The thing with Mrtka is I think you're making the value play if you draft him. At his size, position, and skating, even if we make the determination that he won't pan out, he'll hold value looooong after that. Throw him in a 20+ min/night role for one season and he will have the Ristolainen or Myers reputation among NHL GMs. Its almost a guarantee that you can recoup the value of the 11th overall pick at any point in the next 5-6 years.
Wheras, if Carbonneau or Reschny, etc. don't progress significantly by their D+3 seasons, their value is significantly impacted.