Speculation: Don't look now, Hawks 2 points from the 5th place in the lottery

[Toews2Bickell]

If Hawks could've avoided the disastrous November and had a functional PP unit since day one they probably would be in the playoff mix. I mean I guess they still kind of are and any time you have 88 playing in god mode you still have a chance to rip off a win streak, but not starting the year with JC might have been a season costing mistake

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Next 11 games before the TDL:
7 home, 4 away
@ EDM
vs VAN
vs DET
@ BOS
vs NJD
vs CBJ
vs OTT
@ DET
vs DAL
vs COL
@ ANA

There are a lot of winnable games here folks. They're playing a lot of bottom feeders/injured teams. Colorado is on a slide since MacKinnon/Rantanen/Landeskog slowed down.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

If Hawks could've avoided the disastrous November and had a functional PP unit since day one they probably would be in the playoff mix. I mean I guess they still kind of are and any time you have 88 playing in god mode you still have a chance to rip off a win streak, but not starting the year with JC might have been a season costing mistake

Ya, I think if they made the coaching/systems switch in the offseason, then this team is in a nearly certain playoff spot.

However, what does that do for us? This roster isn’t better than Nashville’s, Winnipeg’s, Toronto’s, Washington’s and certainly is not better than Tampa’s.

While I think we would’ve had a better season if the move had been made in the offseason, I’m going to look at the bright side, and that’s a top-10 pick rather than a first round exit.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

The Hawks have 29 games left.
13 vs teams currently in the playoffs
The Hawks also have:
Arizona twice
Detroit twice
LA Kings twice
Anaheim once
Ottawa once
Philly once

6-6-1 vs PO teams=13 points
7-1-1 vs the above teams=15 points
5-2-0 vs bubble teams outside the playoffs=10 points

That would bring the Hawks to 87 points. The question is, would that be enough? Probably not, so even if they go on a run, the playoffs are still improbable.

I think 92 points might get into the last WC spot.

They'd have to go 19-6-4 the rest of the season. Not happening.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

TDL instructions for Stan

 

[Blackhawks]

The Hawks have 29 games left.
13 vs teams currently in the playoffs
The Hawks also have:
Arizona twice
Detroit twice
LA Kings twice
Anaheim once
Ottawa once
Philly once

6-6-1 vs PO teams=13 points
7-1-1 vs the above teams=15 points
5-2-0 vs bubble teams outside the playoffs=10 points

That would bring the Hawks to 87 points. The question is, would that be enough? Probably not, so even if they go on a run, the playoffs are still improbable.

I think 92 points might get into the last WC spot.

They'd have to go 19-6-4 the rest of the season. Not happening.

Given that the last playoff spot holder is only 2 over .500 2/3 of the way through, projection has it that only 85 points would get you in the playoffs. You should not compare total entry points to previous seasons, you shoulda compare it to what is at hand.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Given that the last playoff spot holder is only 922 over .500 2/3 of the way through, projection has it that only 85 points would get you in the playoffs. You should not compare total entry points to previous seasons, you shoulda compare it to what is at hand.

You're right that 85 would get you in as of right now. The West is having a really down season.
In the days of ties, 95 was usually a guarantee, and 90-92 would squeak in. History says they'll need at least 90 pts to get in, this year might be different though.

 

[Hattrick Kane]

Next 11 games before the TDL:
7 home, 4 away
@ EDM
vs VAN
vs DET
@ BOS
vs NJD
vs CBJ
vs OTT
@ DET
vs DAL
vs COL
@ ANA

There are a lot of winnable games here folks. They're playing a lot of bottom feeders/injured teams. Colorado is on a slide since MacKinnon/Rantanen/Landeskog slowed down.

Winnable should be used very loosely here. We can just as easily lose all of these games as well. Our defense is still shoddy, we were lucky to escape Minnesota with two points.

 

[JaegerDice]

I will never, ever understand the mindset of people that would prefer to scrape, claw and luck their way into the playoffs only to get dummied by legitimate contenders, versus accept the team isnt very good and try to draft the kind of legitimate impact players necessary to build this team back into a contender.

Is meaningless instant gratification really such a pull? Even at the expense of long-term gain?

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

I will never, ever understand the mindset of people that would prefer to scrape, claw and luck their way into the playoffs only to get dummied by legitimate contenders, versus accept the team isnt very good and try to draft the kind of legitimate impact players necessary to build this team back into a contender.

Is meaningless instant gratification really such a pull? Even at the expense of long-term gain?

I'm with you guys. I've been on the tank train for a while. It doesn't help the Hawks one bit if they get back into the race. I'm just pointing out how soft their schedule is, combined with the fact they're playing better. If they went 3-7-1 during that stretch or something like that it is better for them than if they go 7-3-1. The playoffs are such an incredible longshot. I think that this team is far more talented than they've played so far, but.....I'd prefer they show it next season, when the dead weight(other than Seabrook) is gone and they have a ton of cap space to improve the depth.

 

[Pez68]

I will never, ever understand the mindset of people that would prefer to scrape, claw and luck their way into the playoffs only to get dummied by legitimate contenders, versus accept the team isnt very good and try to draft the kind of legitimate impact players necessary to build this team back into a contender.

Is meaningless instant gratification really such a pull? Even at the expense of long-term gain?

What the hell are you carrying on about?

