Prospect Info: Draft 2025: Is it too late to tank? Asking for a friend

[Zirakzigil]

They are on the same level for me, I lean towards Misa though.

McQueen missed the final 2 games of Brandon’s season due to back/hip pain.

There’s still the combine to get some more clarity on his health and I’m not rooting against him where ever he goes, but that red flag got a lot bigger.

Maybe 10 years from now it’s as forgotten as Hossa’s D+1 ACL injury or Malkin’s draft year concussion. But there will be better and less risky players available at our pick and probably at the Rangers too should we get it.

I don't think we'll get the Rangers' pick TBH. But I want no part of McQueen.

I wonder if we could make a deal with the Rangers with their 1st? Say we get their 1st at 14ov or better and we don't have anyone we're in love with but the Rangers do, maybe something like Rags 2025 1st + Pens 2025 3rd for their 2026 1st + Zac Jones? Or if we get say 11th OV, 11ov for Rags 26 1st + rights to Cuylle.

Something to also capitalize on their lack of cap space moving forward this season before offer sheets can be made. They have a ton of RFAs and only $11mil. KAM, Jones, Robertson, Cuylle, Kaliyev (but he's whatever), Rempe, Edstrom...and they have Perreault, Brisson, and Othmann waiting. They could afford to trade out a forward and get a bit of draft capital back.

Rangers have 2 days to decide. I tell them if we have the 14th pick, if who we want is gone, maybe let them know they can use it. Boston is tanking and hoe they fall to take Hagens.

Bringing this into this thread, the results tonight have the Penguins projected to finish with the #7 pick. The difference between Pittsburgh (78.6 points), Anaheim (79.2 points) and Buffalo (79.9 points) is super small though, plus Seattle (76.9 points) isn’t too far below them. Puts them pretty safely in the #7-#9 range at this point, with #7 seeking most likely due to the tiebreaker the Sabres and Ducks have on the Penguins.

The Rangers playoff odds also fell to less than 10% with the Habs win today. They’re projected to finish with exactly the #13 pick, and are 3 points back with 1 game in hand on the #14 pick Utah. I think they need to go 4-2 or 5-1 to end the year for the Penguins to get the pick this year. That puts them them outside of the playoffs at 87-89 points but still pushes their pick down to #14. If they do worse than that, I think the pick ends up in the #11-#13 range, which Brooks said in an article that they’d keep sadly.

That's one of:
Desnoyers
Frondell
O'Brien

and one of:
Bear
Carbanneau
Lakovic
Spence

Any combo there would be great assuming Rags finish outside of 13.

McQueen mixtape is out. Felt like I could have made an equally long or longer video of him doing things I did not enjoy watching.

Looking at their schedule and how they've performed, I'm inclined to agree. It seems like that pick will fall right at #13 overall, where they'd have to finish the year really hot to jump Utah in the standings to make that pick #14 overall.

Unless that Brooks report is false and the Rangers would give the Penguins the #13 pick this year, I'm inclined to believe that the Rangers pick will slide to 2026. Which isn't ideal IMO but isn't a negative either.

There’s really only 2 logical reasons the Rangers would convey their top 13 pick:

- tear down rebuild
- offer sheet

I do not see either happening.

I think the argument to be made is that an unprotected 2026 1st would have more trade value than a #13 pick this year, so they may keep the 2026 1st to trade that in an attempt to get better now.

The issue with that thought though is that they'd almost definitely be lottery protecting that 2026 1st if they actually traded it. The Penguins only have it unprotected, the Rangers would very likely protect it if they actually moved it.

Either way I don't think it makes a huge difference. Even though I think the Rangers 1st will come in around #20 overall next year, I'm not sure that #20 overall next year is any worse than #14 overall this year.

The argument is that the Rangers are a non-playoff team this year with an older core who got worse when they added a perennial malcontent, so there's good chance they end up in the same spot or worse in a deeper draft next year, which isn't only better if they draft around the same spot, but its also another lotto ticket for the best prospect in years.

But that's not how the Rangers view themselves. Whether fans want to argue that doesn't matter because that's not how the Rangers franchise views the team.

The Rangers believe they are a playoff/contender and this is an anomaly. They are keeping the pick this year if they can. Id much rather have pick 15 next year than 12 this year. But since we are getting McKenna next year with that pick its all good.

Doesn’t really make much sense

Your theory is that they can get a better player for that pick today…

so teams are going to trade them a good player for that pick, which makes the Rangers better, and expect the team to finish in the mid teens?

I feel like the 2025 1st is worth more in a trade because you KNOW it is at 11, 12, 13 etc.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I still want no part of McQueen.

 

[Ryder71]

I still want no part of McQueen.

I said so a couple weeks back. Totally agree. We don't need someone that's already having back issues at his age. Also, his stats aren't exactly overwhelming when he was healthy. Hard pass with our 1st pick for sure.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

ok with McQueen if he’s your “other” 1st rounder

I’m assuming we only have 1 pick though

 

[HandshakeLine]

ok with McQueen if he’s your “other” 1st rounder

I’m assuming we only have 1 pick though

Why?

 

[HandshakeLine]

Even if we have two aren't there better picks?

 

[Ryder71]

Even if we have two aren't there better picks?

I'd like Martin a lot with that 2hd pick.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't like McQueen all that much, but I'd have a tough time arguing for another prospect over him at like #15 overall. McQueen is a "do not draft" for me with the Penguins 1st, because I simply do not see an argument to take him over O'Brien, Frondell or Eklund. But if the Rangers 1st was #15 overall, you'd have a tough time arguing against someone like Kindel or Aitcheson over him for me.

