Does mcdavid win the Hart this year if the Oilers miss the playoffs?
- Thread starter centipede2233
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Gaudreau just scored more even strength points last season than McDavid in 2018, and only finished 4th in hart.
Even strength points is just a subset of overall offense. Not sure why some people exaggerate the importance of even strength.
jigglysquishy
Registered User
In a much much higher scoring year, even at even strength. McDavid was 27% ahead any other player in 2018 in even strength scoring. Huberdeau was 15%.
Even strength scoring gives additional insight into the quality of the player themselves. A stacked powerplay will throw additional points their way. A player doesn't control how many powerplays their team gets and they can vary massively between teams. An awful powerplay is beyond the scope of one player but can have a huge impact on their total points.
Even strength scoring isn't everything, but it also tells a story beyond just raw point totals. For a player to lead the league in even strength scoring AND total points but not win the Hart is without parallel.
Being elite at even strength and not on the powerplay is cause for concern. Same as the other way around. But looking at both total points and even strength points can help explain a player's effectiveness.
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Yes and he was awarded as such with the "Pearson" - which is supposed to be the best player award. Different groups vote on Hart and Pearson of course, but the Hart is supposed to be MVP, which isn't necessarily best player.
Taylor Hall was a head scratcher for me that year, but without digging extremely deep on everyone else, certainly a great case for him over McDavid. New Jersey was a bottom 3 team the year before, then they made the playoffs with Hall one of the top scorers in the league and also leaded #2 scorer on his team by 41 points (or 79%). McDavid's Oilers made the playoffs the year before and then missed that year (almost impossible to win in that scenario).
Voted yes as well but I also don't expect the Oilers to miss the playoffs even with their current troubles.
I mean if McDavid can score 130 + points this year (99 points in his last 67 games) and they miss due to Jack Campbell having a sub .890 save% I think voters will still give McDavid the Hart right?
Especially if his lead over a non Oiler is 20+ points.
Hockeyholic
Registered User
If the Oilers miss the playoffs, there's no doubt Holland will fire Woodcroft.
As for the poll, McDavid would need like 170 points and #2 have like 115 points or something. Unlikely this occurs.
As for the poll, McDavid would need like 170 points and #2 have like 115 points or something. Unlikely this occurs.
Ignoring every other variable, this is where I'd disagree a bit. For example....I think he has a better chance at MVP if he leads non-Oiler by 5pts and Drai by 20 than the other way around.
Sure I can see that point holding merit among some Hart voters but if the non Oiler is only 5 points behind him on a playoff team then the Hart would probably not go to McDavid.
Utter league dominace, regardless of what Draisatal does would be more important.
That being said I don't think the Oilers will miss the playoffs.
JackSlater
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I could see it going this way, though I also doubt that Edmonton misses the playoffs. McDavid dominates scoring as you said and Campbell is a sieve. The writers start writing stories about how McDavid won two Art Ross trophies while the sixth place scorer (Hall and Matthews) won the Hart, talk about a lack of respect after those two suspect decisions, then even draw parallels with Lemieux getting the trophy in 1988. Then McDavid wins a tight decision over whoever is the highest non-Oiler scorer on a top team.
This is why I suggested I ignored any other variable.
You can't have utter league dominance regardless of what Draisaital does. If McDavid has 148pts, Draisaitl at 110 for #2 and then 102 for #3....yes, league dominance, but if McDavid has 148pts, Draisaitl has 142pts.....then you could have the 2 dominate the league, but I wouldn't suggest McDavid utterly dominated the league......there were some years where Gretzky lead the league and #2 was one of his teammates, but they are still 75pts back.
Video Nasty
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It’s a lot more nuanced than a lot of the commenters so far want one to believe.
McDavid has some elements working in his favor, both personal play and nothing to do with him. to win the Hart even if the Oilers miss:
1. Campbell has been otherworldly bad. I think it’s easier for people to see a clear boogeyman holding him and the rest of his team back, rather than the myth of “not enough defense.” Campbell’s play and numbers paint a glaring obvious picture.
2. He’s actually won the Hart just once over the past 5 seasons. He sees nominations and top 5 finishes year in and year out, but extreme fatigue hasn’t set in yet for voters. I think a superhuman effort that still sees fall a couple of points shy in the end, particularly if the Oilers are winning most of their games down the stretch, while McDavid puts up tremendous numbers, and losing only when Campbell is letting in 5, 6, 7 goals can still convince enough to give the nod to a non-playoff candidate.
