant to draft him. If you think he's most likely going to end up a winger in the NHL, I think you just take Eklund over him.

My top-10 draft rankings in terms of who I want right now are probably:

1. Schaefer
2. Misa
3. Hagens
4. Martone
5. Eklund
6. O'Brien
7. Frondell
8. Desnoyers
9. Lakovic
10. Martin

There's a drop after 2 and a drop after 7 for me. Schaefer and Misa are in tier 1 and Hagens, Martone, Eklund, O'Brien and Frondell are all in tier 2.

Not a big Desnoyers guy?

 

[Jesse]

I am by far from the most connected guy in the business but I'm happy to have made a lot of friends very close to the OHL in a variety of capacities. Multiple times over the last three weeks, one of them reaches out to me to tell me how much the Penguins love Jake O'Brien. Like clockwork. They've been omnipresent up there since the holidays.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not a big Desnoyers guy?

Reading some of his scouting reports gives me "McGroarty at center" vibes with him. Definitely not a bad pick, but more of a complementary piece when they need more of a driver with this pick. Very smart player that can be the defensive presence for a line, but not a guy that's really going to be driving offense on your line. Seems like the kind of guy you'd want centering a winger like Kaprizov or Panarin.

Desnoyers is a guy I'd love to pick if I already had a Celebrini/Bedard in my system. The Penguins just need to aim higher because of the lack of top end talent in their system. I think that's similar to why I really like O'Brien as well, he has the highest boom potential outside of the top-4 picks in this draft IMO.

 

[Jared Grayden]

Reading some of his scouting reports gives me "McGroarty at center" vibes with him. Definitely not a bad pick, but more of a complementary piece when they need more of a driver with this pick. Very smart player that can be the defensive presence for a line, but not a guy that's really going to be driving offense on your line. Seems like the kind of guy you'd want centering a winger like Kaprizov or Panarin.
Desnoyers is a guy I'd love to pick if I already had a Celebrini/Bedard in my system. The Penguins just need to aim higher because of the lack of top end talent in their system. I think that's similar to why I really like O'Brien as well, he has the highest boom potential outside of the top-4 picks in this draft IMO.

That's how I feel about him as well. Even people that like him still acknowledge he might be offensively limited in the NHL. It would be similar to a Jordan Staal, which is probably a very good pick, but ideally made when you already have your Crosby or Malkin in the system.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

March 28th, 2025 - Brantford Bulldogs vs. North Bay Battalion
By Mitchell Brown
2025-04-01

A bunch of highlights in this game for O'Brien, one of the CHL's elite playmakers. Started the game by winning a high-zone battle, supporting the cycle down low, and then turning through his reception to spin a pass into the slot -- one of a pair of high-danger chances he set up on the low cycle. Late in the game, he circled high, looked across the slot, drew three defenders, and slipped a pass through all of them down low.

On the power play, the deception and playmaking were constant factors -- he faked shots before ripping pucks across the slot, connected off the backhand, and slipped pucks through layers. Scored with a one-timer that didn't leave the ice, and hit a post at 5-on-5. His growth defensively continues, too.

He plugs lanes, tips away passes, and shows a lot of varied skill on breakouts. He made quick plays, but also shifted the forecheck to create an advantage or carried it out of danger himself after anticipating pressure overshooting. No doubt that he has top-six upside with his high-end playmaking, as well as defence and physical impact.

But he doesn't play a particularly translatable game, preferring to slow the game down and hunt the perfect pass. He will pass up one opportunity to delay longer, get swarmed, and be forced to throw away possession. He also lacks some open-ice speed and lateral explosiveness to really bait and beat opponents off the rush.

There's more risk than some other top-10 options, but the payoff could be even greater than all but a handful in this draft.

dude find me one person that isn’t like

“This guy is pretty talented. Needs to fill out. Hard to tell how he translates. He could be the best pick the in draft, a middle 6er, or he could be really bad. we honestly have no clue”

about O’Brien

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Not a big Desnoyers guy?

Despite varying skillsets this is my “zero of these forwards are that exciting as lottery picks but tf knows” tier

Desnoyers
O’Brien
Martin
Cootes
Carbonneau
Lakovic

Someone from this group will be like a Wyatt Johnston/Robert Thomas level steal but I couldn’t tell you who.

I also watch Cullen Potter and am confused (outside of size) why he’s not flirting with everyone’s top 10 vs those guys.

 

[Gurglesons]

That's how I feel about him as well. Even people that like him still acknowledge he might be offensively limited in the NHL. It would be similar to a Jordan Staal, which is probably a very good pick, but ideally made when you already have your Crosby or Malkin in the system.

Adding a Jordan Staal to our system would be incredible.

I feel like the Flyers take Desnoyers given they already have his brother anyways.

 

[Sideline]

Adding a Jordan Staal to our system would be incredible.

I feel like the Flyers take Desnoyers given they already have his brother anyways.

