Salary Cap: Dr Dubas Cap Thread: He wants the Nurse

[HandshakeLine]

Not for anywhere?

He should know hes not winning here. Also it's the last year in his contract. I wouldn't mind him on a shorter deal, but if he has no intention of staying, they should be trying to work with him on a trade. Although that might be closer to the deadline

I have no way of knowing what he himself thinks, but I think that unless the team is obviously out of playoff contention early on or makes it clear to him in the offseason that there are going to be significant negative changes, then he's probably going to veto anything until the TDL at the earliest. Besides, if we're going on his play in the postseason, EK doesn't seem like he's really all that concerned with winning a Cup at all, here or elsewhere.

I'll be shocked if we trade EK, maybe even more shocked than if we traded Rust.

(Again this has no bearing on whether or not I think it would be a smart idea to trade EK, just the possibility of him allowing a trade.)

 

[Koivunsons]

Nurse is 10th in dman cap hits today. It's still top 10 dman money. It's probably not going to be top 10 dman money next year but even with the exploding cap, it'll be probably be top 20 for a while.

The cap hit isn't hugely high up my list of concerns here but it is top 10 dman money.

Guess I ran the wrong filter.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

The Athletic's player cards for 2024-2025 (i.e. before his stinker of a year) gave Nurse's market value at 7.1m. This year's... I don't think they did them this year actually. But the possibility of him playing like a 7m dman again, at least to begin with, is plausible.

Still not the most attractive thing in the world but then, we're probably not going to be getting very many players who are attractive for their cap hit whatever we do.

It's plausible but not high percentage. The trade should reflect what his likely level will be here imo, not what the best possible outcome is.

The offense looked more like a down year that will improve here.
The defense I'm not too optimistic about, especially if he's paired with Letang.
We're not gonna get much out of him with special teams most likely.

It's Dubas vs Bowman. I'm expecting a solid trade here for us.

He's honestly probably only overpaid by about 1-2 million.

We disagree there. If you get his 2024-25 level back then sure, but I don't expect to see that next year. And I certainly am not counting on that to be his norm over the next 4, when he's already 31.

If it gets us out from under the Graves contract I'm willing to add a minor shit pick or asset to the deal.

That doesn't accomplish anything for us. We're not spending to the cap and won't for a while. We can just keep Graves buried in Wilkes.
He might even play better next year and be a helpful fill-in during injuries.
It'll only hurt the sweetener we receive. I don't see the point. Just let it run out.
If you truly need it off your books in 2027-28 or 2028-29, it'll be easier to unload when more of it's paid off. Can worry about it then. Although I doubt we'll ever need to.

 

[eXile3]

Nurses shot share stats were awful last year. He was heavily out chanced especially in the playoffs.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I think it all comes down to price, obviously. Nurse is no worse than most of the guys on the roster as is, it's just that I wouldn't pay any assets to acquire him.

 

[thevelvetfog]

Yeah good call and agree on point two

Will say think it’s possible Byram didn’t ask to be in Buffalo and it’s more posturing for “hey I’ll only stay for top dollar” but would be more amenable to a “fairer” deal elsewhere where he a) doesn’t have to live in Buffalo and b) doesn’t have to play 3rd fiddle.

Apparently Byram's agents is pretty aggressive, but I think most of it is that Buffalo doesn't want pay their 3rd defenseman the top 1/2 money he is likely to get. They already have the 4th highest paid D-corps with Byram on his current deal.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

No. It’s too 10 dman money 3-4 years ago.

Nurse is 10th in dman cap hits today. It's still top 10 dman money. It's probably not going to be top 10 dman money next year but even with the exploding cap, it'll be probably be top 20 for a while.

The cap hit isn't hugely high up my list of concerns here but it is top 10 dman money.

Now that that's established, the question everyone should ask themselves is:

"Would we sign a 31 year old who played like a mid 2nd pairing defenseman last year and isn't a good fit with any of our current or future top 4 defenseman to a 4 year deal with an NMC that pays him like a top 10 blueliner as a UFA?"

The answer should be a resounding f*** no. Who cares if he "costs nothing" in terms of assets? Its a shitty contract for a bad fit on the wrong side of 30 with trade protection we shouldn't be touching without serious sweetener.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If the Penguins end up trading for Nurse, I think you hope my “Graves is absolutely being included” take is wrong and they end up doing Girard for Nurse+. I definitely think you’re getting assets added if you take Nurse back at full salary, and there really isn’t any benefit for the Penguins to ask for retention on him.

Also on the “top-10 salary for defensemen” take, I think people are going to be shocked at what guys are signing for this year in UFA. Raddysh and Carlson are likely getting near $9 million and Byram is probably getting $10+ million on a sign and trade. He’s 10th right now, but by next season, he’s likely outside of the top-15. Byram, Hughes, Makar, Carlson and others are definitely going to jump him in salary.

