Do You Think The Oilers Have Done Enough To Help McDrai Win The Cup?

[bambamcam4ever]

It took 5 minutes to look that up it's not terribly hard. There's a thing called Google and Hockey Reference these days.

I don't even agree with your second point. I don't think Crosby would get that team that McDavid was on last season to a Cup Final even in his prime.

We saw Crosby when MAF was off his game for a few years and the Penguins routinely got beat in round 1 or round 2, take away the goaltending and Crosby would lose in round 2/3, especially with Draisaitl injured. He did so even with Malkin in years where he didn't have MAF or Murray holding the fort.

Pittsburgh has a huge advantage in goaltending and everyone knows it, you're not to even convince Stuart Skinner's mom let alone anyone on this board that he is a MAF tier goaltender.

Prior to his injuries, Murray was an amazing goalie too especially in big games.

The Oilers never received goaltending as bad as Fleury was from 2010-2013. And the Penguins were outcoached under Bylsma, especially in 2012 and 2013, to a degree that is almost never seen at the NHL level. No player could have overcome that.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

The fact that you had to write a short story to try to dismiss Crosby and Malkin's success is very telling.

Crosby would give any of McDavid's teams a better chance, he is the better all around player and a proven winner at every level he has played.

Yep. This has played out over their entire lives. McDavid has never won a championship outside of a 2 week all star tournament in the last 15 years (and maybe even farther back, I can't find any more info). Crosby has won at least one championship with every team he's played on since he was 9. Even setting aside the Oilers, why couldn't Connor win in juniors? Why couldn't he win in the 2016 WCOH? Why couldn't he win before major junior? It really seems like his impact towards winning is less than his point totals would indicate.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Staal and Gonchar aren't chopped liver. Orpik and Scuderi weren't half bad either, not world beaters but certainly not a couple of nobodies. Kunitz was decent too.

Kunitz was in the middle of a 1 goal in 40 games streak in the 2009 playoffs. The Penguins still won.

But the other players bring up a good point. 4 of the 6 Dmen on that Penguins team were completely offensively inept. Orpik, Gill, Scuderi, and Eaton. The latter 3 were historically bad offensively. Excluding fighters/goons, they are all in the bottom 5 in NHL history in career points per game with GP minimums of 1100, 700, and 600 respectively.

So the team composition is completely different. The Oilers structure their roster to give McDavid the best possible chance to put up points. In the last playoffs he was almost always with Bouchard and Ekholm, with his wingers a mixture of Hyman, RNH, and Draisaitl. Crosby and Malkin had much less help around them yet they still won. Those two singlehandedly carried the Penguins to a cup.

 

[Soundwave]

The Oilers never received goaltending as bad as Fleury was from 2010-2013. And the Penguins were outcoached under Bylsma, especially in 2012 and 2013, to a degree that is almost never seen at the NHL level. No player could have overcome that.

Stuart Skinner through like two different playoff years and multiple playoff rounds had the lowest save percentage for a starter in the modern era of the NHL, he was trending worse than Dan Cloutier, lol. There were threads about this on this forum.

Thread 'Stuart Skinner worst playoff sv% since Cloutier.'

May 13, 2024

Stuart Skinner, who is sporting a career .881 playoff sv%, is currently only ahead of one goalie in playoff sv% with minimum 20 games played (Dan Cloutier) who didn't play in the 1980's. Dan Cloutier is often regarded as one of if not the worst playoff performing goalies of all time. Does Skinner surpass him as the worst playoff goalie of the modern era?

• McFlyingV
• Replies: 379
• Forum: National Hockey League Talk

• 
• 
• 

But yes so you acknowledge this isn't f***ing basketball and you need goaltending and other team elements to win, which everyone already knows. You don't just win a Cup with two forwards, Pittsburgh wasn't able to do that either.

Crosby needed a lot of help to win and anytime he got poor goaltending he was out in round 1 or 2 generally.

 

[Soundwave]

You can't "single-handedly" carry a team to a Cup while you were ass in the Finals.

Crosby was awful in the 2009 Finals, and they still won and all, but to say "two guys won them a Cup" is ridiculous.

If LeBron James won an NBA Finals while being maybe the 5th best player in the series averaging like 15 ppg or something he would get roasted non-stop for it even if they won.

 

[daver]

Are you saying Crosby would give the Oilers more of a chance in McDavid’s place?. That could only be true in 2017 and 2021.


