Value of: Dobson - Question for Sharks

[Glorydays22]

Just curious, what would shark fans be willing to give the Isles for Dobson. Isles rather keep him, but I'm just curious of his value with a team like the Sharks. I know you want to upgrade defense

Just for context, isles would not be looking to move the #1 overall. If that helps with value.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I’ve seen this movie before.

Isles fans: Dobson would be a great fit for the Sharks, what would you give?
Sharks fans: Given his contract situation and inconsistent play, we aren’t interested in giving up premium assets for him unless we had an extension that isn’t a wild overpayment in place.
Most Isles fans: Understandable, have a great day.
One or two insane Isles fans: Dobson is a 24 year old 6’4” 70-point RHD with Norris votes to his name, he is easily worth #2 overall or Eklund or Dickinson++.
One or two insane Sharks fans: Dobson is a garbage player who lost his job to Tony f***ing DeAngelo, I wouldn’t give up a 3rd round pick for him.
Insane Isles fans: Rabble rabble
Insane Sharks fans: Rabble rabble

Sound about right?

 

[matt trick]

Let's say hypothetically he's willing to extend 8 years $9M per. If he's not open to signing a contract with SJ (possible), his value would be incredibly diminished.

Even signed, I'm not giving up Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, Dickinson, or #2 for Dobson. He's a very offensive good d-man and a RHD we need desperately. However, his defensive game and production fall off make me uncomfortable.

I'd definitely move Musty/Bystedt/Muk, Dallas 1st, Edmonton 1st, and a couple of the 4 2nds we have this year or next. I'd strongly consider a deal with Eklund (but not as many pieces).

If we were talking Faber, Seider, Harley, or even Lacombe, I'd give up #2 (and obviously several of the other pieces for the first three). I just don't value Dobson as highly because of his defensive game.

*Edit, originally said he's a very offensive d-man, which was unintentional (and funny) but I've edited it.

 

[Glorydays22]

I’ve seen this movie before.

Isles fans: Dobson would be a great fit for the Sharks, what would you give?
Sharks fans: Given his contract situation and inconsistent play, we aren’t interested in giving up premium assets for him unless we had an extension that isn’t a wild overpayment in place.
Most Isles fans: Understandable, have a great day.
One or two insane Isles fans: Dobson is a 24 year old 6’4” 70-point RHD with Norris votes to his name, he is easily worth #2 overall or Eklund or Dickinson++.
One or two insane Sharks fans: Dobson is a garbage player who lost his job to Tony f***ing DeAngelo, I wouldn’t give up a 3rd round pick for him.
Insane Isles fans: Rabble rabble
Insane Sharks fans: Rabble rabble

Sound about right?

for me as an isles fan...there is no wrong or right answer. I'm honestly just curious. I don't have any pie in the sky thoughts. I know some of my isles fans went crazy on value. Just gauging things.

 

[Glorydays22]

Let's say hypothetically he's willing to extend 8 years $9M per. If he's not open to signing a contract with SJ (possible), his value would be incredibly diminished.

Even signed, I'm not giving up Celebrini, Smith, Askarov, Dickinson, or #2 for Dobson. He's a very offensive good d-man and a RHD we need desperately. However, his defensive game and production fall off make me uncomfortable.

I'd definitely move Musty/Bystedt/Muk, Dallas 1st, Edmonton 1st, and a couple of the 4 2nds we have this year or next. I'd strongly consider a deal with Eklund (but not as many pieces).

If we were talking Faber, Seider, Harley, or even Lacombe, I'd give up #2 (and obviously several of the other pieces for the first three). I just don't value Dobson as highly because of his defensive game.

*Edit, originally said he's a very offensive d-man, which was unintentional (and funny) but I've edited it.

Thank you, I appreciate your feedback...

 

[Juxtaposer]

for me as an isles fan...there is no wrong or right answer. I'm honestly just curious. I don't have any pie in the sky thoughts. I know some of my isles fans went crazy on value. Just gauging things.

Sure, I’m just saying that I think we’ve discussed this enough in the last couple months.

If you want a serious answer, here’s my perspective:

The fact that Dobson can insist upon getting a $10Mx8 year contract or threaten to take his QO or elect arbitration to send himself straight to UFA dramatically impacts his value to me. Dobson at $7.5-8M long-term has a ton more value than Dobson at $9.5-10M, which I think his numbers alone justify in this market with a rising cap. I personally don’t think Dobson is or ever will be a true #1D, and I don’t believe in paying #2 defensemen more than $8M, even very good ones. His lack of defensive acumen and physicality combined with his casual playstyle concern me.

For those reasons, I would not trade our core or potential core pieces. That includes the obvious (Celebrini, Smith) and the second tier or unproven guys (Eklund, Dickinson, #2 overall, Askarov, and maybe even Chernyshov) for him. If and only if he came with a great long-term extension like $7.5Mx8 years, then I would be willing to offer Eklund straight-across, but that isn’t going to happen. Without a good-value contract extension in place, the most I’d offer is a package of lesser assets like Musty, Bystedt, Cagnoni, Dallas 1st, SJ 2nd, Thrun, Ferraro, Graf, that sort of thing.

And I completely understand why Isles fans wouldn’t be happy with that, but that’s how trades always are for guys in Dobson’s situation. Meier got a package (Zetterlund, Mukhamadullin, 1st, 2nd), Burns got a package (Setoguchi, Coyle, 1st), and that’s the sort of thing I would offer for Dobson. Guys in his situation do not return premium assets like Isles fans want.