I also have the question why a team with as much money and cap space cares in the slightest about Nurse being overpaid. The argument about him being a poor fit? Agree with that entirely, that’s why I’m not all that interested in him. But the money truly doesn’t matter whatsoever.

 

[eXile3]

Now that that's established, the question everyone should ask themselves is:

"Would we sign a 31 year old who played like a mid 2nd pairing defenseman last year and isn't a good fit with any of our current or future top 4 defenseman to a 4 year deal with an NMC that pays him like a top 10 blueliner as a UFA?"

The answer should be a resounding f*** no. Who cares if he "costs nothing" in terms of assets? Its a shitty contract for a bad fit on the wrong side of 30 with trade protection we shouldn't be touching without serious sweetener.

This is a great point. If Nurse was a UFA and wanted that contract we wouldn’t give it to him. So why are we giving assets for it?

 

[Empoleon8771]

This is a great point. If Nurse was a UFA and wanted that contract we wouldn’t give it to him. So why are we giving assets for it?

Someone would give him 4 years at $8+ million with the state of the UFA market, though. He’d be by far the best LD available.



Raddysh is getting 8 years at probably $8.5 million because he had 1 good season in the NHL. I have no doubts someone would be giving Nurse over $8 million a year if he was just asking for a 4 year deal. What better LD are there in free agency?

 

[eXile3]

Someone would give him 4 years at $8+ million with the state of the UFA market, though. He’d be by far the best LD available.



Raddysh is getting 8 years at probably $8.5 million because he had 1 good season in the NHL. I have no doubts someone would be giving Nurse over $8 million a year if he was just asking for a 4 year deal. What better LD are there in free agency?

Sure. Teams doing stupid things in UFA all the time.

 

[K Fleur]

“Somebody would give him 8m” isn’t a good enough justification to bring him in.

Some idiot is gonna give Mantha 6m a year too. Doesn’t need to be us.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

Someone would give him 4 years at $8+ million with the state of the UFA market, though. He’d be by far the best LD available.



Raddysh is getting 8 years at probably $8.5 million because he had 1 good season in the NHL. I have no doubts someone would be giving Nurse over $8 million a year if he was just asking for a 4 year deal. What better LD are there in free agency?

Come on.

Raddysh is coming off a 22 goal, 70 point season, and he's STILL projected to be making less than Nurse on his next deal.

We moneyballed LHD last year and got a better defenseman - and better fit - than Nurse in Spoon for 1/6 the price. Much rather try that again rather than get entangled in his mess of a contract if EDM won't give us a reason.

 

[Empoleon8771]

People already have made up their minds regarding Nurse so I don’t see the point in continuing to beat this dead horse. The reality is that the market is so hot right now that trading nothing for Nurse (or more likely getting a plus to take him on) is the best option to add a LD right now from an asset management POV. If you go the UFA route, the LDs are much worse and you’re going to be giving them even worse contracts. If you go the trade route, there really isn’t much in the market and it won’t be cheap to acquire. You’re probably going to have to dangle someone like McGroarty to pull of Zellweger, and he’s about the best option out there.

Taking advantage of Edmonton’s cap situation to get Nurse isn’t ideal, like I said I don’t like his fit here, but that’s the best option from an asset management POV. Hoping you can hit on another Wotherspoon in UFA is like hoping you can get your retirement savings from playing the lottery. Nurse is overpaid, but the term on his deal is modest, he only has a 10 team NTC starting in 2027-2028 and he should be giving you decent but flawed middle pair right now.

 

[thevelvetfog]

Will end up being Nurse + 52 for our 3rd or something like that

You're probably right. I was hoping we could pry away one of their good young players and we throw in Novak and/or Braz.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

It's wild that we're at the point in the off season where we're debating the merits of adding Nurse as if it wouldn't be "we're taking your $10M AAV pile of hot coiled dogshit for big assets".

 

[Empoleon8771]

Come on.

Raddysh is coming off a 22 goal, 70 point season, and he's STILL projected to be making less than Nurse on his next deal.

This is what Raddysh has done over his entire NHL career. He just got a $64+ million deal. You're way too focused on the AAV while ignoring the term.

We moneyballed LHD last year and got a better defenseman - and better fit - than Nurse in Spoon for 1/6 the price. Much rather try that again rather than get entangled in his mess of a contract if EDM won't give us a reason.

Who's this Wotherspoon that they can sign in free agency?

Wotherspoon was an under the radar type addition that had really strong underlying numbers with Boston in a #4/5 role last year. This is the LD group in free agency this year:

Honestly the closest guy to Wotherspoon here is a guy the Penguins already have, Shea is the most apples to apples comparison. That's how bad the UFA LD class is, Shea is legitimately the best LD available this year.

It's wild that we're at the point in the off season where we're debating the merits of adding Nurse as if it wouldn't be "we're taking your $10M AAV pile of hot coiled dogshit for big assets".

I think the only way the Penguins aren't getting assets back for Nurse is if they're insisting Graves is included in the deal. If it's Girard going back or no salary going back, they're definitely getting assets on top of Nurse.

