Does Expansion Increase or Dilute the NHL's Talent Pool?

[Fordy]

much like qbs in the nfl, there just aren't any elite goalies right now

 

[BraveCanadian]

Yes, of course it dilutes it when you are adding top level spots in an increasingly exclusive sport

 

[Fatass]

Imagine the types of games we would see if the Blume of talent was what we have now but only 12 teams. All players would be skilled, fast, and aggressive. Of course adding more teams dilutes the talent.

 

[tarheelhockey]

But I don't think that's the only measurement, with expansion a team's worth of guys theoretically moves up to the NHL level, and same to the AHL, ECHL etc. Players being able to play at higher levels when they wouldn't have otherwise had the opportunity is bound to result in some or most of those players improving

Perhaps it benefits those specific individual players, though it has to be noted that the guys getting those opportunities are those who previously would not have been good enough to play in the NHL. That’s the definition of diluting the league. For it to be otherwise, the average player being called up would need to become better than the average NHL’er (i.e. a top 6 forward or top 3 defenseman) and we all know that ain’t happening.

At the AHL level, you’re taking away the 20 best players and replacing them with 20 former ECHL players. Does this make the league more talented? Definitely no.

 

[Jared Dunn]

Perhaps it benefits those specific individual players, though it has to be noted that the guys getting those opportunities are those who previously would not have been good enough to play in the NHL. That’s the definition of diluting the league. For it to be otherwise, the average player being called up would need to become better than the average NHL’er (i.e. a top 6 forward or top 3 defenseman) and we all know that ain’t happening.

At the AHL level, you’re taking away the 20 best players and replacing them with 20 former ECHL players. Does this make the league more talented? Definitely no.

But I think my point about the Golden Knights applies here, outside of the truly elite franchise level players, I feel like the margin is often so thin between other players. I think there's a lot of guys who have definitely been good enough to play in the NHL and their situation gets in the way, or guys playing lower in the lineup that could effectively step into a top six or top 4 role

I guess I wouldn't argue that it increases the pool though, but I don't think the dilution would be really noticeable or impactful unless it was like 5 or more teams at a time

 

[tarheelhockey]

But I think my point about the Golden Knights applies here, outside of the truly elite franchise level players, I feel like the margin is often so thin between other players. I think there's a lot of guys who have definitely been good enough to play in the NHL and their situation gets in the way, or guys playing lower in the lineup that could effectively step into a top six or top 4 role

I guess I wouldn't argue that it increases the pool though, but I don't think the dilution would be really noticeable or impactful unless it was like 5 or more teams at a time

It’s not immediately noticeable partly because of how the changes are administered. We get the expansion draft which consists of a lot of shenanigans with players who wouldn’t normally be on the team anyway, such as when a team sends a draft pick to ensure a scrub gets chosen. So it’s not like everyone suddenly loses their 20th best player, it’s more like a series of dominoes start falling which will take years to produce a real conclusion. And then the expansion team, which in most cases is a fairly bad squad composed of cast-offs, serves as a sort of containment area for the effect of dilution. They might inflate their opponents’ stats a bit, but in general everyone carries on with more-or-less the roster they always expected to have.

It’s not till the expansion team starts acquiring real talent that the impact starts to really spread — but even at that, it’s kind of abstract and not really talked about. Who would Matty Beniers and Joey Daccord be playing for if Seattle didn’t exist? Nobody knows, so we don’t really think about it much. But if we had an actual definitive answer, say we knew that the Blue Jackets would moved up and gotten Beniers, then there would be a much more tangible feeling that Columbus is a worse team because of Seattle’s presence. And there would probably be some resentment attached to that.

It looks like the current expansion era, starting with Vegas, will result in 4 teams being added over the course of about a decade. We won’t really feel the sting of that in real-time, but ask a team like Detroit or Ottawa how they’d feel about adding 4 current players from other teams for free. Framing it that way makes the dilution effect easier to conceptualize.