Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Everyone is trading up, but no one seems to be trading down edition

[maxpenguins6630]

I’m warming to Jackson Smith. More offensive potential there than I realized.

The speed at that size is intriguing.

Not sure about processing the game fast enough

 

[AuroraBorealis]

I'll put it this way and again each draft is a bit different but I'd rather have 12th and 45th then say 21 and 24.

I looked at a 20 year sample for #45 OA picks, 1995-2015
There were 3 cases of them turning into a top-six Forward, top-4 D, or starting goalie.
Bergeron, Petry, Ribeiro.

So 15% hit rate is a realistic expectation.
Whereas when I look at the 20-29 range, it's above 30%. A lot of very big names in there that were missed.

Then when I look at 12ths over the same sample, the hit rate is good, but still wouldn't justify that trade for me.
It's close though.

 

[Ryder71]

I am very confident in what I say.

Doesn't mean you won't be wrong.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I’m warming to Jackson Smith. More offensive potential there than I realized.

The speed at that size is intriguing.

He's a huge boom/bust prospect, which is why I've seen a lot of scouts split on him. In McKenzie's rankings, he was ranked as high as #6 and as low as #25. Huge disparity in how he's viewed. I'd absolutely take him at #12 over Aitcheson, I think Eklund at #11 and Smith at #12 is a pretty good outcome for the Penguins.

That said, I'm starting to wonder if he's gone before the Penguins pick because of that perceived upside. Seattle is super thin on LD prospects and Smith is the exact archetype of defensemen that they like.

 

[maxpenguins6630]

Doesn't mean you won't be wrong.

Muse coached Hensler let’s add to that so we have very strong intel on Hensler

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I’m warming to Jackson Smith. More offensive potential there than I realized.

The speed at that size is intriguing.

He big and skate good.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I'm way more open to guys that have the tools but need coaching now that we've replaced the egomaniac with a coaching staff full of guys strictly here to help development endeavors, fwiw.

Like a Lakovic, if you trade back from the 12th half a dozen spots to pick up an extra 2nd rounder and he's still there, give it a rip.

 

[maxpenguins6630]

He's a huge boom/bust prospect, which is why I've seen a lot of scouts split on him. In McKenzie's rankings, he was ranked as high as #6 and as low as #25. Huge disparity in how he's viewed. I'd absolutely take him at #12 over Aitcheson, I think Eklund at #11 and Smith at #12 is a pretty good outcome for the Penguins.

That said, I'm starting to wonder if he's gone before the Penguins pick because of that perceived upside. Seattle is super thin on LD prospects and Smith is the exact archetype of defensemen that they like.

I predict he goes to ANH

 

[Ryder71]

Muse coached Hensler off we add to that so we have very strong intel on Hensler

That's fine, but we shouldn't be reaching for a defensemen at that stage in the draft. This is a weak D crop. No defensemen beyond Schaefer should be picked in the top 14-15.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Muse coached Hensler let’s add to that so we have very strong intel on Hensler

Hensler is pretty much the one guy I don't want them to pick. Please no.

 

[Turin]

Trade Rust and 12th to Nashville for 5th overall, draft Hagens (love you Barry)

Draft Eklund at 11th

Trade Karlsson to Tampa Bay for Howard and Sheary


Hagens, Howard, Eklund, McGroarty, Koivunen new forward core to hopefully surround McKenna

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

we’re gonna take Hagens. We all celebrate.

He then refuses to sign in 3 years and we trade him for garbage.

Hensler is pretty much the one guy I don't want them to pick. Please no.

Unreal skater. I’m fine with it

 

[Empoleon8771]

we’re gonna take Hagens. We all celebrate.

He then refuses to sign in 3 years and we trade him for garbage.

Unreal skater. I’m fine with it

Would much rather go for Smith if you're going that route. Especially considering they have almost nothing on LD in terms of prospects but have Brunicke at RD.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's nice to see this dogshit site already crapping itself and we're still 3 days away from the draft. This place is a 404 error waiting to happen for draft night.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Would much rather go for Smith if you're going that route.

