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Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Everyone is trading up, but no one seems to be trading down edition

I don't want them to double dip on defensemen, but Mrtka at #11 and Smith at #12 would be 2 pretty nice picks to address the long-term outlook of the defense. That could be their future top pair if Smith can perform up to his physical traits.

That said, I still don't think Eklund goes top-10. I think the Penguins get Eklund at #11 and either Smith or Aitcheson at #12, or they'll just get Eklund at #11 if the Rangers pick slides to 2026.
 
CheckingLineCenter said:
Almost no way the top 10 will go full chalk. I’d be pretty shocked if those 10 were the first 10 picked.

But maybe.
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I think McKenzie went 7/10 in the 2024 draft, with the guys sliding into the teens being the guys ranked like 8-10.

My guess is you'll probably see 1 or 2 guys ranked in the 11-14 range going in the top-10 (Mrtka is the likely one and Aitcheson is the wildcard) and 1 or 2 guys ranked in the 8-10 range falling out of the top-10 (Eklund is the likely one and McQueen is the wildcard).
 
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Only guy I feel strongly about at our spot either way is no Aitcheson.

But still think the “right” thing to do is hope someone falls — and if no one does — take Eklund. You’re almost guaranteed getting an NHLer.
 
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www.tsn.ca

With 'prodigious talent and boundless potential,' Matthew Schaefer tops McKenzie's NHL Draft Ranking | TSN

If, as expected, Matthew Schaefer is taken No. 1 overall by the Islanders, it will be unprecedented. That is, no No. 1 pick will have ever played so few games in his draft year as Schaefer.
www.tsn.ca www.tsn.ca

Total list here. Another interesting quote:

Which is to suggest this: Identifying the top 10 prospects this year is rather easy, bordering on obvious.

If you look at TSN’s final list, and then check any of the myriad independent scouting lists elsewhere, you’re pretty much going to find the same eight to 10 names immediately following Schaefer and Misa.

Something along these lines:

Brampton Steelhead right winger Porter Martone (No. 3 on the TSN list); Swedish centre Anton Frondell (No. 4); Moncton Wildcat centre Caleb Desnoyers (No. 5); Brantford Bulldog centre Jake O’Brien (No. 6); Boston College centre James Hagens (No. 7); Soo Greyhound centre Brady Martin (No. 8); Brandon Wheat King centre Roger McQueen (No. 9); and Swedish right winger Victor Eklund (No. 10).

There may be the odd list that has Seattle Thunderbird defenceman Radim Mrtka (No. 11) , Tri-City American defenceman Jackson Smith (No. 12) or Barrie Colt defenceman Kashawn Aitcheson (No. 13) in the Top 10.

But it would be tough to find a top 10 list that is devoid of any one of Martone, Frondell, Desnoyers, O’Brien, Hagens, Martin and McQueen. In fact, of those seven players, only two — Martin and McQueen — got a single vote outside the top 10 from our panel of 10 NHL scouts.
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Empoleon8771 said:
I think McKenzie went 7/10 in the 2024 draft, with the guys sliding into the teens being the guys ranked like 8-10.

My guess is you'll probably see 1 or 2 guys ranked in the 11-14 range going in the top-10 (Mrtka is the likely one and Aitcheson is the wildcard) and 1 or 2 guys ranked in the 8-10 range falling out of the top-10 (Eklund is the likely one and McQueen is the wildcard).
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Doesn't McKenzie average getting over 6/10 correct in the top 10? If I weren't so busy with work right now I would go through his last 10 final rankings and compare.
 
A couple of other notes:

-Eklund's upside is viewed to either be a 2nd line winger or a middle-6 forward, split about evenly between the scouts
-Mrtka (between #10 and #14) and Aitcheson (between #11 and #18) were ranked fairly consistently, while Smith (between #6 and #25) and Hensler (between #11 and #38) had huge variances for where they were ranked. Mrtka seems like an obvious guy to go in the top-10 but I think Smith is a potential riser too.
-McKenzie notes that these rankings are strictly a numerical projection, not a mock draft. It's a projection of the range guys are taken, so you will see guys fall and some guys rise.

Jared Grayden said:
Doesn't McKenzie average getting over 6/10 correct in the top 10? If I weren't so busy with work right now I would go through his last 10 final rankings and compare.
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Yeah it's usually in the 6/10 to 7/10 range, but everyone in his top-10 tends to go in the top-14 or top-15.

deakka said:
Doesn't sound promising any of the C/G will drop. Probably will be taking a D
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McKenzie literally says that his rankings are not a mock draft and there will be variation from his rankings to the draft.
 
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Getting both picks and using both on defensemen would be pretty funny.

Aitcheson, Mrtka, Brunicke, Pieniniemi will be the new Pouliot, Maatta, Despres, Morrow lol
 
Turin said:
Getting both picks and using both on defensemen would be pretty funny.