3. We’re roughly just 20% of the way, but there’s not really another clear compelling case yet to make someone ignore McDavid potting a goal per game and two points per game while generating 56% of his teams offense.
4. If Lemieux can win it during a season where his team missed the playoffs when all but 5 teams made it and Gretzky missed 16 games, there is precedence of it being done. Voters are fickle though and it was a long time ago, so possibly irrelevant.
Lastly, if he pots 70 goals/150 points, numbers not seen in decades, I think it’s the kind of effort that will see recognition regardless.
In the end, it would just be easier on the people who grunt “win good, loss bad” to see McDavid lead the league with 55+ goals/130+ points while the Oilers finish with any playoff berth.
McDavid has some elements working in his favor, both personal play and nothing to do with him. to win the Hart even if the Oilers miss:
1. Campbell has been otherworldly bad. I think it’s easier for people to see a clear boogeyman holding him and the rest of his team back, rather than the myth of “not enough defense.” Campbell’s play and numbers paint a glaring obvious picture.
2. He’s actually won the Hart just once over the past 5 seasons. He sees nominations and top 5 finishes year in and year out, but extreme fatigue hasn’t set in yet for voters. I think a superhuman effort that still sees fall a couple of points shy in the end, particularly if the Oilers are winning most of their games down the stretch, while McDavid puts up tremendous numbers, and losing only when Campbell is letting in 5, 6, 7 goals can still convince enough to give the nod to a non-playoff candidate.
3. We’re roughly just 20% of the way, but there’s not really another clear compelling case yet to make someone ignore McDavid potting a goal per game and two points per game while generating 56% of his teams offense.
4. If Lemieux can win it during a season where his team missed the playoffs when all but 5 teams made it and Gretzky missed 16 games, there is precedence of it being done. Voters are fickle though and it was a long time ago, so possibly irrelevant.
Lastly, if he pots 70 goals/150 points, numbers not seen in decades, I think it’s the kind of effort that will see recognition regardless.
In the end, it would just be easier on the people who grunt “win good, loss bad” to see McDavid lead the league with 55+ goals/130+ points while the Oilers finish with any playoff berth.
I kind of disagree that there isn’t a compelling case for anyone else. Let me introduce you to Pasternak, on the hottest team carrying a bruins team with no Marchand and mcavoy to start the year. It’s a pretty nice narrative for a hart vote thus far
I think hall had a solid case still think mack should have won it though but if you miss the playoffs it basically disqualifies you
Video Nasty
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I won’t argue with Pasta being a top alternate candidate. Good call.
Cheers. Yeah we will have to see how it plays out but I think he will be the “it” guy this year…
This is the only year you could argue McDavid was really robbed of the Hart.
I think if he scores 60+ and 130+ he gets it because I don't see anyone else reaching 120 points and anywhere close to 60 goals unless Matthews really heats up from here on out and Draisaitl won't win it unless he outscores everyone including McDavid. I think this year he takes it in a clean sweep but the race for the Rocket may be close by the end of the season.
JaegerDice
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No.
He would still win the Lindsay as the BEST player, but he would not with the MVP.
To win MVP you must present value towards something. If the Oilers miss the playoffs, what is McDavid’s value? They would have missed the playoffs by even more without him? That’s not compelling.
If the only value you provide is a smaller gap between your team and success, that’s not great value. The team fails both ways, with or without you.
He would still win the Lindsay as the BEST player, but he would not with the MVP.
To win MVP you must present value towards something. If the Oilers miss the playoffs, what is McDavid’s value? They would have missed the playoffs by even more without him? That’s not compelling.
If the only value you provide is a smaller gap between your team and success, that’s not great value. The team fails both ways, with or without you.
You mean the year Hall won it? Why? Voters certainly disagreed big time....he wasn't even top-4 in voting. A non-playoff guy has only won the award 3 times in history and 2 of those times were pretty ridiculous picks. He would have had to done something pretty awesome to overcome that and there is no way that would have been the year.
KoozNetsOff 92
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Brett Hull scored 70 goals and was a hart finalist the previous year, how exactly was he a "new kid on the block"? Benn wasn't even top 10 in hart voting the year he won the ross.
Hull was a new kid, cause he was listening to new kids on the block!
Probably not. There are many voters who won't place a player at the top of the MVP ballot if they don't make the playoffs. Their mind is made up on that criteria. And there will always be at least one other player who has a legit case and did make the playoffs.