I’d prob agree but who knows man

I always encourage people to go look at ranking and drafts ~10 years ago. Nothing is set in stone right now, even though there appears to be set tiers and whatnot. It feels like it’s gotten even more random lately on who actually pans out.

Yes, even Aitcheson (who stinks lol) may end up really good.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

we’re gonna take Hagens. We all celebrate.

He then refuses to sign in 3 years and we trade him for garbage.

Unreal skater. I’m fine with it

I like the idea of sitting at 8th overall with Hagens available and seeing what the Isles would part with to take him. If they're paying like a 2026 top 10 protected 1st, Eiserman and Ritchie for 8th (Hagens) and a 2nd or something, I'm listening.

Goal scoring winger and the best C prospect (on paper) the team's had in their system since Staal? Sign me up.

They probably don't want Hagens that badly though.

 

[maxpenguins6630]

Hensler is pretty much the one guy I don't want them to pick. Please no.

Have you watched him ??? To say something like that is non sense

 

[maxpenguins6630]

Would much rather go for Smith if you're going that route. Especially considering they have almost nothing on LD in terms of prospects but have Brunicke at RD.

Easier to find LD than RD

 

[Jared Grayden]

Have you watched him ??? To say something like that is non sense

I only saw him in the WJC and found him really unimpressive with his puck moving. Heard he improved as the season went.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I’d prob agree but who knows man

I always encourage people to go look at ranking and drafts ~10 years ago. Nothing is set in stone right now, even though there appears to be set tiers and whatnot. It feels like it’s gotten even more random lately on who actually pans out.

Yes, even Aitcheson (who stinks lol) may end up really good.

I mean yeah, I don't think we have any way of knowing who will end up good in the long run. Just right now, I'd rather take Smith than Hensler. Hensler is only a guy I'd want to take if they trade down with #12 and are in the Lakovic/Reschny/Hensler area.

Smith has massive red flags but the upside is immense, I wouldn't pass on him for Hensler if I could pick between the two.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I like the idea of sitting at 8th overall with Hagens available and seeing what the Isles would part with to take him. If they're paying like a 2026 top 10 protected 1st, Eiserman and Ritchie for 8th (Hagens) and a 2nd or something, I'm listening.

Goal scoring winger and the best C prospect (on paper) the team's had in their system since Staal? Sign me up.

They probably don't want Hagens that badly though.

As a guy with Hagens 2nd overall. I still am on side of preferring 2 players tbh and staying put. I’m sure it will turn out to be okay class but everyone has so many warts that I’d rather get 2 dudes

I mean yeah, I don't think we have any way of knowing who will end up good in the long run. Just right now, I'd rather take Smith than Hensler. Hensler is only a guy I'd want to take if they trade down with #12 and are in the Lakovic/Reschny/Hensler area.

Smith has massive red flags but the upside is immense, I wouldn't pass on him for Hensler if I could pick between the two.

Upside with defenseman is so hard to really predict tho

like look at Byram and Faber. Byram has way more talent. Produces similarly. No where near as good in practice though.

Hence my point where it’s hard to definitively sit here and say “trading up is right move” or “this guy HAS to go above this guy” etc

 

[Duffy13]

I led that charge and was completely beside myself when they brought the kids up and went on a run. That was the dumbest thing Dubas has done since being here!!!!!! He should left those kids down there and let them fall a part after the BUF loss. Bringing up those kids changed the momentum. It was beyond ridiculous. I was furious!

Not only did it ruin the draft position, it ruined WBS' momentum and they crashed out of the playoffs hard.

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Hagens, Howard, Eklund, McGroarty, Koivunen new forward core to hopefully surround McKenna

That is five wingers and one center. That will not cut it.

 

[chrisp200]

That is five wingers and one center. That will not cut it.

Jack Eichel is Penguin next year too. That work?

 

[Jag68Sid87]

Defensemen like Smith scare the hell out of me. When they are more about tools than the tool box, I don't know man.

Whenever I hear words like "processing information" and it's not a two thumbs up, yikes.