As a comparison, Lakovic's tape looks a lot better than McQueen's tape, but McQueen's numbers have been consistently better than Lakovic's up until this year. Am I really going to risk taking Lakovic over McQueen? Lakovic is also a 2006 birthyear and he had 46 points in 105 games in his first 2 WHL seasons. McQueen in 2023-2024 alone had 51 points in 53 games.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I love to draft guys who barely play 15 games a year because I love small sample sizes. It's a good thing the NHL season is also smol. This is my thing, it was made for me.

 

[HandshakeLine]

To put it another way, I guess we're lacking a Beau Bennett in our system these days?

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

@Empoleon8771

For sure, I'm just looking at why it makes sense for the Pens. I think getting the NYR '26 1st is the best possible outcome.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Why?

Comes with the caveat you are comfortable with the medical. Hasn’t had a problem playing games until this season so maybe your doctors say it’s a one off.

Outside of injury- Have said it before but raw tools in a vacuum are like top 10 in any draft. His play is not but this class is very unexciting very quick.

If the Rags pick fell to 16 and you take him: he’s maybe not the best prospect there but is probably the most talented outside of Potter. If he somehow fell to pick 28 and we somehow had a pick there - I think he’s an excellent flyer selection.

Put it this way- I think he’s way more talented than Yager or McGroarty or anyone who’s touched our system even if his play is still raw. Given how unexcited am I about anyone after like pick 8-10 in this class- I don’t hate the idea of scooping him up if he falls and we had an extra first… again you have to be comfortable with the medical.

I hate him as a top 5, top 10 guy. Calculus really starts to change at 15-20 range. Anything after that… he’s as good as anyone.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Yeah, I'm not really comfortable with the medical, especially with the type of injuries. I don't really care that much about players missing time their draft year, but what footage I've seen of McQueen gives me serious vibes of lackluster prospects like Vellieux and Bennett.

 

[SEALBound]

I don't like McQueen all that much, but I'd have a tough time arguing for another prospect over him at like #15 overall. McQueen is a "do not draft" for me with the Penguins 1st, because I simply do not see an argument to take him over O'Brien, Frondell or Eklund. But if the Rangers 1st was #15 overall, you'd have a tough time arguing against someone like Kindel or Aitcheson over him for me.

As a comparison, Lakovic's tape looks a lot better than McQueen's tape, but McQueen's numbers have been consistently better than Lakovic's up until this year. Am I really going to risk taking Lakovic over McQueen? Lakovic is also a 2006 birthyear and he had 46 points in 105 games in his first 2 WHL seasons. McQueen in 2023-2024 alone had 51 points in 53 games.

At 15ov, expectations change though. If he's there with the NYRs 1st, I'm fine taking him provided the others I have ahead of him are gone. But if that's the case, I would be more okay with him turning into the middle 6, oft-injured center I think he projects to be. I see Michael Rasmussen here which ultimately would be fine. If we are picking 5/6/7, I would be a bit more upset if that's all we are getting but honestly, that has more to do with draft pedigree perceptions than anything.

Not sure how everyone else feels but I'm not "down" on McQueen as much as I am "there are several players I would take ahead of him relative to where I think we will be drafting". I mean, he's climb the rankings a bit since coming back. The injury will always be an issue/concern but we have to give him his due as well.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The more I've thought about the Penguins 1st, the more I've been leaning towards O'Brien over Eklund. It's tough because I think Eklund will be NHL ready pretty quickly, I think he could have an impact as a top-9 forward as soon as mid-year in 2027-2028. But O'Brien's upside as a 6'2" playmaking top-6 center is something that is so intriguing that I don't think I'd be able to pass up on it.

Eklund feels like the safer pick to me but O'Brien feels like the higher upside. That's not to say Eklund's upside is low, I think he definitely has clear top-6 upside, but O'Brien has all of the pieces that could combine into a franchise 1C if he puts it together.

 

[PensFutures]

But O'Brien's upside as a 6'2" playmaking top-6 center is something that is so intriguing that I don't think I'd be able to pass up on it.

 

[Ugene Magic]

The only way I'm not taking O'Brien is if Frondell is there.

On McQueen, let's hope someone ahead of us takes him Because, I feel even if it was the NYR's pick this team regrets it as soon as next year.

 

[Empoleon8771]

View attachment 1008254

Fair response

Beech is always a guy I've wonder about whether the Penguins just failed to properly develop him properly or if he was always bad. From what I've read, they tried to turn him from a playmaking center with size into a power forward and it never really panned out well. It's not like those 2001-2004 Penguins were well run.

 

[Zirakzigil]

No love for Kindel if we pick 8ish. How rude.

 

[Ugene Magic]

View attachment 1008254

Ha...!

Good thing the Pens didn't draft him, and he just became one of the worst trades ever.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Man that win in Dallas was nice to see Sid score a Hatty but what a stupid game to win

 

[PensFutures]

Fair response

Beech is always a guy I've wonder about whether the Penguins just failed to properly develop him properly or if he was always bad. From what I've read, they tried to turn him from a playmaking center with size into a power forward and it never really panned out well. It's not like those 2001-2004 Penguins were well run.

Im sorry, I couldnt help myself . I think the Caps knew Beech wasnt gonna pan out, and in Pittsburgh he was just used as a marketing pieceto justify moving Jagr.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Is anyone else half hoping the Hawks win this lotto and take themselves out of eligibility for the next two drafts?

 

[SEALBound]

The late 90s drafts are a case study in generational trauma.

 

[The Old Master]

Is anyone else half hoping the Hawks win this lotto and take themselves out of eligibility for the next two drafts?

still hoping we win it, but it would make a good second choice. imo