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Prospect Info: Draft 2025: Is it too late to tank? Asking for a friend

PensFutures said:
Its giving Ryan Murray, as the kids say nowadays.
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Was he really drool worthy though? Just looking at his stats, he peaked at .7ppg in the WHL. That doesn't exactly scream offensive dynamo or even great 2 way output.
 
Fogel said:
Was he really drool worthy though? Just looking at his stats, he peaked at .7ppg in the WHL. That doesn't exactly scream offensive dynamo or even great 2 way output.
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He was king of the 2012 draft, which was the deepest dman draft ever. Tough to say if Schaefer would have kept up that pace.
 
Pancakes said:
I don't get the obsession people have with Schaefer. He's played like no games this year. I'd be very uneasy about taking him given the lack of data on him.
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Before he got injured all of the scouts and analysts all agreed he was the clear cut #1. He was going to hold the #1 despite being out the entire season. He's that good.
 
Pancakes said:
Would make me very uneasy given the lack of data on him. But then, I probably won't have to worry about it as barring a lottery win the Pens won't be in consideration for him.

I hate dmen at the top of the draft to begin with and one with less data points...meh. That just stinks of risk to me.
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Something to mind is that he's also, I believe, the youngest player in the draft. If he were born 9 days later, he would be eligible for the 2026 draft, while someone like McQueen would have been eligible for the 2024 draft that happened last year if he were born 17 days earlier.

Schaefer was already pretty dominant in terms of his physical abilities (6'2, 185 lbs), skating, controlling breakouts, etc... before he was injured at the World Juniors; More impressive when you realize that he's so young for this draft class that he was 16 years old until 2 weeks after the OHL pre-season started.

Long story long, he already looked so good and technically has the most room to grow with aging from this draft class.
 
Making the U20 team at 17 and then also looking fantastic in those 1 1/2 games he played in really locked Schaefer in. That's a tough team to crack and a tough tournament for anyone not 18 or 19 to perform well in.

And yeah he was great for Erie in the 17 or so games he played in. That's also despite coming back from mono I believe?

I wonder what he does next season. Most 1OAs go straight to the NHL but being a d-man that missed so much time maybe he returns to Erie, or maybe with the new transfer rules he goes the NCAA route for a year?
 
Jacob said:
Making the U20 team at 17 and then also looking fantastic in those 1 1/2 games he played in really locked Schaefer in. That's a tough team to crack and a tough tournament for anyone not 18 or 19 to perform well in.

And yeah he was great for Erie in the 17 or so games he played in. That's also despite coming back from mono I believe?

I wonder what he does next season. Most 1OAs go straight to the NHL but being a d-man that missed so much time maybe he returns to Erie, or maybe with the new transfer rules he goes the NCAA route for a year?
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If we got him I’d like to throw him in the NCAA for 1-2 years

(I know 2 years isn’t feasible for a 1OA but Makar and Hughes did it so idc)
 
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CheckingLineCenter said:
If we got him I’d like to throw him in the NCAA for 1-2 years

(I know 2 years isn’t feasible for a 1OA but Makar and Hughes did it so idc)
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1 year on an NCAA program strikes me as being really beneficial for him. He's missed a lot of time and needs to get some reps and minutes in but the 68-game grind of the CHL seems like it'd be counter-productive for a very young guy that might also need to add a little more strength and weight.

NCAA season tends to finish earlier too so he can get his feet wet in the NHL before going to a full camp and pre-season after summer break.
 
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Jacob said:
1 year on an NCAA program strikes me as being really beneficial for him. He's missed a lot of time and needs to get some reps and minutes in but the 68-game grind of the CHL seems like it'd be counter-productive for a very young guy that might also need to add a little more strength and weight.

NCAA season tends to finish earlier too so he can get his feet wet in the NHL before going to a full camp and pre-season after summer break.
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Yeah idk how much either league matters for a guy of his caliber but I do think d-men coming out of the NCAA have been adjusted better as of late too compared to the CHL.
 
I think I'd try to throw both Misa or Schaefer for a year in the NCAA if the Penguins won the lottery to get them. I think there's also a reasonable compromise to be made there, those guys would play a year in college and then sign their ELCs at the end of the 2025-2026 season so that they only have 2 years left. It's basically the same contract impact as those guys playing in the NHL, but it's them playing in a bit more appropriate of a league.
 
I honestly think unless you’re a serious contender tight to the cap - it is better to burn the first year off the ELC. Often leads to “better” second contract for team.

Sanderson is a great example. Didn’t even play a game but Ottawa burned a year by getting him signed late 2022. Plays a solid rookie year and is immediately eligible for extension. Ottawa goes that route. Now on one of best deals in the league.
 
Jared Grayden said:
Except he might not be available when they pick. Because it sounds like O'Brien is moving up a lot of draft boards. But yes, he does very much seem like a Clark type of player.
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This is where the winning hurts us a lot….stupid team
 
Im fine with drafting O’Brien but im also fine with him going early and pushing a guy like Martone down

I think he’s got upside but also think there’s a good chance O’Brien is just a Ryan Strome/Morgan Frost type. I’m not mad but I’m also not super excited to take him at 8OA. But again, I wouldn’t be shocked if in 10 years he was a top 3 player from this class so it’s not like he’s undeserving.
 


Jesse has the same exact stance I do with the prospects in this draft. Just give me O'Brien or Eklund and I'll be over the moon happy. It would be downright shocking if at least one of those guys wasn't available for the Penguins 1st at #7.
 
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Only way I’m over the moon thrilled at the 7 slot is if we win the lottery. Or Martone or Hagens get pushed down.

I’m happy with Eklund or Frondell.

I guess I’m happy with Smith because what 6’3 guy with his athleticism doesn’t play in some sort of role? And that athleticism could mean upside?

I am so completely agnostic about literally anyone else but will cheer for the scouts to be right.
 
I want O’Brien over Eklund because I always want the C with a higher ceiling, but I don’t know enough to care deeply
 
I know for a lot of young guys getting to the NCAA is an opportunity to get into a strength training and diet programs. Add muscle to their frame.
 
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