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Prospect Info: Draft 2025 - Everyone is trading up, but no one seems to be trading down edition

Empoleon8771 said:
I don't really agree with this, I think Aitcheson's physicality and toughness is pretty unique and he'd offer a lot of value with that even if he just becomes a #4/5 defenseman.

Jeannott was traded for nearly a whole draft class of picks solely because he was big and physical.
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Jeannot is a forward and was a massive failure for Tampa so not seeing much positive correlation there. Aitcheson is smaller than average and while he does excel at big hits, he doesn't actually hit often when defending. I like his shot and don't mind his decision making. That's about it. Might have the least impressive physical tools of any 1st round potential dman. According to the survey Wheeler just released, Aitcheson is a very polarizing prospect. I am obviously among his skeptics.
 
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Jared Grayden said:
Jeannot is a forward and was a massive failure for Tampa so not seeing much positive correlation there. Aitcheson is smaller than average and while he does throw some big hits, he doesn't actually hit often when defending. I like his shot. According to the survey Wheeler just released, Aitcheson is a very polarizing prospect. I am obviously unimpressed.
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If you want to talk defenseman, Radko Gudas has had an over 800 game NHL career as an ultra physical #4 defenseman and is about the same size as Aitcheson. I think something between Gudas and Trouba is a realistic projection for Aitcheson, which doesn't seem like a bad pick at all at #12.

The physicality and toughness he offers is a very unique element in his game that make NHL GMs go crazy and overpay for. I'm personally not all that high on Aitcheson, but him being taken at #12 feels pretty appropriate for where he should be going and I'd have a tough time faulting Dubas for picking him.
 
This is where I’m at.

Guys if they drop you take them and don’t ask questions.

O’Brien, Eklund.

Unless you’re trading down into the 20s stay away.

Brady, Smith, Aitcheson.
 
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IF NYR decides to give us 12, and IF we get our guy at 11 (O'Brien, Eklund), then trading down from 12 seems like the best option for me.

Of course, it takes two to tango.
 
With Aitcheson you're hoping he lives up to the Trouba comparisons, which isn't exactly a stellar player in its own right, but there's a real good chance he's just a Mark Friedman. :laugh:

I dunno. I'm just hoping this team finds a way to end up with Martone or Hagens without robbing themselves blind. All it takes is a few guys going a bit higher than projected, and teams in the 7-9 range not being super in love with either Martone or Hagens.

Don't really care what happens to the Rangers pick tbh. I think I'd prefer them to punt it to next year just because in a deeper draft you're probably getting a similar prospect at 20ish as you will this year at 12, and there's that golden ticket chance if the wheels totally fall off that Rangers team due to a Igor or Panarin injury.
 
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Lust for Life said:
Part of me hopes Rags gives us #12 and Pens draft Aitcheson and Mrtka just to see the complete meltdown.
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And that's precisely what you'd see!

But let me up the stakes. To see the masses shutter with fear how about we trade Crosby?

Now THAT would cause depression and angst the likes this forum has never seen before! And I'd love it soooooo much! :thumbu:
 
Bear would be a fall back if JOB, Martin or EK aren't there. I like him just dubious of his injury.

NO DEFENSEMEN With our 1st pick!
 
Big Friggin Dummy said:
With Aitcheson you're hoping he lives up to the Trouba comparisons, which isn't exactly a stellar player in its own right, but there's a real good chance he's just a Mark Friedman. :laugh:

I dunno. I'm just hoping this team finds a way to end up with Martone or Hagens without robbing themselves blind. All it takes is a few guys going a bit higher than projected, and teams in the 7-9 range not being super in love with either Martone or Hagens.

Don't really care what happens to the Rangers pick tbh. I think I'd prefer them to punt it to next year just because in a deeper draft you're probably getting a similar prospect at 20ish as you will this year at 12, and there's that golden ticket chance if the wheels totally fall off that Rangers team due to a Igor or Panarin injury.
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That's the problem. Why draft someone with Trouba upside, lol.
Im dead set on having Aitcheson as the single do not draft player!
 
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deakka said:
Best case! While others have way higher cealings
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Not really. Unless they trade up or someone slips, anyone the Penguins are going to take at #11 is going to have a very comparable upside to Aitcheson.