Aitcheson, Mrtka, Brunicke, Pieniniemi will be the new Pouliot, Maatta, Despres, Morrow lol
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I'm actually very concerned we're going to relive 2012 again by taking a complete bust of a dman and passing on the undersized Swedish winger who ends up being a top 10 player in the re-draft.
 
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Here is how McKenzie has done in the past couple of years:

2024:

1. Celebrini (#1)
2. Demidov (#5)
3. Levshunov (#2)
4. Silayev (#10)
5. Lindstrom (#4)
6. Dickinson (#11)
7. Buium (#12)
8. Parekh (#9)
9. Helenius (#14)
10. Iginla (#6)

Sennecke (ranked #11, drafted #3), Yakemchuk (ranked #13, drafted #7) and Catton (ranked #12, drafted #8) were the 3 he missed on.

2023:

1. Bedard (#1)
2. Fantilli (#3)
3. Carlsson (#2)
4. Smith (#4)
5. Michkov (#7)
6. Leonard (#8)
7. Dvorsky (#10)
8. Reinbacher (#5)
9. Benson (#13)
10. Perreault (#23)

Simashev (ranked #19, drafted #6) and Danielson (ranked #16, drafted #9) were the 2 he missed on.

2022:

1. Slafkovsky (#1)
2. Wright (#4)
3. Cooley (#3)
4. Nemec (#2)
5. Gauthier (#5)
6. Jiricek (#6)
7. Kemell (#17)
8. Lekkerimaki (#15)
9. Savoie (#9)
10. Kasper (#8)

Korchinski (ranked #11, drafted #7) and Mintyukov (ranked #12, drafted #10) were the 2 he missed on.

2021:

1. Power (#1)
2. Beniers (#2)
3. Edvinsson (#6)
4. Eklund (#7)
5. MacTavish (#3)
6. Guenther (#9)
7. Clarke (#8)
8. Hughes (#4)
9. Johnson (#5)
10. Lucius (#18)

Boucher (ranked #29, drafted #10) was the only one he missed on, and that's significantly more Ottawa being run by a bunch of morons than McKenzie being wrong

On average, he tends to miss out on 2 guys per draft in his top-10, with the guys falling being guys ranked usually in the #7-#10 range and guys rising ranked usually in the #11-#14 range. So basically, it's a reasonable projection that 2 guys in the #8-#10 range fall out of McKenzie's top-10 and 2 guys in McKenzie's #11-#14 range rise into the top-10.

Or another way to put it: I'm betting that McQueen and Eklund fall out of the top-10 while Smith and Mrtka rise into the top-10.
 
Jared Grayden said:
True. He's actually a little above average listed at 6'1'' 205lbs. where average is at 6' 198 lbs. Though Eklund needs to add a lot of weight he was measured at 5'11'' and weight is about the only trait I expect all prospects to develop.
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Granted it was considered weaker but I think what you are describing is more like Martone falling. I think Forsberg was ranked 3rd.
 
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CheckingLineCenter said:
Granted it was considered weaker but I think what you are describing is more like Martone falling. I think Forsberg was ranked 3rd.
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Forsberg was definitely more highly regarded than Eklund is this year. But I just look to his brother falling as well. Demidov last year. I don't think any perceived undersized wingers will hold value at the top of the draft. Maybe Martone avoids it because he does have very good size, but Hagens is another prospect I could see teams view as an undersized winger instead of being a center and will cause him to drop.
 
Jared Grayden said:
Forsberg was definitely more highly regarded than Eklund is this year. But I just look to his brother falling as well. Demidov last year. I don't think any perceived undersized wingers will hold value at the top of the draft. Maybe Martone avoids it because he does have very good size, but Hagens is another prospect I could see teams view as an undersized winger instead of being a center and will cause him to drop.
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my whole point is I just don’t think passing on Eklund for say Smith is as crazy as passing on Forsberg for Derrick “ranked 21” Pouliot

I think the idea Eklund’s ceiling is somewhat limited is a fair one (even if I don’t agree and think he could maybe, maybe be like a Bratt/Marchand and more reasonably Jarvis)
 
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Smith seems like he’d be a really solid get for a D. I’d also be able to catch some of his games locally, which is a plus.
 
ikyan said:
If the top 10 goes as shown and we get the Rags pick as well, I would heavily consider grabbing and LD and an RD back to back.
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I'd be trading back with the Rangers pick if that's how the draft went.

I'm totally good with taking Mrtka at #11, but I'd be trading down to gain some extra picks if your options are Smith, Aitcheson and Bear at #12. Ideally you can trade back to about #20 and gain a late 1st/early 2nd to do that, Kindel and Reschny should be an option to take at #20.
 
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Empoleon8771 said:
I'd be trading back with the Rangers pick if that's how the draft went.

I'm totally good with taking Mrtka at #11, but I'd be trading down to gain some extra picks if your options are Smith, Aitcheson and Bear at #12. Ideally you can trade back to about #20 and gain a late 1st/early 2nd to do that, Kindel and Reschny should be an option to take at #20.
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That would be about best case to me, though I'd probably hope for Sascha Boumedienne in that case.
 
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