23 year old Ovechkin would be hitting 70 plus in this high scoring era we have entered. It wouldn’t be fair having him in the league
I don't know about that. Peak Ovechkin isn't all that much a better goal-scorer than current Ovechkin. Peak Ovechkin was a much better overall player, with better overall offense, hits, etc. But 70+ goals in todays league is a ton. Ovechkin had the one year at 65 goals, and beyond that only once in his whole career scored more than 53. Insanely consistent goal-scoring prime? Absolutely. But super high goal-scoring peak? That's not really his thing.
Maybe Ovechkin "perfect storms" into a season of ~70 goals in today's league, since he did score 65, but I don't think that's a given. And I also think that's probably near the top end, i wouldn't say 70+.
Reason why I like Matthews so far is that he's comparable to Ovi. Maybe he'll have an insane peak, maybe not - but it's really his consistency year to year in goals so far that impresses me. Clearly I'm not saying he's as good as prime Ovi - just in the same mold. A player like Laine in comparison - i don't see him ever having that consistency - he might have a high peak, than low years. But I find consistency particularly impressive, and also more predictable.
Exactly. How can you bet against him?
There's a lot of good reasons to bet against him.
1. He's older 35 is actually quite old for a hockey player. That's gotta catch up at some point.
2. The long layoff/different schedule. An optimist will say "at his age, that'll help him be refreshed and come back stronger". A pessimist will say "at his age, that'll completely mess him up and affect him negatively". Reality is, who knows, but it could go either way and is unpredictable. I think it's less a factor for younger guys, positive or negative.
3. The competition. Matthews is a really good goal-scorer, and consistent. Pastrnak too. Drai just had a historic season - and we know he can score goals. McDavid is talented enough to win a rocket. Laine still has the talent to explode. Etc. There's been many seasons in Ovi's career where competition didn't seem too high for goal-scoring, but this is arguably the highest it's ever been.
There's many reasons to bet on him too - I'm just saying it's not a given.