Prime Crosby is not creating a larger all round impact than McDavid for the Oilers in 2020, 2022, 2023, 2024.

McDavid (season 5-9: age 23-27) playoff stats: points/games/ppg
——————————————
2020: 9p/4g=2.25ppg
2021: 4/4=1
2022: 33/16=2.0625
2023: 20/12=1.667
2024: 42/25=1.68

Crosby (season 5-9; age 23-27) playoff stats: points/games/points per game
——————————————
2009-2010: 19p/13g=1.462 ppg
2011/2012: 8/6=1.333
2012-2013: 15/14=1.0714
2013-2014: 9/13=0.692

Crosby’s final runs:
points/games/points per game
—————————————-
Crosby 2008: 27/20=1.35
Crosby 2009: 31/24=1.29
Crosby 2016: 19/24‎ = 0.792
Crosby 2017: 27/24‎ = 1.125

McDavid 2024 net points per game difference vs Crosby final runs(2008, 2009, 2016, 2017).
—————————————
2008: 1.68-1.35=0.33
2009: 1.68-1.29=0.39
2016: 1.68-0.792=0.888
2017: 1.68-1.125=0.555

I don’t see Crosby making up such a difference defensively. I guess this is where we disagree.

Crosby most certainly doesn’t reach those numbers in respective years, and his defense won’t make up for it. Remember, Crosby’s offensive peak and defensive peak never coincided. Unless you’re saying 87 was a lockdown defender in 09-14 as well?. If you combine Yzerman’s offensive peak in 88-89(155 point season) with his defensive peak years later, you might create the most dominant player of all time, but that’s not how things work. In other words, Oilers do not get 11-13 Crosby offense and his 16-18 defense at once, that’s unrealistic.


Speaking of defense, Penguin fans always create the narrative that Crosby was a massive difference maker in his own end without bringing up any statistical evidence. It’s always “Crosby is a Selke level defender and you should believe me”. I can create a compilation of his defensive lapses just like I could make one for McDavid.


Despite being a bit overrated on that end, to me Crosby is still a better defender than McDavid. Yet that gap isn’t enough to close the offense gap between McDavid’s insane playoff performances in those years mentioned above. For example, you love to use +-, which asks the question how would Crosby outperform McDavid +15 in 22, and +12 in 24?. I believe individual defense of one player isn’t nearly as valuable as the overall team defensive structure of a 5 man unit anyway, but that’s off topic.

Different eras means different scoring environments. Case in point:

The 2022 Oilers had the clear worst GAA (3.69) for a conference finalist in the last 30 years. Why? Because they were going full out offence with a loaded first line. Where did McDavid's and Drai's historic offensive output get them? It got them a very mediocre 8 wins.

The Pens GAA in 2008 was very good (2.15) as they played a much more balanced game despite having two of the top three offensive players in the game. I am sure they would have put up better numbers if they loaded up one line and tried to outgun teams but it's doubtful they would have had the same success.

Full marks to McDavid in 2024. I think his WCF was the best series of his career as he carried his own line. There is a good debate to be had whether that run was better than Crosby's 2009 run. Crosby was better thru three rounds, McDavid was better in the SCF but not the extent that his raw numbers indicate. He didn't produce until the Oilers were in a hole that was pretty much guaranteed a series loss. I would say his SCF was similar to Crosby's in 2008; very good but not quite good enough.

Nor do Crosby's numbers indicate his value in the 2009 SCF as Detroit rolled the dice on containing him with a GOAT d-man, and arguably the best two all around forwards in the game at the time.

I don't think McDavid's legacy will be affected much without a Cup but there are players whose legacies are enhanced with championships (Richard, Beliveau, Messier). I see McDavid as a clear Top 10ish player at this point of his career but it is reasonable to place him behind other players who were on the same tier as him ahead if they have an air of a champion.

 

[daver]

Crosby needed a lot of help to win and anytime he got poor goaltending he was out in round 1 or 2 generally.

There is poor goaltending due to the goalie and then there is poor goaltending due to the team in front of them.

 

[sbhnur]

Chiarelli essentially butchered the first 4 years of Mcdavids career that Holland had to practically rebuild the team to get them where they are today. The Oilers had to spend the first few years under shill and learning how to win in the playoffs.

Yeah, these are the years that were lost in the process. Even worse they had to fix so many things before having a competitive roster at all. Today they could win the cup, but the reason is McDrai, most other parts are very subpar and replaceable.
Nurse contract is also a big factor to overcome.