 

[Duffy13]

Girard would have to be moved out, and they then would need to find defensive savants to babysit Nurse and Letang. Letang still puts up points relative to his deteriorating skill set, Nurse at 31 going on 32 had 24 points with 8 of them because of McDrai. So we can't expect offense out of him and he needs a defensive baby sitter or else he gets absolutely caved in.

I mean this is a no brainer if we are starting the tank. If that's the direction then absolutely this is a great move, and we should also go after Reilly. But it's been shoved down our throats that that is not the plan. The plan is to be competitive... If that's the plan and this is a legitimate move within that plan.... Then Dubas needs to be put under some serious scrutiny as to whether or not he knows how to assemble and develope a quality 6 man defense.

Bringing in Nurse is pointing in one direction, being competitive, and walking in the opposite direction, starting the tank.

 

[K Fleur]

Raddysh just had a year Nurse couldn’t replicate even in an EA game if he tried.

Big reach to compare a contract that could be bad down the line vs one that is a f***ing boat anchor right now.

 

[TojoP]

Who's this Wotherspoon that they can sign in free agency?

Wotherspoon was an under the radar type addition that had really strong underlying numbers with Boston in a #4/5 role last year. This is the LD group in free agency this year:

View attachment 1256194

Honestly the closest guy to Wotherspoon here is a guy the Penguins already have, Shea is the most apples to apples comparison. That's how bad the UFA LD class is, Shea is legitimately the best LD available this year.

This is true. Dubas smashed so many expectations last year that people think he can just do that again. Sign another Wotherspoon or make another Chinakhov trade.

The thing with Nurse is we don't need him this year. I'd rather just play Girard if they can't do anything else. If they do, I hope it's for someone younger.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I think it all comes down to price, obviously. Nurse is no worse than most of the guys on the roster as is, it's just that I wouldn't pay any assets to acquire him.

I wouldn't even if they did max retention because, he's not playing behind two of the best players in the league anymore, and he wasn't top D-man material even then. He's not worth the 7.1 @Peat suggests he is, and given the new range he'll be in he's a 5.0/5.5 D-man.

So, unless he comes here heavily retained and costs absolutely zilch, I wouldn't touch him with your broom handle, let alone mine.

There's no matching what he got to play behind there, here. Maybe last year with the depth the Pens had with Mantha maxing his value.

 

[Empoleon8771]

This is true. Dubas smashed so many expectations last year that people think he can just do that again. Sign another Wotherspoon or make another Chinakhov trade.

The thing with Nurse is we don't need him this year. I'd rather just play Girard if they can't do anything else. If they do, I hope it's for someone younger.

The issue is that there aren’t really many trade candidates in the LD market either. With the Athletic’s trade board, the only LD are Nurse, Reilly and Lohrei. With Seravalli’s trade board, the only LD are those same 3 guys plus Zellweger. TSN has Byram but I figure the Penguins don’t have the assets for him.

It’s a really shitty market for LD right now unless something else shakes out of the tree. It’s all guys who don’t particularly fit well with the Penguins needs and the only legitimately good guys are going to cost a fortune to acquire.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

View attachment 1256193

This is what Raddysh has done over his entire NHL career. He just got a $64+ million deal. You're way too focused on the AAV while ignoring the term.

I'm taking into consideration the totality. I wouldn't be throwing money at Raddysh either, but at least he's coming off an elite season. Nurse was hugely overpaid before this season.

Who's this Wotherspoon that they can sign in free agency?

Wotherspoon was an under the radar type addition that had really strong underlying numbers with Boston in a #4/5 role last year. This is the LD group in free agency this year:

View attachment 1256194

Honestly the closest guy to Wotherspoon here is a guy the Penguins already have, Shea is the most apples to apples comparison. That's how bad the UFA LD class is, Shea is legitimately the best LD available this year.

Nobody pegged Wotherspoon for his breakout either. But based on what we know, I'd even rather bring Kulak back than take on Nurse without huge sweetener.

Same age, much better fit, likely half the price.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Nobody pegged Wotherspoon for his breakout either. But based on what we know, I'd even rather bring Kulak back than take on Nurse without huge sweetener.

Same age, much better fit, likely half the price.

Perfect example.

There's just no justification to target, Nurse. He's a negative asset costing assets to remove, which in all likelihood, would be the case here in the next so many years. Betting on a overhyped/overpaid player to get better at this stage of his career is a suicide bet.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Nobody pegged Wotherspoon for his breakout either. But based on what we know, I'd even rather bring Kulak back than take on Nurse without huge sweetener.

Same age, much better fit, likely half the price.

Plenty of people on here saw Wotherspoon’s underlying numbers and said “this guy could be legit if he maintains this in a top-4 role”. The most similar defenseman to him in FA this year is Blankenburg, but he’s a RD rather than a LD.

I don’t know why you think Kulak would want to come back after Dubas cast him aside after 20 games here.