People on this board are so spoiled by Crosby, Malkin, Francis, and of course Lemieux that they have no idea how many teams are dying to add a Jordan Staal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't think Jordan Staal is a bad player whatsoever, but I think they need to be aiming for higher upside due to who else they have in the system. I think McGroarty-Desnoyers-Koivunen could end up a great L2 down the road, but who's on L1 in that scenario? Crosby isn't going to play forever.

Like I said, I'd be totally good with Desnoyers if they had another super high upside forward prospect. I think Philly makes a ton of sense for Desnoyers, not only because they have his brother but they also have Michkov to play with Desnoyers going forward.

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't think Jordan Staal is a bad player whatsoever, but I think they need to be aiming for higher upside due to who else they have in the system.

I think McGroarty-Desnoyers-Koivunen could end up a great L2 down the road, but who's on L1 in that scenario? Crosby isn't going to play forever.

Jordan Staal was a regular 45-50 pt center who was good for 20 goals and played 20+ minutes.

If we are picking at 6, not sure how we are expecting "higher upside" then that.

 

[cookthebooks]

jordan staal was a 2oa guy who would honestly be a great equivalent type of guy to get with the rangers pick?

 

[Empoleon8771]

Jordan Staal was a regular 45-50 pt center who was good for 20 goals and played 20+ minutes.

If we are picking at 6, not sure how we are expecting "higher upside" then that.

That's a 2nd line center, you can easily get a 1st liner or top pair D caliber player with a pick at #6.

 

[Gurglesons]

That's a 2nd line center, you can easily get a 1st liner or top pair D caliber player with a pick at #6.

"You can easily get a 1st liner with a pick at #6" is fundamentally not understanding the NHL draft.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Uhhh… Staal is like a solid 2nd overall pick

You cannot reasonably expect more than Staal in terms of individual/impact at 7OA

 

[Empoleon8771]

My point is that you can absolutely get 1st line/top pair caliber players with a pick in the 5-8 range, so they should be aiming higher than a Jordan Staal caliber upside player with that pick. Getting Staal out of that pick wouldn't be a "bad" pick, but you can absolutely get someone like Seider, Keller, Tkachuk or Pettersson with a pick in that range.

 

[Gurglesons]

2021
# 6 - Simon Edvinsson
# 7 - William Eklund
# 8 - Brandt Clarke
# 9 - Dylan Guenther
# 10 - Tyler Boucher

2020 -
# 6 - Jamie Drysdale
# 7 - Alexander Holtz
# 8 - Jack Quinn
# 9 - Marco Rossi
# 10 - Cole Perfetti

2019
# 6 - Moritz Seider
# 7 - Dylan Cozens
# 8 - Philip Broberg
# 9 - Trevor Zegras
# 10 - Vasily Podkolzin

2018
# 6 - Filip Zadina
# 7 - Quinn Hughes
# 8 - Adam Boqvist
# 9 - Vitali Kravtsov
# 10 - Evan Bouchard

2017
# 6- Cody Glass
# 7 - Lias Andersson
# 8 - Casey Mittelstadt
# 9 - Michael Rasmussen
# 10 - Owen Tippett

YMMV on Seider and Bouchard. I'd say both are top pairing D and Q Hughes is obviously a huge steal who fell due to his size.

I don't see a single # 1 center drafted within the last 5 drafts in the 6-10 range.

 

[Gurglesons]

My point is that you can absolutely get 1st line/top pair caliber players with a pick in the 5-8 range, so they should be aiming higher than a Jordan Staal caliber upside player with that pick. Getting Staal out of that pick wouldn't be a "bad" pick, but you can absolutely get someone like Seider, Keller, Tkachuk or Pettersson with a pick in that range.

You can. You can also get a Kucherov in the 2nd round or Letang in the 3rd.

That doesn't mean those things "easily happen".

See the chart above. If you believe Desnoyers has a Jordan Staal career trajectory as a scouting team you take him every day of the week with a 6-10 1st. Adding a 2nd line center that can put up 20-25 goals and 50 pts like clockwork while being one of the best defensive centers in the game will reward you incredibly either in terms of contending or trade value.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Idk I feel like the fact that Hughes, Bouchard, Seider, Guenther and Eklund all went in the 6-10 range completely supports my "you can get a higher upside player than a 2C with that pick" claim? Add on 2016 as well and you can add Tkachuk (6th), Keller (7th) and Sergachev (9th) as well. Add on the 2015 draft and you can add Werenski (8th) and Rantanen (10th), and that's not bringing in Meier or Provorov for a debate.

Like I said, getting Staal at #7 is a totally good pick. But past drafts have shown you can pull off better players than Staal at #7 overall. It's not a given, but you absolutely can. With who else the Penguins have in their system, I'd rather go for someone I think has higher upside over picking Desnoyers, even if Desnoyers would end up a totally fine pick where he's projected to go.