Eklund, Aitcheson, Smith, Lakovic, McQueen, Mrtka, Bear....all of these guys have pretty comparable upsides of decent top-6 forwards/top-4 D. Some of them are more boom or bust (Lakovic and Smith notably), but each of those guys are projected to be similarly talented players.
 
deakka said:
That's the problem. Why draft someone with Trouba upside, lol.
Im dead set on having Aitcheson as the single do not draft player!
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I'd rather have a potential Trouba than a 6'6 Zbynek Michalek or Tyler Myers in Mrtka. /shrug

Aitcheson's like 5th on everyone's wish lists around here anyway. Nobody's advocating taking Aitcheson over any of the forwards (Martone, Hagens, O'Brien, Smith, Eklund, Bear, Lakovic), and maybe even Smith. :laugh:
 
The player projections for the guys ranked around where the Penguins will be picking (let's say #7-#15) seem like they're similar to:

-O'Brien: Dylan Strome
-Martin: Bennett
-McQueen: Vilardi
-Mrtka: prime Tanev
-Eklund: Garland/Jarvis
-Aitcheson: Trouba
-Smith: Matheson/Chychrun
-Bear: Holloway
-Lakovic: Mantha

I don't think there's that big of a difference between most of these guys with their projections. Some of them have higher highs to reach, I think O'Brien can become Jason Spezza 2.0 and a lot of scouts seem super high on McQueen's upside too. But their reasonable projections are all in the 2nd liner or middle pair D range.
 
There are always guys that become stars that other teams miss. Some even become superstars. And a lot of that has to do with how they are developed.

In a bad draft, go for the gusto, swing for the fences and if you miss. Oh well. We have 30 picks in the next three drafts. And probably a few more incoming.

Take a big swing. None of the defensemen after Schaefer look like big swings to me.
 
Empoleon8771 said:
The player projections for the guys ranked around where the Penguins will be picking (let's say #7-#15) seem like they're similar to:

-O'Brien: Dylan Strome
-Martin: Bennett
-McQueen: Vilardi
-Mrtka: prime Tanev
-Eklund: Garland/Jarvis
-Aitcheson: Trouba
-Smith: Matheson/Chychrun
-Bear: Holloway
-Lakovic: Mantha

I don't think there's that big of a difference between most of these guys with their projections. Some of them have higher highs to reach, I think O'Brien can become Jason Spezza 2.0 and a lot of scouts seem super high on McQueen's upside too. But their reasonable projections are all in the 2nd liner or middle pair D range.
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Eliteprospects "shades of..."

Schaefer - Heiskinen
Misa - Celebrini
Martone - Wheeler, Rantanen
Hagens - Cooley, Hughes
McQueen - Geno
Smith - Harley, Sanheim
Desnoyers - Couturier
Bear - Jarvis, Hagel
Eklund - Jarvis, Konecny
O'Brien - Dylan Strome
Carbonneau - Filip Forsberg
Martin - Bennett
Frondell - Horvat, Lee, Nelson
Lakovic - Byfield, Cozens
Mrtka - Marcus Pettersson
Aitcheson - Trouba with a one-timer

Not to say that they'll be at their level.
 
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Based on absolutely nothing, this is how I think the top-10 is gonna go

Isles: Schaefer
Sharks: Misa
Hawks: Frondell
Mammoth: Martone
Preds: Desoyners
Flyers: O'Brien
Bruins: Hagens
Kraken: Martin
Sabres: Aitcheson
Ducks: Mrtka
Pens: Eklund
Pens: Mcqueen
 
deakka said:
Yes. 100% don't care if all the D except Schaefer is still on the board. Rather have some lower tier F/C than any D
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I want the most skilled forward available!

But beyond the big three (JOB, EK and Martin) if we miss out on them I'm wondering who would be 4th.

This is where it gets murky. I've seen conflicting reports or analysis regarding Bear, Carbonneau and Lakovic. Who's better?

I love Reschny but 11th OA seems too high for him.
 
Trouba wasn’t a bad player but his skill set of purposefully injuring players is falling out of style.

If I start running through my head of all the best defenders in the league I can’t think of any where their hitting is the main asset.

It’s just more important to be able to get the puck out of the zone and up the ice.
 
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