Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Everyone is trading up, but no one seems to be trading down edition

[Jdodd]

At 11 take McQueen, Martin, or Eklund
Trade 12 to Canadians for 16 and 41.
Trade 16 to Nashville for 23 and 35.

Take Boumedienne or Kindel at 23. Likely Boumedienne

Take Eric Nilsson and Ryker Lee or Vaclav Nestrasil at 35 and 41.

You get hopefully 2 Centers McQueen/Nilsson a Forward Lee or Nestrasil and a Defenseman Boumedienne and still have 59 and your 3 3rds.

 

[Ryder71]

I will tell you player I really like and some I am not high on in the early rounds

Not high on
Boumedienne
Fiddler
Carbonneau
Zonnon

Really high on
O’brien (was high on him since start of season)
Potter
Ivankovic
Ihs Wozniak
Bruzstewicz

Most of those guys on those lists aren't in the top 12 where we're currently situated. I'm high on O'Brien and would love to get him! But he's not falling to 11th. Every other player on those lists aren't worth drafting at that point. Carbonneau maybe. But that's iffy. The others are just NO!

 

[Jacob]

 

[Ryder71]

Pretty tough customer against 16 yr olds and one of the oldest players in this draft class, hard pass with that clown!

 

[Ryder71]

It's clear that some of you aren't even trying at this point.

You're just throwing in the towel or being obtuse.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

lol in like more than half of these the other team keeps the puck

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I would really be fine with Aitcheson.

If he was an elite skater.

Since he isn’t— I literally think he’ll have to change a lot about his game to translate into a top 4 D I want on my team. Too much tweaks to play style and projection about what he could do… for what? Maybe a middle pair guy?

Whatever. If we take him I hope he makes me look like an absolute clown. But man I do not see it.

 

[Jared Grayden]

lol in like more than half of these the other team keeps the puck

It's the thought that counts.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

It's the thought that counts.

***Does literally nothing I want a D-man to do***

“But he scores goals (for the first time ever) and hits CHLers in his 3rd year of junior hockey bro”

Great.

 

[Turin]

That guy in EASHL who didn't know the pokecheck button.

Nothing about what I saw there screamed "this will translate to the pro league"

 

[Jacob]

Pretty tough customer against 16 yr olds and one of the oldest players in this draft class, hard pass with that clown!

OHL average age is 18.7.

 

[Mr. T]

It's nice to see this dogshit site already crapping itself and we're still 3 days away from the draft. This place is a 404 error waiting to happen for draft night.

Oh, I thought you meant the quality of posts here

 

[Jacob]

Interesting scouting report. Still watching. Lots of details.

Eklund seems like a better skater than most give him credit for. I don’t see any major technique issues and with his high work rate he covers a lot of ground.

 

[Jared Grayden]

***Does literally nothing I want a D-man to do***

“But he scores goals (for the first time ever) and hits CHLers in his 3rd year of junior hockey bro”

Great.

He's a polarizing prospect like Wheeler said. Some like us simply won't like him. I'd like him a lot more if he actually had a physical tool of note. I'd way rather trade back and get one of the many big dmen in this draft. Rombach, Amico, Limatov, Barnhill, etc. Maybe Aitcheson is Bieksa 2.0. Still not convinced he's worth drafting that high.

 

[DesertPenguin]

How does the organization decide which player they're going to select at 11 and which one at 12? Who gets their name called first? And will 11 lord it over 12 for the rest of his life?

Always wondered if that fueled any sibling rivalry with the Sedin twins.

 

[DesertPenguin]

I looked at a 20 year sample for #45 OA picks, 1995-2015
There were 3 cases of them turning into a top-six Forward, top-4 D, or starting goalie.
Bergeron, Petry, Ribeiro.

So 15% hit rate is a realistic expectation.
Whereas when I look at the 20-29 range, it's above 30%. A lot of very big names in there that were missed.

Then when I look at 12ths over the same sample, the hit rate is good, but still wouldn't justify that trade for me.
It's close though.

I'd love to see you do that for every pick in the first three rounds, then graph it. Seriously would.

 

[Kasperi kapanen]

I feel like he’s gunna take a lot of penalties. Kinda whiffs on a lot of his hits too I noticed.

He’s hits himself out of position with nothing to show for it. I’ll pass.

 

[Ryder71]

OHL average age is 18.7.

I was being facetious, however he is one of the older players this draft class.

 

[Ryder71]

Interesting scouting report. Still watching. Lots of details.

Eklund seems like a better skater than most give him credit for. I don’t see any major technique issues and with his high work rate he covers a lot of ground.

Among the most NHL ready. Not that he will be next season, but probably 1 1/2 to two years.

 

[Peat]

***Does literally nothing I want a D-man to do***

“But he scores goals (for the first time ever) and hits CHLers in his 3rd year of junior hockey bro”

Great.

If we draft him, your reaction will be my favourite part.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I'd love to see you do that for every pick in the first three rounds, then graph it. Seriously would.

Would be interesting for sure. There'd be some gray area, in that sometimes players are forced into roles they don't deserve, just because teams want to capitalize on a high pick.
So it'd come down to my own judgment of players capabilities in those cases.

But yeah, you could get a fairly good idea of the odds of hitting.
One thing I'll say is that it gets very ugly in the 3rd round. I'm starting to believe more and more in trading those for NHL-ready youth reclamation projects. The odds of getting burned are very low.
Like Tomasino for a 4th is looking very good right now.

Or just use them to move up in the draft, if you can.

 

[Bishop7979]

He's a polarizing prospect like Wheeler said. Some like us simply won't like him. I'd like him a lot more if he actually had a physical tool of note. I'd way rather trade back and get one of the many big dmen in this draft. Rombach, Amico, Limatov, Barnhill, etc. Maybe Aitcheson is Bieksa 2.0. Still not convinced he's worth drafting that high.

It feels like outside of the top two maybe three defenders in the draft there isn't a huge drop from what you would get in the second half of the first round and what you would get in the second round.

The drop between the potential in a defender you'd get at 12 vs what you would get in the second round is significantly smaller than the drop between a eklund or bear at 12 vs a forward in the second round.

Take two forwards with 11/12, worry about defenders later in the draft.

 

[Ryder71]

It feels like outside of the top two maybe three defenders in the draft there isn't a huge drop from what you would get in the second half of the first round and what you would get in the second round.

The drop between the potential in a defender you'd get at 12 vs what you would get in the second round is significantly smaller than the drop between a eklund or bear at 12 vs a forward in the second round.

Take two forwards with 11/12, worry about defenders later in the draft.

Very astute point, 100% agree.

 

[Jared Grayden]

It feels like outside of the top two maybe three defenders in the draft there isn't a huge drop from what you would get in the second half of the first round and what you would get in the second round.

The drop between the potential in a defender you'd get at 12 vs what you would get in the second round is significantly smaller than the drop between a eklund or bear at 12 vs a forward in the second round.

Take two forwards with 11/12, worry about defenders later in the draft.

There's probably a reason Tulsky had Carolina avoiding dmen early in the draft for years. Based on their development path usually taking longer, I am guessing that leads to dmen being less predictable early in the draft and thus those picks not being as efficiently allocated to dmen.

 

[Harvey Birdman]

I know bringing up Mark Madden around here is a bit of a lightening rod. But please humor my question and don’t make this a MM rant. I’m out in San Diego and along with this board it’s the main way I stay dialed into Pittsburgh.

He was talking about LJ Mooney and that we have three 3rd’s, he is projected as a 4th or 5th rounder due to his size but has 1st round talent. Can anyone break down the kid for me I’m curious?