Ergo, I simply don’t think there’s anything left to discuss.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

On his pod, Seravalli said that he heard that Dobson's ask was 11.



~39:25 timestamp

 

[Glorydays22]

Sure, I’m just saying that I think we’ve discussed this enough in the last couple months.

If you want a serious answer, here’s my perspective:

The fact that Dobson can insist upon getting a $10Mx8 year contract or threaten to take his QO or elect arbitration to send himself straight to UFA dramatically impacts his value to me. Dobson at $7.5-8M long-term has a ton more value than Dobson at $9.5-10M, which I think his numbers alone justify in this market with a rising cap. I personally don’t think Dobson is or ever will be a true #1D, and I don’t believe in paying #2 defensemen more than $8M, even very good ones. His lack of defensive acumen and physicality combined with his casual playstyle concern me.

For those reasons, I would not trade our core or potential core pieces. That includes the obvious (Celebrini, Smith) and the second tier or unproven guys (Eklund, Dickinson, #2 overall, Askarov, and maybe even Chernyshov) for him. If and only if he came with a great long-term extension like $7.5Mx8 years, then I would be willing to offer Eklund straight-across, but that isn’t going to happen. Without a good-value contract extension in place, the most I’d offer is a package of lesser assets like Musty, Bystedt, Cagnoni, Dallas 1st, SJ 2nd, Thrun, Ferraro, Graf, that sort of thing.

And I completely understand why Isles fans wouldn’t be happy with that, but that’s how trades always are for guys in Dobson’s situation. Meier got a package (Zetterlund, Mukhamadullin, 1st, 2nd), Burns got a package (Setoguchi, Coyle, 1st), and that’s the sort of thing I would offer for Dobson. Guys in his situation do not return premium assets like Isles fans want.

Ergo, I simply don’t think there’s anything left to discuss.

great feedback and comparisons....thanks.

This is a key offseason for us. So many decisions - #1 overall, re-signing or moving Dobson and Romanov. We like to move guys like Pelech (him first) or Pulock. We know Darche will try to move guys like Pageau, Lee, Cizkas at the TDL... Darche has to get the AHL fixed ASAP..

 

[Glorydays22]

On his pod, Seravalli said that he heard that Dobson's ask was 11.



~39:25 timestamp

Yeah I saw that, to me that means he would settle for 9-9.5M long term. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

 

[BillR10]

I’ve seen this movie before.

Isles fans: Dobson would be a great fit for the Sharks, what would you give?
Sharks fans: Given his contract situation and inconsistent play, we aren’t interested in giving up premium assets for him unless we had an extension that isn’t a wild overpayment in place.
Most Isles fans: Understandable, have a great day.
One or two insane Isles fans: Dobson is a 24 year old 6’4” 70-point RHD with Norris votes to his name, he is easily worth #2 overall or Eklund or Dickinson++.
One or two insane Sharks fans: Dobson is a garbage player who lost his job to Tony f***ing DeAngelo, I wouldn’t give up a 3rd round pick for him.
Insane Isles fans: Rabble rabble
Insane Sharks fans: Rabble rabble

Sound about right?

Pretty accurate summary of the last Dobson to SJ thread tbh.

My opinion. Until his long term contract demands come to light, you can pretty much count the sharks out of bidding what Islander fans are going to want. Sharks are in no position to add rentals. His future value is what the sharks would be bidding on and can't judge that until his demands come out

 

[Glorydays22]

Pretty accurate summary of the last Dobson to SJ thread tbh.

My opinion. Until his long term contract demands come to light, you can pretty much count the sharks out of bidding what Islander fans are going to want. Sharks are in no position to add rentals. His future value is what the sharks would be bidding on and can't judge that until his demands come out

Understandable. My guess, he will get 9.5M long term deal. He wants 11M but that's his high starting point. He won't get more than Evan Bouchard who will likely get 10.5-11M

 

[Juxtaposer]

On his pod, Seravalli said that he heard that Dobson's ask was 11.



~39:25 timestamp

Well, that explains the timing of this thread being made.

Zero interest in this guy if he thinks he’s worth anything close to $11M.

 

[Glorydays22]

Well, that explains the timing of this thread being made.

Zero interest in this guy if he thinks he’s worth anything close to $11M.

He won't get that, stats don't show it. and he won't get more than Evan Bouchard. So it's most likely a 9-9.5M deal.

 

[Juxtaposer]

He won't get that, stats don't show it. and he won't get more than Evan Bouchard. So it's most likely a 9-9.5M deal.

I understand how negotiating works. I don’t want Dobson at $9.5M either.

 

[Glorydays22]

I understand how negotiating works. I don’t want Dobson at $9.5M either.

understandable.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Yeah I saw that, to me that means he would settle for 9-9.5M long term. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

That's a pretty big drop. The AFP projection is $10.25x8. Not sure if he's part of the 2026 or 2027 UFA class (35 total GP in a slide year, but it was Covid-shortened), but either way, he has leverage.

 

[Glorydays22]

That's a pretty big drop. The AFP projection is $10.25x8. Not sure if he's part of the 2026 or 2027 UFA class (35 total GP in a slide year, but it was Covid-shortened), but either way, he has leverage.

The reason I say that...Bouchard will get 11M and he just had 67 and 82 pts the last 2 years. Dobson is coming off a bad year at 39 and last year 70 pts. So to me, 10M is too much...my guess it's 9.5M

But who knows anymore. lol