First off, what we prefer has absolutely no bearing on what this team does, so, why do you care? The Hawks don't give a f*** if we want them to tank, or make the playoffs. The players want to win, and pride is quite silly. It makes you think you can do things that are extremely unlikely. Like go on a very improbable run, and make the playoffs, and compete for a cup....

Most people understand this team losing and being a lottery team is probably better in the long run. But, rooting for your team to lose is just stupid. If they lose, fine. If they win, great. At the end of the day we have no control over this.

 

[Joe Scaduto]

I will never, ever understand the mindset of people that would prefer to scrape, claw and luck their way into the playoffs only to get dummied by legitimate contenders, versus accept the team isnt very good and try to draft the kind of legitimate impact players necessary to build this team back into a contender.

Is meaningless instant gratification really such a pull? Even at the expense of long-term gain?

I like to better the team via the draft but the winning culture is important also. If there is a chance of making it to the playoffs ....you GO for it.High draft picks help but there is no guarantee you win just with a bunch of high picks without a winning culture ...eg .Edmonton has had a high pick after high pick and still in bottom of standings.You tell the current players who have won cups in the past to pack it in and you will get **** that.We are going fot it.

 

[magnificent]

It is on Kane, Toews, DeBrincat, and other players who are not interested in losing every game.

Kane and Toews have great seasons, Delia makes saves, DeBrincat scores..The reality is the team is unlikely to get top3 pick. With Kane playing like that? No way.

 

[Malagahawks]

There is always a black & white argument, to tank or not to tank. It all really boils down to how well the team plays together. While the D has had a pretty horrendous year other facets of the team p,lay have improved to to point where they are not only bumslayers getting an occasional win against the other cellar dwellers, but against some good teams.

 

[Bubba88]

We won't finish in the bottom 5. We won't win the lottery. If that is the case go into round 1, give young guys PO experience - including JC. If you are in there is always a slim chance to make a bit noise.
This will be more attractive for Panarin to come back or get a Stone or other good FA.

If you pick 10-14 or reach the 1st round, I take the POs.

 

[Malagahawks]

We won't finish in the bottom 5. We won't win the lottery. If that is the case go into round 1, give young guys PO experience - including JC. If you are in there is always a slim chance to make a bit noise.
This will be more attractive for Panarin to come back or get a Stone or other good FA.

If you pick 10-14 or reach the 1st round, I take the POs.

I tend to agree that having a team that qualifies for thd PO even at the WC level and being to still get a top 10-15 pick is still an attractive for Panarin.

 

[clydesdale line]

Can never just dismiss playoff experience regardless. Would be incredibly beneficial to a team who is mostly on the young side (DeBrincat, Strome, Gustafsson, Forsling, Perlini, Caggiula etc). Wouldn't expect a guy who prides himself on analytics to understand that though.

 

[deytookerjaabs]

If you tank, you also risk picking 3-10 spot too. Meanwhile there's a class of guys on this team who need to experience/figure out how to win in the NHL. If they sell hard & play like **** down the stretch then get stuck with a pick who isn't an instant impact or even worse underwhelms long term how would y'all feel?

I'm interested to see the future of FA movement in the coming years as it seems like there's a lot of places guys just won't re-sign once going to UFA.

If Saad/Strome can be consistent and play as well most nights as they have lately we've got a hell of a top 6 already. Add to that in the offseason then the depth starts to dangerously creep up. If Gus can keep truckin' and we get a good shut down fit for him while Murph/Dahlstrom seem to be holding their own against top lines, again the depth creeps up considering Joker/Mitchell/Boqvist.

It's clear that JC's vision is to get all 5 skaters on the ice heavily involved in the overall offensive game and from his ice time distribution it also looks like his ideas of forward matchups/scoring is different too.

 

[ColdSteel2]

We’ll just have to wait and see what happens. When you’re on a win streak, it seems like you’ll never lose again. Impressive seasons from Kane and Toews though, brings a lot of hope for the future knowing those guys are still at the top of their games.

Nevertheless, don’t do anything stupid thinking this team is a contender. If we’re not going to sell, just leave it alone or make some hockey trades that make us better now and going forward.

 

[plasmonresonance]

I have no idea how it'll play out but I don't think the Hawks will be looked at as easy out IF they do make the playoffs. For them to get to 87 pts that would mean they're playing at a 107 pt/season pace. And if you include the previous 4 wins that would mean they've played at a 114 pt pace (e.g. 22-9-2). They'd be one of the hottest teams in the league; peaking(?) at the opportune time.

 

[Enyaw]

A 4.5% chance at playoffs

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck Analytics Based Playoff & Cup Odds

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Hawks should just sell off the spare parts and stand pat with Saad, Gus, Anisimov, etc. If they can add some talent to the roster in the summer and with a full camp with JC and some confidence heading into the season they should be in the playoff mix next year.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Cam Ward and Delia aren’t taking this team anywhere

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Cam Ward and Delia aren’t taking this team anywhere

Commander Ward is taking us to Jack Hughes

 

[x Tame Impala]

The standings are so weird this year. The Hawks are still right there for a bottom 5 finish but they also aren’t too far out of a WC spot???

I still think they should tank and get Hughes/Kakko at all costs. This is the ONLY
year they’ll have a shot like this because next year they’ll be way too good