If the Penguins already had those potential 1st line/top pair players, I would be much more open to taking Desnoyers. But with the lack of real top end talent in their system, they should be going for prospects with more boom potential than what Desnoyers has. I don't know why this is at all a controversial statement, it's pretty much what everyone here has said regarding Desnoyers.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

2017
# 6- Cody Glass
# 7 - Lias Andersson
# 8 - Casey Mittelstadt
# 9 - Michael Rasmussen
# 10 - Owen Tippett

This is my exact fear with this class and why I think it is a big deal we won some games and moved up at the end of the year. Whereas in 2022, ‘23, ‘24.. drafting 5th vs 8th wasn’t as pertinent.

2017 was “weak” going in. All things considered with Patrick’s injuries- ends up a super strong top 5. 11-20 ends up real solid. And some steals. But the 6-10 range actually blows chunks.

Similar vibes to this year imo. Strong top 5 or 6, a bunch of guys who look like typical 12-25 selections, and a big hole from like 6-12.

 

[Gurglesons]

Idk I feel like the fact that Hughes, Bouchard, Seider, Guenther and Eklund all went in the 6-10 range completely supports my "you can get a higher upside player than a 2C with that pick" claim? Add on 2016 as well and you can add Tkachuk (6th), Keller (7th) and Sergachev (9th) as well. Add on the 2015 draft and you can add Werenski (8th) and Rantanen (10th), and that's not bringing in Meier or Provorov for a debate.

Like I said, getting Staal at #7 is a totally good pick. But past drafts have shown you can pull off better players than Staal at #7 overall. It's not a given, but you absolutely can. With who else the Penguins have in their system, I'd rather go for someone I think has higher upside over picking Desnoyers, even if Desnoyers would end up a totally fine pick where he's projected to go.

If the Penguins already had those potential 1st line/top pair players, I would be much more open to taking Desnoyers. But with the lack of real top end talent in their system, they should be going for prospects with more boom potential than what Desnoyers has. I don't know why this is at all a controversial statement, it's pretty much what everyone here has said regarding Desnoyers.

Deeper drafts are going to potentially give you deeper player pools.

2015 will likely be viewed as a 2003 level draft at some point.

2016 was also incredible deep.

I'd much rather have a 2C like Jordan Staal than a top line winger like Keller, Eklund, Guenther or Meier with no centers.

Teams are built down the gut, not on the wing. I don't see any defenseman in this draft that sticks out as a top pairing guy outside of Schaefer. They may be in it, but I'm not burning a top ten 1st on a D or any forward that isn't a center outside of Eklund in our position. And Eklund probably projects as a lesser player than Jordan Staal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I can see a Jake O'Brien/Cody Glass comparison being made that would make a pretty convincing case to be hesitant with drafting O'Brien. That said, I always wonder with Glass how much of it was footspeed related and how much was injury related.

Deeper drafts are going to potentially give you deeper player pools.

2015 will likely be viewed as a 2003 level draft at some point.

2016 was also incredible deep.

I'd much rather have a 2C like Jordan Staal than a top line winger like Keller, Eklund, Guenther or Meier with no centers.

I've been advocating for taking O'Brien, so I'm not really advocating for taking a winger. I would also take Eklund over Desnoyers as well, but I think Eklund's potential upside could be really high with his skill level and motor combined.

I'm not a "do not draft" on Desnoyers, I'm just taking O'Brien over him because I think O'Brien's upside is higher. I don't want to draft Desnoyers because I think O'Brien could end up the better player, where I think Desnoyers is a safe bet to end up a good 2C but I'm unsure if he has the upside to be better. Desnoyers would be ranked #8 on my draft board, just after O'Brien, Eklund and Frondell.

I'm definitely not advocating for taking someone like Lakovic or Smith over Desnoyers. If I was sold on Frondell being able to stick at center in the NHL, I'd probably have him over all of O'Brien, Eklund and Desnoyers.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Idk I feel like the fact that Hughes, Bouchard, Seider, Guenther and Eklund all went in the 6-10 range completely supports my "you can get a higher upside player than a 2C with that pick" claim? Add on 2016 as well and you can add Tkachuk (6th), Keller (7th) and Sergachev (9th) as well. Add on the 2015 draft and you can add Werenski (8th) and Rantanen (10th), and that's not bringing in Meier or Provorov for a debate.

Like I said, getting Staal at #7 is a totally good pick. But past drafts have shown you can pull off better players than Staal at #7 overall. It's not a given, but you absolutely can. With who else the Penguins have in their system, I'd rather go for someone I think has higher upside over picking Desnoyers, even if Desnoyers would end up a totally fine pick where he's projected to go.

If the Penguins already had those potential 1st line/top pair players, I would be much more open to taking Desnoyers. But with the lack of real top end talent in their system, they should be going for prospects with more boom potential than what Desnoyers has. I don't know why this is at all a controversial statement, it's pretty much what everyone here has said regarding Desnoyers.

You can’t really compare ‘15 to anything

2021 was an interesting year where pre-draft there was one massive top tier, 1-9.

2023 you had a guy like Michkov going 7th lmao which is ridiculous

Each year is different. I think this is unlike a ‘23 or ‘21 and a rougher year to not be at the top — reminds me more of ‘22 or ‘17 in the 6-10 range

so I’m hoping someone gets pushed down.